The Pointing Thread

Nice race up at Perth - win and place lay of Cobbler's Hill, AJM uses these to get horses a mark - only danger is this isn't a great race but then Cobbler's isn't a great horse, in fact I'd say it's inexperienced and moderate.

Martin
 
Great call Martin, stone cold last.

Would you have place laid it at 4/1 though ?. RP forecast SP was 6/5 so the market must be following your posts ;)
 
Last edited:
I made it a 20's shot to win the race, 4's probably a bit short to place - thankfully could lay a lot shorter earlier in the day.

Martin
 
Last edited:
Off to Fontwell in a few minutes so here are my thoughts on the card tonight:

17:15
Tricky contest – best value lies with Showman at 33/1, he won twice earlier in the year and stays well. The front four in the betting all have stronger form than Marc Dilworth’s gelding but Gunmoney (jockey), Crazy Eyes (jockey) and Supreme Regime (strength of form) all have negatives about them. I would be keen to side with Showman in match bets with the likes of Peyekashe, Pastek, Country Foolery and Wor Rom.

17:45
The worst race of the night quality wise – I made Mizen Mix a shade of odds-on and he’d have to be the NAP. I’m Not Telling showed fair enough form under rules in the Summer and a jockey changed helped him for his win last time out, he has decent form and is the most likely to chase Mizen Mix home. Would be keen to oppose Hill Forts Gloria who has very poor form and has struggled to win thus far in her career. The best way would appear to be a place lay of her and also any odds on Tompatpeg or Ashanti Moon beating her in a match should also be taken.

18:15
The money for the front two isn’t too surprising given Bedrock Fred’s raced pretty much exclusively RH in his career and most of the others aren’t up to much. Preference is for Galbally King given it has a jockey on while John Daniell doesn’t, would be keen to side with GK in the match bets against the favourite.

18:50
Start Royal is highly likely to be the smallest horse featured on the card tonight, he’s worth opposing over this staying trip with Masked Man. Sarah Ashby isn’t very experienced but she’s won the last twice she’s ridden Masked Man and at 4/1 he looks value against the favourite. Benheir had looked gone prior to a remote second at Fakenham last time out and it’s hard to see why there’s folk backing him, I’d be opposing him with Kornati Kid for the match bets who has a good young jockey in the saddle.

19:25
There’s little to separate the top three in the betting here IMHO and it’s just a shame we don’t have the three places on offer, Foundry Square has been in and out form wise in the past and as such he’s worth laying at odds-on in this.

19:55
I made Champagne Rosie odds-on for this, Charlotte Davies’ charge is flying at home and the top weight should find it difficult to give weight away to her rival, of the others none of them look up to much and it’s hard to see any of them finishing within 20 lengths of the front two.

20:25
What Of It won this last year under his former jockey and he looks value to take this years renewal at 25/1 for Lucy Docker. He should have come on for his spin out at Ludlow last month and though this is a stronger race there’s a good case to be made for opposing Utopian on the grounds of the jockey and Warwickshire as he hits his fences pretty hard at times of those towards the head of the market. Pinsandneedles has had minimal trying runs this season but even in those he hasn’t looked like a horse who’d want to drop back in trip so surprised to see money for him and I’d be looking at the match bet markets to oppose Pinsandneedles with What Of It.

Going to have at least two Lucky 15’s on the action tonight:

Lucky 15 E/W
16:55 (Tipperary) Madoun @ 12/1 – didn’t stay the trip in points but showed up well on his debut at Limerick until falling at the second last, with a JP fav for Tony Martin he’s well worth taking e/w in the multiple.
17:15 Showman @ 33/1
18:50 Masked Man @ 4/1
20:25 What Of It @ 25/1

Lucky 15 2
17:45 Mizen Mix @ 2/1
18:50 Masked Man @ 4/1
19:25 Rear Gunner @ 11/2
19:55 Champagne Rosie @ 11/8

Pressing the acc on both and fingers crossed for a highly profitable night.


Jacks Lastchance in the second should still be a maiden but that's another matter.


Martin
 
After the farce at Fontwell today's Hunter Chase at Cartmel looks far more inspiring.

Main bet is on Brother Mark @ 11/10 to beat Another Dark Rum, I make it more like a 4/9 shot as ADR really isn't all that good despite the one semi-ok run at Catterick earlier in the season. Brother Mark is an in form horse with a decent young pilot up, Hand Act Or Part is the dark horse on his Spring 2013 form and at 40's+ he would be worth a couple of quid e/w if the ground dries out.

Martin
 
Have you seen our old horse Ballyvesey running in the Points at all Martin?. I see he was entered under rules last week but didn't run?Could have won the big one given the chance
 
Haven't seen much of Ballyvesey myself but saw No Panic at Kingston Blount on Sunday - he's doing a good job teaching Tom(?) Brockett about race riding and the like and sure he'd have been much more competitive in his youth, still looks very well though :)

Martin
 
Any thoughts on the Cartmel HC today Martin? How does Drom's point form stack up ratings wise this year?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Drom's form is good but he struggled to win on his most recent outing.

I backed Dica last time out and he was given no ride at all by his moderate owner/rider/trainer - he'd be my idea of the winner though think Penang Island is probably overpriced too.

Martin
 
No problem Dan :)

Another toughish Hunter Chase today with Oscar Time looking as close to a good thing as you can get, 13/2 about Working Title W/O the favourite with VC looks a decent bet though. Clearly the second best horse in the race and though slightly concerning that he's not done it over fences in recent years (in fact only won once over them and that was in 2009) he looks capable of going well here. Wouldn't worry about him pulling up LTO as he wouldn't stay 3m4f in a horsebox and Working Title should appreciate the drop in trip here.

Martin
 
18:50 Cottage Oak @ 8/1 - Saw off Palypso De Creek last time out on what appeared to be him bouncing back to something like his best, has a big weight to carry but Jane Williams is a top jockey and the pair should be tough to beat in this.

19:20 Following Dreams @ 11/1 - Would ideally like more rain but ground was given as soft last night, dry night and a bit of rain earlier but dry since and they've made the ground good g/s in places. Can't have that and should be more cut than they're saying which will suit this horse as he needs the ground soft, has a top jockey up and looks set go well here.

20:25 Start Royal @ 14/1 - Substandard renewal of this and the selection proved he stays this trip at Fontwell last time out, fav looks vulnerable and Alan Hill's horses have been going well of late (on the scoresheet at Kingston Blount on Sunday).

Martin
 
Off to Umberleigh this weekend Martin - any tips gratefully accepted! Hopefully ground won't be too hard and the field sizes will be bigger than the usual two or three!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
First Hunter Chase of the season tomorrow - looks a cracker too for all it will be one of the hardest to price up all year.

Quick look would suggest that there's a horse who's yet to finish outside the frame on soft or heavy ground who could be a big price :)

Martin
 
Last edited:
Back
Top