The Pointing Thread

Sorry Benny - I've been away the past week(ish).

Normal service should be resumed tomorrow - touch wood we get to oppose an odds-on jolly again.

Martin
 
It was very wet down there David - there were only three entries so we thought we'd take our chance, then the Smyly horse was declared too so we ended up in a five horse race.

De Clare Man of Rose Grissell's unseated early on so our boy ran his usual race but the ground was too soft for him, he was beaten about 25 lengths in the end by the useful looking Minerfortyniner and Spiritofchartwell. He's entered for Saturday at Charing where he won last year and we had been hoping for a small field and fast ground.

De Clare Man, Simonsruudt (Simonsig's brother), Miss Alice Jones and a few other useful horses are entered too and our jockey has one of his own in (first runner as a trainer) so will be riding that, think we've somebody else lined up but need to confirm it with the lads. Hoping the ground dries up some and relief to know that it's unlikely that Simonsruudt and MAJ will both run.

De Waiting Game is entered on Monday in a similar race at Aldington - he won on the card last year but it's another with plenty of entries in and having unseated his rider the last twice we're hoping for a clear round, our usual jockey for him is back from injury now so hoping to have her up if he runs.

Remind Me Later is the very useful pointer I saw last year at Northaw, he bolted up then and off a mark of 110 there's a very strong possibility he'll do the same tomorrow at Exeter in the 16:45.

I've had the single and an e/w double with Joker Choker who was caught out of his ground at Leicester on his return to action, he's a proper 2-2 1/2m HCer and would have gone close against Utopian last year but for falling. Tataniano hasn't run well for years and should be at least 10/1 and last years winner Shrewd Investment has shown very little thus far in 2015, Aerial the one to beat but Joker Choker is great value at circa 14/1 and likely bigger in the morning if they keep hammering Aerial.

Martin
 
Top man Martin. This one was worthy of the will win thread. I've buried it as if it were on there.

Let's hope the trainer knows it's off...
 
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Thanks Martin, I've buried this one too. If my basketball bet wins tonight I'll have the winnings on as well.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
No worries lads - followed you in on the NBA. May be one at 100's+ worth backing tomorrow too but will post when it's drifted sufficiently.

Martin
 
jft2005 said:
From a Hunter Chase service I subscribe too;

So after a few days off we are back in hunter chase action in Wales this afternoon and hopefully we can continue where we left off last week.Canshetrain was a fair 2nd last time out, but ran a stinker the time before and the 3rd on seasonal debut wasn't in a great contest. Has a good jockey though and this race isn't exactly strong.
Loch Ard would be a cert here if getting anywhere near his hurdling form in Ireland for Willie Mullins. The problem is he ran really badly in both pointing starts last season. The jockey change might help a little bit, but he is impossible to back on those pointing efforts.
Patricktom Boru made a winning seasonal debut earlier this month, but it wasn't much of a contest especially given the odds on favourite ran poorly. To be fair in this field he holds solid claims and has proven himself to be useful in the pointing field and did beat Mr Mercurial last season. He ran all right in a Leicester hunter chase last season and the drop in trip might help him especially based on his Chepstow run where he got tired. The main problem though is the ground and I feel conditions might be too testing for him, especially given how bad Ffos Las can be.
The Old Pretender is clearly hard to train and although he is an open winner the races weren't overly strong and he has a squiggle next to his name as well. He also wasn't at his best when last seen over 2 years ago. It would be some training performance for him to win this.
I really can't believe the price of Sweet Like You. Granted she won her maiden well 11 days ago, but that was only a maiden victory and she has loads to find on form. This isn't a strong heat, but even so backing maiden winners against Open winners is not something I would suggest. Her rating isn't even that high.
The one I haven't mentioned out of those with some sort of chance is the favourite Catspan and this looks this ideal race to land his first hunter chase win. Having seen him pull up at Didmarton last March his close 2nd at Chepstow really surprised me. He didn't really follow that up at Stratford, albeit in a hot race, but given that was his last run of the season there maybe a reason behind that effort. This season he was a good 3rd on his seasonal return, he disappointed on fast ground at Larkhill, but he followed that up with a really impressive success on testing ground at Garnons in a quick time. Given the horse who beat him at Chepstow ran so well at Newbury last week, he easily has the best form in this race and crucially he should handle the Ffos Las mud whereas his main danger won't enjoy it. The more I looked at this race the more I struggle to see how Catspan can be beaten.


Catspan 3pts
Click to expand...

What service is this mate? PM me if you don't want to post it on here. Cheers.
 
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I must admit I am a little puzzled about Exeter's hunter chase today. On the face of it Aerial could win this pretty easily. He ran as well as I thought he would do in the Foxhunter at Cheltenham when finishing 7th. Just to recap on his point wins he won both at Larkhill very easily although they weren't strong races. This drop in trip should be fine for him as is the ground. He has bled before, but the fact he didn't when put under pressure at Cheltenham is a good sign. He could win this easily as it isn't a strong race despite the numbers, but you have to factor in the fact he did have a tough race at Cheltenham and for a horse who has had issues in the past he might feel the effects of that today. When betting opened he was a 2/1 shot and at that price he would have been the tip. He is now odds on and I just think at that price it isn't worth the risk.Tataniano used to be a stable mate of Aerial, indeed he reached a higher rating. He hasn't shown much for a while, but this is obviously a huge step down from the races he ran in last season. The question is how much ability does he still retain and I have to admit I know little about his new trainer. She does train in Tiverton though and given he is unlikely to stay 3m I would imagine this has been the aim. Still there is too much guess work required to be backing him.
I actually think the best plan of action to take those two out of the equation and look at the betting without markets then we aren't guessing. It is staggering a horse like Shrewd Investment has to give weight to the front two in the betting, but that is what he has to do. He won this race last year, but ran poorly on what was basically his seasonal debut at Towcester. Maybe he needed it, but it wasn't a strong race and there has to be a question mark about him after that.
There are three I think are worth backing. First of all Joker Choker who caught my eye at Leicester last time. Granted his jumping will be a concern given he made a bad mistake that day and fell at the last at Stratford last season. That was a really good effort though and he stayed on well on ground that would have been soft enough for him at Leicester. He is sure to come on for that run as well and if his jumping hold up he could go well here.
Himalayan Express is a hard horse to win with, but he interests me in this contest. I thought he ran pretty well at Warwick last time and he just have it in him to run well here. What I find really interesting is that he has the tongue-tie on for the first time and I really think that could help him. If it does improve him then he is up to running a good race in this company.
The final horse is The Donserelli. He doesn't stay in points but has run well both last season and this until his stamina has given way. There is a U next to his name but he didn't fall at a fence he actually jinked when going round a bend and the rider fell off. The piece of form I really like though is when he finished 6th at Cheltenham last April. Granted he was beaten 25L that night, but it was a hot race and he was still travelling pretty well until he was badly hampered at the 3rd last. He lost ground, but stayed on well to nearly collar solid yardstick What A Laugh for 5th. He has won over course and distance and handles any ground. He is currently a 33/1 chance in the outright market which I think is too big.
So like I say I think it is worth taking the front two out of the equation and hopefully we can nail a winner. I imagine Joker Choker will be too small a price to back e/w so he will be win only and the other two we can back each way. I also think it is worth having small bets on them in the outright market, just in case the both the front two disappoint. Bet 365 offer the market.


Joker Choker 1pt win betting without front two (also 0.5pts e/w)
HImalayan Express 0.5pts e/w betting without front two market (also 0.25pts e/w)
The Donserelli 1pt e/w betting with front two market (also 0.25pts e/w)
 
Good stuff Benny.

I agree with him in a way about The Donserelli but he's about the right price now for me.

A similar type ie. one who doesn't seem to stay 3m, at least in the higher grades is Ambitious Pursuit, he won his first two outings in the UK but has seemed to struggle with the trip since weakening around 2 out most of the time. The drop back should work for him and he has his regular jockey Pippa Glanville in the saddle here and is currently around 66/1. I don't think Tatiano is the horse he was and the only other runner bar Aerial and Joker Choker for me is Delta Borget.

Martin
 
beautiful half hour - backed Moscow Chancer at 34, matched at 65 as Aerial was sauntering alongside.

Cheers Martin for even making me look at the racing today!!!
 
Stunning! Martin, you were already a legend what level comes next? Terrific stuff. Thanks!


Update. That was an account closer.
 
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