Allerford Jack – Well beaten at Taunton on his return to action after a long absence, but his old form not even good enough anyway.
Big Fella Thanks – Has run seven times around this course and only failed to complete once. His best effort in the Grand National was a 4[SUP]th[/SUP] to Don’t Push it in 2010 and he also finished 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in the 2012 Becher Chase, whilst he was 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in last season’s Topham. Ran a really good race when a close 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] to Annacotty off a mark of 135 at Cheltenham in January and then made his hunter chase debut when winning as he liked at Wincanton when beaten Neverownup. Had Derek O’Connor booked so that is a big plus and not sure there are too many here who could be 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in a Cheltenham handicap off a mark of 135. A bold showing would not surprise.
Bobs Law – Really is back to form this season with two hunter chase wins. First he slogged it out in the Ffos Las mud when just getting the better of Universal Soldier and then won well at Chepstow beating Tugboat who boosted the form by winning at Ludlow last week. Don’t think he is up to winning this but can give his young jockey a good spin round.
Bound For Glory – Hannah Lewis gave him a fantastic ride from the front at Stratford last month as he beat a fair field easily. Jumped for fun that day so I can see him enjoying this test, the problem is I doubt he will be able to dominate this field in quite the same way. Despite that I can see him giving Hannah a great ride for a long way.
Boxer Georg – Was 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in this in 2011 to Baby Run, but not got close to that effort in this race since and he has shown poor form this season.
Brunswick Gold – Got loose before last year’s race and was withdrawn so connections hoping he will at least start this year. Not in the same form this time around though and was well beaten at Leicester last time.
Current Event – Was pleased to get this horse right at Cheltenham as he was a duly well beaten 12[SUP]th[/SUP] after not even getting involved. As I said before that race you can pick all sorts of holes in his form and he hasn’t actually achieved an awful lot either in points or in his Musselburgh hunter chase win. What I will say though is this trip is much more suitable for him so that is certainly in his favour so I am not as against him as I was before Cheltenham. He has sometimes guessed at one in points so his jumping would by a slight worry, but he did get round in the Grand Sefton in 2013, although was a well beaten 6[SUP]th[/SUP].
Douglas Julian – A different horse this season as last year he wasn’t finishing off his races. He surprised me when winning his first hunter chase at Kelso in February and then surprised me even more when following up in a handicap back there off a mark of 110. Usually makes the running, but was well behind from the start in this last year when finishing 11[SUP]th[/SUP]. Given he is in better form this time around he might improve on that, but not enough to trouble the judge.
Earth Dream – Was 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in this last year, but a huge 26L behind Warne. Paid for trying to go with Pacha Du Polder at Ludlow last time when just getting caught for 2[SUP]nd[/SUP]. Both those runs show he has plenty to find though to even finish 4[SUP]th[/SUP] again.
Good Egg – Was beaten 41L by Last Time D’Albain at Fairyhouse last time and has no chance here.
Illusion Of Time – Was a 12L 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in a maiden hunter chase at Downpatrick last time when 9/4f and that form way below what is needed here.
Last Time D’Albain – An interesting contender from Ireland. Was a close 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] off a mark of 137 in the Topham two years ago, but unseated at Bechers first time round in last year’s Grand National. Has had three runs this season finishing 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in a point and then won a point before putting up a good performance to win a Fairyhouse hunter chase in February. He beat Cheltenham Foxhunter 4[SUP]th[/SUP] Carsonstown Boy that day so the form looks solid enough and he is capable of going well.
Major Malarky – Got round to finish 11[SUP]th[/SUP] in the 2013 National. Hammered weak opposition when winning a hunter chase at Kelso in February and it would have been interesting to see how he would have gone back in a handicap there at the same track last month, but he unseated at the 11[SUP]th[/SUP]. The main problem he will have is the trip as he has plenty of stamina and not hard to see him being run off his feet early on. Every chance he will be staying on at the finish, but not sure it will be enough to hit the frame.
Neverownup – Trainer caused a massive shock to win this with Silver Adonis in 2010 and it would be a pretty big shock if this one won as well. Was flattered by his proximity to Big Fella Thanks at Wincanton and only 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] at Leicester last time. Will at least appreciate the drying ground, but has plenty to find.
Nowurhurlin – A really hard horse to win with and I think his two hunter chase wins have been down to the opposition failing to perform from one reason or another rather than him being the best horse in the race. Ran well enough to finish 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] to Palypso De Creek at Carlisle last time having been beaten more than that by hi at Leicester the time before. His form isn’t good enough, but if this quirky horse takes
to the fences he may outrun his form.
Ockey De Neulliac – Been a winning machine for current connections in the last couple of seasons winning 8 points and a couple of hunter chases. Those hunter chase wins last season came in good races as well winning the Walrus at Haydock and the Ladies race at Cheltenham’s hunter chase night in April. He has won four from four in points this season and although the form isn’t overly strong it proves he is still in good heart. Another who is certain to be wanting to be up there early and it will be hard for him to dominate this field the way he did at Haydock and Cheltenham. Even so he should give a bold showing.
On The Fringe – A horse whose form was more than good enough to win a Cheltenham Foxhunter, but I never thought he would because he had always struggled to stay before. Well he certainly proved me wrong with a stunning 17L win at Cheltenham. I always thought this race was more suitable for him so naturally I think he has a big chance here. It is a very hard task to do the double although Baby Run would have gone close to doing both in 2011 but for falling 2 out at Cheltenham. He has only had three runs this season so has been brought along steadily by his trainer and there has been 4 weeks between the two Festivals this year so that will help as well. The one slight concern is the fact he will be held up so he will need to avoid any trouble that happens in front of him, but granted luck in running he has a huge chance of doing the double.
Out Now – Purchased by his owner so he could have a ride over the National fences and he was impressive when beating a poor field at Warwick in January. Then came the infamous Ludlow race in February when he looked the winner until stopping to a walk on the run-in and ended up coming third. Up until that point it was a good run and he wouldn’t be a complete no hoper here, but the jockey is always going to be a massive issue especially with no experience around the course.
Pacha Du Polder – On official BHA ratings he is the highest rated horse in the race and has run two solid efforts in hunter chases this season. First up he was a good 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] to Teaforthree at Bangor, where the soft ground would have been against him. Back on better ground at Ludlow he bolted up last month. That wasn’t the strongest race ever, but it showed he still held a decent level of ability. Ran in the Topham a couple of years ago but was well beaten that day so that is a slight concern, otherwise holds solid claims.
Quinz – His two wins in points have come in weak races, especially at Godstone last time when he won by two fences. Tried to give Paint The Clouds a race at Doncaster in February but was beaten 10L in the end. Didn’t exactly have an enjoyable experience round here in the 2011 National after making a mistake at Valentines and then bursting a blood vessel. Trip might be on the short side for him as well.
Rouge Et Blanc – Ran in the first hunter chase of the season when finishing 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] at Taunton. That form not good enough to win this and although he has run fair enough races in two handicaps since, that isn’t good enough form either.
Sergeant Dick – Would have won at Warwick but for jumping right that day and that has to be a massive concern around here even if he had form good enough to win. Hopefully he won’t get in others way.
Shoreacres – I thought he ran a cracker at Cheltenham, given he isn’t the strongest of stayers and the ground would have been soft enough for him. He was in contention turning for home and it was only his stamina running out which caused him to only finish 6[SUP]th[/SUP] and beaten 27L. I can’t see him reversing Cheltenham form with the winner and interestingly usual rider Hannah Lewis is on Bound For Glory. Even so he could run a big race at a big price.
Siro Demur – Really should have won at Leicester last time but his jockey didn’t kick for home when he should have done and was collared late on by El Mondo. Beat Shoreacres by 1/2L at Kempton last season although was behind Pacha Du Polder at Bangor in February. A horse I like a lot, but I think he needs shorter and will probably be outclassed anyway.
Soleil D’Avril – Had been struggling since showing good form in points in 2013, but bounced back to his best when wining well enough at Catterick last month. Even so should be nowhere good enough to win this.
Tartan Snow – Caused a massive upset when winning this in 2013 and then ran really well again last year to finish 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] to Warne. Gone to new connections this season though and not shown anywhere near the same form. Ms Annabel Roberts is also not in the same league as Derek O’Connor who rode him last year and Jamie Hamilton who won the race on him. Add in the fact he is now 15 and it would be astonishing if he got anywhere near to be repeating his exploits in the last two years.
Twirling Magnet – Rated 140 and has proven he still holds plenty of ability in his two hunter chase wins this season. Would have been interesting to see what would have happened at Wetherby when he made a bad mistake and his jockey got into a bit of difficulty, possibly because the saddle slipped. He then followed that up with two very easy wins at Ludlow and Newbury beating Ballytober on both occasions although that one didn’t exactly boost the form last week. Even so I think he still holds enough ability to go close in this, but the main issue is his jumping. He fell at the first in the National last year, and as well as the mistake at Wetherby he made a pretty bad one at Newbury last time. I would be amazed if he didn’t make at least one mistake round here and if you do want to back him I suggest doing so in the faller insurance market as if he did get round he has place claims.
Vincitore – Finished 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] behind Twirling Magnet at Newbury on his seasonal debut and that was for me a personal best despite the face he won at Chepstow last season. Looked capable of winning again on the Newbury run, but it won’t be this race.
Warne – Was so impressive in this race last year having finished a close 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in 2013. Has never actually beaten On The Fringe although it should be added that he barely stays 3m and he was way too free at Punchestown in May when finishing a 22L 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] to On The Fringe in the Champion Hunters Chase. This season he has only run the once that was when comfortably winning an Irish point last month. It has to be a slight worry he has had only one start since May, but this was obviously always going to be his main target. The fact he has Sam Waley-Cohen on board is an obvious plus given how well he rides this course. He should go well again, but there are two other niggling doubts I have. First of all he managed to get a fairly easy time of things out in front last year and given the amount of probable front runners this time around I doubt that will be the case this year. Also linked to that is the fact last year’s renewal was pretty bad which is highlighted by the fact only Warne and Mossey Joe started in single figure odds. Given Mossey Joe had anything but a clear prep it could be argued he had a pretty easy task. Don’t get me wrong he is capable of winning the race for the second year running, but it will be a lot tougher.
Chosen Milan – Ran a huge race at Cheltenham, especially given she was hampered early on, to finish 21L behind On The Fringe in 5[SUP]th[/SUP] place. The Taunton win the time before was her 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] hunter chase success and she seems to be still on the upgrade. No reason why this test shouldn’t suit and can go well although clearly work to do to reverse Cheltenham form with On The Fringe.
Summary – Fair to say this is a much stronger race than last year’s renewal and I also think it might be a stronger race than the Cheltenham Foxhunter. I know it is hard to do the double, but I have always thought this race would should On The Fringe more than the Cheltenham version, so the fact he was so impressive there means I have to stick with him at Aintree. Granted he will need luck in running as he will be held up but I am pretty confident he is the best horse in the race. Also the potential of a strong pace would suit him. Warne has an obvious e/w chance again given his record in the race, but I just wonder if things haven’t gone quite as smoothly as connections would have liked and although his jockey is a big plus, I don’t think he will get as easy a time out in front as he did last year. The next few in the betting all have solid chances but the one I think worth having an e/w bet on is Last Time D’Albain. He ran well in the Topham two years ago and has improved with every start this season. At bigger prices there are a few with the potential to do well. Ockey De Neulliac, Bound For Glory, Chosen Milan and Shoreacres are four who look big prices, but the one I am going to put up is Bobs Law. I have really liked the way he has gone about his two victories this season, he jumps well, has a good young jockey and should be handy without needing to be up with what I think will be a strong early gallop.
On The Fringe 2pts
Last Time D’Albain 0.75pts e/w
Bobs Law 0.5pts e/w
Another shrewd judge I know has advised Kalastar - 2 singles and a r/f/c I think.
