The Pointing Thread

I'm also delighted Moscow Chancer won - didn't have a penny on but the trainer is an old family friend whom I've known since I was about 4. He does well with basically no ammo and no facilities.
 
Slim,
T'was our Maltese friends. Not a big bet with them today but seemingly the last straw. Caught me unawares as I'm pretty careful to spread bets around to avoid this eventuality. There are a number that don't allow me promotions etc., but I'm not really bothered about £25 in a free bet just whether I'm getting a good price for the risk. BOG is obviously beneficial and certainly I benefitted from that with some of the others bookies today with more significant bets.

As you well know the use of computers and cookies has allowed layers insights into betting patterns et al which makes it more and more difficult for the punter. With some supposedly big firms I now get "referred to traders" even on some small ' just cos I'm watching TV' bets. I'm seriously considering binning several of the apps to avoid the automatic 'you are allowed £2.61' type of response. Oh for the days when bookies used to give free hospitality to encourage players so as to gain market intelligence as Will Hill used to with their Golden Spurs.

Enough of a moan this is a CELEBRATION DAY thanks to MARVELLOUS MARTIN
 
Cheers guys - course bookies put up some 14/1 at Northaw which disappeared very very quickly.

Sadly I couldn't back it as I had two runners of my own in the race!!

Great to see him doing that today and still a bit green/quirky, hopefully Gary will find a nice handicap around Plumpton for him next.

Martin
 
I thought for a brief moment we were going to hit the jackpot with The Donserelli, but in the end he faded out of it to finish 4th. That meant he was 2nd in the betting without the big two market so at least we got some sort of return. It was a solid enough run and if he might win one of these if finding the right race. Joker Choker ran an absolute stinker as did Himalayan Express who jumped poorly to start with and never got involved.
I am kicking myself a little for not considering the winner. He off course finished 2nd in that dramatic Ludlow race, but he was a bit disappointing last time. He had the first time visor on today though and that clearly improved him. A few people have been slagging off Will Biddick's ride on Aerial, but I don't understand why and personally think it is a bit of pocket talking. The horse has bled in the past and like I said in the preview I was worried about how he would react to coming under pressure, especially after a hard run at Cheltenham. He looked the winner, but once Will asked for an effort there was nothing there and he knew that going hard on him wasn't going to make a blind bit of difference. From 2/1 the night before he ended up going off 1/2 which was a crazy price and more proof that a Cheltenham run can be hard to get over.
Tataniano ran a good race for a come back and if building on that can win a hunter chase this season. Delta Borget ran his usual solid race back in 5th.


Two hunter chases today and both have odds on favs. First up is Wincanton's 4.20 and Paul Nicholls sends Merrion Square hunter chasing for the first time. He was a good 2nd in the Grand Military at Sandown last time which was a good effort given it was his first run since August. I don't know much about his jockey Lewis Ferguson and he seems to have had only 4 hurdle rides this season. Clearly though Nicholls wouldn't put him up unless he thought he could do the job.
Coombe Hill is bidding to win this for a 3rd time and obviously has been a great servant over the years. It was great to see him win here earlier in the season on his unflavoured heavy ground as well. Ground will be more suitable tomorrow, but he has to give weight away to Merrion Square and that will be tough for him.
Gale Force Oscar made a decent seasonal return, but hasn't been as good in two runs since. If he could return to his Chepstow form he might have a squeak here. Foynes Island finally won again last time and was well backed to do so. It wasn't a strong race though and the 2nd would have won if he had jumped better.
The others have no chance. It is hard to see Merrion Square and Coombe Hill finishing first and second here as they both have a bit in hand over their rivals.


Merrion Square to beat Coombe Hill 1pt fc

The 4.40 at Towcester looks a two horse race. Coeur Brule won 11 days ago on his first start since Nov 27th 2011! Some effort that but it was only a weak maiden and he shouldn't be a single figure price.
Legal Legend and Mr Mercurial have previous form this season when the latter beat the former by just over 2l at Larkhill in January. I then saw Legal Legend win at Thorpe Lodge when he only just got up. I must admit I wasn't overly impressed by the jockey that day and that concerns me here. He won a Mens Open after that at Garthorpe although it wasn't a strong contest.

Mr Mercurial was possibly a little disappointing at Stratford, but I think the fact it came so quickly after his Horseheath win and the fact the winner led them a merry dance were reasons for the defeat. He beat Gunmoney at Horseheath and he has won twice since and of course we know the Leicester form was boosted by Following Dreams at Cheltenham. The blinkers replace the visor and they should help as well. The trip at this course looks ideal and he really should land his first hunter chase here. He is odds on though and given these two should really finish first and second I think it is worth doing a forecast instead and doing a double with the two favs.


Mr Mercurial to beat Legal Legend 2pts fc


Merrion Square/Mr Mercurial 2pt double
 
Mr Mercurial has looked quirky in the past and the drop in trip should suit Legal Legend, think they should be closer in the market (circa 10/11 and 7/4), couldn't have Ceour Brule at all and think Legal Legend is the bet @ 11/4.

Wincanton is interesting as Merrion Square should win but inclined to side with Gale Force Oscar of the remainder @ 12/1 and 7/2 W/O MS.

Martin
 
Irish Stamp said:
Mr Mercurial has looked quirky in the past and the drop in trip should suit Legal Legend, think they should be closer in the market (circa 10/11 and 7/4), couldn't have Ceour Brule at all and think Legal Legend is the bet @ 11/4.

Wincanton is interesting as Merrion Square should win but inclined to side with Gale Force Oscar of the remainder @ 12/1 and 7/2 W/O MS.

Martin
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Excellent again Martin :thumbsup:- unfortunately I missed it.
 
Pentiffic disappointed last time out on softer than ideal at Chepstow last time out. Prior to that he'd registered his second successive victory in a two and a half mile Warwick Hunter Chase but he stays this trip well having finished third over four miles at Cheltenham last year and should go well again here.

Martin
 
Interesting Grade 1 Mares Novice's tomorrow with Bitofapuzzle due to start fav on the back of her third at Cheltenham. She's currently 7/2 with stablemate Desert Queen available at 14/1 .

DQ changed yards last Summer and was very impressive in two wins for Ben Clarke (assistant to rules trainer Anthony Honeyball) prior to her sale to Harry Fry's yard. She's been impressive in two wins under rules too and drifted like a barge the first day, Fry does well with his mares and while I'm not saying she'll win I doubt there's more than half a stone between her and the jolly and she's certainly worth a bet at the price.

Martin
 
Northern Area P2Ping isn't really my area but two competitive and open enough looking Hunter Chases at Sedgefield today.

Charles Bruce (16/1) won the four mile race at a huge price at Cheltenham a couple of years ago. He disappointed in the main last season pulling up once and finishing a distant sixth twice behind Pearlysteps and Palypso De Creek respectively. The latter would be odds-on if contesting today's Hunter Chase and trainer Andrew Campbell had a winner at Exeter earlier in the week with Moscow Chancer. Crucially the horse was ridden by Freddie Tett and Jamie Bargary last season, the latter is a decent jockey but the return of the now amateur again Charlie Deutsch could prove crucial to Charles Bruce's chance given he gave him a superb ride to win at Cheltenham in May 2013. Special Portrait has a significant swing at the weights with Charles Bruce from that Cheltenham defeat of half a length but appears to be on the downgrade and while the return to better ground should suit and both will like the 3m3f trip the value here likes with Andrew Campbell's horse who wouldn't be making the trip North for the fresh air.

Would add that CB has the best jockey in the race and that Paul Collins on the favourite is very dodgy at best.


Surprised to see Kildare Blowin the price that he is in the Novices Hunter Chase, he was a 112 performer a couple of years ago and shaped well when seemingly not staying on his pointing debut at Alnwick in December 2013 (hdd when fell in the straight), he showed there he has the ability to win races and while the absence is a worry and he's taking on "better" horses, or at least those who've won at a higher level pointing I doubt those could run to a mark of 110+ under rules and he looks the value at around 20/1.

Martin
 
Great write up again Martin
Do you know why Charlie Deutsch has gone back to amateur?
 
Thanks Fonz - I'm not 100% certain but I'd imagine he didn't think he would make it as a pro.

As far as I know there's a time limit (something like 2 years or poss slightly longer/shorter) that you can be a pro before being unable to go back to riding in p2p's so I'd imagine it's to prolong his race riding career so to speak.

Martin
 
Thanks Martin. As mentioned earlier on the thread Andrew Campbell is a family friend of mine - I'll be cheering on Charles Bruce today.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Great write up Martin and very nearly a brilliant selection. Charles Bruce ran really well but just ran out of steam near the finish line.

Keep up the good work Martin.
 
Irish Stamp said:
Thanks Fonz - I'm not 100% certain but I'd imagine he didn't think he would make it as a pro.

Martin
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I must say I'm surprised and rather shocked by this. I've known Charlie D. for a couple of years and no-one associated with the Longsdon yard has been in any doubt that he would make it as a pro, even given the huge competition that conditional jockeys have to face. I can only imagine that the reasons are tactical and his current amateur status will be temporary. I'll make enquiries.
 
Charlie D just been disqualified from second place at Sedgefield for weighing in light after an objection from the clerk of the scales
 
Very unlucky there today - Charlie Deutsch DQ'd for failing to wear the correct body protector (though why this wasn't noticed before the race is beyond me).

Tomorrow it's hard to see past the two favourites. Can Mestret literally has to jump round against a few horses who've been disappointing, he fell last time out when held but has won around here before and has plenty of pace so should see these off. He's currently around the 10/11 mark (I made him 4/9).

Moroman has jumped RH on occasion but has won here in the past and is another who is taking on disappointing horses, there's still some 6/5 available with Bet365 if anyone has an account and he's a 4/7 chance. If anybody can place lay Benheir he's not looked like a racehorse in his recent P2P outings including in a Club Members at Penshurst LTO.

Martin
 
Martin, Would you be very confident of the double? Both races on ATR for anyone tuning in.

For Hunter Chase information what are your thoughts on the packs Wetherbys provides?

On a separate note I see Mick Easterby has hired Joseph O'Brien for two rides at Cork, could be worth adding them to the mix.

Be lucky whatever you back.
 
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