The Pointing Thread

As far as I know Briony Frost will ride Current Event at Cheltenham, last I heard Two Rockers wasn't going but that was a fortnight ago.

Martin
 
Thanks Martin. I wondered if Briony would keep the ride or if they would opt for a more experienced pilot. I wonder whether the trip might stretch Two Rockers but in a year where most of the leading fancies are quite well exposed I'd have thought it worth chancing. He runs tomorrow in a point
 
Rose seemed keen to keep a regular pilot on Current Exchange so think that Briony will continue to ride - if she was to get anybody else in then I'd imagine Will Biddick would be most likely.

That would be my doubt concerning Two Rockers - stamina, certainly has the class but it's a tough task for a horse that's yet to run over fences.

Martin
 
Interesting novice HC at Catterick today Martin. Anything stand out as a bet to you? Afraid I don't have a clue about the pointing form this year.
 
Interesting race tomorrow at Leicester - Popaway, Hazy Tom, Neverownup and Siro Demur among the runners over the minimum trip.

IMHO two of those will bomb out and there'll be some value on one of the others and at least one of the outsiders, will post more in the morning.

Martin
 
Irish Stamp said:
Interesting race tomorrow at Leicester - Popaway, Hazy Tom, Neverownup and Siro Demur among the runners over the minimum trip.

IMHO two of those will bomb out and there'll be some value on one of the others and at least one of the outsiders, will post more in the morning.

Martin
Click to expand...

look forward to your views Martin
 
Hazy Tom - Runs like a non-stayer over 3m and showed little when pulling up at Bangor last month. Hopes seem to lie entirely with this drop in trip suiting or the headgear working. He's not won ovre this short since November 2012 and had a CD win for his Bangor run as recently as October 2013.

Neverownup - Seems to retain plenty of ability though quite what he achieved in finishing runner-up to Big Fella Thanks given that rival won easily and the only other real contender ran flat is beyond me. He'd ideally prefer better ground but a bigger concern for me is the relatively inexperienced jockey and he looks held on the Bangor running by Siro Demur.

Popaway - She was well backed when tasting defeat at Thorpe Lodge (circa 11/10 into 4/6) over three miles last time out. That would be a staying track and she beat inferior rivals when winning FTO in a Mares race this season (well placed to win that). Evidently a useful mare having won both her HC's over 2-2 1/2m last season though.

Siro Demur - Market suggested not much was expected of him first time out this season when a solid fourth behind Teaforthree at Bangor. I put him up on here on that occasion and his win in this race last year against Delta Borget was a pretty easy success in the end. He'll go on the ground and won twice last year in this company and should again run well here.

My other fancy is Joker Choker, he's a course winner having taken a firm ground chase here when odds-on favourite back in December 20011. His pointing starts last year were disappointing but I'd put that primarily down to him not staying the trip so it was no surprise to see him close-up and still having chances (wouldn't have said he was definitely "held") when falling at the last over this trip at Stratford in May. The jockey has won Hunter Chases before and the only doubt/concern would be stamina for me - though any drying of the ground would help too.

Siro Demur @ 5/1

Joker Choker @ 14/1

Martin
 
Best horse in the race too Benny - think Harry Cobden owes Alex Edwards a pint for waiting for him ;)
 
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Aye, hard luck Martin. Do we think Two Rockers is value in receipt of 12lb from Price de Beauchene? Maguire has a good line to PDB through Seventh Sign and he's solid enough in the market.
 
Only just seen this Harry :( Would have said that he was value but it certainly didn't turn out that way.

Tomorrow back Chiquilline @ 14/1 if you have a Bet365 account or 12's if not.

Place lay Calgary Bay and Tartan Snow - both are ageing veterans who look completely gone.

Martin
 
What's the final verdict on today's race then Martin? I'm on Salsify each way but considering backing On the Fringe as well.


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I think OTF will run his race, which ultimately will be a one-paced 8 or 9 length defeat IMHO.

Paint The Clouds the one to beat, at bigger prices I think Consigliere, Aiteen Thirtythree and Brackloon High are worth considering. The last two are doubts based on the jockey, Natalie Parker has won on AT before but think she's only had the one victory over regulation fences (on this horse at Lingfield), decent ground will suit. Brackloon High's jockey is an oldish chap, amateur who's family own the horse I think but he's gone well here before and beat Harbour Court at Cottenham and is now 2 from 3 in p2p's while Consigliere comes from a top yard though I'd be concerned by Joe tearing off in front on him.

Martin
 
a write up I have received, not my own work!

Onto the big one tomorrow and annoyingly it is raining in Cheltenham and it isn't meant to stop until late afternoon. It is annoying because I had been working on it being a good ground race and also we don't know how testing it will get. I must admit I am not sure Paint The Clouds wants a slog, but at least he stays well and given we have seen so many front running horses win this week that is a plus as well. I still rate him the most likely winner. I was keen on Consigliere in the original preview and although he handles soft I am not sure the combination of trip and ground will be in his favour. Carsonstown Boy has been cut today and I can see why. If anything softer ground will be in his favour rather than the good ground he was 2nd on last year. He is probably nearer the price he should be now.
Universal Solider was one I mentioned was on my shortlist and he is certainly worth adding to our bets. All he does is stay and he handles soft ground and like I said before he will be staying on when others have cried enough. He is 22/1 and that looks a juicy price to me. I must admit I am almost starting to get keener on him than I am on Paint The Clouds.
I must admit I am not sure Following Dreams wants the ground testing, but at his price of 66/1 we have to have a little nibble on him.
Make sure you have any e/w bets with a bookie going 4 places (if you happen to have a Racebets account they are going 5 places).
I will keep an eye on things tomorrow and will update if anything else appeals as a bet.


Universal Solider 1pt e/w
Following Dreams 0.25pts e/w
 
I was tempted by those two but think a bit more rain would suit FD and probably US too though the latter wouldn't want it too soft.

Martin
 
Good Hunter Chase at Ludlow - form of the favourite's second at Bangor hasn't really worked out, Siro Demur the sole bright spot among those to finish close-up but even that resulted in a defeat.

Don't think Hector's Choice is all that and neither is Earth Dream so this looks ripe for another Ludlow shark.

Three I'd be siding with here are last years runner-up Chief Heckler (16/1) who's run well around here in the past and can go well fresh, Bermuda Boy (40/1) who should be suited by the drying ground and even though his latest win was very fortunate he should still be a player here also the Heidi Brookshaw-trained pair of Ballyjames (28/1) and Sam Cavallaro (150/1). Ballyjames took a 3 1/2m Open at Cocklebarrow last time out but has been running against decent Open horses this season so no surprise that that was his first victory. He comes from a good stable and has run respectably in a couple of Hunter Chases in the past. Sam Cavallaro was sold very cheaply in the Autumn but wouldn't have been in the greatest yard in Ireland, the other horse sold from that source has won three times under rules since and Sam Cavallaro wouldn't have been suited by the soft ground at Chaddesley Corbett on his British debut. It's generally hard to fancy a horse who's pulled up on his last six visits to the track but he ran well for a long way at Chaddesley and the drop in trip and better ground should suit him here.

Over at Chepstow Blazing Whale (15/2) looks slightly overpriced but most of the value has gone now sadly and also Pathian Prince (50/1) who should have come on for his return at Ffos Las in a race won by today's rival Bobs Law. The ground wouldn't have suited him that day and he didn't appear to be beaten when coming down four out in this race last year.

Martin
 
Only reason I'd say is his run in January wasn't all that good - he was odds-on for this though two years ago and in reality the only thing that's changed is that he's now two years older.

I think he's a bit short personally (I made him 11/2).

Martin
 
After yesterday no real strong view in today's Hunter Chase other than that I think regardless of what he does pre-race and the price he goes off at (within reason) Harbour Court is likely to hit a serious flat spot in the race and will be chivvied along circa two miles into the race.

I think he's worth laying at around 9/4 as you should easily be able to back him back I/R at bigger. I made him a 3/1 chance and in the W/O Twirling Magnet market I think that Ballytober (17/2) may be the best bet if Harbour Court can't get back into it.
 
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