I was thinking last night how you usually make a lot of sense in real life, but then I thought about how I usually have 5 or 6 beers with you and thought that may explain it...
...as good a working theory as anything we have at this stage.
The Road to the 2012 2000 Guineas
- Thread starter Bar the Bull
- Start date
...as good a working theory as anything we have at this stage.
Pricewise put him up in yesterday’s paper in fact. It's not a big surprise as Bonfire was third favourite for the race in most lists and was already as low as 12/1 at the weekend (you can still get this price now rather than take 8/1). He’s a plausible choice at this stage. Tom has already put up the second favourite Akeed Mofeed earlier in the season and will put another one up at the next acceptance stage, thus hedging his bets. He will either switch his allegiance to the favourite on the day or go for another live outsider. Either way he will be well covered by then. This is not to criticise Tom, it’s what he does for a living and has to come up with something to fill up column inches.
He runs in the Dee Stakes on Friday btw. O'Brien runs the useful looking Astrology, who has the same OR as Bonfire, but we might expect that one not to be Ballydoyle's first choice for the Derby. So it will probably be disappointing if Bonfire doesn't do this comfortably.
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prince regent
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camelot got a lower topspeed figure than most in the last 10 years 10lb behind sea for the stars strangely perhaps some of the winners that did nothing after the guineas got amongst the highest speed figures. (cockney rebel being the 2nd fastest in the last decade) though his figure not far of rock of gibralter
strange though would one expect a potential derby winner to run a mile as fast as a potential Top miler i would be a bit dubious about his stamina if he did.
At the end of the day he beat a horse who could be one of frances top milers who would have prefered the ground and also had the benifit of having a run rather cosily
One would have to say it was an excellent trial for next months derby in which he will probably get the better ground he wants will strip much fitter and the distance will play to his strenghts
plenty of trials to come not many will be much more than soft races
strange though would one expect a potential derby winner to run a mile as fast as a potential Top miler i would be a bit dubious about his stamina if he did.
At the end of the day he beat a horse who could be one of frances top milers who would have prefered the ground and also had the benifit of having a run rather cosily
One would have to say it was an excellent trial for next months derby in which he will probably get the better ground he wants will strip much fitter and the distance will play to his strenghts
plenty of trials to come not many will be much more than soft races
prince regent
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why is bonfire a plausible choice, forget his a better price he obviously would be against an opponent with 2 grp 1 wins one of which a classic.
hes won a micky mouse heavy ground maiden at salisbury the last horse i believe to have won there and gone onto to derby glory was Mill Reef and he had proven himself at the top level come derby day
got beaten in very soft ground at st cloud againt french Fifteen debatably could have finished a little closer The 2nd horse in the race has already let the form down. Its possible that French Fifteen has improved since then so that race could be a red herring.
hes by a sire that likes a bit of cut.
the only thing sure about him is that he will stay the trip
nothing yet to indicate he has the class, the speed, or act on the ground unless there is plenty of cut in it as wet as it is now i cant see the derby being run on anything worse than good to soft
akfeed mohad could be a better choice but his prep is a concern
bolgers parrish hall to me is the most obvious challenger
hes won a micky mouse heavy ground maiden at salisbury the last horse i believe to have won there and gone onto to derby glory was Mill Reef and he had proven himself at the top level come derby day
got beaten in very soft ground at st cloud againt french Fifteen debatably could have finished a little closer The 2nd horse in the race has already let the form down. Its possible that French Fifteen has improved since then so that race could be a red herring.
hes by a sire that likes a bit of cut.
the only thing sure about him is that he will stay the trip
nothing yet to indicate he has the class, the speed, or act on the ground unless there is plenty of cut in it as wet as it is now i cant see the derby being run on anything worse than good to soft
akfeed mohad could be a better choice but his prep is a concern
bolgers parrish hall to me is the most obvious challenger
EC1
On a break
An analysis of the sectionals when ground speed has been removed shows that Camelot is a better guineas winner than Rock Of Gibraltor. Similar analysis shows that Homecoming Queen is a very similar horse to Attraction.
prince regent
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swop jamies spencer for joseph o brien and he would have lost to hawk wing
Zenyatta
At the Start
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I can't agree with this at all. Segal put up Akeed Mofeed for the 2000 Guineas and not the Derby. I doubt very much that he will put another up at the next acceptance stage and there is not a chance that he will switch allegiance to the favourite on the day, though another live outsider is a possibility.
Not a case of you agreeing Zen it’s what he said (RP April 28) Make Mofeed your banker for classic success, when he was already out of the Guineas.
TS: “My top prospect, Camelot or no Camelot, is John Oxx’s Akeed Mofeed. The slight worry about him is the recent minor injury that ruled him out of the Guineas, but that could be a blessing in disguise as he will now have a traditional Derby preparation”.
He also mentions him as his fancy for the Irish Derby should that be the way he goes.
I also see that despite putting up Bonfire for the Derby now, it is due to his price and he actually expects Camelot to win.
I’m a fan of Tom by the way. I enjoy his reasoning. But when one of his handful of selections inevitably win they refer back to February, March, April or May to whichever variant was appropriate.
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Bar the Bull
At the Start
I don't think they do. They keep a record of the number of horses he advises and their prices. Not of the horses he mentions favourably in an article.
Yes Tom has a portfolio of horses for any big race. Nothing wrong in that, it's only sensible. To be fair they do usually mention the dates and prices of the others in the portfolio in a box when he is tipping the latest in the sequence.
The paper itself quotes from any bit of copy after the race if it looks good enough though. Again not Tom's fault.
The paper itself quotes from any bit of copy after the race if it looks good enough though. Again not Tom's fault.
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No, it doesn't. One day in Spring he will advise in the RP an antepost selection (or 2) for the Derby. On the day of (say) the Derby, it will show in a box 'previously advised' (usually one horse) with any bets on the day of the Derby above that. It does not, nor will it mention after the event, all those horses that he gave a favourable mention to in his column in the Weekender etc.
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That's what I said.
B
Bruce_Savage
Guest
am·ne·sia/amˈnēZHə/
Noun:
A partial or total loss of memory.
Noun:
A partial or total loss of memory.
I didn't say he necessarily tips horses every month. I was using the months March, April May, etc to indicate that they refer back to whatever month he did tip it in.
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...how's the data coming Bruce?
B
Bruce_Savage
Guest
I was going to post it but thought what's the point?
Do I really want to put time and effort into this argument when it's meaningless and you're not exactly coming across well in the matter either.
Would rather focus my attention on racing today.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Quite right too, Bruce.
You've spent enough time and effort criticising my position. I was wondering what you had to offer by way of an alternative.
..Of course I shouldn't really be wondering what you had, as I already know the answer... it's a big fat zilch, because that's the way internet Trolls operate.
Desert Orchid
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My time rating for Camelot is very slow too but I just don't buy the sectionals' conclusion. There must be a fatal flaw in the calculation. Of the seven races run on the day and taking the first as the marker for the going, not one of the other races produced a time rating in advance of the form rating and Camelot's time rating was only 18lbs faster than that of Red Quartet, winner of the 3yo 6f handicap off 81 and 19lbs faster than Rewarded who won the 3yo handicap over course and distance off 83. Lindop, anyone?
The overall time for the Guineas was therefore slow and the race was won by a potential stayer. My pre-race hope that there wasn't any pace and that the race would fall into the hands of a true miler proved unfounded because Trumper Major has taken them along at too fast a pace. Camelot and French Fifteen came from almost last at halfway to go clear, usually a clear sign that the front runners are weakening. There can be no guarantee that they'd have got to the front off a less generous pace.
Looking at the three groups, on the near side TM has made the running and actually burned off everything that chased him. On the far side Abtaal made all and weakened significantly, probably having gone too fast in order to keep up with the near side. Caspar Netscher back in ninth led home the trio who raced up the middle but his stamina was in doubt beforehand and the other two were big outsiders. Forget them. I'm not sure what to make of the far side group given that Coupe De Ville was only beaten just over a length by Hermival.
I think time will prove Trumpet Major is far better than this bare form and possibly a better miler than French Fifteen. He'll probably improve as the season progresses and I'd defintiely fancy him to beat Camelot on the outside chance they dropped the winner back to a mile at some point.
The overall time for the Guineas was therefore slow and the race was won by a potential stayer. My pre-race hope that there wasn't any pace and that the race would fall into the hands of a true miler proved unfounded because Trumper Major has taken them along at too fast a pace. Camelot and French Fifteen came from almost last at halfway to go clear, usually a clear sign that the front runners are weakening. There can be no guarantee that they'd have got to the front off a less generous pace.
Looking at the three groups, on the near side TM has made the running and actually burned off everything that chased him. On the far side Abtaal made all and weakened significantly, probably having gone too fast in order to keep up with the near side. Caspar Netscher back in ninth led home the trio who raced up the middle but his stamina was in doubt beforehand and the other two were big outsiders. Forget them. I'm not sure what to make of the far side group given that Coupe De Ville was only beaten just over a length by Hermival.
I think time will prove Trumpet Major is far better than this bare form and possibly a better miler than French Fifteen. He'll probably improve as the season progresses and I'd defintiely fancy him to beat Camelot on the outside chance they dropped the winner back to a mile at some point.
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davidjohnson
At the Start
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I would disagree with all of that. Overall time and sectionals suggest Trumpet Major did anything but run at an overly-strong pace.