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Bruce_Savage
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Very well put Hamm.
The Road to the 2012 2000 Guineas
- Thread starter Bar the Bull
- Start date
Very well put Hamm.
You say I "keep saying" he could have run faster. Where? He ran as fast as he needed to. I have further not suggested that he won without trying hard. I have said he won despite running counter to his inherent strengths. I'm not sure there is another way I can say this to you. I repeat what have I made up. If it is something in your own head I cannot be responsible for that.
Choose your bedfellows wisely Hamm.
This is exactly the what I have said. That a rating of 123 is about right and that he can be expected to progress at middle distances. I have also said that at his current price (odds on is ludicrous) I am backing against him. This may not stop him winning though. He has a compelling chance.
Your very next sentence infers it right there - 'as he needed to'.
No need for your last part, but you seem to have lost your temper.
No offence, but your repeated points about sectionals shows a misunderstanding of how to read them.
I've not lost my temper I am trying patiently to control your willfulness. I've explained the sectionals in detail to you. It shows Camelot having more than one string to his bow. He wasn't the best Guineas winner ever but he was fast enough, when many were saying he couldn't win and are now looking to justify that position. He has a beautiful balance of speed and stamina for the Derby and can be expected to run a great race. He's not a recommended betting proposition but may well win for all that.
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Some bedtime reading for you... 
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-ra...onal-times-for-profitable-betting-160412.html
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-ra...onal-times-for-profitable-betting-160412.html
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Bruce_Savage
Guest
Stevem,
There is a relative constant level of speed every horse can reach but it's only those that can sustain their top speed for longer that can be considered higher class.
Your sectional analysis seems to indicate you expect Camelot to continue improving faster sectionals the further he went but I can assure you that he would have stopped improving another furlong or so after the winning line.
In the Derby he'll be making his move the moment he passed the finish line in the 2000 Guineas and there's no guarantee that he will have the energy to run a fast 4f because it's still relatively unknown what he can do in a fast run pace and given he's a big sort who hasn't learnt how to distribute himself evenly as a racehorse yet he could well bomb out when asked to go win his race in the Derby.
Sectional times don't tell us much, all they will let us understand is how fast a race was run but at the end of the day the final time will even things out and it's not hard to tell with the naked eye how a horse has distributed themselves.
There is a relative constant level of speed every horse can reach but it's only those that can sustain their top speed for longer that can be considered higher class.
Your sectional analysis seems to indicate you expect Camelot to continue improving faster sectionals the further he went but I can assure you that he would have stopped improving another furlong or so after the winning line.
In the Derby he'll be making his move the moment he passed the finish line in the 2000 Guineas and there's no guarantee that he will have the energy to run a fast 4f because it's still relatively unknown what he can do in a fast run pace and given he's a big sort who hasn't learnt how to distribute himself evenly as a racehorse yet he could well bomb out when asked to go win his race in the Derby.
Sectional times don't tell us much, all they will let us understand is how fast a race was run but at the end of the day the final time will even things out and it's not hard to tell with the naked eye how a horse has distributed themselves.
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If you think that you have not appreciated what I have said. The way the horse was asked to run he has done well to win, but equally has won a good deal better than "a Group 3 horse at best".
Then again there is an ocean of things that you have failed to appreciate.
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Bruce_Savage
Guest
Tell me what I've missed?
Horses can run fast and they can also slow down which can be shown through sectionals.
On your evidence you would expect Camelot to have beaten Frankel last year?
:lol:
All of it.
You are an idiot. I've already said that 123 was a fair reflection of what Camelot did. Frankel did much better than that.
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Just to be EVEN CLEARER, what's wrong with that? It's certainly more than the 1,000 Guineas winner is.
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trackside528
At the Start
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I think we are in danger of missing the wood for the trees in this debate.
In order to understand sectionals you surely have to take into account where a horse is positioned relative to other horses in the same race. Camelot was (as has been mentioned) always more likely to post quicker closing sectionals than Homecoming Queen given the way the race was run. What was impressive was that he managed to quicken past horses that were bettered positioned given the pace set-up in the race.* The beauty of sectional timing, as far as I understand it, is that it allows us to single out horses that have ran better than they 'should have' given the way the race was run - regardless of how good or bad the final time is.
As far as I'm concerned the sectionals point to both Guineas winners having put up very smart performances - just in totally contrasting circumstances. Don't see why we have to get hung up on comparing them.
Obviously, Hamm is right to point out that Camelot hasn't actually demonstrated that he can run a fast time (he hasn't been given the chance to), but I think there are pretty compelling reasons (most notably on pedigree) that suggest he may be even better in a strongly-run race over further. That said, given the price he is for the Derby I can understand the reservations.
*if we take Trumpet Major as having run the closest of any horse to 'optimal' sectionals (as Timeform did), it should theoretically have paid to race relatively close to the pace in the Guineas.
In order to understand sectionals you surely have to take into account where a horse is positioned relative to other horses in the same race. Camelot was (as has been mentioned) always more likely to post quicker closing sectionals than Homecoming Queen given the way the race was run. What was impressive was that he managed to quicken past horses that were bettered positioned given the pace set-up in the race.* The beauty of sectional timing, as far as I understand it, is that it allows us to single out horses that have ran better than they 'should have' given the way the race was run - regardless of how good or bad the final time is.
As far as I'm concerned the sectionals point to both Guineas winners having put up very smart performances - just in totally contrasting circumstances. Don't see why we have to get hung up on comparing them.
Obviously, Hamm is right to point out that Camelot hasn't actually demonstrated that he can run a fast time (he hasn't been given the chance to), but I think there are pretty compelling reasons (most notably on pedigree) that suggest he may be even better in a strongly-run race over further. That said, given the price he is for the Derby I can understand the reservations.
*if we take Trumpet Major as having run the closest of any horse to 'optimal' sectionals (as Timeform did), it should theoretically have paid to race relatively close to the pace in the Guineas.
It was fast enough to win a Guineas though and worth the 123 that I've stressed is fair. That's the point. That's all of it. Whatever he does at a mile is a bonus he is a middle distance horse in the making.
trackside528
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Exactly. Reminds me of the Phil Bull quote about a speed figure telling you how bad a horse isn't rather than how good he is.*
If anything, and in spite of Camelot's pedigree, I am slightly wary of whether a horse that demonstrated the type of turn of foot he did last Saturday will make the anticipated improvement. If he does he's surely a superstar.
*If I recall, Phil Bull also warned against backing a 2yo that hadn't proven it could clock a fast time; did he say anything about 3yo's I wonder?
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A fast enough time to win a guineas - that makes no sense whatsoever.
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Bruce_Savage
Guest
What exactly don't you understand Hamm? This is all pretty basic stuff. What is it that you have decided in your head that I am saying? I'm really not trying to sound patronising, just bemused by how obtuse you are being.
Do you not get it that a middle distance animal that runs well enough to win a Guineas against its natural strengths ought to develop into a pretty meaningful individual when stepped up? I'm sure you must get this, it's not rocket science after all, what's throwing me is you don't seem to and seem to be trying to provoke me into saying something I do not think. What's the deal? What is it that you don't see? talk us through it. I promise to stick with you until we've cleared it up.
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Bruce_Savage
Guest
There goes our Derby value Steve.
Tom has tipped Bonfire & has halved in price to 8-1 across the board.
If you snooze you lose against the Bookmakers pal Segal.
Tom has tipped Bonfire & has halved in price to 8-1 across the board.
If you snooze you lose against the Bookmakers pal Segal.
I don't understand the term 'fast enough'. Speed cannot be measured by 'enough'. It can only be measured by understanding the time, and Camelot didn't run a quick time. Moreover, I don't know what fast enough to win a Guineas means - again, this is unquanitifyable and too general.
I get it very well that a (potential) middle distance horse would do well to win a Guineas, but that is a general statement and hypothetical for now.
I was thinking last night how you usually make a lot of sense in real life, but then I thought about how I usually have 5 or 6 beers with you and thought that may explain it...
I simply mean by this that he was good enough to win the race. This is quantifiable by the time he ran relative to the others and a product of how the race was run. Further, although the overall time did nothing to set the world alight it is a better performance than many believe as he has achieved it almost counter to his inherited prepotent strengths. You call this conjecture and hypothetical, but that is what is required in previewing future events. The value of his performance in the Guineas is sound. It will not command a high rating of itself but speaks of a colt brimming with ability.