The Road to the 2012 2000 Guineas

Cantoris said:
I must say I like Camelot and I didn't have much interest before the race. The runner up got first run on him from a very similar position but was collared. Also, Camelot had every chance to throw it away 100 yards out but battled all the way to the line. If he handles the undulations of Epsom, he looks a worthy fav. Whether either (1) some outsider puts up a career best or (2) some good horse improves 10lbs, is a guessing game but if I had a docket with 2/1 on it, I'd be happy.
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I think you’re right he’s a really lovely colt. I put the comparative sectionals up on the 1,000 Guineas thread, but they ought to also appear here.
From halfway (final two quarters) Camelot finished faster than any horse in the race. At halfway French Fifteen was 14th and Camelot a place behind in 15th. Camelot covered the final three furlongs in 12.01, 12.11 and 13.09, with FF closing a fraction in the final furlong.

In contrast Homecoming Queen was first at the end of each of the eight furlongs and despite running a couple of seconds faster overall, ran
the final three furlongs in 12.32, 12.60 and 13.82

Therefore, Camelot ran the final three furlongs in 37.21 (French Fifteen in 37.32) and Homecoming Queen in 38.02.

Camelot finished his race faster than the filly did her race, even though she ran a couple of seconds faster overall. This is because Camelot started more slowly and finished from off the pace.

In short he's a middle distance type that also found enough speed to win the Guineas. He looks the type of colt well suited to winning the Derby and can emulate Nashwan and Nijinsky in that respect.
 
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Hamm said:
It doesn't matter - he didn't achieve a fast time and no-one is questioning his form, which is hugely open to question as he hasn't run in a fast race yet.
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I'm with you Hamm,

I will go to my death bed on this issue and I'm not quite sure what people are getting at with the sectionals "he was quickening towards the finish" well I'm sorry it doesn't take sectionals to understand that a horse who finishes first of a slow pace has probably quickened towards the finish it means nothing.

Aidan is a man who believes in the performance of his animals on the clock and has refused in anyway shape or form to open this horse up to a mans contest, these three year olds need to stop being molly cuddled and put out on the racecourse to race.

There's nothing worse than seeing a horse snatch a 2000 Guineas it defeats the object of what we all go to pay money to see. The Newmarket racecourse directors should find the strongest three year old pacemaker in the country who can sustain an even end to end gallop and pay for his entry into the contest and it would stop false winners like Camelot being able to embark themselves along a list of winners such as Sea The Stars, Frankel, George Washington, Kings Best, Nashwan, Dancing Brave etc.
 
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Bruce_Savage said:
Aidan is a man who believes in the performance of his animals on the clock and has refused in anyway shape or form to open this horse up to a mans contest, these three year olds need to stop being molly cuddled and put out on the racecourse to race.
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What more can they do than put him into a keenly contested classic, with 18 runners, on soft ground and ride him from the back?

It that is molly coddling....
 
Embarrassing?

It was a shocking 2000 Guineas run in a poor time by an average horse, they should of advertised the distance for Saturday's race from 8f to 1 1/2f instead.

The fact the French trainers had the cheek to come over with their 3rd and 4th string and run this "superstar" colt within a couple of lengths shows how far behind a good horse he is.

Then you've got Aidan O'Brien's Power dominating second/third place in the market when he's probably got a 2 year old running better times than him at home says all we need to know about the three year old division this year.

Don't get me wrong Camelot could go on to win The Derby but anything with an ounce of talent, anything with a hint of ability, anything with the remotest talent to run a decent time will put this superstar into the ground.
 
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Bruce_Savage said:
Embarrassing?

It was a shocking 2000 Guineas run in a poor time by an average horse, they should of advertised the distance for Saturday's race from 8f to 1 1/2f instead.

The fact the French trainers had the cheek to come over with their 3rd and 4th string and run this "superstar" colt within a couple of lengths shows how far behind a good horse he is.

Then you've got Aidan O'Brien's Power dominating second/third place in the market when he's probably got a 2 year old running better times than him at home says all we need to know about the three year old division this year.

Don't get me wrong Camelot could go on to win The Derby but anything with an ounce of talent, anything with a hint of ability, anything with the remotest talent to run a decent time will put this superstar into the ground.
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This is either demented or willfully provocative Bruce. You asked for two hours yesterday to find data to support your case... Found it yet?
 
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You do realize there is a horse in the market that's nearly trounced French Fifteen on the bridle over a mile but people are insistent on taking the 5-4 about a hard ridden 2000 Guineas winner.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
You do realize there is a horse in the market that's nearly trounced French Fifteen on the bridle over a mile but people are insistent on taking the 5-4 about a hard ridden 2000 Guineas winner.
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No horse that has beaten French Fifteen is entered for the Derby Bruce, apart from Camelot himself... you really need to do better than that.
 
SteveM said:
They aren't though. She was ridden for a fast time and they were all coming back to her (and Camelot's final sections were superior despite being ridden contrary to his strengths). It was an inspired piece of riding by Ryan Moore to achieve something she won't duplicate.
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Steve, explain how he could have gone quicker? He was able to do his final fractions BECAUSE his earlier fractions were as they were. The strong likelihood is he would have had much slower earlier fractions if he had went quicker earlier on.

And, what do you mean by 'ridden contrary to his strengths'?? He has been held up on all his starts, hence Ballydoyle seem pretty certain this is how he is seen to best effect.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
Why is Bonfire 16/1 and Camelot 5-4

Anyone like to share their thoughts?

Watch this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soWoLadk5Bs
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We've seen it. Bonfire is on my own short list for the Derby and at current odds could be worth backing. I don't see him as being an automatically better horse than Camelot though... No data to support your case yet then Bruce?
 
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Hamm said:
Steve, explain how he could have gone quicker? He was able to do his final fractions BECAUSE his earlier fractions were as they were. The strong likelihood is he would have had much slower earlier fractions if he had went quicker earlier on.

And, what do you mean by 'ridden contrary to his strengths'?? He has been held up on all his starts, hence Ballydoyle seem pretty certain this is how he is seen to best effect.
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A middle distance horse could be expected to be up with the pace if not forcing it in this sort of race. It was taking a real chance dropping him out and using his speed. They must have been very confident about his speed to do this. A colt with both speed and stamina is what is needed for the Derby and this one goes there with a great chance.
 
Through French Fifteen and visual evidence off their runs there is every chance that Bonfire is a better horse than Camelot, I really can't see how you think otherwise to be honest.

"Because he's won a 2000 Guineas" is what I'm going to be expected to listen to from everyone next.

But I think it's pretty clear that this years 2000 Guineas was in name only and you could argue it was Group 3 at best. That leaves us with the question about a horse who can't run a fast time in Group 3 Company being hard ridden and strongly pressed throughout the race as the countries leading Derby hope.

Harry will be laughing after Saturday in my humble opinion & I'd rather be in there position than Camelots.
 
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Bruce_Savage said:
Through French Fifteen and visual evidence off their runs there is every chance that Bonfire is a better horse than Camelot, I really can't see how you think otherwise to be honest.
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Well I might want to think otherwise as Camelot is rated about 10lbs higher than Bonfire. But as I say I like Bonfire. He is all over my TTF lists and on my short list for the Derby.
 
Who said he is a middle distance horse?

No offence, but you are making everything up. He could have ran faster but you can't say how. You say his finishing fractions are better than HQ's but you fail to take account of how they were achieved.

Camelot was a good, no better Guineas winner. He is probably capable of better over further. However, he is much too short for the Derby, allowing us all a good chance to find some value.

To say anything else is, for me, hype, conjecture and getting way ahead of ourselves. Best to analyse what happened as opposed to what we think could have happened.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
But I think it's pretty clear that this years 2000 Guineas was in name only and you could argue it was Group 3 at best.
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Clear to who? It is bonkers to say the the Guineas was equivalent to "a Group 3 at best"... you can go on all night but you're going under for the third time now.
 
Hamm said:
Who said he is a middle distance horse?
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Me:

Camelot was unbeaten in his two starts last term, taking the Racing Post Trophy in eye-catching style, giving his sire Montjeu his fourth success in the race. Despite showing eight stamina points in his Dosage profile he also has sharper influences with Kingmambo as his damsire and is the sort of horse that could do very well here. He can also be expected to progress at middle distances and given the likely going it may take a horse that truly gets further than a mile to take this.

Published 2/5/12
 
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Hamm said:
No offence, but you are making everything up. He could have ran faster but you can't say how.
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Making what up? I've given you the sectional times as they appear. He ran as fast as he needed to, where was I saying he could have run faster? I could discuss the race all day with you, but I don't respond well when I'm accused of invention.
 
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SteveM said:
Making what up? I've given you the sectional times as they appear. He ran as fast as he needed to, where was I saying he could have run faster? I could discuss the race all day with you, but I don't respond well when I'm accused of invention.
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Well, don't make things up then!

You keep saying he could have ran faster - that is making things up. You seem to think they tried to win a Guineas with him without trying very hard - this is how he is ridden, I'm not sure of any other way I can say this to you.
 
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