The Road To The 2012 Champion Hurdle

Bobbyjo said:
No problem with taking on an odds on favourite - but I think it's saying something like...

"Binocular's best two runs are as good as HF's best two runs (this is known form) and some of the others may have more scope for improvement."

Is what people have a problem with. The rating of Binocular's two best runs are highly debatable, and rating Grandouet within 1lb to 4lb of Hurricane Fly is possibly insane. Grandouet proved his credentials by taking 4lbs off an overraced Overturn at Cheltenham and beating him by four lengths. Overturn wouldn't beat Thousand Stars around Cheltenham.
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But why are Binocular's two best runs (Cheltenham and Ascot) "highly debatable" and HF's set in stone, I just don't get it. Don't forget he also came close to winning the Champion in 2009 and ran a fine race in the Supreme Novices before that. There is no fluke about the quality of his big runs, but due to his muscle problems he is less consistent at top level than others. However, on his day he's capable of beating pretty much anything he comes up against. So I think it quite sane to suppose it is possible he will give HF a race.

The Grandouet ratings aren't mine, but there are those who fancy his chances strongly. I've backed him myself, but in truth was more hopeful that Spirit Son was the pick of that pair. When you are talking about horses that are clearly on the upgrade you look at what they might be capable of rather than what they have already done.

This is a very competitive race and I bet if you write down all of your sure fire winners for the Festival now and compare it to the actual results you will find a few differences.;)
 
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There was nothing dubious about Binoculars champion win. However much anyone wants to downgrade those he beat, it was as powerful as you could hope to see in the race. In some ways mccoy getting animated and a bit excited (understandable) may have made it look like he was pushing him out more than he had to. He had the race won at the turn.

Reproduce that and its hard to believe he wont challenging
 
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i never said HF was value at odds on Steve..but he should be odds on

i personally won't be backing him..will be a watcher on teh day unless i get a rush of blood to the head and have a go at Grandouet

what price do you think Binocular is to run to his best..because thats what we are talking about..and if he does produce his best..you haven't a clue how good HF is yet because he's not been pushed to produce it

there are many horses running in claimers that used to be rated 20lb /30lbhigher ..the reason they aren't value at 2/1 in a claimer is that the relevant bit is ..used to be
 
SteveM said:
But why are Binocular's two best runs (Cheltenham and Ascot) "highly debatable" and HF's set in stone, I just don't get it.
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Because NONE of the horses who finished behind Binocular - nor Binocular himself - have, in any subsequent run, upheld the awarded rating of 172.

None of them.

Fact.

Horses who finished behind Hurricane Fly (Thousand Stars, Oscar Whisky, Binocular), or horses with proven Graded form who have subsequently finished behind Hurricane Fly (Unaccompanied) have all upheld his fkin form!!!

FFS! It's fkin OBVIOUS!!!
 
For anyone following along who doesn't know (or have access to) the ratings, these are the best three for each:

Hurricane Fly:

Timeform (master rating: 174):

172+ (Irish Champion '12), 171+ (Champion Hurdle '11), 169+ (Punchestown Champion & Irish Champion '11)

RPR:

173 (Irish Champion '12 & Punchestown Champion '11), 171 (Champion Hurdle '11)

Official Rating: 173

--

Binocular:

Timeform (master rating: 167):

167 (Champion Hurdle '10), 165+ (Christmas Hurdle '11), 164+ ('08 Bula)

RPR:

172 (Champion Hurdle '10 & '08 Bula), 166 (Christmas Hurdle '11 & Christmas Hurdle '10)

Official Rating: 166

Short version: Timeform and Official Handicapper have half a stone between them, RP have them level at their best.
 
Grasshopper said:
Because NONE of the horses who finished behind Binocular - nor Binocular himself - have, in any subsequent run, upheld the awarded rating of 172.

None of them.

Fact.

Horses who finished behind Hurricane Fly (Thousand Stars, Oscar Whisky, Binocular), or horses with proven Graded form who have subsequently finished behind Hurricane Fly (Unaccompanied) have all upheld his fkin form!!!

FFS! It's fkin OBVIOUS!!!
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I can see where you are coming from to a large extent but, playing devil's advocate for a second, could you not actually interpret last year's Champion form in a rather more negative light?

-Peddler's Cross cannot be judged either way really but is now apparently too slow to win an Arkle in the eyes of many. His novice hurdle form is relatively average in the context of a Champion Hurdle and his only other relevant hurdles form relies, somewhat ironically, on Starluck.
-The notion that Oscar Whisky has upheld the form in winning two relatively weak contests over further (relative being to championship standard) is a stretch, in my opinion at least, at this stage.
-Thousand Stars is a fair enough marker, though he was almost certainly below his best in the Irish Champion.
-(Your notion that Unaccompanied and Binocular should somehow be used to boost Hurricane Fly's form is totally irrelevant, given that both were palpably below their best on the respective occasions they met.)

That said, I have a feeling Oscar Whisky and Zarkandar (the Old Course could possibly play less to his strengths) probably don't have the pace to beat Hurricane Fly, though both are theoretically open to improvement. Grandouet doesn't convince me either.

The key point is the one you made that Binocular has never reproduced (or pre-produced for that matter) his Champion form. I may have taken a rose-tinted view both of his Champion (though I don't think so) and his ability to reproduce that performance (I thought his run at Kempton was pretty encouraging with the prospect of more to come), but at 10's I'm happy to take my chances and more than happy to be proved wrong.

Whatever else, the discussion on this thread has got me looking forward to Cheltenham. Roll on March. :cool:
 
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I'd love to see this thread if Ruby chose Zarkander:lol:

In fact I'd love to see Ireland if Ruby chose Zarkander
 
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Tracks, let me ask you this.

Why was Binocular "palpably below his best" when he met Hurricane Fly?

He missed Cheltenham because his trainer is a tit - not because of a setback. Indeed, Binocular ran to a mark at Punchestown which would be consistent with 90% of his outings in open company; save, of course, for that anomalous Champion Hurdle run.

I will give you the mare, but how much closer do you think she would have finished in quicker ground? At best, she's around the same level as TS, though that requires a generous interpretation of her form, imo. Besides, in quicker ground, Hurricane Fly would only have won even further.

Regardless, I'm using neither horse to prop-up Hurricane Fly, because it's not needed. They take him on and they get turned over. It's irrelevant who the opposition are.

I think we also need to separate the form argument from the price argument. People are perfectly entitled to look elsewhere if they don't like backing odds-on shots. But if straw-man or plain crazy form assessments are used to underpin alternative selections, I will reserve the right to point and laugh. ;)

:D
 
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Tracks, FWIW I didn't rate the Champion Hurdle run any better than 168 myself at the time. His Punchestown form was better in my view - perversely, not least because the question mark about Binocular had been emphatically answered.
 
If I owned Oscar whiskey I'd definitely be running him in the champion.unproven over further,nailed on for place at least in champion and no chance of turning over BB IMO.The CH lacks depth for me.Rather be second to HF than fighting it out for a place in a race where it might not get home.
 
Grasshopper said:
Tracks, let me ask you this.

Why was Binocular "palpably below his best" when he met Hurricane Fly?

He missed Cheltenham because his trainer is a tit - not because of a setback. Indeed, Binocular ran to a mark at Punchestown which would be consistent with 90% of his outings in open company; save, of course, for that anomalous Champion Hurdle run.

I will give you the mare, but how much closer do you think she would have finished in quicker ground? At best, she's around the same level as TS, though that requires a generous interpretation of her form, imo. Besides, in quicker ground, Hurricane Fly would only have won even further.

Regardless, I'm using neither horse to prop-up Hurricane Fly, because it's not needed. They take him on and they get turned over. It's irrelevant who the opposition are.

I think we also need to separate the form argument from the price argument. People are perfectly entitled to look elsewhere if they don't like backing odds-on shots. But if straw-man or plain crazy form assessments are used to underpin alternative selections, I will reserve the right to point and laugh. ;)

:D
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A combination of having to make the running, jumping out to his left and the run coming after a similarly flat effort at Aintree is what has me thinking Binocular wasn't at his best.

The theory is that Binocular is clearly a difficult horse to train and needs to be trained to the minute for a race over a stiff two miles to have any hope of getting to (or indeed within an arses roar of) Hurricane Fly.

You are dead right about the price argument (as I admitted before); had I managed to back Hurricane Fly at 6/4 and up etc I would be in a much better position. As it is I haven't had a bet in the race and am looking, probably in vain, for an angle to oppose the Mullins hotpot.

168 for last year's Champion seems about right to me, by the way. Whether he improved at Punchestown I'm not sure.
 
Under normal circumstances in a scenario like this I'd rather back something like binocular at 10's than Hurricane Fly at 4/6 etc, but these are not normal circumstances and Hurricane Fly has always threatened to be a true champion, one that will win a few and therefore I see next month as nothing more than a second champion hurdle victory for him. There is no reason one should 'have' to have a bet and therefore take on the favourite.

If we knew for a fact Binocular would return at 100% (something Mccoy said he wasn't when last winning at Kempton) then I guess a decent argument could be made the he would give Hurricane Fly a race and finish 2nd, but we just don't really know that yet do we?

The thing I always go back to is the beatings he gave solwhit, a very decent hurdler in his own right imo. If I thought for a minute Binocular would be capable of consistently desposing of Solwhit (something he did do once but I'm not sure Solwhit ran to form that day), the same way HF did, then I'd give him a real winning chance.

The key I think to Hurricane Fly's prowess is what I feel is his tactical speed. He cruises at any pace and Ruby just presses the right buttons and the right time. He doesn't seem to win by far but maybe he doesn't need to. Binocular on the other hand may be just getting a bit flat footed these days.
 
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trackside528 said:
A combination of having to make the running, jumping out to his left and the run coming after a similarly flat effort at Aintree is what has me thinking Binocular wasn't at his best.
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Fair enough.

It's a matter of interpretation, isn't it. :cool:

For me, Punchestown represented just about as genuine a performance as Binocular is likely to give, and is more representative than many of his other runs. And he ran out of stamina at Aintree; travelling well a long way before dropping tamely away, and it isn't really relevant. It wasn't a flat effort though, IMO, and Binocular doesn't have too many excuses. Even if you give him the benefit of a handful of lbs, the manner of Hurricane Fly's victory, clearly demonstrates - to me at any rate - his superiority.
 
Aragorn said:
You can't use Grandouet and Zarkandar in an argument against HF then forget that Unaccompanied, who split the two and won a Grade 1 this year, got smashed out of sight by HF. Admittedly on heavy ground but it all comes alike to the champ. The juvenile form is clearly strong but they all need to improve 15-20lbs from last year to get within 3 lengths of him and I haven't seen anything to suggest they will.

In effect you are betting that a 5yo, who have a shocking record anyway (Katchit's CH was so bad i'm almost inclined to ignore it!), are going to improve enough over a summer to be, in effect, as good as Istabraq all things being equal.

That bet would be about 50/1...
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You should take a huge hammer, Call Thor if you have to, and smash the hell out of juvenile form it is totally irrelevant.

It's like saying Al Ferof must beat Sprinter Sacre because he beat him before.

Doesn't work that was or we'd all be rich.

We got one guy telling us Overturn wouldn't beat Thousand Stars so Grandouet can't possible be good enough which is nonsense IMO.

What he's missing is Grandouet is such a good traveller it wouldn't matter a damn to him what's around him he just lobs away like he's out for a Sunday stroll.

Little doubt in my mind he'll exactly the same at Cheltenham and the only thing that will stop him from winning is Hurricane Fly's ability to travel just as well plus he looks visually faster at getting from 0 to 60 in a finish than Grandouet and most likley is.

Of the rest I'd have Rock N Ruby before Zarkandar I think he's massively overated which brings me back to the point that the Juvelie form isn't worth tuppence.
 
Grandouet is a place lay. Prepared to put my money where my mouth is on that if you'd like a sporting bet, Tanlic....name your stake
 
Still peddling the line that the Zarkandar is useless, yet thinks Grandouet can't be beat. What a crock of shite.
 
Hmmm, Al Ferof and Sprinter Sacre are over fences though Tanny so not a great counter argument. Fact is, Grandouet travelled last year but got beat and you haven't seen Zarkandar yet, so I'm not sure how you can just dismiss it without any real basis for doing so. If you're gonna start ramming your opinions down everyone's throats can you at least come up with something better than you know best.
 
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