The Road To The 2012 Champion Hurdle

Unfair mate I think I've put up a perfectly good case why the Grandouet of today is a far better stronger horse than he was last year. How can anyone possibly think he'll stop after he flew up the hill against Overturn beats the hell out of me.?



I'm afraid beating Kumbashwar who was as slow as they come over hurdles doesn't fill me with confidence that Zarkandar is any better than good.

His trainer said only today he's not even sure if he's improved since last year and that I would suggest will put the fear of death into his backers.
 
Tanlic said:
Unfair mate I think I've put up a perfectly good case why the Grandouet of today is a far better stronger horse than he was last year. How can anyone possibly think he'll stop after he flew up the hill against Overturn beats the hell out of me.?

I'm afraid beating Kumbeshwar who was as slow as they come over hurdles doesn't fill me with confidence that Zarkandar is any better than good.

His trainer said only today he's not even sure if he's improved since last year and that I would suggest will put the fear of death into his backers.
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I think Grandouet needed to fly away from Overturn and Brampour, two horses below the very top, in the International. He didn't, at least not for me.

As for Zarkandar, his Aintree form is nothing special but he is far better judged on his Cheltenham effort. He was perfectly entitled to be flat at Aintree given that he had had 3 tough races in a short space of time. He also had the mouth abscess to contend with. I think it pleasing that he won at all.

I am also coming to the conclusion that Nicholls being quietly confident, as he is about Zarkandar, is far better than when he is unnecessarily bullish.

Less than a week until we see what he can do. Hopefully the weather will not intervene.
 
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Simon said:
Still peddling the line that the Zarkandar is useless, yet thinks Grandouet can't be beat. What a crock of shite.
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The step up from winning the Triumph Hurdle to Champion Hurdle class is like trying to leap across the Grand Canyon on a push bike.

Katchit did it as did Kribensis but before them you have to go all the way back to one of the best hurdlers of all time in Persian War to find another.

Others like Celestial Halo, Oh So Risky and Pollardstown went close but they are few and far between.

Grandouet always gave me the impression he would do much better at 5 than he would at 4'

A big gangly 4 year old, he looked every bit like a horse who would improve with another year on his back. That has turned out to be the case as he has shown several times this season

Zarkandar on the otherhand was a compact well put together strong looking individual with less scope for improvemet.

Nichols is far from bullish about Zarkandar there simply aren't any vibes that suggest he even thinks he'll be good enough to run at Cheltenham so far. Time will tell.

Incidentally I never once said he was usless nor did I say Grandouet could not be beaten. Horses improve past others all the time. Even Arkle lost a few times early in his career.

You're pretty naive if you think that suggesting they can is a crock of ****

BTW Seen the pieman lately I'm starving ? :p
 
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Tanlic said:
Zarkandar on the otherhand was a compact well put together strong looking individual with less scope for improvemet.

Nichols is far from bullish about Zarkandar there simply aren't any vibes that suggest he even thinks he'll be good enough to run at Cheltenham so far. Time will tell.
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"He has come on really on well physically too, as he is a much bigger, stronger horse. And of course he also had a breathing operation in the summer.

He always made a noise when working and schooling and, if he had gone to Kempton first time up and finished down the field, I would have probably have had it done there and then and put him away for the season.

So, hopefully we have a stronger and cleaner-winded horse to go to war with this season."

I think that quote would suggest that Nicholls is pretty pleased with the horse's development over the summer. I think he has huge scope for improvement given that Nicholls wasn't expecting him to win at Kempton, let alone the Triumph. The whole thing came as a surprise so now he is over his problems, has got his breathing sorted, and has another year on his back, he could be anything.

Nicholls also seems pretty adamant that Zarkandar is his best Champion Hurdle hope ever and he also has Rock On Ruby trading pretty short for the race this year. That must tell you that he thinks he is every inch a Champion Hurdle contender. He might be wrong but I like him too.
 
Tanlic said:
The step up from winning the Triumph Hurdle to Champion Hurdle class is like trying to leap across the Grand Canyon on a push bike.

Katchit did it as did Kribensis but before them you have to go all the way back to one of the best hurdlers of all time in Persian War to find another.

Others like Celestial Halo, Oh So Risky and Pollardstown went close but they are few and far between.

Grandouet always gave me the impression he would do much better at 5 than he would at 4'

A big gangly 4 year old, he looked every bit like a horse who would improve with another year on his back. That has turned out to be the case as he has shown several times this season

Zarkandar on the otherhand was a compact well put together strong looking individual with less scope for improvemet.

Nichols is far from bullish about Zarkandar there simply aren't any vibes that suggest he even thinks he'll be good enough to run at Cheltenham so far. Time will tell.

Incidentally I never once said he was usless nor did I say Grandouet could not be beaten. Horses improve past others all the time. Even Arkle lost a few times early in his career.

You're pretty naive if you think that suggesting they can is a crock of ****

BTW Seen the pieman lately I'm starving ? :p
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I am just going to copy my previous post that you handily ignored.

I don't know how you can say Zarkandar's form is nothing special. He's won what was probably the strongest Triumph in years and he pissed it. Pretty much everything that's behind him and has run since has won, including Grade 1 winner Unaccompanied, Grandouet who's won three times (should really be 4), including a Bula impressively where he thrashed the likes of Overturn and Menorah and the Grade 1 at Punchestown. Sailors Warn's a proven mid 140s animal, as is Third Intention and Local Hero. Brampour's won a Greatwood, Smad Place won the Holloway's Hurdle at Ascot the other day impressively, Molotof's won three this season including a Grade 2 at Ascot, Houblon Des Obeaux won a handicap on New Year's Day, First Fandango recently pissed up at Leicester with top weight and even the likes of Tillahow, High Ransom and Aikideau who were strung all over Prestbury Park behind Zarkandar have won their races. He also won the race in the quickest time for years and there's no way of telling Grandouet would've won at Aintree. I don't think he would have. Grandouet's certainly improved this year, too, but there's no reason Zarkandar hasn't done so just as much.
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You also seem to be greatly exaggerating Grandouet's form to prove your own argument. He beat an over the top Overturn 4 lengths, a horse who was beaten 17 lengths in the Champion last year. Hardly evidence to my eyes that he's going to win this year's Champion. Overturn could have conceivably got very close to him had he been in top form, and Overturn was also beaten further by a Binocular described as well below his best.

I also see you like to make things up to suit your arguments. 'Nicholls isn't even sure he'll go to Cheltenham'. Where in the name of god have you got that from? All the talk on his blog, Twitter and elsewhere are that he's going to run next weekend and then in the Champion and that he's by far the best horse Nicholls has had for the race. They seem bullish enough to me, while recognising Hurricane Fly will be hard to beat. You've also made up the fact he hasn't developed because Nicholls has said he has, and they've also given him a breathing op and have said his work has improved significantly. So making things up simply won't do.
 
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That was Overturns 11th run of the year and third in a month. Grandouet was also receiving 4lbs and Brampour was too close for comfort; he beat him further in last years triumph.
 
Just my view, but the "over the top" Overturn probably ran the race of his life, considering the course wouldn't be his ideal, much as his earlier form suggested he should, and Grandouet did only what he had to to beat him, which renders distances and weights somewhat irrelevant.
Having progressed throughout the year, and winning the most relevant trial convincingly, Grandouet remains much the most credible challenger for HF's crown that we've seen this season.
 
Highly doubt it. General consensus seems to be the horse needs a strong pace on good ground. I'd be amazed if they went the workld hurdle route with him.
 
Oscar Wells was my banker of the meeting last year and I think he is a very good horse but I am really surprised so many people here fancying him to be placed in the Champion Hurdle.
He is a good prospect for fences next seasin but I can not see him having the speed to be placed in a Champion Hdl on good ground.
 
Without labouring on the point too much Overturn while not top class he is a first rate trial horse when it comes to the Champion Hurdle.

Horses like Grandouet, Hurricane Fly, Binocular etc can anly beat what's put in front of them. Take Hurricane Fly beating Solwhit by short margins for example. Solwhit ran no better than Overturn in his CH which made the earlier from look meaningless

The fact is Grandouet has done everything asked of him and like Hurricane Fly looked good doing it appeals to me and I simply can't see him not being involved in the finish unlike Overturn who will be beaten out of ssssight if he turns up.
 
Simon said:
I am just going to copy my previous post that you handily ignored.



You also seem to be greatly exaggerating Grandouet's form to prove your own argument. He beat an over the top Overturn 4 lengths, a horse who was beaten 17 lengths in the Champion last year. Hardly evidence to my eyes that he's going to win this year's Champion. Overturn could have conceivably got very close to him had he been in top form, and Overturn was also beaten further by a Binocular described as well below his best.

I also see you like to make things up to suit your arguments. 'Nicholls isn't even sure he'll go to Cheltenham'. Where in the name of god have you got that from? All the talk on his blog, Twitter and elsewhere are that he's going to run next weekend and then in the Champion and that he's by far the best horse Nicholls has had for the race. They seem bullish enough to me, while recognising Hurricane Fly will be hard to beat. You've also made up the fact he hasn't developed because Nicholls has said he has, and they've also given him a breathing op and have said his work has improved significantly. So making things up simply won't do.
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I think you should read more Simon I never made anything up.

Bullish? you have got to be joking if he makes one more excuse for the horse before Saturday I'll scream.

The Paul Nicholls is not even sure if he has improved was said on Timeform Radio 2 days ago. If he doesn't know if he's improved how could he possibly know if he's Champion Hurdle material?

Paul Nichols has now repeated that again yesterday saying "He's a hell of a horse to know if he has improved. At home he's workmanlike but on the track he's different. He's been working OK but is obviously better on the track" How can PN say that then in the next breath say he's devloped??? Into what?

He's also making his excuses already should the horse be beaten on Saturday.

This is not his target??? Neither were Hurricane Fly's Binoculars or Grandouets races Mr Nichols but they all won.

There can be no excuse if he is any sort of threat to Hurricane Fly and co he's carrying apoxy 10.12lb. Relate that to Persian War carrying 11st 13lbs and winning the race before winning the CH and Zarkandar must be the biggest certainty to ever run in the race if he is any good at all..

Either that or he's just another ordinary Triumph Hurdle winner and won't be winning any Champion Hurdle.

Best of luck with him if you have bet the horse and I hope for all concerend he runs a big race.

If Grandouet isn't any good then the Champion Hurdle looks decidedly one sided and it could do with a boost
 
Tanlic, the Triumph form has been well advertised this season and has been held up time and again. Grandouet has clearly improved from that (as have Brampour and Unaccompanied) and to dismiss it as "irrelevant" is disingenuous at best.

It's perfectly reasonable for Nicholls to remain cautious about Zarkander's level, until such time as he has shown some form in open company - especially if the horse isn't a great worker at home. But granted a similar level of improvement to the other ex-juveniles, he should be there or thereabouts......fighting out the places at a respectful distance behind Hurricane Fly.

He does need to hack-up off 151 at Newbury if he is to be taken seriously though, I'll give you that much.
 
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When I think what price the Fly woud be if he was off 151 Grassy it makes me wonder why he's not odds on for this. He'd be halfway back to Ireland by the time the rest got home.

Even when it was announced Ruby was riding his odds have barely moved

Time yet for the Ditchet crew to have their millions on.

The betting on the day may tell us more.
 
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Tanlic said:
Time yet for the Ditchet crew to have their millions on.

The betting on the day may tell us more.
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This thought had occurred to me.

With Jacob taking the ride in the Champion Hurdle it would have been understandable for him to ride him in this, whether Ruby was available or not.

The fact that Ruby was switched to ride him immediately (not unsurprising in itself) must mean that they are very keen to have him on board.

With the pessimistic comments like "we'll be happy if he's in the first 6" (like hell they would) are they eyeing up a right good old gamble? If he is a genuine Champion contender then he is lobbed in, he'll be fit (maybe not 110%) but fit enough. If that is the case then his current price looks more than fair.

You can only think he is too short if you doubt that he is as good as Nicholls thinks, or if you think he won't be fit enough. I suppose you might think something else is even better treated but that seems unlikely.

If Nicholls and co can guarantee that he is that good, and that he is fit, then he looks a prime candidate to lump lump and lump it on.

Interesting to see the betting on the day. Just bloody hope it's on.
 
Bird's Nest was beaten off 10-2 or thereabouts in this race before just about winning the Champion Hurdle.

Vicario Di Bray was a 4/7 shot off a ridiculously low mark (equates to 121 on today's scale) and couldn't win.

Caveat bettor.
 
Local bookmaker is advertising-in shop- 11/10 hurricane fly nr/nb.Been to the Halifax today to unload in the morning! This will be my largest ever bet.
 
It's a local firm.Lucas.shops in Cardiff and only one this far west.I'll be there first thing.he is also doing ante post all races- if you take their prices and your selection is a n/r you can have another pick to the same stake(which I thought was pretty good).I use them regularly,very customer friendly,only had bets up to 500 mainly on horses and rugby.Cant see a problem them taking it tomorrow
 
Originally Posted by SteveM
But why are Binocular's two best runs (Cheltenham and Ascot) "highly debatable" and HF's set in stone, I just don't get it.

Grasshopper said:
Because NONE of the horses who finished behind Binocular - nor Binocular himself - have, in any subsequent run, upheld the awarded rating of 172.

None of them.

Fact.

Horses who finished behind Hurricane Fly (Thousand Stars, Oscar Whisky, Binocular), or horses with proven Graded form who have subsequently finished behind Hurricane Fly (Unaccompanied) have all upheld his fkin form!!!

FFS! It's fkin OBVIOUS!!!
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I think you’re confusing obvious with simplistic.

No one is questioning that HF has the best form (along with Binocular) and I have said that HF deserves to be favourite. I contest that he should be odds-on however and think he represents the poorest value of any horse in the Festival ante-post market. Consequently I’m happy to take him on.

Binocular btw has run to RPRs of 172 twice (at Ascot and Cheltenham), so he has run to the same high level at least twice, whereas HF has run to personal bests of 171-173 in his last three. Admittedly HF appears to be close to his best at the right time, but Binocular is also showing that he is returning to form in time. So it should be close between the pair of them. And like I say it is not impossible that one or two of the less exposed will improve past both of them.
 
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