The Road To The 2012 Champion Hurdle

Steve, you are just regurgitating the same point, and quote RPR ratings as if they are fact and therefore back-up your argument.

They don't, because RPR's are just an expression of someone's opinion. And that opinion is no more or less valid than yours, mine or anyone elses. If you ignore the RPR's for a minute and use the OR or Timeform ratings given earlier in the thread instead, you'll find that they blow a hole in your argument. :cool:
 
Grasshopper said:
Steve, you are just regurgitating the same point, and quote RPR ratings as if they are fact and therefore back-up your argument.

They don't, because RPR's are just an expression of someone's opinion. And that opinion is no more or less valid than yours, mine or anyone elses. If you ignore the RPR's for a minute and use the OR or Timeform ratings given earlier in the thread instead, you'll find that they blow a hole in your argument. :cool:
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I'm not arguing for anything other than the right to take HF on at current odds. And this consists of more than just Binocular. You seem to have missed that I am arguing that HF should be favourite (but not odds-on).

RPRs are based on something more that just opinion, but assuming that were the case why are others ratings not. You can't just dismiss RPRs because you don't like what they are telling you.
 
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But the price of the horse is based on the risk, and calculation that a bookmakers plays. He's odds on becuase if he wasnt he'd be getting hammered. If Bet 365 went 2/1 they would get battered untilt they went odds...therefore price in now correct.
 
You didn't just say he shouldn't be odds on, Steve, you said he should be around 7/2. There's a difference.
 
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OTB said:
But the price of the horse is based on the risk, and calculation that a bookmakers plays. He's odds on becuase if he wasnt he'd be getting hammered. If Bet 365 went 2/1 they would get battered untilt they went odds...therefore price in now correct.
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We've a difference of perception in that case. I couldn't back him at 2/1 against, like I said earlier I'd want about 7/2. As I'm not going to get that I would: 1) leave the race alone if I thought it a one-horse race; or 2) take him on as it's the Champion Hurdle.

As you will have guessed, I've opted for the latter.
 
Grey said:
You didn't just say he shouldn't be odds on, Steve, you said he should be around 7/2. There's a difference.
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I did say he shouldn't be odds on (repeatedly). I also said I'd want 7/2 against to back him (although don't expect to get it) when asked. His right price would be odds-against between these, imo (as I will only back horses at bigger odds than the chance I believe them to have).
 
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SteveM said:
I'm not arguing for anything other than the right to take HF on at current odds. And this consists of more than just Binocular. You seem to have missed that I am arguing that HF should be favourite (but not odds-on).

RPRs are based on something more that just opinion, but assuming that were the case why are others ratings not. You can't just dismiss RPRs because you don't like what they are telling you.
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Steve, you are arguing that Hurricane Fly and Binocular are/were at the same level at their very best.......and using RPR's to prop-up your argument. This assertion is the only thing I'm contesting.

I'm not dismissing the RPR's because they don't fit my argument. I'm dismissing them because I think they are wrong. There is a difference.
 
Grasshopper said:
Steve, you are arguing that Hurricane Fly and Binocular are/were at the same level at their very best.......and using RPR's to prop-up your argument. This assertion is the only thing I'm contesting.

I'm not dismissing the RPR's because they don't fit my argument. I'm dismissing them because I think they are wrong. There is a difference.
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Okay then I can accept that. On the other hand I saw Binocular at Ascot and Cheltenham and know in my mind that on those two days (at least) I would have backed Binocular against anything HF has put up.

But don't go telling me that Binocular hasn't backed up his form, he has. He is less consistent at the highest level due to the problems outlined, but at his best can certainly live with the Hurricane Flys of this world.

My fear for both of them is that this is not a two horse race.
 
Binocular has backed up his Champion Hurdle form in subsequent runs - it's the level of that CH form that we're disputing.

For me, hindsight shows that it's mid-160's at best, and he probably ran to a similar mark (probably a bit lower) behind HF in Punchestown.
 
Bar the Bull said:
You are both blinded by the fact that you won big on your respective horses when they won their Champion Hurdles.

Too much hot air for me.
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I don't think this is fair. I can't see how I'm blinded by Binocular as I'm prepared to take on Binocular (and HF). I think the race is up for grabs and as soon as we know for sure who is running there will be big value among those horses that are not Hurricane Fly.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Binocular hasn't shown decent form in years, and HF's form isn't flawless.

For all that the former might recapture it, and the latter might be way better than his form.
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I don't think anyone would disagree with this, although it's harsh to say Binocular hasn't shown decent form for years. His last run was quite decent.
 
duty_calls.png
 
Guilty as charged. In my own defence, I've had HF onside since long before he won his Champion Hurdle.

There will be no more from me on this thread before the race. Best to let the horse do the talking.

:cool:
 
From a man who rode a Champion Hurdler

I think Binocluar is the best hurdler of all time and so do I but I'm not sure if I agree with me cos I do like Hurrcane Fly too but Night Nurse would have beaten the three of them

Paddy Broderick .;)

That should settle all disputes
 
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Tanlic said:
From a man who rode a Champion Hurdler

I think Binocluar is the best hurdler of all time and so do I but I'm not sure if I agree with me cos I do like Hurrcane Fly too but Night Nurse would have beaten the three of them

Paddy Broderick .;)

That should settle all disputes
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Was he pissed?
 
Don't think you're dreaming Harry - he was very highly regarded as a Novice but has had problems since he moved to Pipe's, tbh though I think they'd be extremely happy with a top 5 finish.
 
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