The Road To The 2012 Champion Hurdle

I think we can all agree that on his day Bino is class.5/1 is about right in my opinion with regards to consistency.5/1 is only value for me if it runs it's race and this a big if.Even then you are banking on HF not improving.
 
His trainer is very consistent at getting the best out of his horses during those few days in March
 
links781 said:
I think we can all agree that on his day Bino is class.5/1 is about right in my opinion with regards to consistency.5/1 is only value for me if it runs it's race and this a big if.Even then you are banking on HF not improving.
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Binocular accorded an RPR of 170 for yesterday (HF's best 173). Not hard - in the circumstances - to imagine the former finding improvement on that figure also.
Have Timeform rated the race yet?
 
reet hard said:
Binocular accorded an RPR of 170 for yesterday (HF's best 173). Not hard - in the circumstances - to imagine the former finding improvement on that figure also.
Have Timeform rated the race yet?
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Timeform's initial rating for the race was 167 - the same figure he ran to in the 2010 Champion, and bettering the 165+ of the Christmas Hurdle.
 
reet hard said:
Thanks, Rory.
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I say initial, as it was on the database less than an hour after the performance - a commendable policy by Timeform, but obviously open to change after due diligence. My gut feeling is that there will be no tweaking in this case though.
 
rorydelargy said:
Timeform's initial rating for the race was 167 - the same figure he ran to in the 2010 Champion, and bettering the 165+ of the Christmas Hurdle.
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I hadn't realised the Christmas Hurdle was rated so highly. Rock On Ruby looks sure to appreciate the test of the Champion Hurdle so perhaps he is being a little overlooked.
 
Zenyatta said:
I hadn't realised the Christmas Hurdle was rated so highly. Rock On Ruby looks sure to appreciate the test of the Champion Hurdle so perhaps he is being a little overlooked.
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Would agree with that, although there have been noises about Nicholls running him under a big weight in the County Hurdle. Think he deserves a crack at the Champion myself.
 
I actually think he probably is you know. On lines through Overturn, a fairly reliable yardstick, both he and Binocular are a little way clear of Grandouet. Rock On Ruby beat Overturn 8 lengths at levels but Grandouet could only beat him 4 lengths in receipt of 4lbs. Even if you assume that Overturn was below par at Kempton then Grandouet still has a bit to find. And, in addition, Rock On Ruby looks likely to improve for the test that the Champion Hurdle provides given his form over further as a novice.

The problem is that he could run a cracker and finish 4th. I get the impression that he's possibly just a touch short of the required level. I do like him as a horse though so would be happy to be proven wrong. He might be an EW bet in the 'without Hurricane Fly market' on the day. He could just slip under the radar and the current 8/1 looks fair.

As far as the County goes I hadn't heard anything but my immediate impression was that he deserves a shot at the big one. I also heard that Noel Fehily had been booked to ride so that must signal some intent to run. Nicholls could be 4 handed with Zarkandar, Rock On Ruby, Celestial Halo and Brampour. I certainly think Rock On Ruby is better than Brampour and Celestial Halo so they would strike me as more likely candidates should Nicholls wish to frame the weights for the County.

On a side note, Nicholls must have a pretty good line on all the English challengers to the Champion Hurdle through the likes of Rock On Ruby, Brampour and Celestial Halo. Is the fact that he is adamant that Zarkandar is the best of his significant given that the others are not too far behind the best of the rest? Although his win on Friday was only workmanlike I think it was an excellent effort for a horse of his experience, especially with the slow pace massively against him. I actually thought he won with some authority in the end and reject suggestions that he was a fortunate winner. He came past Get Me Out Of Here readily and immediately looked about him as he hit the front. He isn't flashy but he shows a really nice change of gear to put his races to bed, he jumps well, he stays well and he will battle. In short, he needs to improve but has a lot of the right attributes. I suspect Nicholls running him in the Betfair was a shrewd move. I am sure the experience of the hustle and bustle of such a race will have done him the world of good.

The Champion Hurdle, for all Hurricane Fly's brilliance, is suddenly a much more interesting race again.
 
Zenyatta said:
He came past Get Me Out Of Here readily and immediately looked about him as he hit the front.
.
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That was about the same time GMOOH lost X amount of lengths when being chronically hampered though, wasn't it? At a very minimum GMOOH would have taken Zarkandar to a photo finish.
 
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Marble said:
That was about the same time GMOOH lost X amount of lengths when being chronically hampered though. At a very minimum GMOOH would have taken Zarkandar to a photo finish.
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Zarkandar came through to lead after the last and did so with some authority in my opinion.

Get Me Out Of Here was in front of him at the time (though only just), and if he had not been hampered then he might have been further in front. However, I still feel that Zarkandar would have picked him up given the way he came through horses and pricked his ears when he hit the front. It's impossible to be dogmatic about it because we will never know. That is just my impression.
 
For me, I watched GMOOH the whole way. He was going so well and was foot perfect the whole way. He does look a more nimble horse than the likes of Zarkandar, and I don't dispute Zarkandar pricked his ears, or stuck his neck out at the finish.

But the way GMOOH was hampered, well it must be like running full pelt into a brick wall and then trying to run again. I don't actually think it's bad form. The winners run well in a tough handicap, and I think GMOOH would be a top chasing prospect if he could jump a fence (which apparently he can't - well I'd like the see him try first!)

If they now run him in the Coral Cup they have absolutely lost the plot...

However, as you alude to, it's all comparative, and realistically how it will all translate into the Champion Hurdle is a hugely subjective argument as we have already observed on here.
 
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Overturn's a highly consistent galloper who wins his races by setting a strong, even pace and maintaining it, and ideally needs a stiff test over a flattish course to be seen at his best (witness his Chester Cup and Plate wins on the flat), so neither a sharp Kempton nor an undulating Cheltenham would be the best place to judge his opposition on.
Might also be worth bearing in mind that Grandouet was running all over him approaching the last in the Bula, and only did what he had to, to beat him.
 
reet hard said:
Overturn's a highly consistent galloper who wins his races by setting a strong, even pace and maintaining it, and ideally needs a stiff test over a flattish course to be seen at his best (witness his Chester Cup and Plate wins on the flat), so neither a sharp Kempton nor an undulating Cheltenham would be the best place to judge his opposition on.
Might also be worth bearing in mind that Grandouet was running all over him approaching the last in the Bula, and only did what he had to, to beat him.
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I'm not a great fan of Grandouet, but this is a valid point. Reliable performers aren't necessarily reliable yardsticks if simply using collateral form/weight as measures.
 
links781 said:
I think we can all agree that on his day Bino is class.5/1 is about right in my opinion with regards to consistency.5/1 is only value for me if it runs it's race and this a big if.Even then you are banking on HF not improving.
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I'd agree that is about the right price for Binocular, but the right price for HF should be only a little shorter. As things stand HF, at odds on, is about the worst piece of value I've ever seen at this stage in the ante post market.
 
Zarkandar's performance starting to look pretty decent in the context of Paul Nicholls being 1/33 for February. Zarkandar being his only winner, and in a really tough race.

I suppose the concern would be whether the race will have left a mark.

Nicholls is supposed to be giving more details later today so that should tell us more. However, with such a poor month you must think that it is fairly widespread, possibly with the exception of the big guns in the top yard, Kauto et al. According to Clive Smith he is fine, not that the 'problem' might be impossible to see until they race.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I read somewhere that flat horses are often scoped before a Group 1. Does this happen on the flat, is it horse **** or what?
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Well they are, but it is sort of horse shite as well.

To understand about bleeding (from the lungs) you need to know that most horses bleed most of the time (in varying degrees, measured in fifths) in a race and are quite likely to if worked to any meaningful extent.

So a horse may be scoped (after working) before a big race to ensure that nothing is seriously wrong, but that’s all it will really tell you – whether anything is seriously wrong or not and the work itself ought to tell you that anyway. The sound of a horse gurgling for example means it if gurgling in its own blood (trainer euphemism = muck) that is often enough not to bother scoping.

If a horse is bleeding from the nostrils after a race it is actually bleeding from its lungs and has a wind pipe full of blood (i.e. five-fifths), but it wouldn’t show with a horse bleeding two-fifths or one-fifth for example unless it were scoped.
 
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I have been having a think about this race.

I am a perverse (and perverted) hoor. But my perversity is what is important in this thread.

I hate hype and I hate when people are so convinced that they are right.

So I want Hurricane Fly to lose, just to p!ss off people like Grasshopper and Bobbyjo.

He's not that bloody good.

It's like the way I want there to be no God, just to p!ss off religious ould ones. And the way I wanted Ireland to lose that Grand Slam decider a while ago to p!ss off all the people who bang on all day about rugby in pubs and workplaces around the country.

So there.
 
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I suppose by the time you find out the answer to the God thing, you won't be able to gloat about it, so your stance is understandable
 
Apologies. Not gloat. Just revel in the pain of others, although your perverse nature means that you are unlikely to meet God even if he does exist.
 
Pain is relative.

If others are hurting, it makes me (relatively) better off.

Re the God thing.

I understand that not believing in God is a sin. But I would try to get off on a technicality, given that I have kept sodomy, divorce and abortions to a minimum.
 
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Bar the Bull said:
Pain is relative.

If others are hurting, it makes me (relatively) better off.

Re the God thing.

I understand that not believing in God is a sin. But I would try to get off on a technicality, given that I have kept sodomy, divorce and abortions to a minimum.
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Tremendous. :lol:

Bar, I refer you to my previous Koresh post. You have me bang to rights, and I deserve your wrath. :cool:

None of which changes the fact that you, Stevie-boy and others are all destined to get f*cked royally in the ass, when Hurricane Fly wins the Champion Hurdle. Given your previous with sodomy, at least you know what's coming to you. ;)

:D
 
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