The Road To The 2012 Champion Hurdle
- Thread starter EC1
- Start date
granger
Senior Jockey
I must admit that I knew nothing of him until this morning
He's actually a bit better than average on objective analysis,but I'd agree he is not the best of winners. The thing is HF is no better at his best than Binocular was at his best. This would back up those who see value in something else beating both of them... which is of course quite possible.
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DO has supplied some figures relating to the pair of them that make interesting reading and I hope he will agree are worth reproducing here. They suggest to me it is far from a one-horse race.
This analysis confirms to me the visual impression I had that on the day of his Champion Hurdle win that Binocular was a very good horse, albeit below the very best.
Hurricane Fly’s Grade 1 wins outside novice company:
2012/Feb – Bt Oscars Well (OR 157) 7lbs+, => HF = 164++
2011/May – Bt Thousand Stars (163) 6lbs+ => HF = 169+
2011/March – Bt Peddlers Cross (162) 2lbs => HF = 164(+)
2011/Jan – Bt Solwhit (164) 4lbs => HF = 168
2010/Dec – Bt Solwhit (165) 2lbs => HF 167
2010/Dec – Bt Solwhit (165) 2lbs => HF 167
2010/Apr – Bt Solwhit (166) 1lb => HF 167
Grandouet’s 2011-12 form
Dec – Bt Overturn (OR168) => Grandouet 168+
Nov – Bt March Warbler (148) 9lbs++ => Grandouet 157++
Nov – Btng Celestial Halo (160) when fell => Grandouet 158+
When Binocular won the 2010 CH, the ORs of those behind were:
165, 168, 168, 161, 168 (Solwhit), 164, 155, 164, 164
Khyber Kim (165) got a 4lbs+ beating.
Celestial Halo got a 14lbs beating.
Solwhit got a 20lbs beating.
Binocular conservatively ran to 170 that day.
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Overturn OR 168
Thousand Stars 163
Oscar Wells 157
So Grandouet's form is something to be wary of? Lordy. Thousand Stars is a superior hurdler to Overturn, and I suspect Oscar Wells will finish ahead of Overturn next month too.
Are we saying that's Overturn's best form [168?] is better than Hurricane Fly's Champion Hurdle win last year?
Wasn't Overturn beaten out of sight in last year's Champion Hurdle? Does his run over two miles at Cheltenham then have less merit than his run behind Grandouet in December?
And are we using Solwhit's CH run as a barometer of his form when he was nearly pulled out of the race ..and probably shouldn't have run
Sigh
Roll on March. I'm doing a Grassy and retiring from this thread too.
Thousand Stars 163
Oscar Wells 157
So Grandouet's form is something to be wary of? Lordy. Thousand Stars is a superior hurdler to Overturn, and I suspect Oscar Wells will finish ahead of Overturn next month too.
Are we saying that's Overturn's best form [168?] is better than Hurricane Fly's Champion Hurdle win last year?
Wasn't Overturn beaten out of sight in last year's Champion Hurdle? Does his run over two miles at Cheltenham then have less merit than his run behind Grandouet in December?
And are we using Solwhit's CH run as a barometer of his form when he was nearly pulled out of the race ..and probably shouldn't have run
Sigh
Roll on March. I'm doing a Grassy and retiring from this thread too.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I saw him come out of the shower just now.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Unaccompanied misses Cheltenham.
How could that be?
On the other hand DO's figures show that Grandouet (for example) is progressing at a fast rate and has run to very high levels already. With a bit more progress he'd be on a par with virtually anything around. There are others to consider also, but he seems entitled to run a big race and at respective odds seems worth siding with.
granger
Senior Jockey
Well done Binocular. Hopefully he is supported in numbers on the day
I thought he did not just jump well but brilliantly and travelled with a fluency that we have not seen since his CH win . He is much the most serious challenger to HF in my opinion .I cannot imagine the 9-1 will last long he should be about 4-1
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Agree with every word, but would still like to think the stable know why he ran better?
I agree with that. When they said on C4 that Ladbrokes were quoting 9-2 I thought that sounded generous, so I was surprised that was much the shortest quote of any bookmaker. I've already backed the Fly but I took enough of the 9-1 Binoucular to leave me with a small profit should he win.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I've said all long this is going to be tougher for Hurricane Fly than last year. Binocular and Grandouet are much superior to Oscar Whisky at 2 miles and with the former looking more like his old self there will be some firewroks come the big day.
Actually I think it's a huge insult to Binocular he's not 2nd fav and why Zarkandar is I can't work out.
Zarkandar was impressively workmanlike to beat Get Me Out Of Here who is a stone below CH class. His form is on a par with that of Menorah's and that proved to be way below what is requitred and this is a better race this year IMO.
The way he fought and won would indicate to me that he was pretty straight yesterday, so I wouldn't expect too much improvement
Actually I think it's a huge insult to Binocular he's not 2nd fav and why Zarkandar is I can't work out.
Zarkandar was impressively workmanlike to beat Get Me Out Of Here who is a stone below CH class. His form is on a par with that of Menorah's and that proved to be way below what is requitred and this is a better race this year IMO.
The way he fought and won would indicate to me that he was pretty straight yesterday, so I wouldn't expect too much improvement
M
Marble
Guest
Agreed,especially on the odds of Zarkandar and Binocular.
The odds are right about one thing though, if Hurricane Fly stays sound they're all chasing second place.
That said I'd make him slightly odds against at present, maybe 6/5, rather than the odds-on punters are being quoted right now.
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Yes a bit more like it. He's still getting there, but more of a zip in evidence and as you say he jumped nicely. I happy enough with my positions on him at 8/1, 12/1 and 16/1 and will be sleeping more soundly than HF supporters on at much skinnier prices. I'd say he has a real good chance of being placed in the Champion and maybe winning it. I'd say the same for HF and two or three others, but the market should be much closer now, as it should have been before. There's not much between a handful of them (as one or two of us might have mentioned).
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
EC1
On a break
i'd rather sleep with a grand on an even money shot than a grand on a 10/1 shot mesen..i'd be waking up to winnings 50% of the time
He put on a show that day. The year before I put up Punjabi to beat him, but actually think Binocular probably should have won that thriller. I saw then just how good this horse can be.
