The Road To The 2012 Champion Hurdle

Bar the Bull said:
I knew there was no such thing as God. An unsatisfactory race for me. As Overturn loomed, I remembered a post from Luke ages ago saying he would be the type for a boiler in the CH one day.
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I backed him without the fav but in the outright Market I backed him to trade out at very short prices.Thought I was getting a right touch at one stage.
 
swedish chef said:
Hurricane Fly and Binocular didn't run their race today - Overturn put in his best hurdles performance so far and stable in great form - I couldn't rate Rock On Ruby any more than 169+ to be honest.
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I wouldn't go so far as to say they both didn't run their race but I would say the race was run to suit neither.
I felt Ruby & AP misjudged things thinking they were going to come back to them off such a strong pace but they didn't - fair play to the first 2 - thoroughly deserved on the day - whether this will stand up as a vintage race, I'm not so sure.
And judging by what Henderson was saying afterwards he wasn't happy - neither was AP - face like thunder
 
Overturn to my eye definitely set a faster pace in the Christmas hurdle - I think everyone was expecting him to go off like a scalded cat, but a great tactical ride by Overturn's jockey and Rock On Ruby was in the right place at the right time - he already proved he could quicken up as well as Binocular and it's not a surprise he won given such a head start off a good but steady pace. Personally off a true fast pace I don't think there's that much between the three and still think Hurricane Fly is the slightly better horse overall at this moment in time but ROR possibly still improving - I do believe ROR has improved past Binocular though.
 
jinnyj said:
I wouldn't go so far as to say they both didn't run their race but I would say the race was run to suit neither.
I felt Ruby & AP misjudged things thinking they were going to come back to them off such a strong pace but they didn't - fair play to the first 2 - thoroughly deserved on the day - whether this will stand up as a vintage race, I'm not so sure.
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I agree with all this.
 
I thought HF ran to form with Oscars Well on the better ground. Maybe HF is not as good as everyone thinks and he just got found out today. Personally I didn't think the form of last years race was great (and I'm a fan of Oscar Whiskey but over further) and you could say HF has been beating Solwhit, Thousand Stars and Oscars Well in Ireland for the last few years. But I wonder was the fast ground today a bigger factor. It was softer last year. They just didn't come back to him and he couldn't quicken on that ground.

The one I would take out of it is Zarkander. Drifted like a barge on the exchanges and Nicholls was negative before the race. Ridden like there was something wrong. Stayed on like a train after the last. I think he will win next year with a more agressive ride. Nothing in the Supreme to trouble this current CH crop.
 
Hurricane was not at his very best but he is overrated and has not posted any fast time before,


Rock On Ruby best horse on the day and looks the one to be next season, the have found the key with him, needs to be fresh and a galloping track, his form in the Gerry Feilden was wha he reolicated today and was good enough


the only danger for next season is Spirit Son or an improved Grandouet
 
jinnyj said:
And judging by what Henderson was saying afterwards he wasn't happy - neither was AP - face like thunder
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Wouldn't be the first time AP was mad with Henderson - after his first Champion Hurdle defeat AP was accusing Hendo of sending the horse to the race unfit.
 
My ratings previous to race

Hurricane Fly 171+
Rock On Ruby 169+
Binocular 169
So Young 161+
Celestial Halo 161
Zarkandar 160+
Grandouet 160+
Thousand Stars 160
Oscars Well 159+
Overturn 159
Brampour 156
Zaidpour 154+


My ratings for the race

Rock On Ruby 169+
Overturn 165 – my highest rating for him previously was 164
Hurricane Fly 163
Binocular 162
Zarkandar 162+
Oscars Well 161+
Brampour 157+
Zaidpour 156+

Conclusion: The first two rode a tactically perfect race – McCoy & Walsh totally misjudged it and if they blame the horses under them, then they are just hiding their embarrassment – they simply dropped a bollock and were probably watching each other. They let the race get away from them.
 
Too much is being made of the jockeys here IMO. It wasnt a complicated race in its running and this is not a case of "on the day" for ROR but "at this time"
 
Timeform's provisional assessment of ratings is available here and also looks at pace analysis of Champion Hurdle with rather debunks the theory that the first 2 were let loose on a soft lead.
 
when i checked the sporting life site after the race they gave the first race at 3.56.6?

RP gives 3.52.70 which i assume is correct

i timed the race quickly just after it was done and thought i'd got it wrong when i read the SL site..wonder where they got that time from
 
EC1 said:
when i checked the sporting life site after the race they gave the first race at 3.56.6?

RP gives 3.52.70 which i assume is correct

i timed the race quickly just after it was done and thought i'd got it wrong when i read the SL site..wonder where they got that time from
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I would imagine it was a deliberate attempt to confuse you EC1 - and thus leave team TH at a loss as to the exact state of the ground. FF behind this you will find:p:p
 
davidjohnson said:
Timeform's provisional assessment of ratings is available here and also looks at pace analysis of Champion Hurdle with rather debunks the theory that the first 2 were let loose on a soft lead.
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I have the greatest respect for Timeform David but I do believe the ground was faster than the official description. Would this make a difference?
 
I'd probably agree with you with regards the ground. More a case of simply good rather than any good to soft in places. What the ground was wouldn't have an effect as the sectionals take into account of ground conditions because the calculations at the bottom are the finishing speeds in relation to the overall time. i.e if the overall time is slower because of ground, the closing sectional will also be slower. If the overall time is slower because of pace, then the closing sectional would be faster.
 
davidjohnson said:
I'd probably agree with you with regards the ground. More a case of simply good rather than any good to soft in places. What the ground was wouldn't have an effect as the sectionals take into account of ground conditions because the calculations at the bottom are the finishing speeds in relation to the overall time. i.e if the overall time is slower because of ground, the closing sectional will also be slower. If the overall time is slower because of pace, then the closing sectional would be faster.
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Ok thanks - personally I don't know too much about sectionals or times - I just judge a race around a horse or horses I think have run to their official ratings. Then form an opinion on how the race was run after watching half a dozen times. Is possible they went nice even sectionals allowing the front two to have plenty in the tank at the business end?

I just watched it twice more and am still of the opinion that that the jockeys got it wrong on the 2 market leaders - On this occasion I will have to disagree with Timeform's analysis. (there is a hint of a possibility that HF wasn't right and McCoy made an error in tracking him all the way round.)
 
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