The Road To The 2012 Champion Hurdle
- Thread starter EC1
- Start date
Surely they will switch OW to fences now? Or at least step him up in trip. He does not have the gears for a champion, or by the looks of it the ability either. He could make a clasy novice chaser though and early enough in the season to switch.
She passed me on Saturday and was saying that the horses are all over the place. Some running well, others running very flat. There is something up.
Great performance by Thousand Stars.
That's how good Hurricane Fly is.
Did TS not have a stone in hand on the ratings?
On The Bridle
At the Start
Extremely impressive, on his seasonal debut too. So disappointed with OW there, thought I had a great antepost proposition
I wouldn't throw away the docket just yet.
EC1
On a break
...twit.
when race got down to a 4 runner non event someone had to take the bull by the horns though Steve..he was still shit value imo before and after the withdrawals...as soon as you saw him take a good strong pace on you should have hammered into him in running tbh..if you really believed him better than oscar.
...I wouldn't try too hard to talk yourself out of this one old mate ...I thought I was being restrained leaving it at "twit".
I find it interesting that he started at 5/4 favourite after being third in the betting behind the pair in second and third.
I find it interesting that he started at 5/4 favourite after being third in the betting behind the pair in second and third.
Last edited:
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
He sure did, which is why his ante-post odds for the Morgiana were insulting verging on laughable.
TS is rated 164 or thereabouts and won in the style of just such a horse - paying a handsome compliment to Hurricane Fly in the process, and outing some of the 'improvers' as needing to find an absolute ton to get HF off the bridle, let alone into a race.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
To be fair to Steve, he called the 3/1 after the withdrawls, which was hardly "shit value" for a horse with a stone-in-hand.
Suggestions that TS is a stayer are incorrect, in my view. His French Champion hurdle was run at a farcical pace, and they only started racing with 3f to go. His form at 2m is top-drawer any way I view it, and worth a damn sight more than his form from Auteuil, which - to coin a phrase - isn't worth a carrot in camparison.
Presume the odds reflected his lack of 2m form on a relatively flat track (bar his staying on second to HF) and also the hope value in Oscar Wells.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Since when was Punchestown considered a relatively flat track?
No matter - it's hardly an excuse for TS to have been outsider of three against OW and Pittoni.
No matter - it's hardly an excuse for TS to have been outsider of three against OW and Pittoni.
Pearsy
At the Start
Thanks OTB, I will keep my chin up!! Was expecting a big run having (presumably) come on for his seasonal debut and with TS setting such a good pace he had every chance to show if he's up to the top level over hurdles. Trainer quoted as saying hers are running a bit in and out so maybe there was a viable excuse. Top marks to the winner though, gotta be one of the most underrated horses in training.
Have you been to Navan and Naas? Comparatively speaking, Punchestown is as flat as a pancake (finish wise I'm talking about)
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
I've been to Punchestown and I've been to Naas. The latter has the stiffer finish, but no way is the former remotely "flat as" anything.
It is certainly not "flat" enough to be used as an excuse that a horse like Thousand Stars wouldn't act there.
Listen, he's not trained by Colm Murphy, so you're clearly out of your depth.....
Kidding.
It is certainly not "flat" enough to be used as an excuse that a horse like Thousand Stars wouldn't act there.
Listen, he's not trained by Colm Murphy, so you're clearly out of your depth.....
Kidding.
Last edited:
Kidding.
:lol:
In hindsight, maybe I was a little rash making the comparison to a pancake. Naas and Navan are seen as more galloping tracks than Punchestown. They have stiffer finishes but I guess Navan does have a free wheel run from the turn in to after the second last.
EC1
On a break
thats easy to say after the horse has won..many fancied Oscar
at the time i discussed the race there was more than 4 runners..when there were 4 runners left my interest in the race was zero
in a bigger fireld i doubt very much that TS would have led..its alll so easy after a race reduces in size and the result is known
i'll have to start remembering when everyone else calls a race incorrectly...then we can have an inquest about all of the losers this board supplies
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Take it easy, Tiger. I refer you to post 140 on this thread.
I don't find your price/runner argument relative, EC1. It doesn't really matter when you bet, as long as you're getting value. And it's not being a smart arse to say 3/1 was the wrong price - it's a statement of fact. Thousand Stars should never have been the outer of the three - regardless of any pace arguments you might want to put forward.
Another one for luck.
I don't find your price/runner argument relative, EC1. It doesn't really matter when you bet, as long as you're getting value. And it's not being a smart arse to say 3/1 was the wrong price - it's a statement of fact. Thousand Stars should never have been the outer of the three - regardless of any pace arguments you might want to put forward.
Another one for luck.
EC1
On a break
Take it easy, Tiger. I refer you to post 140 on this thread.
I don't find your price/runner argument relative, EC1. It doesn't really matter when you bet, as long as you're getting value. And it's not being a smart arse to say 3/1 was the wrong price - it's a statement of fact. Thousand Stars should never have been the outer of the three - regardless of any pace arguments you might want to put forward.
Another one for luck.
ante post prices always look good afterwards though...how good is 3/1 when horse gets pulled out on day of race?..that could have happened..it happens to horses everyday.
anyone that thought 3/1 was value...should have absolutely smashed into it after 2 furlongs at 5/4 when stretching the race out..thats where the pace angle lay... in the actual race..a punters needs to adapt to what is happening in front of them
actually watching a race and sussing out which horse will be suited on the day by how the race is being run will give better value than guessing 3 days beforehand about what the oppo is or even if the horse runs or not
just because a horse is the highest rated in a race..doesn't make them win..so quoting lbs clear isn't a gimme..Long Run was lbs clear..still lost
Last edited:
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
This argument suggests you can't have value in an ante-post market, EC1.
Whilst that might often be the case (less so on BF if you're prepared to roll the dice a bit, imo), it isn't always, and for me, Thousand Stars was clear value at 3/1 after Hurricane Fly came out.
To be perfectly honest, I hadn't even looked at the betting before Steve mentioned it; my reckoning being that TS would be practically odds-on. As it happens, the biggest price I got was 11/4, and I'm well satisfied with that.
I agree that the highest rated horses don't always win. But Thousand Stars almost always runs his race, and could be relied upon - to a large extent - to run up near the best of his form. The only credible opposition were going to have to improve measurably and, to me, seemed less likely to run their races.
I refered before the race to Thousand Stars being "vastly under-appreciated". That was reflected in his price, imo.
Whilst that might often be the case (less so on BF if you're prepared to roll the dice a bit, imo), it isn't always, and for me, Thousand Stars was clear value at 3/1 after Hurricane Fly came out.
To be perfectly honest, I hadn't even looked at the betting before Steve mentioned it; my reckoning being that TS would be practically odds-on. As it happens, the biggest price I got was 11/4, and I'm well satisfied with that.
I agree that the highest rated horses don't always win. But Thousand Stars almost always runs his race, and could be relied upon - to a large extent - to run up near the best of his form. The only credible opposition were going to have to improve measurably and, to me, seemed less likely to run their races.
I refered before the race to Thousand Stars being "vastly under-appreciated". That was reflected in his price, imo.
EC1
On a break
lets say that the original field had all run..and that TS had not made the running..as is likely when you look at past form..the race wouldn't have panned out so favourably if it had been a 3f sprint
when it was a 4 horse race..yes 3/1 looked good...did anyone know it would be a 4 runner race though?
yes..i congratulate you on your confidence beforehand..but good fortune also played some part in how the race shape changed
i'm not a big believer in AP bets tbh..no value in a non runner
EC1
On a break
hey EC, have you forgotten your own words.
that was a reply to you..not half the board
like i said..we can have an inquest after every race and point people out that got a race wrong..seems only fair i would have thought
EC1
On a break
i'm only messin Steve
someone will take the bait..where's Grassy gone?
anyway..back to the thread..whats next on the agenda race wise?