The Road To The 2012 Champion Hurdle

links781 said:
Steve and Hamm you're making a very good case for me to go in again on Spirit Son!! wooooosh;)
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I've even talked myself in to backing him again since this morning. The price is right and I'm pretty sure he'll be in the first two or three. He'll defend my downside and leave me free to back the actual winner (which may indeed be him) nearer the time. I think Hamm is even more struck with him than this though.
 
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SteveM said:
Horses of the calibre of Oscar Whisky and Peddler's Cross would be a threat to anything, but surely their targets are elsewhere.
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If you're taking on HF part of the rationale for that decision has got to be the possibility the horse may not make it to Cheltenham to defend his crown. If that happens it is surely possible one or both of these animals may be re-routed to the Champion. I've backed both today.
 
Euronymous said:
If you're taking on HF part of the rationale for that decision has got to be the possibility the horse may not make it to Cheltenham to defend his crown. If that happens it is surely possible one or both of these animals may be re-routed to the Champion. I've backed both today.
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...if they turn up you will have nailed it at extraordinary good value I agree. All things are possible I suppose, but it is too much of a stretch for me.
 
EC1 said:
What indicators are there he is still a real force?..if he is back to his best i would like to know
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The indicators are what I know he is capable of in relation to his price, which is huge compared to the favourite who has suspensory problems. Binocular was under a cloud last season but is reportedly free of that and in fine form now.

At this stage I'm thinking who could win rather than who will win. It seems to me that Spirit Son and Binocular are top of the list of those that could win and at double-digit prices (...but not for long).
 
EC1 said:
What indicators are there he is still a real force?..if he is back to his best i would like to know
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Henderson was very positive about Binocular in the RP stable tour video. The horse looked better than i've seen him as well.
 
Binocular's problem is temperament rather than talent - imho. :cool:

I really can't bring myself to look at BetFair's Champion Hurdle market. I'd say anything bigger than 7/2 about Hurricane Fly is probably bad news for me, and anything bigger than 7/1 is probably terminal.

Anyone less cowardly prepared to have a gander for me?
 
9/4 to lay Hurricane Fly Grassy so certainly not bad or terminal.

Let's not forget that Mullins has spent the past three years getting one horse to peak for one race in March, first time out too so I'm sure he'll be able to get the Hurricane there with a run or two before hand :)
 
Just read RP website, Martin, and it looks less like an injury and more like a fitness issue; Mullins saying he "just wasn't happy with him" and that "a few of mines are a bit backward". He's looking at getting him ready for the December (Istabraq?) Hurdle.

So hopefully not terminal.
 
Irish Stamp said:
9/4 to lay Hurricane Fly Grassy so certainly not bad or terminal.

Let's not forget that Mullins has spent the past three years getting one horse to peak for one race in March, first time out too so I'm sure he'll be able to get the Hurricane there with a run or two before hand :)
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Super point Martin. He might even yet be seen at Christmas
 
I've got Oscars Well on my mind for this if HF doesn't get there. He travelled like a machine at Cheltenham last year and would have won but for that mistake (I backed First Lieutenant)
His first run this year again he travelled like the best horse in the race and just blew up. I suspect he's going to bolt up Sunday and currently 5/2 for that for me is one of the best bets of the year so far.
If he does what I think he does Sunday 16/1 is gonna be long gone.
 
I'm with you on this Kauto. Oscars Well and Finians Rainbow are my two horses to religiously follow this year.
 
I hope Oscars Well is backed off the boards, and I can get a generous price about the vastly under-appreciated Thousand Stars.
 
Kauto said:
I've got Oscars Well on my mind for this if HF doesn't get there. He travelled like a machine at Cheltenham last year and would have won but for that mistake (I backed First Lieutenant)
His first run this year again he travelled like the best horse in the race and just blew up. I suspect he's going to bolt up Sunday and currently 5/2 for that for me is one of the best bets of the year so far.
If he does what I think he does Sunday 16/1 is gonna be long gone.
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+1
 
Grasshopper said:
I hope Oscars Well is backed off the boards, and I can get a generous price about the vastly under-appreciated Thousand Stars.
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There doesn't seem a lot wrong about Thousand Stars to me either... price for the Morgiana looks too big to me (3/1 Ladbrokes), almost to the point of there being detrimental news about the horse that I'm not aware of?
 
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SteveM said:
There doesn't seem a lot wrong about Thousand Stars to me either... price for the Morgiana looks too big to me (3/1 Ladbrokes), almost to the point of there being detrimental news about the horse that I'm not aware of?
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2 miles isn't the best trip for him now though is it?...not a good bet fto over the minimum trip imo..especially in a small field/slow pace like this will probably be..no pace in this race at all

can't have oscars well re trip/pace either

pittoni looks hard to beat but the price reflects that
 
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Oscars Well has plenty of pace. So does Thousand Stars, just not as much as Hurricane Fly and Peddlers Cross but there is no shame in that.
 
Oscars Well's best performance last year was over 18f and he showed plenty of pace in a race run in a crawl last time and basically just blew up on his first run back against fit horses. He has plenty of pace.

Thousand Stars is more of a stayer but he's certainly not slow. Maybe not quick enough to win a champion though.
 
Aragorn said:
Oscars Well's best performance last year was over 18f and he showed plenty of pace in a race run in a crawl last time and basically just blew up on his first run back against fit horses. He has plenty of pace.

Thousand Stars is more of a stayer but he's certainly not slow. Maybe not quick enough to win a champion though.
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in a slow run race though I can't see either being suited..yes maybe Oscars could win a strong run 2 mile..but even then its not ideal imo..a slow pace could see both left standing by a speedier type

I think Cheltenham can suit the 2.5 miler because its obviously stiff..many horses that want more than 2 run well or win the CH. Not many 2 miles anywhere elsewhere seem to totally suit the 2.5 miler

as soon as one of these or both lose at 2 miles it will be stated probably that..horse is better over further
 
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