The Road to the 2012 King George

Fellas, anyone got an idea this morning of what type of ground we're looking at.

I suppose Gd-St isn't a possibility is it?

If it is, I might have to go for a bit of value in the market, which i agree you're not getting on Long Run at present. I'm just guessing as I heard I report the ground was drying out?
 
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From the Kempton Park website:

For the William Hill Winter Festival on 26th & 27th December (updated 23rd December at 9am)

Soft, Heavy in Places
(GoingStick: Chase 4.6; Hurdle 4.4 on Saturday at 15:30)
Fresh ground on both courses
Thursday 20th; 23mm of rain.
Friday 21st; Dry
Saturday 22nd; 18mm of rain
Forecast:
Sunday; Band of rain pushing in during evening, potential accumulations of 5mm to 10mm.
Monday onwards; Remaining unsettled with showers.

Can't see anymore than that.
 
This morning:

For the William Hill Winter Festival on 26th & 27th December (updated 24th December at 8am)

Soft, Heavy in places
(GoingStick: Chase 4.6; Hurdle 4.4 on Saturday at 15:30)
Fresh ground on both courses
Thursday 20th; 23mm of rain.
Friday 21st; Dry.
Saturday 22nd; 18mm of rain.
Sunday 23rd; Dry
Monday 24th; 5mm of rain to 7.30am, clearing late morning.
Forecast:
Monday; Remaining unsettled with showers.
Tuesday; Risk of showers.
Wednesday; BRIGHT & SUNNY

Merry Christmas from all at Kempton Park!
 
It's getting worse. From Turftrax:

Course Kempton Park
Next Race Wednesday 26th December
Report Date Monday 24th December; 08:00
Going Soft (Heavy in places)
GoingStick C: 4.3, H: 4.0

Looks to be between Long Run and The Giant Bolster, imo.
 
Looks like being a dry night but heavy rain forecast for Wed afternoon.

Nothing worse that wet ground when it's drying out, can be like a gluepot. Some rain just before or during the race would help big time.

Long Run Junior and Captain Chris should handle it.

Riverside Theatre won in the soft at Ascot last season.

Cue Card I wouldn't be sure of he did beat For Non Stop and Walk On but he's a very speedy horse who surely is better on a sounder surface?

The Giant Bolster's 2nd in the Gold Cup was on good ground I can't see him enjoying this at all.

Kauto Stone will handle it but in his own time. He should have gone to Sedgefield where he'd be more at home.

Long Run really does deserve to be favourite little wonder Nicky Henderson is confident but no way should Captain Chris be 22 with Betfair unless he lost a wheel since his last run.
 
Tanlic said:
The Giant Bolster's 2nd in the Gold Cup was on good ground I can't see him enjoying this at all.
Click to expand...

I think you're right. Thinking back to his run at Newbury when beaten by Long Run last season, and his first outing this time, I think the judgement call at this time must be to think he's better on good ground. I think he'll be placed, but can't back him for the win on this ground.

I think the big question is how Grands Cruss goes on the ground. His sire Dom Alco sired Neptune Collonges and that Grand National winner seemed to go on any ground.

I've already got an interest in Long Run in the win market, but I sense Grands Crus could be the fly in the ointment.
 
Never gave Grand Crus a second thought, I suppose he could bounce back butthat might not bee good enough even if he does. I'd have massive doubts about him handling heavy ground and imagine that's why they are running Junior who's sure to handle it.
 
I was ready to give Captain Chris another chance but not on this ground. Wouldn't be surprised if he doesnt line up. He may handle it like you say Tanlic, but he won't stay on it. Love the horse and disappointed with the news of the ground.
 
I'm taking the owner at his word that he will run. I'm convinced he will stay and it was having to make up so much ground combined with 3 bad mistakes between the 6th last and 4 out that caused him to tire badly last year which gave the impression he never got the trip.

In the Ryanair he jumped every single fence to the right and at one fence RJ decided to let him pop it and he must have lost 6 lengths dropping back to last but one. Overall he must have lost 10 to 15 lengths but still managed to finish a staying on 4th.

If he can stay on up the hill like he did in the Ryanair at Cheltenham surely he'll get the trip here. a

At Ascot RJ kept him on the insideto prevent him jumping right but he may as well not have bothered as even when he could have at a couple he showed no signs of his old habit and actually went a little left at a couple. That maneuver by RJ meant he was racing on the worst ground while the others kept to the better ground in the center of the course. For a horse people are saying won't stay he certainly outstayed them all that day and never looked like stopping.

I've been wrong before and will be wrong again but at the prices on offer for both win (23) and place (4.6) on the machine he'll do for me, if the beggar turns up\;)
 
That's a fair enough analysis Tanlic. I hope you're right. I'm on already but I'm pretty pessimistic. It's not the field he'll have faced last year and he does look to be back to his best going on his last run. But on this ground over this trip, I don't think he'll be seen to his best and I think he'd need to have conditions in his favor to win a King George. We'll see what happens. As always, a lot of questions to be answered with a lot in the field. We'll be a hell of a lot wiser afterwards.
 
think its a strange tactic by pipe to run both grand crus and junior to me for junior to have a chance he will need to use stamina sapping tactics which wont suit grand crus perhaps theres a lack of stable confidence in grand crus
 
hezz said:
That's a fair enough analysis Tanlic. I hope you're right. I'm on already but I'm pretty pessimistic. It's not the field he'll have faced last year and he does look to be back to his best going on his last run. But on this ground over this trip, I don't think he'll be seen to his best and I think he'd need to have conditions in his favor to win a King George. We'll see what happens. As always, a lot of questions to be answered with a lot in the field. We'll be a hell of a lot wiser afterwards.
Click to expand...

It was a nice win last time out but he was allowed to set a moderate gallop and his two main opponents did not act on the ground. I think he has a big race in him but not today.

With Al Ferof out it's a watching race for me.
 
prince regent said:
think its a strange tactic by pipe to run both grand crus and junior to me for junior to have a chance he will need to use stamina sapping tactics which wont suit grand crus perhaps theres a lack of stable confidence in grand crus
Click to expand...

More likely, a racing club looking for 15 minutes of fame, and unlikely to make a difference to the overall pace, which is usually pretty generous in the KG anyway.
 
I've possibly done my stones in the Place market, but I have now settled on Cue Card. He travels and jumps, he's genuine and consistent, his form ties-in with a great many good horses, and if he stays, I think he is bound to go close.
 
Tanlic said:
I'm taking the owner at his word that he will run. I'm convinced he will stay and it was having to make up so much ground combined with 3 bad mistakes between the 6th last and 4 out that caused him to tire badly last year which gave the impression he never got the trip.

In the Ryanair he jumped every single fence to the right and at one fence RJ decided to let him pop it and he must have lost 6 lengths dropping back to last but one. Overall he must have lost 10 to 15 lengths but still managed to finish a staying on 4th.

If he can stay on up the hill like he did in the Ryanair at Cheltenham surely he'll get the trip here. a

At Ascot RJ kept him on the insideto prevent him jumping right but he may as well not have bothered as even when he could have at a couple he showed no signs of his old habit and actually went a little left at a couple. That maneuver by RJ meant he was racing on the worst ground while the others kept to the better ground in the center of the course. For a horse people are saying won't stay he certainly outstayed them all that day and never looked like stopping.

I've been wrong before and will be wrong again but at the prices on offer for both win (23) and place (4.6) on the machine he'll do for me, if the beggar turns up\;)
Click to expand...

Great call on the second mate, I hope you've won a fair few quid.:)
 
As you all know I’m not one to gloat... #youknownothingbunchofmothers
Gobbled up all the 3s I could with Hills this morning, adding to 4s ante-post.
:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:
 
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