The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

Desert Orchid said:
... and rumours that Min is the big one for this season, that they discovered he had a problem when he ran in the Supreme but kept it to themselves?

If they believe he's better than Altior, which many would have seriously fancied for the Champion Hurdle...
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Writing the above prompted me to check his price. Generally 25/1 but pennies available at three-figures at Betfair so I decided just to take that. I don't expect a return as I presume there can't be anything to the rumours but it was only pennies and you never know with that lot.
 
If Faugheen comes back, they won't see which way he went in the Champion Hurdle, but seeing as we're playing conspiracy-theories.....

Nichols Canyon is a multiple G1 winner at 2m, has beaten Faugheen already, came out of the Champion Hurdle a better horse than Annie Power at the weights, and has just hacked-up in the Morgiana. I'm as guilty as anyone of this, but he is generally over-looked as a bit of a 'meh' horse, but that's almost certainly unfair, and a lot to do with him being self-evidently inferior to Faugheen. But in Faugheen's absence, he has better Champion Hurdle credentials than almost any other horse in training, and there is a danger of looking past the most obvious alternative in favour of more exotic (dare I say, quixotic) options like Yorkhill, Min and others.

Nichols Canyon is generally a 20/1 chance right now (33/1 with Red32), but is hovering around the 50/1 mark on the Exchange. I think that is an absolute knock-out price for a horse with the right profile for the race, and is significantly better value than Yorkhill, who I reckon would need it bottomless to have any chance in a Champion Hurdle. Taking treble-figure-prices about Min is fair-enough, but I do think he needs to tank in his novice chase, for that to be an active-runner.
 
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Annie most certainly would. He may beat her but spank is la la land imo.

You know very well Annie laughed at NC in the Champion. Even off levels he would still be chasing her.
That said if you could get 50s then go for it. Wouldn't be fancying him myself.
 
Frankel said:
Annie most certainly would. He may beat her but spank is la la land imo.

You know very well Annie laughed at NC in the Champion. Even off levels he would still be chasing her.
That said if you could get 50s then go for it. Wouldn't be fancying him myself.
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I'm already on, Frankel.

The bets obviously assume that neither AP nor Faugheen run. Should that be the case, there are no better alternatives, imo, unless they re-route Altior and/or Min. I certainly can't see it happening with the former, because he will have had at least two novices chases under his belt, before there is any indication from Mullins about what is happening with his CH horses. As I say, Min would enter calculations if he blew-out in his novice chase. I can't have Yorkhill at all, in a quick-ground Champion Hurdle - he doesn't have the toe.
 
The exchange price almost doesn't matter.

The Champion Hurdle market is a complete basket-case anyway. I mean.......Apples Jade is a shorter price than Nichols Canyon in places, which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
 
Grasshopper said:
I'm already on, Frankel.

The bets obviously assume that neither AP nor Faugheen run. Should that be the case, there are no better alternatives, imo, unless they re-route Altior and/or Min. I certainly can't see it happening with the former, because he will have had at least two novices chases under his belt, before there is any indication from Mullins about what is happening with his CH horses. As I say, Min would enter calculations if he blew-out in his novice chase. I can't have Yorkhill at all, in a quick-ground Champion Hurdle - he doesn't have the toe.
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Fair doos.

I think Yorkhill has a bit more boot than some think. Ultimately a smash up with Altior would be something to see. Though with Min around he may be JLT bound if sent chasing.
 
Shes making this clicking noise when she walks which was there before but worse now I understand. Potentially it could cause her to miss the season in which case I reckon they'd retire her. Ricci's wife is obsessed with her. Faugheen back to champion and NC world I reckon if it plays out like that.


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Grasshopper said:
If Faugheen comes back, they won't see which way he went in the Champion Hurdle, but seeing as we're playing conspiracy-theories.....

Nichols Canyon is a multiple G1 winner at 2m, has beaten Faugheen already, came out of the Champion Hurdle a better horse than Annie Power at the weights, and has just hacked-up in the Morgiana. I'm as guilty as anyone of this, but he is generally over-looked as a bit of a 'meh' horse, but that's almost certainly unfair, and a lot to do with him being self-evidently inferior to Faugheen. But in Faugheen's absence, he has better Champion Hurdle credentials than almost any other horse in training, and there is a danger of looking past the most obvious alternative in favour of more exotic (dare I say, quixotic) options like Yorkhill, Min and others.

Nichols Canyon is generally a 20/1 chance right now (33/1 with Red32), but is hovering around the 50/1 mark on the Exchange. I think that is an absolute knock-out price for a horse with the right profile for the race, and is significantly better value than Yorkhill, who I reckon would need it bottomless to have any chance in a Champion Hurdle. Taking treble-figure-prices about Min is fair-enough, but I do think he needs to tank in his novice chase, for that to be an active-runner.
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I had a phone call last night from someone regarding this very angle. The chap doesn't have any online accounts so has to walk from shop to shop in town to get his bets on but he can be instinctively smart in these matters.
 
Heard a few shrewd judges in the last few days suggest Yanworth should be aimed at the Champion hurdle rather than stepped up in trip. Admittedly I might be filtering what I want to hear but haven't got a penny committed. Just want to see a good horse fulfil his potential.
 
TheBear said:
Heard a few shrewd judges in the last few days suggest Yanworth should be aimed at the Champion hurdle rather than stepped up in trip. Admittedly I might be filtering what I want to hear but haven't got a penny committed. Just want to see a good horse fulfil his potential.
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The judges?
 
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