The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

Just about as boring and insignificant a trial as predicted.

The New One beat what was in front of him
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A race in which a game 143 horse was given the run of the race and allowed to get close to him and a horse who clearly has an attitude problem with no will to win.

Trying to turn it into anything other than what it was is BS.
 
The New One is an extremely smart, consistent horse which certainly was not at its best today. He was never at ease in any stage of today's race, especially up the home straight, but was still able to tough it out. He's a very profitable horse to follow in these kinds of races.

On the other hand his record in Grade 1 races suggests he's not up to winning a Champion Hurdle.
 
His record in Grade 1 races suggests he isn't up to winning any G1 race at 2m, let alone a Champion Hurdle.

Aughex, you're young and have time to learn. I just hope you don't run out of money before the penny drops, and you can more readily identify the champions from the frauds. ;)
 
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How any racing fan can call The New One a "fraud" is beyond me. :)

Wash your mouth out. :)
 
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No but I want to thank @Grass for the wishes but with regards to TNO thats not how it works because even if he's only a 2 time G1 winner, I remind him the `14 CH in which TNO was ahead of the multiple G1 Hurricane Fly and would've most likely won it without the interference at a crucial stage. He's a G1 festival winner and outside the festival he was only ever beaten twice by more than a length in his entire career up to now of 5 seasons and that was by Faugheen and Yanworth. There have been CH winners that couldn't hold their claims as champions even for that season let alone for 5. Depends on what you judge horses by, their careers or their absolute peak abilities.
 
Aughex said:
No but I want to thank @Grass for the wishes but with regards to TNO thats not how it works because even if he's only a 2 time G1 winner, I remind him the `14 CH in which TNO was ahead of the multiple G1 Hurricane Fly and would've most likely won it without the interference at a crucial stage. He's a G1 festival winner and outside the festival he was only ever beaten twice by more than a length in his entire career up to now of 5 seasons and that was by Faugheen and Yanworth. There have been CH winners that couldn't hold their claims as champions even for that season let alone for 5. Depends on what you judge horses by, their careers or their absolute peak abilities.
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You have a point when you talk about career achievement versus peak rating, but it's a pity you didn't take the same approach when talking about Hurricane Fly the other day.
 
Problem with the 2 concepts is that some confuse and mix them. I'd want to see a quote of mine reg. HF that talks about his career in any other terms than laudatory.
 
Fraud is certainly not a word I would use with regard to TNO.

He strikes me as the kind of horse 99% of owners and trainers would be happy with.

High class, honest, consistent, genuine. You can't ask for much more.

Just let's not kid ourselves on he's a prospective CH winner unless the scenario arises where the real contenders have to miss the race for some reason or other.
 
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Fraud was maybe a bit harsh, but that was said in the context of him being passed-off by Aughex, as one of the best 2-mile hurdlers in the last decade......when it should be abundantly clear from his record, that he is not.

As you say, DO......he is high-class rather than top-class at the trip.
 
Personally would reserve the word fraud for ungenuine types which TNO is not given the way he battled back yesterday. Short of top class definitely though


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Something I meant to say earlier about the Christmas Hurdle last month:

When TNO beat MTOY in the International they were rated 158 and 155 respectively and there were 3.5 lengths between them at the line. Would that not be grounds for leaving the figures as they were? He put TNO up 9lbs for that but kept MTOY on 155. I find that difficult to fathom (despite my oft-voiced support for the officials).

So then at Kempton there are 4.5 lengths between them and he brings TNO back down 4lbs.

From the start of season 14-15 to the start of this season, TNO posted RPRs of 154, 164, 161, 154, 161, 151, 158, 160 and 161, that peak 164 coming at Haydock (where he "doesn't act" according to some) when he beat the 150-rated Zamdy Man just less than three lengths.

Now all of a sudden this season we're expected to believe he's a 167 horse again?

MTOY was a 167 horse at his peak on my ratings but is looking increasingly like one of those horses who rise sharply to a peak but fail to stay there. Cole Harden is a similar type. It may be, as Grasshopper probably hopes, that he's being plotted up for a handicap coup, presumably in the realisation he isn't a champion.

The fact is that we're in a lull for real championship pretenders. The proper ones are in Ireland in Faugheen and Annie Power and now there are doubts about them. Let's hope at least one of them comes back in top form but in the meantime we need to look to the new kids on the block to try and shake them up.

I'm worried that Sceau Royal is only five given that age group's poor record in the race but I'll be sorely disappointed if he can't laugh at The New One. Brain Power is the right age and was as easy a winner of his handicap race as was MTOY of the Schweppes. Both went up from 149 to 162 but MTOY ran in the Supreme next time and couldn't beat Champagne Fever. It was another season before he was good enough to go close in the big one. I worry that BP might have to wait a year too.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Brain Power is the right age and was as easy a winner of his handicap race as was MTOY of the Schweppes. Both went up from 149 to 162 but MTOY ran in the Supreme next time and couldn't beat Champagne Fever. It was another season before he was good enough to go close in the big one. I worry that BP might have to wait a year too.
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my tent was a novice , brain power is a second season hurdler.

the form of the Ascot race looks the one, still 12/1 nrnb
 
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@DO, not according to some, but to his form. He beat Zamdy by 17l nto in the Bula.

and if you had MTOY at 167 at his peak then what did you had TNO back then? He came half length in the Christmas Hurdle `13(when making that mistake at the last). NTO he came 2 lengths off him in the CH when badly impeded during a vital part of the race. Even without taking those mistakes into account(even though you'd have to) then TNO still has to come around 167 on your rating scales(not talking about OR or RPR here).
 
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The difference between My Tent Or Yours is he as DO said won the Schweppes Brain Power won a much lesser event

MTOY racing off 149 absolutely hacked up by 5 lengths from Cotton Mill who many thought would have won the Neptune the year before but for UR. Back in 3rd was David Pipe's Swing Bowler who was going for his 6th consecutive win. 2 very tough opponents he made complete mincemeat of.

Brain Power beat his stable companion Consul De Thaix who to date had achieved absolutely nothing,,,,,,,,,,, back in 3rd a 25/1 shot who had run a good race back in October when 3rd in a decent h'cap finishing just ahead of Modus but was fit from the flat and Modus was having his first outing. Modus also ran in the race at Ascot but was much worse off at the weights. You could go back 6 lengths to Golden Spear if you are desperate to try and prove a point but digging through Also Rans that's when things start getting silly

The point is My Tent Or Yours won a far better race every bit as easily or easier than Brain Power but both horses ended up on 162. Not because of weight concession or anything like that but because both were Group 3 races.....stuff the fact one was possibly a dog race that cuts no ice with the handicapper.

Nicky Henderson then ran MTOY in the Supreme not the Champion Hurdle and he ran a cracker. Unfortunately IMO his make up/frame doesn't allow him to stretch out fully IMO it gives the impression he's not putting it all in at times but I reckon it's physical not a mental problem and he was out gunned by Champagne Fever one of the toughest horses you are every likely to come across.

You make the point he couldn't beat CF DO not many would have that day.

The OH decision to put Brain Power up to 162 fair or not left Nicky Henderson thinking wtf do I do now. Left with nowhere else to go but up against the best.

Does anyone think he's a better horse than MTOY was? Does Nicky Henderson think he is? Does anyone at Seven Barrows think he is? I can see 2 big NO's at least there.

That may become irrelevant if he does win the Champion Hurdle but it's a huge ask

As far as the Ascot Handicap goes how would Faugheen Annie Power Yanworth Petite Muchair Jezki or MY Tent Or Yours do giving a stone to Consul De Thaix? He wouldn't blow wind up any of their backsides and that's why he's 12/1 and would be 20/1 if trained north of Manchester.

Very nice horse BrainPower but there's not the same confidence behind him you usually get from the yard.....Sandown could change that and I hope it does.

I must admit DO you got some sense of humour if you can see Sceau Royal a winner of sweet f***all laughing at the ultra consistent TNO winner of 18 races and almost a million quid :blink: beware of men in white coats :lol:
 
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Tanlic said:
Nicky Henderson then ran MTOY in the Supreme not the Champion Hurdle and he ran a cracker. Unfortunately IMO his make up/frame doesn't allow him to stretch out fully IMO it gives the impression he's not putting it all in at times but I reckon it's physical not a mental problem and he was out gunned by Champagne Fever one of the toughest horses you are every likely to come across.:
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I've known Frenchmen with more fight.
 
TheBear said:
I've known Frenchmen with more fight.
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He had plenty of fight in the 2013 Christmas Hurdle . His problem is that when a youngster he pulled too hard and now although he is much more tractable he is not quite as good as he was .
 
That is one 1 from 5 tight finishes he was involved in and he lost 4. May well have been 5 if TNO hadn't walked through the last. in that one either.

Bit of news on L'Ami Serge who looked like he was going to go very close before dropping out. He got a bit of a knock from Clyne which tore his right fore shoe off and later they found blood in his trachea/windpipe......sorta explains why he stopped like shot.
 
TheBear said:
I've known Frenchmen with more fight.
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Dominic Valera would be one :0) I put it to Nicky Henderson for his opinion be interesting to hear what he has to say if anything.
I thought he looked like a rocking horse in the Supreme and said so at the time
 
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Tha handicap won by Brain Power may not have the same history/prestige as the Betfair Hurdle, but it is is more-or-less on a par with it in every other respect,

It's worth only around £3K less to winner, and the top-weight was only 3lbs lower than the Betfair top-weight. It's therefore incorrect/misleading to dismiss it as a "much lesser race".

In real terms, it's the pre-Xmas equivalent of the Betfair Hurdle, and winners should be afforded a similar level of respect.

MTOY is gutless. Why this is even a point of discussion is beyond me.
 
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That is utter garbage the Ascot race is a dog race in comparison to the Betfair MTOY won. Rating it the same is why we have so many horses who win nothing after getting lumped up for winning it.

Of those who have won it 3 got to the Champion Hurdle all 3 were tailed off and the only horse who won a race at the Festival is Cause of Causes and it wasn't even a hurdle race.

A couple ran in the Supreme and failed to show others ended up in the County but did nothing

That is why it is not on a par with the Betfair/Schweppes which has produced some real top horses that won or ran with great credit at the festival like Make a Stand GMOOH MTOY Large Action and many more

You can respect it all you wan't but I wouldn't back anything that runs in the race to win a donkey race at Cheltenham. It is an early handicap run before the better horses appear or are ready to run simple as.

Brain Power is possibly the best horse ever to win the race time will tell but he won't carry 10p of my cash in the Champion Hurdle unless he does something really special between now and then that changes my mind.
 
Tanlic said:
That is utter garbage the Ascot race is a dog race in comparison to the Betfair MTOY won.
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The Schweppes is traditionally regarded as the hottest handicap hurdle of the UK season.

That is changing. Life evolves and so does racing.

Who would have thought ten years ago that the Greatwood would become as important as it is? Who'd have thought 30 years ago that the Mandarin would be as unimportant as it has become.

Or that the Grand National would one day be worth a million and more than the Gold Cup?

The Ascot race won by BP was worth £50k more this year than last year. It is right up there with the Schweppes in terms of value. Dogs simply don't turn up for that kind of money. If they maintain its value it might well become more important as the recognised top handicap hurdle of the season since Ascot is almost guaranteed to provide decent going whereas Newbury is often heavy and occasionally abandoned. A hard race at Newbury can kill off any Cheltenham aspirations although I accept that it's usually a 'target for the season' race for 90% of the runners.

All the form in behind Brain Power marks it out as a very hot race. On my figures - and I accept time might well prove me wrong 'cos that's what calculating your own figures is all about and you hope to learn from your mistakes - BP has run 1lb further ahead of its mark than Wicklow Brave did in the 2015 County, a measure I didn't think I would see beat over hurdles. Wicklow Brave, remember won that race by a going-away 8 lengths from five other Irish plots and the closes the UK runners could get was the useful tools Baltimore Rock and Cheltenian, beaten over 14 lengths.

Henderson had the 1-2 at Ascot with two unexposed types and they were clear of three Martin plots and the subsequent wide-margin Lanzarote winner. In among them was the rejuvenated Fergall off 136 and he hadn't been beaten far in the most valuable handicap in Europe, the Galway Hurdle, off 143 in his day.

Rubbish that form all you want, Tanlic. It's all about opinions, after all.

I'm hoping that latching on early to the value of certain form will give me an edge. It already has in this case with Brain Power down from 25/1 to 12/1. I can trade out if I choose or if I re-examine the form and find I'm downgrading the form. I've looked at the race several times since it was run and so far can see no reason to doubt my high figures, other than the old cliche that if it looks too good to be true it probably is.

However, Modus, as I said, has already hacked up in the Lanzarote and Golden Spear, beaten over 11 lengths at Ascot, was beaten only a length in one of Ireland's most hotly contested handicaps yesterday. It's a race that will just keep giving.
 
Tanlic said:
That is utter garbage the Ascot race is a dog race in comparison to the Betfair MTOY won. Rating it the same is why we have so many horses who win nothing after getting lumped up for winning it.

Of those who have won it 3 got to the Champion Hurdle all 3 were tailed off and the only horse who won a race at the Festival is Cause of Causes and it wasn't even a hurdle race.

A couple ran in the Supreme and failed to show others ended up in the County but did nothing

That is why it is not on a par with the Betfair/Schweppes which has produced some real top horses that won or ran with great credit at the festival like Make a Stand GMOOH MTOY Large Action and many more

You can respect it all you wan't but I wouldn't back anything that runs in the race to win a donkey race at Cheltenham. It is an early handicap run before the better horses appear or are ready to run simple as.

Brain Power is possibly the best horse ever to win the race time will tell but he won't carry 10p of my cash in the Champion Hurdle unless he does something really special between now and then that changes my mind.
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Tanlic - please show me where I went wrong on actual facts, rather than misinterpreting the rumbling of yer belly! :lol:
 
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