The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

Desert Orchid said:
The Schweppes is traditionally regarded as the hottest handicap hurdle of the UK season.

That is changing. Life evolves and so does racing.

Who would have thought ten years ago that the Greatwood would become as important as it is? Who'd have thought 30 years ago that the Mandarin would be as unimportant as it has become.

Or that the Grand National would one day be worth a million and more than the Gold Cup?

The Ascot race won by BP was worth £50k more this year than last year. It is right up there with the Schweppes in terms of value. Dogs simply don't turn up for that kind of money. If they maintain its value it might well become more important as the recognised top handicap hurdle of the season since Ascot is almost guaranteed to provide decent going whereas Newbury is often heavy and occasionally abandoned. A hard race at Newbury can kill off any Cheltenham aspirations although I accept that it's usually a 'target for the season' race for 90% of the runners.

All the form in behind Brain Power marks it out as a very hot race. On my figures - and I accept time might well prove me wrong 'cos that's what calculating your own figures is all about and you hope to learn from your mistakes - BP has run 1lb further ahead of its mark than Wicklow Brave did in the 2015 County, a measure I didn't think I would see beat over hurdles. Wicklow Brave, remember won that race by a going-away 8 lengths from five other Irish plots and the closes the UK runners could get was the useful tools Baltimore Rock and Cheltenian, beaten over 14 lengths.

Henderson had the 1-2 at Ascot with two unexposed types and they were clear of three Martin plots and the subsequent wide-margin Lanzarote winner. In among them was the rejuvenated Fergall off 136 and he hadn't been beaten far in the most valuable handicap in Europe, the Galway Hurdle, off 143 in his day.

Rubbish that form all you want, Tanlic. It's all about opinions, after all.

I'm hoping that latching on early to the value of certain form will give me an edge. It already has in this case with Brain Power down from 25/1 to 12/1. I can trade out if I choose or if I re-examine the form and find I'm downgrading the form. I've looked at the race several times since it was run and so far can see no reason to doubt my high figures, other than the old cliche that if it looks too good to be true it probably is.

However, Modus, as I said, has already hacked up in the Lanzarote and Golden Spear, beaten over 11 lengths at Ascot, was beaten only a length in one of Ireland's most hotly contested handicaps yesterday. It's a race that will just keep giving.
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Exactly what it is you don't understand about the phrase in comparison?

This constant use of also rans like Modus who obviously wasn't anywhere near fit on the day to say it was a good race is utter nonsense.

But you brought Modus into it so let's have a closer look.........Modus and Chesterfield both run behind Brain Power ..Modus improved 13 1/4 lengths on that run with Cheseterfield so had he been fit on the day he would have beaten Brain Power by a neck which is no more ridiculous than you citing also rans to try and prove a point

Golden Spear hotly contested? are you serious man? He ran off 124 into 3rd in a 0-150 B Handicap he would not have even got a run in almost any Betfair Hurdle off that mark and certainly would not have in MTOY or Zarkandar's year without carrying 12 to 19lbs overweight.


Just because trainers choose to give their horses a run in an early handicap does not mean its a great race.

Brain Power wasn't even the stable fancy that day and he was friendless in the market at 12/1 with Consul De Thaix 6/1 and handicap king Tony Martin's Golden Spear an easy to back 4/1 fav despite his low mark.

Everything point to it being a very flattering race to the winner but as you say it's all about opinions and Nicky Henderson reckons it was a decent race but it is also his opinion is that he's only a 12/1 shot because Faugheen and Annie Power have not run yet......I prefer to think the bookies are taking the p1ss and will quite happily make Faugheen odds on if he wins his race and leave everything else at the same price :)

Either Yanworth or Brain Power is going to be a much bigger price after they clash at Sandown if no one's bottle goes
 
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Grasshopper said:
Tanlic - please show me where I went wrong on actual facts, rather than misinterpreting the rumbling of yer belly! :lol:
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"and winners should be afforded a similar level of respect"......I gave you comparison that surely make that statement look downright silly....no winner of the Ladbroke has done anything worth talking about at the Festival bar Cause of Causes who won a h'cap chase 100 years later.........Brain Power might but everything that has won it and run at the festival finished nowhere.......I'm afraid I have more respect for winners than losers
 
The Ladbroke wasn't worth as much back then, and wouldn't have drawn the same class of horse, is the point.

You are trying to make a historical comparison - and write the Ascot race off as inferior - when a real comparison isn't available.
 
Tanlic said:
Golden Spear hotly contested? are you serious man? He ran off 124 into 3rd in a 0-150 B Handicap he would not have even got a run in almost any Betfair Hurdle off that mark and certainly would not have in MTOY or Zarkandar's year without carrying 12 to 19lbs overweight.
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we live in a different planet, reading the form

golden spear run a huge race in the hottest handicap of the season in ireland

OR 124 in Ireland is the equivalent of 131/132 in GB


the ladbrokes is the key , i think Brain Power will win the champion hurdle repeating Ascot form, if he improves he will do it in style.
 
Golden Spear ran off 125 (and not 'off' in my opinion) at Ascot and 124 on Sunday. Running any extended form through a Martin horse is a shortcut to the poorhouse.

12/1 Brain Power is probably a fair price (just as 25/1 is a very good price) but it is all based on one race. The next race should tell us more but not cliff material until then.
 
Tanlic said:
Exactly what it is you don't understand about the phrase in comparison?

This constant use of also rans like Modus who obviously wasn't anywhere near fit on the day to say it was a good race is utter nonsense.

But you brought Modus into it so let's have a closer look.........Modus and Chesterfield both run behind Brain Power ..Modus improved 13 1/4 lengths on that run with Cheseterfield so had he been fit on the day he would have beaten Brain Power by a neck which is no more ridiculous than you citing also rans to try and prove a point

Golden Spear hotly contested? are you serious man? He ran off 124 into 3rd in a 0-150 B Handicap he would not have even got a run in almost any Betfair Hurdle off that mark and certainly would not have in MTOY or Zarkandar's year without carrying 12 to 19lbs overweight.


Just because trainers choose to give their horses a run in an early handicap does not mean its a great race.

Brain Power wasn't even the stable fancy that day and he was friendless in the market at 12/1 with Consul De Thaix 6/1 and handicap king Tony Martin's Golden Spear an easy to back 4/1 fav despite his low mark.

Everything point to it being a very flattering race to the winner but as you say it's all about opinions and Nicky Henderson reckons it was a decent race but it is also his opinion is that he's only a 12/1 shot because Faugheen and Annie Power have not run yet......I prefer to think the bookies are taking the p1ss and will quite happily make Faugheen odds on if he wins his race and leave everything else at the same price :)

Either Yanworth or Brain Power is going to be a much bigger price after they clash at Sandown if no one's bottle goes
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First of all, it's great from the point of view of meaningful debate that you're taking the time to check through the form to back up your opinions and I'll concede your points are perfectly well made.

We have two people looking at the same evidence and coming up with different conclusions.

As for Modus and Chesterfield, I wouldn't rush to use their collateral form as a reliable guide and I deliberately left Chesterfield out of the argument. At Ascot I was in the camp that said Modus wasn't there to win. If I gave the impression that I felt he ran the same race at Ascot as at Kempton then it wasn't my intention. My intention was to highlight the class of horse that turned up at Ascot.

Chesterfield was badly ridden at Ascot (I backed him in that race) and ran with the choke out at Kempton but someone clearly thought he had a shout as he was backed in from 33/1 to about 7/1. He might not have stayed anyway but he never gave himself a chance on the day. It wasn't my money that caused the dramatic betting move.

Golden Spear indeed would not have got near Zarkandar's Schweppes because of his rating but that was because Brampour ran so just anything that was rated to get in ran. Perhaps they feared the same would happen this season, that a 160+ horse would stand its ground so they had to get him up the weights pronto and he was backed from 9/1 into 9/4. He didn't get the most astute tactical ride either - nor did he yesterday but the big field on the tight Leopardstown track means luck in running is crucial - and is better than the bare form but he was still an awful long way behind BP. In any event, they didn't enter him for the Schweppes this season, presumably accepting that he wasn't going to make the cut anyway.

You appear to have links with the Henderson stable so you have a huge advantage over me. I can't just phone up someone at the yard and ask for the lowdown. All I have is my wits. They serve me well more often than not and I am prepared to back them up with cash. If I lose so be it but I don't like losing and don't set out to do so, therefore my figures are not just made up. The handicapper appears to agree largely with my evaluation of the Ascot race too. That tells me I'm not far off being right.

But if you're telling me that Henderson doesn't fancy BP for the Champion Hurdle then I might well be donald-ducked.
 
I wouldn't worry DO he didn't fancy Punjabi either but thought MTOY was a good thing and he let Binocular go off at 9/1. Mind you to be fair you would never know what form he was in at home because he never showed much.

He has admitted publicly he is at a loss and simply doesn't know if he is up to it or not but has no choice but try.


Another horse was mentioned to me when we were discussing Brain Power.... you may remember a chaser called "Roberto Goldback" apparently Nicky went nuts with the handicapper stating they never get it right or make allowances that they should.

The OH raised him something like 12 lbs for winning an average race at Ascot and Nicky said well that's him ****** for the rest of his days and he was bang on and he never won again.

Obviously Nicky would love it if the rise was 1lb at a time but I think he is bang on in his thinking........In 2 weeks Brain Power may have had his career all but ruined having gone up a massive 20lbs putting him into the top highest rated hurdlers in the country which really is unfair if you consider how many races the New One has won. I would like to see a ceiling of about 6lbs put on these rises.

Even if he'd gone up to 155 at least he could run elsewhere if Nicky thought he wasn't CH class

The problem is if the OH is totally off the mark and he is not up to Champion Hurdle class how long before he can get back to a winning mark......some horses running off imposible marks get sickened and never win again
 
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JamesRB said:
WPM today: "I think Yorkhill could be a Champion Hurdler in time. Definitely."

:ninja:
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:lol:

How cute both Ruby and Willie trying to compensate for the yesterday's horrible run - for a favourite at the festival. Not only that he was cut in price :lol: and other were raised :lol: These are the good times :cool:
 
Aughex said:
:lol:

How cute both Ruby and Willie trying to compensate for the yesterday's horrible run - for a favourite at the festival. Not only that he was cut in price :lol: and other were raised :lol: These are the good times :cool:
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Horrible run? Ruby never asked him a thing and only had to nudge him out to win with the minimum of fuss as reported nationwide by the media.

He is still jumping to the left and Ruby didn't exactly try his heart to correct him but the JLT looks a 3 horse race if Buveur Dair is allowed to take his chance along with Whisper who definitely goes there.

he way Ruby Walsh talks about him and Davy Russell who will ride Whisper he's some pony and a lot of people's banker of the meeting.

Very hard to oppose IMO
 
Had nothing to beat, lost ground at his fences, too short for the JLT. Happy to oppose.

Don't listen to jockeys
 
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granger said:
Johnny Ward
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I saw him on Twitter asking for info by email...........who told him? A Russian hacker working for Putin or was it the CIA?:lol:

He also sates that WPM said Faugheen will struggle to tun to his mark on Sunday and That Annie Power is in great form.

Seems odd these stories haven't appeared on the HRI RP or SL websites.

One story that did give hope that Annie Power is in good nick was Gordon Elliot saying he intends to take her on with Apple Jade at Punchestown which may imply he knows she's going to run there

Other than that paper will continue to accept ink until they both turn up or don't
 
Grey said:
It would be almost impossible for him to run to his mark given the circumstances.

Tanlic quote;
I have no hesitation laying him or backing Petite Mouchoir whichever is potentially the most rewarding
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The chances of a horse's suspensory ligament injury returning is very high.
Willie knows this, he also believes in the bounce factor. I believe Faugeen will be fit enough to win the Irish Champion hdl, he doesn't need to be fully tuned to do so; a run 7lb short of his mark puts him 7lb ahead of Petite Mouchoir's.
If the injury is going to return, then he'll take this as compensation. So don't be fooled by his comments.
 
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Faugheen won't run Sunday IMO.

I doubt we will see him on the racecourse again. The more I hear from WM and watch his body language the more I feel there is more going on than we are hearing.

I'll be delighted to be proven wrong.
 
Maxbet said:
The chances of a horse's suspensory ligament injury returning is very high.
Willie knows this, he also believes in the bounce factor. I believe Faugeen will be fit enough to win the Irish Champion hdl, he doesn't need to be fully tuned to do so; a run 7lb short of his mark puts him 7lb ahead of Petite Mouchoir's.
If the injury is going to return, then he'll take this as compensation. So don't be fooled by his comments.
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I agree Faugheen could still win on Sunday even though he won't be at his best, and that Willy wouldn't run him otherwise.
 
Maxbet said:
The chances of a horse's suspensory ligament injury returning is very high.
Willie knows this, he also believes in the bounce factor. I believe Faugeen will be fit enough to win the Irish Champion hdl, he doesn't need to be fully tuned to do so; a run 7lb short of his mark puts him 7lb ahead of Petite Mouchoir's.
If the injury is going to return, then he'll take this as compensation. So don't be fooled by his comments.
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His injury and time off aside I have never been that convinced that he's the unbeatable machine most people seem to think he is.

His win over Arctic Fire and Hurricane Fly hardly ended up as a classic with The Fly retiring soon after and Arctic Fire just getting the better of Monksland


His win in the Xmas Hurdle when he beat TNO was good to the eye but in the cold light of day TNO only finished 3/4 in front of Hargam at levels.

Then of course he beat an injured Arctic Fire before he himself picked up an injury.

He was without doubt the best around but with some fresh blood around plus Annie Power winning no worse a Champion Hurdle than he did getting 7lbs I will oppose him

I really like Petite Mouchoir no matter what people think about NC running below his best and tbh I fear Annie more than I do Faugheen
 
Well no machine is unbeatable if the driver decides to leave the tactics to someone else and the mechanic decides to do a test drive just before the race without leaving enough petrol for the actual race.

Arctic Fire got injured a week after Faugheen last year. He was suffering from lung infection at the end of December when tried over 3 miles, if thats what you meant. When they met in the ICH he was 15 lengths ahead of NC who was a two times G1 that season already. Then Faugheen was a further 15 lengths in front of him when Ruby stopped driving him in the last 100 yards, thats value for 10+ lengths. I don't think you'd seen a better hurdling performance in the last 30-40 years. Istabraq was rated 180+ value for extra, he didn't actually ran in any race up to that mark. Faugheen instead is always rated in the most scrupulous way by all handicappers, they take the literal 15 lengths as is, timeform only placed a + it.

HF and Jezki, the 2 previous champions were routed to staying trips exactly after Faugheen destroyed them in the CH. HF was tested few more times over the longer trip, before given an honorable retirement. He won 3 G1s over 2 miles that season and in that CH he came home again in front of Jezki like he did in his previous 3 runs. Jezki, reminding you, was the defending CH horse, he lost his chances in the `15 CH(of which ground conditions were much more suitable than what he's been racing off at home) when McCoy decided to go for home in the backstraight, that forced Faugheen, himself and TNO to use alot of their energy too early and leaving those from behind a better chance in the latter stages.

As for AP, after they meet in the CH and Faugheen leaves her behind, I have absolutely no doubt that you'll later dismiss her as a champion because she is a mare and then we're back to your current opinion which won't change.

And people don't think NC ran below his best, it says so in the book. Look up Jers Girl and Ivanovich. That tells you all about NC performance when they met in the subsequent race. Whether he would've beaten Petit who knows but if you're his backer I'd be more worried about NC getting back form before getting concerned about AP or F.
 
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