The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

Kauto Abu said:
The Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on good ground was ran at 12 seconds above course average and 5-6 seconds faster than previous Christmas Hurdles. It was a fast run race to say the least ensured by MTOY & TNO battling for the lead throughout. Yanworth was the first off the bridle before turning in so not sure a faster pace will suit!! His ability to quicken off a fast pace will be his undoing in the champion against speed horses. Ch'Tibello certainly finished in the same county as Yanworth off a fast pace at Kempton. Actually he finished in the same parish!! He confirmed that form yesterday.

Either Ch'tibello is now running up to a mark of around 165 now or the 167 for Yanworth on current form is flattering him. Somehow I don't think it's the former.
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Yes. I have Yanworth on a time rating of 162 for Kempton but have an annotation questioning it on account of Ch'tibello, who got the exact same tactical ride yesterday, ie hunt round and pick up the pieces. It will be interesting to see if the handicapper hikes him as he only put him up 4lbs for Kempton to 149 yet put Yanworth up to 164 and he was only 7lbs better. He's maybe taking the view, as I sometimes do, that we have races within races and that the strict collateral form isn't to be taken literally. However, the faster the time the less likely I am to take this view and am more likely to go with the literal form.

(It happened yesterday again when Bigbadjohn was bottom-rated on ORs for the Reynoldstown because the handicapper left him alone after his good second to Thistlecrack but the time had been fast - please note I am not saying I backed BBJ yesterday, just highlighting the phenomenon.)

I've still to pore over the form but I reckon it will work out very close to Kempton. MR was uncomfortably close at the last for the form to be top class. Can anyone remotely imagine his being with them at the last in the Champion Hurdle?

As I said before, unless King comes out and says Sceau Royal wasn't fit, I have problems with his CH prospects now but at least if he's taken out I'll get most of my money back.

It's looking more and more like Brain Power again :confused: :confused:
 
Kauto Abu said:
The Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on good ground was ran at 12 seconds above course average and 5-6 seconds faster than previous Christmas Hurdles. It was a fast run race to say the least ensured by MTOY & TNO battling for the lead throughout. Yanworth was the first off the bridle before turning in so not sure a faster pace will suit!! His ability to quicken off a fast pace will be his undoing in the champion against speed horses. Ch'Tibello certainly finished in the same county as Yanworth off a fast pace at Kempton. Actually he finished in the same parish!! He confirmed that form yesterday.


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You go back and check your facts Kauto you are miles out.

The Xmas hurdle was not a fast time far from it. Faugheen ran in a bog and doodled round in the same time Yanworth did in good ground.

Thexact opposite will happen in a Champion Hurdle where horses like Ch'Tibello and Sceau Royal are concerned.

They are fine running in these Mickey Mouse trials and all the dummies telling us because horse x beat horse y by z lengths he's a Champion Hurdle horse.

90% of the time they end up tailed off when it comes to the real thing and i'd give anyone 100/1 about Ch'Tibello not shitting a brick when the tap is turned on at Cheltenham and he won't get within 15 lengths of Yanworth who might not even win the race.

It's a whole different world out there......Example.... Lil Rockefeller ran Yanworth to 3/4 length he also ran in a CH and was beaten further than a good tiger woods drive. Nicky's Vaniteux ran the New One close went to the Champion Hurdle and was tailed off

Once in a Blue Moon a dog like my pet hate Sublimity comes along and for some unknown reason everything falls for them and you get a huge upset but the last time I looked the moon was looking a nice shades of white and yellow
 
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Ivantheterrible said:
For what it's worth, owner's son on Twitter dropping some strong hints that CH is now Moon Racer's preferred target....
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Part of the reason why committing money to this market right now is madness. There's every chance Moon Racer will run in this and we're still waiting on which bullet WPM will fire.
 
TheBear said:
Part of the reason why committing money to this market right now is madness. There's every chance Moon Racer will run in this and we're still waiting on which bullet WPM will fire.
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take your pick......Hurricane Fly's statue has been supplemented for the Champion Hurdle or fFugheen makes an amzing recovery
 
Tanlic said:
You go back and check your facts Kauto you are miles out.

The Xmas hurdle was not a fast time far from it. Faugheen ran in a bog and doodled round in the same time Yanworth did in good ground.
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May I suggest you check your facts Tanlic!! Faugheen ran his two Christmas hurdles wins on anything but a bog! He ran on Good/soft in 2014, the same in 2015 with a touch of soft in places. Here's the official Turftrax going archive report if you don't believe me.

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This years win by Yanworth was ran on Good, Good/soft in places so it wasn't the huge differentials you're suggesting.


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Timeform sectional reports also suggests it was a true run race;

"It took a well-run race for Yanworth to get on top. Sectionals suggest The New One paid slightly for doing plenty up front, but not enough to cost him the race"


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Regardless of pace and tactics Yanworth has always come through and even now after a small injury he still was good enough to beat the horse, Ch'Tibello, that I need to remind some of you has come only 1 length off Altior. Ch'Tibello is a proper horse. Yanworth will be much suited by Cheltenham test and any horse who can give a 3 length beating to TNO at his preferred track Kempton is capable of winning more than half of last 20 renewals of the CH. I don't see why Yanworth is such a big price still, he should be close to evens and close to 6/4 on the day, but I imagine BG decision would be easy enough to make from a form pov, but hard considering the odds and the fact that jockeys rarely go against the market.
 
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Kauto wtf is that meant to be?

Here are the facts

Yanworth hdle course 6.6 good ground winning time 3.45.20

Faugheen 2014 hdle 5.8 course good/soft ground 3.46.30

Where on earth do you get the idea Yanworth ran a time 5 or 6 seconds faster than previous Xmas hurdles..FAKE NEWS hits talkinghorses is it?

Those races were run on heavy ground? Like MTOY
 
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Tanlic said:
Kauto wtf is that meant to be?

Here are the facts

Yanworth hdle course 6.6 good ground winning time 3.45.20

Faugheen 2014 hdle 5.8 course good/soft ground 3.46.30
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You'll spot the actual official times on top right hand corner there Tanlic. Not yours. What ever those Ladyboys are selling you as watches out there they're not efficient. That's for sure. Faugheen winning time was 3.49.80, not 3.46.30.



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You have Faugheen's winning time well wrong and again,it was not ran on soft ground. At least you've changed your original notion that it was a 'bog' You also had Yanworth's winning time slightly wrong.

PS. The 12 seconds i referred to was above the course average winning time. Nothing to do with the race being ran 12secs faster!! If you read the post fully you'd clearly see that!!

I see you have since edited your mistake tho.



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That is where you are going wrong.........those times are not rubbish just very close to rubbish The official time AS IT IDS CALLED was 3.46.30 for the 2014 race.

The times are adjusted from when the race is deemed to have started not from flag fall............eg Yanworth's real time was 3.51 from the moment the flag fell.........they took about 5 seconds to get going

You should go to the Jockey Club website and check times because you simply can't trust any website
 
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Aughex said:
Regardless of pace and tactics Yanworth has always come through and even now after a small injury he still was good enough to beat the horse, Ch'Tibello, that I need to remind some of you has come only 1 length off Altior. Ch'Tibello is a proper horse. Yanworth will be much suited by Cheltenham test and any horse who can give a 3 length beating to TNO at his preferred track Kempton is capable of winning more than half of last 20 renewals of the CH. I don't see why Yanworth is such a big price still, he should be close to evens and close to 6/4 on the day, but I imagine BG decision would be easy enough to make from a form pov, but hard considering the odds and the fact that jockeys rarely go against the market.
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You know Augie nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and boy have you got loads of it :lol: The friggin horse hit 7/1 after the Kingwell with a bookie of a 100 years experience behind him.

There is a rule on this forum that says everyone is entitled to their opinion............If I ran a petition to exclude you my bet is you would be the first to sign it :lol:

The only time Yanworth will hit evens is if he is going to the last pulling a cart and the only horse in front of him is MTOY
 
Tanlic said:
That is where you are going wrong.........those times are not rubbish just very close to rubbish The official time AS IT IDS CALLED was 3.46.30 for the 2014 race.

The times are adjusted from when the race is deemed to have started not from flag fall............eg Yanworth's real time was 3.51 from the moment the flag fell.........they took about 5 seconds to get going

You should go to the Jockey Club website and check times because you simply can't trust any website
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I thought official times (for several years now) are recorded from when they pass the start rather than when the flag falls?

Can't see any access to official times at the JC site either.
 
Tanlic said:
Watch the race there's a clock attached.....best site for times has always been the racing post others are lackadaisical
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The RP site uses official times. That's what I use.

The times I have for the two races are:

2014: 3m 47.7s (my time rating for Faugheen 170)
2015: 3m 45.2s (Yanworth 162?)

I have the ground riding some way slower in 2014.
 
Not as slow as you Dessie...........you're a year behind on both:p

The 2014 was run in 3m 46.30s and was slower ground that Yanworth ran in and Faugheen was never out of a canter beat a horse into 3rd called Blue Heron who actually p1ssed up in the Kingwell Hurdle that season of all races
 
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Tanlic said:
You know Augie nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and boy have you got loads of it :lol: The friggin horse hit 7/1 after the Kingwell with a bookie of a 100 years experience behind him.

The only time Yanworth will hit evens is if he is going to the last pulling a cart and the only horse in front of him is MTOY
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I know it hit 7s, hilarious. It'll be 2/1 fav on the day if BG chooses him. If not he'll start 3/1 7/2 and provide some value for us believers.
 
gus said:
I like the horse and he clearly has a respectable chance in the big one but "close to evens" is ludicrous.
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I know its insane evens but what are his challengers ? You could've made a case for Jezki but he's some way past his best over 2. Petit who's only just this season found his form? Does he have the class for a CH? BDair who just beat a 140 handicapper a length whilst receiving 4 lb? His best form is coming 3rd in the Supreme, will he replicate that after a year with few fences on the way? and is that good enough anyway vs Yanworth? TNO NC? They are high quality hurdlers but the latter lost most of his form lately, will he return to his best in time for Chelt? Lots of question marks for anyone but Yanworth who's done it despite the course not suiting and as I've said beating TNO by 3 lengths at level weights at his preferred track equals to a CHer in the making any way I look at it. With Faugheen and AP gone who is there to put a 170 figure to stop him?
 
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Richard Pitman just told Matt Chapman that he spoke to Sir AP after Yanworth's race on Saturday; and AP said he won't run in the Champion hurdle after that!!!
 
DannyB said:
I see PP price it up that Geraghty more likely to ride Yanworth over Buv.
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Flip flopped now. 4/6 Buv, 11/10 Yanworth. In a way id love to see him go for Yanworth if it meant BD price would get bigger. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if Yanworth went to the Stayers tho.


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And Ch'Tibello to have a minor wind op. They felt he didn't get home fully in the Kingwell. 50/50 to make festival.


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