The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

Strange race.

My first reaction is that Yanworth and Ch'tibello have run close to their Christmas Hurdle form under similar tactics and the proximity of Melodic Rendezvous points to form being as ordinary as I thought the Kempton form was.

The quandary for me is where does it leave Sceau Royal? Until the last flight he did everything as I had anticipated. I expected him to cruise up to the Yanworth before sprinting away from him but it didn't happen and he couldn't even get past Ch'tibello.

There's no doubt in my mind he travelled by far like the best horse in the race and I look forward to reading Alan King's review during the week. Maybe he needed this.

Confidence is obviously dented but not destroyed.
 
SR will be better on decent ground, good ew chance.

Yanworth will be a nice price on the day as Barry will most likely choose BUV
 
Yanworth needs the top speed race to start sooner; if he were mine I'd have him make the running, press on well before the downhill and get em at it. If that backfired what do they lose; they'd be getting Petit Mouchir off the bridle early and giving the ideal race to Buveur D'Air!
 
yanworth will need every yard of the hill i suspect. can seem him struggling coming down the hill over the 2nd and 3rd last but if he's anywhere near the front over the last he'll be dangerous.
 
First off that race was run to suit Sceau Royal as they couldn't keep up a decent gallop and he still got beat. He has no chance in the Champion Hurdle and I suspect Daryl Jacobs may end up riding Footpad

Yanworth keeps pulling it out the bag but that is not a plus it's a huge minus. If he runs like that in the Champion Hurdle they will off and gone before he can get into top gear.

As for your idea Maxbet that's a sure fire way to get him beat he wouldn't have the early pace to take a Champion Hurdle field along.......His best bet is to drop out and make his move early just after 4 out and hopefully be in full flight going to the last.

If he sits too long and Petite Mouchair does his party trick of suddenly injection pace into the race so unless Yanworth is already in top gear travelling over him he'll be left for dead and this horse won't be stopping

I fear the course and B D'air much more than Yanworth
 
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Some good points there Tanlic but Yanworth will surely benefit from a faster run race, may even jump better.

He was the last one off the bridle off a slow run race, (the chase was run faster) headed in a relative sprint, then tenaciously battled back.

The run for home will start a lot further out, stiffer track and up hill finish....Geraghty has a headache.

Yanworth tightened generally in the betting, Petit Mouchoir went pink with PP and only Hills went blue. Buv went both ways with very divided opinions.

I'll stick my neck out and say he'll plump for Yanworth.
 
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Don't know much about the jockey, but he made a poor job of setting the pace and it turned out much less of a test than it could have been.
Yanworth probably suffered more than most as he was fighting for his head for much of the first circuit.THe blinds didn't help much either as he was positively novicey at a number of hurdles. Did all he had to though, without being asked a serious question. Wouldn't be at all Surprised to See MTOY making the pace for him at Cheltenham, hopefully with a more clued up jockey in the plate, and still think BG would opt for him over BD, though his hurdling has to be a worry.

ps Alan King's view:
Considering Yanworth´s interrupted build up he will definitely come on a lot for this run as he was only 90% this afternoon and this course will not be for him as it´s very sharp and he needs a proper gallop which is why we wanted to go to Sandown. We put the cheekpieces on him to sharpen up his jumping and it seems to have had the desired effect as he was a better this time around. He was not hugely impressive but he has won the race and he is now in the mix for the Champion Hurdle
 
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Nothing much learned today except cheekpieces did nothing much for Yanworth's jumping. You can't and don't win champion hurdles jumping like that. Both PM & BD will take lengths off him at hurdles if he jumps like that next month. He was practically landing at 45 degrees at some of his hurdles.

Otherwise, allowing for Yanworth's hold up with his muscular injury, he has almost ran an identical race to the Christmas Hurdle with Ch'tibello confirming form. The worry tho for anyone clinging to that line would be the proximity of Melodic Rendezvous at the last hurdle. He was bang there before tiring on the run in having pressed Raven Black for the lead at the first in the back straight. You have to go back to December '14 to find his last win!!

Once again Geraghty had to get serious with him and hit him 6 serious flakes after the last to prevail. Lads will point to courses etc, but over 2m he is going to be taken off his feet full stop against speed horses. Doesn't matter where it's run! He is not a speed horse. He ran in the Neptune last year and was intended to be trained for the Stayers this year 'til Harry came along. I would be surprised if he chose Yanworth over Buveur D'air after that.


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To a degree yes, but over 20f and above. And his most impressive win was over 20f on heavy!!!


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Cannot fathom why anyone would retain confidence in Yanworth after that.

Geraghty will want to be on the traveller rather than the grinder, imo, and I cannot envisage the circumstances where he chooses Yanworth over Buveur D'Air.

I don't have a position on the CH beyond my Quixotic bet on Footpad, and have absolutely no axe to grind, but there are a few on here who I'd have expected to have taken a slightly more realistic view of Yanworth's chance. For me, Geraghty does not pass over the chance on BDA, to ride a horse who was basically all-out to beat a handicapper like Ch'Tibello. Geraghty riding Yanworth in the Champion Hurdle is a 3/1 chance, let alone him winning it.
 
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Really........Opposition aside his defeats have come on stiffer tracks ie Cheltenham and Ascot he's never been beaten on a flat galloping track............look like The New One in disguise to me :0)
 
Maxbet said:
Some good points there Tanlic but Yanworth will surely benefit from a faster run race, may even jump better.

He was the last one off the bridle off a slow run race, (the chase was run faster) headed in a relative sprint, then tenaciously battled back.

The run for home will start a lot further out, stiffer track and up hill finish....Geraghty has a headache.

Yanworth tightened generally in the betting, Petit Mouchoir went pink with PP and only Hills went blue. Buv went both ways with very divided opinions.

I'll stick my neck out and say he'll plump for Yanworth.
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I heard through the grapevine Geraghty said he was sticking with Yanworth but that was weeks ago. After that performance I wouldn't bet on it.

That is the problem with the betting if Geraghty does stick with Yanworth it will cause a huge ripple in the market may even turn it on it's head.

Anyway the market has a false favourite at the moment There is no way on this planet should Buveur D'air be favourite. What the bookies are doing is factoring in Nicky Henderson and even moreso JP mCmanus and how popular they will be on the day not in the anti-post market which takes peanuts in comparison to what happens on the day.

If you believe like I do the winner will come from the top 3 in the market 300 quid will get you 280 quid by dutching them on the machine which is a cracking bet if you don't fancy Brain Power
 
Grasshopper said:
Geraghty will want to be on the traveller rather than the grinder, imo, and I cannot envisage the circumstances where he chooses Yanworth over Buveur D'Air.

I don't have a position on the CH beyond my Quixotic bet on Footpad, and have absolutely no axe to grind, but there are a few on here who I'd have expected to have taken a slightly more realistic view of Yanworth's chance. For me, Geraghty does not pass over the chance on BDA, to ride a horse who was basically all-out to beat a handicapper like Ch'Tibello. Geraghty riding Yanworth in the Champion Hurdle is a 3/1 chance, let alone him winning it.
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SR apart, Yanworth travelled over the whole field yesterday, despite his sloppy jumps at the majority of hurdles. Patently lacks the instant acceleration to cope with an indifferent pace, but, given a proper test, Ch'Tibello wouldn't finish in the same County.
Yanworth clearly has a massive engine, and the pace problem is easily addressed, but his hurdling technique is more of a worry, and AK has a mountain to climb to get it sorted before the Festival.
 
The Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on good ground was ran at 12 seconds above course average and 5-6 seconds faster than previous Christmas Hurdles. It was a fast run race to say the least ensured by MTOY & TNO battling for the lead throughout. Yanworth was the first off the bridle before turning in so not sure a faster pace will suit!! His ability to quicken off a fast pace will be his undoing in the champion against speed horses. Ch'Tibello certainly finished in the same county as Yanworth off a fast pace at Kempton. Actually he finished in the same parish!! He confirmed that form yesterday.

Either Ch'tibello is now running up to a mark of around 165 now or the 167 for Yanworth on current form is flattering him. Somehow I don't think it's the former.


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DannyB said:
I see PP price it up that Geraghty more likely to ride Yanworth over Buv.
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He could well do, it wouldn't be the first time he have picked the wrong lad. He'll also get a feel for Sutton Place again today. To be honest it would surprise me somewhat giving Yanworth's jumping issues but personally I would love to see Nico De Boinville ride Buveur D'air in the champion hurdle. He always has a horse in the right position and is fairly familiar with him from riding him out at home. Just so long as Fehily doesn't get it if Geraghty goes with Yanworth!! He gives him way too much to do. Even at Aintree last year when he beat PM he anchored him out the back again and you use way too much juice moving into position.


As a BD fan I was pleased to see the form of last years Supreme franked again yesterday when Tombstone lowered the colours of Jezki & Rashaan quite convincingly yesterday. He clearly came on a lot from his first run of the season when attempting to give Jezki 6lbs and put in a really good performance yesterday.


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seems like an error by paddy really when you consider buv is the fav

i would't make it long odds on but those prices look the wrong way round to me
 
Not sure what Buveur Dair did it at Sandown when cruising to beat Rayvin Black and Irving on yesterday's performance. Evidence that he has alive and four legs?
 
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