The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

Kauto Abu said:
Buveur D'air was back schooling over hurdles before it was announced Faugheen was withdrawn from Leopardstown. This is from Hendersons blog sent out the day before the latest Faugheen injury;

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Indeed Geraghty had even schooled him also before the AP announcement was made both over fences and hurdles. He mentioned that on tv the other day to Lydia Hislop on Racing UK so it was obviously something they were toying with for a few weeks. The fact he was given an entry and Altior wasn't would also would suggest it was a little more than an afterthought!! As Henderson remarked he has the champion hurdle entry 'for a reason'. That reason being he was burning up the gallops at home.

However it was his work and home and the fact he was practically hurdling his fences which brought them fully around to the conclusion of the champion hurdle. Look at his last run at Warwick where he met the last few fences skew ways! No point having that engine and losing ground at your fences. When they schooled him over hurdles he came to life again. Decision was made.


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Rather than "burning up the gallops" I'd interpret that as 'he's a very slick hurdler' which are entirely different things. Your info from your friend could be construed in much the same way too.
Clearly he's a very quick jumper, but that's not what lost him the Supreme, and there's very little in his form to suggest - on decent ground - that won't be the same at an even higher level.
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reet hard said:
and there's very little in his form to suggest - on decent ground - that won't be the same at an even higher level
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That's the thing though Reet, I don't see this as a higher level - quite the opposite in fact - as Altior and Min are probably better than anything in this field.
 
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If you interpret it that way that's fine. The fact that Corky Browne said to him that BD was the fastest horse in their yard right now as well as separately mentioning how good his schooling is going back over hurdles again clearly suggests he is moving fairly well. You'd also swear the supreme and the Aintree race were run on a bog. Good to soft ground with a small bit of soft in places at Liverpool.


I remember Jezki beaten into 3rd by Champagne Fever & MTOY in the supreme and coming back to win the CH the next year.


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wilsonl said:
That's the thing though Reet, I don't see this as a higher level - quite the opposite in fact - as Altior and Min are probably better than anything in this field.
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As a general rule of thumb, I'd say there's 10lb class difference between the 2 races, Lee and there's little doubt something will emerge from the woodwork to maintain the balance within that region.
 
Kauto Abu said:
If you interpret it that way that's fine. The fact that Corky Browne said to him that BD was the fastest horse in their yard right now as well as separately mentioning how good his schooling is going back over hurdles again clearly suggests he is moving fairly well. You'd also swear the supreme and the Aintree race were run on a bog. Good to soft ground with a small bit of soft in places at Liverpool.
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I remember Jezki beaten into 3rd by Champagne Fever & MTOY in the supreme and coming back to win the CH the next year.

Look at yourself, Kauto; the Aintree ground is drying out every time you post.:D
 
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Kauto Abu said:
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To be fair RH, from the main racing websites we have two good/softs, one good/soft - soft in places & one good/soft - good in places. The going stick would suggest the actual going was good/soft.

I also see where Fehily after this win that "he's as good a jumper of a hurdle as I've ever sat on". Didn't he win a champion hurdle once on Rock on Ruby??!


Also this quote from Mr Henderson himself yesterday. He does more worrying about going conditions than the clerks of all the course put together.

"I was speaking to Barry at Cheltenham last week before the announcement of Faugheen not running in Ireland that I wanted to switch Buveur D'Air.

"He likes soft ground, but good ground will be fine. It was good enough ground in the Supreme (when third) last year, but they just all got first run on him. With a bit of luck, he would have finished second and anything that finishes second to Altior is a good horse."


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I'll draw your attention to this again RH from few pages back when you were claiming BD raced on soft at the festival & Aintree. The rain came at Aintree Friday night which turned it soft for the national on Saturday. Friday, the day BD beat PM it was good/soft with one or two reporting it with some soft in places.

The official turftrax website archive suggests the same so as I say it's far from the bog you seem to think it was. You'll also see where it turned soft over night after heavy rain. The horse has top grade 1 form on decent ground finishing an unlucky 3rd in the supreme and winning at Aintree.

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In a normal year I'd totally agree but this isn't a normal year and I now think we're looking at the best Supreme since 2011 and the worst Champion since 2009.

and Buveur Dair, while arguably offering no value right now is the only one capable of maintaining the spread you mention.

Edit : When I say worst Champion since 2009 - I mean this years not last year.
 
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Last year's Supreme and Champion for comparison:

Time
Sup 3.46.00
CH 3.45.10

Weight
Sup 11-7
CH 11-10 (Annie 7lb mares allowance)

Distance 1st to 3rd
Sup 8.5l
CH 4.75l

That to me puts the Supreme third, Buveur D'Air, about 10lb behind the CH third, Nichols Canyon and, indeed, after the races their respective marks were 152 and 162.

That, of course, has no bearing on how the pair will run this year.
 
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Thanks Archie. I'm a visuals man as opposed to time but these things clearly have to be considered and that makes interesting reading.

I pay zero attention to the subsequent OR ratings because we know that higher ratings are always awarded for running in open company, as an example just look at West Approach's rating (157) compared to the horse that's beat him three times this season, Wholestone (145), purely because he's since been running in open company.
 
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Good post archie. Of course you must also consider the fact of improving novices from last year after a summer of grass and strengthening up!!

From your evidence how far back would Petit Mouchoir have been to NC? That form has been totally turned on its head this year. Last years Supreme looks to have been exceptional.


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Petit Mouchoir was about 6.5l behind Buveur at Cheltenham and came out of the race on 144. He narrowed that gap to 0.25l at Aintree and was raised to 151. His exploits this season have seen him up to 162 with NC down to 157.
I'd be inclined to let the market settle down over the next couple of weeks before considering even a NRNB bet. If, but probably only if, Limini beats Apples Jade when they meet, you'd think that VVM might get a shot at the Champion. Also they would be thinking long and hard about whether to supplement Yorkhill or let NC have another crack.
 
Latest Timeform ratings for hurdlers. They raised BD 7lbs from his Novice Hurdle form.

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Pipe might be brave enough to go all or broke with moon racer

Am on holiday so out of the loop.

is Faugheen going to be retired and any indication of WPM rerouting anything now
 
Pipe's latest blog

"In his blog David Pipe said: "We may get a little run into Moon Racer somewhere although at this stage he is likely to go straight to Cheltenham next month. The main objective remains the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle."
 
Faugheen has stress fracture but they will try and have him ready for the Irish Champion Hurdle on April 28th (don't hold your breath)
 
edgt said:
Any chance Douvan might attempt the Flyingbolt double of Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase ?
Flyingbolt's prep was Thyestes Chase by the way. (Tied Cottage Chase had not been heard of)
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Unfortunately not. I am sure they introduced a ruling to say there must be 2 days between races at the Festival but if any horse could pull of the double it would be him:eek:
 
Mullins must have had an inkling that faugheen wouldn't make it therefore I'm sure York hill has been trained with half an eye on the champion hurdle. He looks the value bet to me as he stays further which is generally what you need to win a chsmpion hurdle.
 
Edinahib said:
Mullins must have had an inkling that faugheen wouldn't make it therefore I'm sure York hill has been trained with half an eye on the champion hurdle. He looks the value bet to me as he stays further which is generally what you need to win a champion hurdle.
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Betbright appear to be going 1/3 odds first 5 in their e/w betting terms and it doesn't look like culpable error as their other festival races e/w terms are as you'd expect and the place odds were confirmed in the potential returns on my bet slip.

There are one or two where you'd be surprised if they didn't manage first five, even if horses such as Yorkhill or VVM turned up.
 
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I really like Yorkhill and he was very impressive in the Neptune and the 1 3/4 length distance doesn't come close to describing how superior he was to Yanworth that day.

The problem as I see it he looked so much at home over the longer trip plus his first race over hurdles WPM ran him at 2m4f on heavy ground indicating he thought he was a stayer.

He has plenty toe but i think the likes of Petite Mouchor and Buvuer D'air will prove a bit to nippy for him if he ends up running
 
His jumping markedly left since aintree would have to be a huge concern. You couldn't afford to be losing ground like that in a champion hurdle. I can't remember any recent winner of the race getting away with that sort of chink in his armour. If they ironed that out tho he'd be a massive player.


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Granted grassy being a left handed track but so was Leopardstown last month and Aintree last year and they were hardly jaw dropping performances. His jumping caused him issues. He doesn't jump left he jumps markedly left sometimes and in the helter skelter of a champion hurdle that cant be good. You just lose too much ground. At Aintree I seem to recall he also hung so badly left after the last hurdle in the straight he almost joined the national course. There was a line of photographers on the chase course and their heart rate certainly would've picked up as he veered towards them. Townend really earned his crust that day. Leopardstown over fences last month was worse again.

Anyway, I suppose it's all the one unless he's supplemented.


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Jumping left at Cheltenham is clearly nowhere near the problem it is at say Kempton but it's not a good trait to have and could still cause him to lose momentum if he were to do it at the last when in contention.

and he was actually hanging badly at Aintree, not just his jumping and he won't win a Champion Hurdle doing that.
 
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He won't win it anyway, as he isn't good enough at 2m, and they would be better sticking to fences/JLT, imo.

Just not convinced that his jumping of hurdles is going to cause him all that much grief should they switch him - though acknowledge there's plenty of room to wander about after the last on the Old Course.
 
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