The Road To The 2018 Champion Chase

[Grasshopper]

I'll crack the jokes thank you:blink: Considering WPM will only tun him if he is 100% sure he's ok that's about as daft a question as it gets,

Patrick Mulling would throw a dicky-fit if you asked him that.

Douvan would be 2 stone better than Min and even Altior wouldn't get him off the bridle.

I don't think you quite realize Douvan is a deity among horses..Pegasus himself couldn't beat him when he's right.

Hope that clears that up for you:lol:

Bihay yersail.

Both Altior and Min are in a completely different league to any other 2-mile chaser he has faced to date, and I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see both of them have his drawers down......assuming he even makes it to Cheltenham.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Having Douvan in the CC would be the best possible thing to happen to Altior.

I can't think of a better horse to set the race up for Altior. The track record could be at risk despite the ground.

 

[Tanlic]

Watching last year's QMCC Douvan jumped badly early and left his back legs behind in a couple of fences and then put that short extra stride in at the fence after the stands.

He he will have to jump much better this year - question I suppose us when did he injure himself in the race last year?

Had to be early doors or even before the race. Some injuries don't show up until they actually race. Ricci went from saying he was in fantastic form early on in the season to saying they were never 100% happy with him on the build up to the QMCC a couple of months after the race.....not saying he wasn't talking through rose colours but there's a possibility he went there carrying the fracture.

I like many was glued to the screen to watch the race but by the 3rd fence I knew something was wrong....no doubt in my mind he was carrying the injury going into the race or copped it at the 1st fence or at the latest the 3rd

 

[Ardross]

I take what Ricci says with a pinch of salt.

I hope he turns up in his best form so we can all see. I should also take what Danny Mullins said with a sackful.

Ruby said he thought the injury was caused when he slipped and put in an extra stride in to the fence after the stands as I recall.

 

[Tanlic]

Bihay yersail.

Both Altior and Min are in a completely different league to any other 2-mile chaser he has faced to date, and I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see both of them have his drawers down......assuming he even makes it to Cheltenham.

Well aren't you the neg head? I would say Douvan is 2 stone better than any thing Altior or Min especially have faced.

Min wouldn't get Douvan out of 1st gear.....I can only assume you are assuming he is still carrying an injury to come across with something so wildly off the mark

 

[Double Handful]

no doubt in my mind he was carrying the injury going into the race or copped it at the 1st fence or at the latest the 3rd

Bit of a contradiction there Tanlic. No doubt in your mind it was before the race..................... or maybe between fences 1 - 3 :blink:
I don't think there's any doubt he did it over the first 3 fences, but that's just my opinion.

 

[Grasshopper]

Well aren't you the neg head? I would say Douvan is 2 stone better than any thing Altior or Min especially have faced.

Min wouldn't get Douvan out of 1st gear.....I can only assume you are assuming he is still carrying an injury to come across with something so wildly off the mark

Douvan beat Simply Ned 15L into 3rd in the G1 2-mile chase at the Leopardstown Xmas meeting in 2016, doing so 'readily'.

Min beat the same horse at the DRF by 12L, doing so 'easily'.

Altior beat Fox Norton 13L in the Game Spirit conceding weight, whereas Douvan beat the same horse 11L in the Arkle off levels.

The only two-stones that are relevant to this particular discussion, are that ones that pass for brain-cells in that heid of yours! :lol:

 

[archie]

Rightly or wrongly (and he ain't no Aidan with a new one every year), Willie would consider Douvan as up there with the best that he's ever had. If he shows up in top shape, he wins and 4/1 nrnb is massive.

 

[Grasshopper]

There's no need for you to jump to Mullins defence every time a word is said against one of his horses, archie. I'm well aware how good Douvan is - me and Tanlic are just shooting the sh*it here.

 

[archie]

Not jumping to Willie or Tanlic's defence here, Grassy, just passing on the information. I haven't taken the price yet myself!

 

[Tanlic]

The thing that gets me is not what Willie says which is next to nothing nor what Danny says but what yer man says and yer man won't have anyone say anything is within stones of Douvan. Of all his years in racing says yer man he has never seen a horse do thing so easily like kick good horses like Faugheen and Vautour aside like they were selling platers. TO ME YER MAN KNOWS YA KNOW

 

[Tanlic]

Not jumping to Willie or Tanlic's defence here, Grassy, just passing on the information. I haven't taken the price yet myself!

Talking about info I sent this tweet to wpm the other day...
@WillieMullinsNH Right Willie time for an update on Douvan...chance of making it over 50% or under 50%? Don't avoid the bloody question

Then it hit the press giving percentage odds...coincidence or not?

 

[edgt]

Anyone here think Altior might bounce ?

Ground at Newbury was terrible for a season debut and memories of Hurricane Fly in 2012 still hurt.

Just asking ....

 

[Desert Orchid]

I don't think so. Quite the opposite, for me.

He was fit to race in November and didn't have a hard race at Newbury. He'll do a Sprinter.

 

[Maruco]

Altior had an easy race at Newbury Eddie. He didn't need to come out of second gear, and to my eye he couldn't have had a more perfect prep. Also Henderson stated he was only ever off for two weeks for his Op and was race fit anyway.

On the Douvan subject, there can be absolutely no doubt that Douvan would be the number one if both he and Min are sent to the race. If Willie thought Douvan was going to be beaten by Min he'd split them up.

I'm not sure that Douvan will beat Altior though. Everyone is talking about how good a Champion Chaser Douvan is, but what is Willie's comparison from his own Champion Chaser's of the past? He's never had a Sprinter Sacre or a Remittance Man in his stable. Henderson is the only one of the two able to make a direct comparison to a true great Champion Chaser, and the feeling I have is he rates Altior with those two great names.

For what it's worth I think Douvan has the engine, but he's never totally convinced me with this jumping, and foot perfect and fast over his obstacles is an absolute must if he's going to serve it up to Altior.

 

[Frankel]

Anyone here think Altior might bounce ?

Ground at Newbury was terrible for a season debut and memories of Hurricane Fly in 2012 still hurt.

Just asking ....

Better ground may have been the doing of the Fly.

 

[granger]

Anyone here think Altior might bounce ?

Ground at Newbury was terrible for a season debut and memories of Hurricane Fly in 2012 still hurt.

Just asking ....

No because there was nowt wrong with him in the first place

 

[Grasshopper]

No because there was nowt wrong with him in the first place

What granger says.

Comparison with the Fly not really valid I don't think, Eddie. Hurricane Fly had been failing to please Mullins in his work in 2011/2012 season, and missed both the Morgiana and the December Hurdle because of it. Altior really only had a delayed start because of his wind-op.

 

[Double Handful]

I agree and made the same assumption DH. I had him on my radar for the Grand Annual prior to yesterday and thought he might have a quiet one out the back in prep, but yesterday's eye-catching run will certainly have blown his mark for a handicap. Davy on top is the perfect man to ride him for a place, picking up the pieces off a usually furious Champion Chase pace.

Just looking through the Handicaps in more detail this morning, Maruco, and Ordinary World certainly had his H'Cap mark blown.
In fact, of all of the Phil Smith UK added lbs to Irish horses, this stands out to me as one of, if not the most unfair!
He raced off 149 lto at the DRF and Phil Smith has given him 157 for Cheltenham! As eye catching as that run was I think 8lbs is too harsh.
Effectively rules out the Grand annual completely and with Douvan apparently an increasingly likely runner in the QMCC, getting placed in it now seems a very tall order indeed.

 

[Maruco]

Yes I agree DH. I wonder if they might bypass the Uk altogether and wait for Fairyhouse.

 

[Double Handful]

Yes I agree DH. I wonder if they might bypass the Uk altogether and wait for Fairyhouse.

Interestingly, shortly after my above post I listened to the most recent Final Furlong podcast where Rory Delargy & Kevin Blake were debating Ordinary Worlds chances in the Grand Annual. Firstly, they were very sure that he would definitely be going for the GA (rightly or wrongly?), and the QMCC wasn't even mentioned. Blake didn't give him much hope but Delargy was adamant that the handicaps have evolved somewhat and that class is coming to the fore on a more regular basis. And that he's a believer in looking towards the top of the handicap and a 'Class' horse carrying 11-12 wouldn't put him off at all. He was quite keen on OW's chances.

 

[Double Handful]

I've just watched the 2m chase at the DRF again now. I've tried to view it with a fresh and open mind after listening to Delargy's comments.
Min was put up from OR 160 to 167 after the victory. Ordinary World was jumping the last almost upsides. He was at most a length down on landing over the last.

Now, Danny Mullins hadn't touched Min yet and was still on the bridle. OW had been shuffled/ridden along to close approaching the last, but the whip had yet to be drawn on either. It's subjective and debatable just how close OW would have finished to Min, as Min did power up the home straight. But lets just say OW would have got to within 2 lengths at the line and Min's OR of 167 is accurate. What would that make Ordinary Worlds 'true' rating? 162/163 perhaps?

I suppose I'm trying to objectively make the case that Ordinary world off 157 in the Grand Annual could possibly still have 5 or 6 lbs in hand. I'm having 2nd thoughts now about discounting him for the GA. I'll be watching QMCC declarations closely as if he is not declared it's encouragement that connections think he can be competitive in the GA off 157.

 

[Grasshopper]

Think it's dangerous to mark the horse-up so close to the winner, who was going effortlessly, Shane. Min would have been value for a LOT more than 2lbs, even if OW had got over the last cleanly.

A 160+ rating is high-class, and not much of a kick in the arse off top-class, and you should take OWs other efforts into account, when assessing whether he is genuinely in that bracket.

For my money, his race-record says that he is almost certainly not at that level, and I'd say a mark of 157 is possibly even a little on the harsh side, for a horse that couldn't take advantage of a 10lbs weight-concession from Ball D'Arc (albeit FTO against a race-fit rival), and who finished 15L behind Min, the time before. His Irish OR of 155 looks about bang-on to me.

 

[Double Handful]

Think it's dangerous to mark the horse-up so close to the winner, who was going effortlessly, Shane. Min would have been value for a LOT more than 2lbs, even if OW had got over the last cleanly.

A 160+ rating is high-class, and not much of a kick in the arse off top-class, and you should take OWs other efforts into account, when assessing whether he is genuinely in that bracket.

For my money, his race-record says that he is almost certainly not at that level, and I'd say a mark of 157 is possibly even a little on the harsh side, for a horse that couldn't take advantage of a 10lbs weight-concession from Ball D'Arc (albeit FTO against a race-fit rival), and who finished 15L behind Min, the time before. His Irish OR of 155 looks about bang-on to me.

So in summary stick to my gut which told me he'd been harshly treated and he can't win a Grand Annual off 157 !

I'm always open to interpretations different to my own, which is why I reviewed it from a fresh angle after listening to that podcast today.

 

[Desert Orchid]

So in summary stick to my gut which told me he'd been harshly treated and he can't win a Grand Annual off 157 !

I'm always open to interpretations different to my own, which is why I reviewed it from a fresh angle after listening to that podcast today.

My inclination is to offer you some encouragement, DH.

That said, my angle for the race is to ignore Min altogether. It was a very fast race, made so by Special Tiara who probably went too fast up front and Min was ridden to make sure ST didn't get a free, easy lead. Ordinary World was kept back with the small midfield group, probably getting a more efficient ride, as was Simply Ned. Two out he and Simply Ned had closed down Min, who had closed down Special Tiara, but Min was still to be asked a question. Going to the last Ordinary World, under strong riding was getting away from Simply Ned but Min wasn't asked to do anything until leaving the last when he powered away. My gut instinct is to 'split the diff' between Min and Simply Ned, say six lengths (7lbs in my book), and rate the race via the ones around Simply Ned. It then all depends on how you rate the running of Simply Ned and Special Tiara.

Simply Ned's OR was 158 and he was giving OW 3lbs, so I'd be looking at 162 for Ordinary World. It means Special Tiara was below his peak by a few pounds, which can be explained by going too fast through the middle mile.

Then again, I think Simply Ned may be better than 158. I need to double-check but I have his best rating from last season at 164. The difficulty with that is that it makes Min uncomfortably high on 178+. My time ratings have Min on 175 which I think makes more sense as it also allows for him being better than the bare form since he wasn't at the extreme limit of his ability. That would put Ordinary World on about 166, which would put him in with a chance in the Grand Annual.

For me, though, I'm also in the camp that looks for class in this race and for horses that should be contesting Graded races but are being kept away from them to preserve lenient marks and I would suspect (haven't done my figures for the GA yet) that there's something not far below the top weights that are even better handicapped than Ordinary World.