The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

Who will win the 2018 CH

  • Buveur D'Air

    Votes: 17 54.8%

  • Faugheen

    Votes: 10 32.3%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 12.9%
  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
I’d love to see MTOY in this getting the weight, and with plenty pace guaranteed through TNO and Old Guard. In his absence, I’d be happy to ros-in with Melon. As crazy as it might sound, I can’t have TNO on this track.
 
Grasshopper said:
I’d love to see MTOY in this getting the weight, and with plenty pace guaranteed through TNO and Old Guard. In his absence, I’d be happy to ros-in with Melon. As crazy as it might sound, I can’t have TNO on this track.
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Cheltenham in general, or the new course over the old course? I'd be of the opinion that TNO is less suited to the old course. I think this will be a perfect sighter and rating of Melons ability in open company. On G/S or even soft over the new course, I rate TNO a consistent 165 horse. Should tell us a lot about Melon.

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Don't think there's a chance MTOY even gets a run on that ground.

Faugheen losing supporters left and right I see on the poll. Maybe Willie should have a change of heart and send the fking machine to Kempton.
 
Double Handful said:
Cheltenham in general, or the new course over the old course? I'd be of the opinion that TNO is less suited to the old course. I think this will be a perfect sighter and rating of Melons ability in open company. On G/S or even soft over the new course, I rate TNO a consistent 165 horse. Should tell us a lot about Melon.

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New Course is slightly less turning than the Old Course, so you may be right, DH. Fundamentally though, he jumps right, and has done for years, and it's a penalty on both courses, any way I look at it. He also has to concede four years to Melon, and I'm a lot less jazzed by the Greatwood run than some (he would have finished 5th at best if London Prize hadn't been fatally injured).

Cards on the table time.

To be fair to TNO, his handicap outings this year have been pretty good, and it's hard to knock the horse given my well-established position about wanting to see more good horses run in handicaps giving weight. My problem with TNO is that I basically think he is a fraud as a proper top-end 2-mile hurdler, and it would stick in my craw for him to win yet another decent race, for lack of any sort of serious opposition. Hopefully Melon works it right up him. I also think the trainer is an arsehole, and can't bear to listen to him eulogise once more, about a horse that is patently below G1 level, and always has been. Essentially, I should be an admirer of TNO, but I can't bring myself to do it, because NTD is full of sh*it.

PS. Aughex, don't bother your arse replying directly to this post. I know exactly where you stand on TNO, and have no intention of repeating myself, should you start trying to defend himself. :cool:
 
Grasshopper said:
To be fair to TNO, his handicap outings this year have been pretty good, and it's hard to knock the horse given my well-established position about wanting to see more good horses run in handicaps giving weight. My problem with TNO is that I basically think he is a fraud as a proper top-end 2-mile hurdler, and it would stick in my craw for him to win yet another decent race, for lack of any sort of serious opposition.
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I'm very much in agreement with you on this one. TNO is a pretty solid early-mid 160s horse and that's it. Beyond that, any chance of taking a good race depends on the opposition. But there really wouldn't be that many better horses in any given year. Some good ones will come along and then go chasing (Altior, even Buveur D'Air had a go before reverting, etc) so I think he's entitled to have his occasional day in the sun. If a weak Grade 1 falls into his lap so be it. Worse horses have won Grade 1s.
 
Grasshopper said:
I should be an admirer of TNO, but I can't bring myself to do it, because NTD is full of sh*it.
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Pretty harsh Nick. NTD wouldn't even be in the Premier League of Trainers who talk **** and put punters away. He strikes me as fundamentally honest, he's not afraid to give his horses proper campaigns, and his horses normally turn up where he says they're going to.
 
Never had a horse through his hands who he didn't think was a world-beater, Paul.....ever.

He isn't a put-away artist in the classic sense, but he is complete and utter flannel merchant.
 
With reference to TNO, he simply doesn't believe he's a three mile horse. That being the case two miles at Cheltenham, followed by two and half at Aintree are his obvious races. He could go to Punchestown as an alternative and skip The Festival I suppose. Either way he's too high in the hnadicap for the County or the Coral Cup, so I'm not sure he's been campaigned badly when there are few UK G1's and G2's over two and half miles.

NTD having faith in the TNO is surely not a bad thing if you owned him. And to be honest I can't think of many trainers who are better value for money. He doesn't have owners who spend the big money, but he always seems to find graded horses season after season. I reskon he's one of the few who overperform compared to the value of the horses he buys.
 
I'd say Simon Munir and Isaac Souede have a few quid between them, and he has something like 130 horses in his yard. Let's not kid ourselves on that he is trying to scratch a living from the game, and punching above his weight.

How do his fees compare with, say, Nicky Henderson and Ben Pauling (as examples)?
 
I'd forgotten about Munir and Souede tbh.

It wasn't fees I was referring to, but I'd imagine he'd be between those you mentioned Pauling would the cheapest, Henderson the most expensive, with NTD somewhere in between.

What I was driving at was that he always strikes me as one of those trainers that you'd get a much higher chance of what turns out to be a good horse for a less extravagant outlay. In other words he does a pretty good job in the sales ring, and he's clearly a good trainer. His record speaks for itself. Of the new trainers I'd put Pauling in the same category.
 
I remember Kevin Blake saying recently that one of the factors in the domination of Mullins and Elliot in Ireland is that their training fees are not much higher than a mid level trainer.

He was making the comparison to the flat where the gap is much bigger apparantly.

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Desert Orchid said:
I'm very much in agreement with you on this one. TNO is a pretty solid early-mid 160s horse and that's it. Beyond that, any chance of taking a good race depends on the opposition. But there really wouldn't be that many better horses in any given year. Some good ones will come along and then go chasing (Altior, even Buveur D'Air had a go before reverting, etc) so I think he's entitled to have his occasional day in the sun. If a weak Grade 1 falls into his lap so be it. Worse horses have won Grade 1s.
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There's a record holder of Irish G1s 2 miles that could hardly be classified as class 2 events(hint: Hurricane Fly)

Can we count the number of british horses better than TNO in the last 5 years? I think he's pretty underrated because his class is what kept him going all these years. The `14 CH was all his until losing momentum, position and many lengths mid-race, the 2 lengths in 3rd of a proper CH is all the evidence he's been a top class 2 miler and still is a high class one considering he's been suffering of kissing spine in the last 2 years.
 
Aughex said:
The `14 CH was all his until losing momentum, position and many lengths mid-race, the 2 lengths in 3rd of a proper CH is all the evidence he's been a top class 2 miler
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I can’t have that at all giving his history in the race. If you go back and look at his 4 Champion Hurdle appearances in the race he is outpaced at the exactly the same place, between the last 2 hurdles. Even if he wasn’t hampered by Our Conor’s fatal fall he still looses too much ground when outpaced to win a champion hurdle. It’s just too much ground to gain back and history shows that! When others quicken he can’t.

He did well to pass the fly, an old fly, up the hill but that was with 50 yards to go and he was always held by the front two in my opinion.


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Opinions can be easily challenged with facts but you haven't challenged anything I've said, you've just placed the facts of what happened in that particular race and translated into entirely different contexts to suit your opinion.

Also I can't have your opinion of H. Fly when facts show otherwise. His longevity alone marks him as one of the best 2 miles hurdlers in the past 20 or more years. By Ruby Walsh own admission he was pulverized by Jezki at P'town when they next met after the CH `14 but when he returned for the new season he was basically at his best and turned the table on Jezki 3 times(including Chelt) so he can't have been old the previous season, formbook shows he was not at his best and Mullins already claimed that couple of times before and after the event.
 
Grasshopper said:
I’d love to see MTOY in this getting the weight, and with plenty pace guaranteed through TNO and Old Guard. In his absence, I’d be happy to ros-in with Melon. As crazy as it might sound, I can’t have TNO on this track.
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I've gone with TNO but if PT has any brains and watches races he'll know that TNO tends to hit a flat spot just after 3 out (at Cheltenham) His best chance is kick then inject pace and if luck is with him he'll get far enough ahead to win.

Personally I don't rate him anywhere near CH class although Mullins is very sweet on him..but even he can be wrong ONCE!
 
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If the betting is accurate, Melon looks increasingly like a runner tomorrow in Cheltenham.
Was 10/3 yesterday morning and a general 7/4 shot now. If he turns up he goes of Fav for sure.
What time this morning are final Decs for this?

*Edit - Still not jocked up on RP site as of 08:45
 
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Not unusual for a WPM runner not to be kicked up until day of race.


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You wont find out until closer to midday. Mullins always leaves it ‘til last minute with UK runners.


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David Mullins is up and he is 7/4 fav. Still fancy TNO on that ground against him.


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That was a great race but I don't imagine we saw the Champion Hurdler in there.

I'd backed Ch'tibello and John Constable against the front ones but didn't know whether to cheer on The New One or My Tent from the run to the last!
 
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