I'm the second to vote 'other'. This is my reasoning.
It's still over 3 months to the race and past experience says that one or even both the principles won't line up but 'other', of course, will. If we look at the bookie's prices, assuming a 115% book, they are calling it something like
Evens - Other
6/4 - Faugheen
3/1 - Buveur D'Air
If the race were taking place tomorrow with every horse going there fit and ready, I'd be firmly in the Faugheen camp but that wasn't the proposition.
Yes, I know he showed improved form for the switch to fences but that was only part of it and Buveur D'air's Supreme run reminded me of his. He's a different, more finished horse now.
My point is that in Buveur D'air finishing third in what is looking like a comparable version of the Supreme, he lost little in defeat, especially considering he looked like he had plenty of improvement to come. Whereas Faugheen is coming back off an injury, will be 10 and aside from the 11 year old Fly, in Buveur D'air will be facing the best horse he's yet to come up against. Not ideal.
But my point is; he didn't produce when faced with top class opposition (could be inexperience, or maybe just wasn't up to it). Fair enough,He did in the CH, but only against 2 who had already given their all.
Just my opinion, but it's BDA who has a mountain to climb, rather than Faugheen.
You're forgetting how much petrol Buveur D'air used to get in that position tho Archie. It was more 3 or 4L than 2L coming down to the second last but it was nothing about not being able to kick, Supasunday literally came back on top of him as they turned in so he was forced around him turning in!! Fehily had gone for a gap but it closed. Being forced wide cost him another couple of lengths.
The best way to demonstrate what I'm talking about is with a series of freeze frames from the race itself. I'm of the opinion that BD was not only given a poor ride but he also met with trouble at the business end. He probably wouldn't have beaten Altior but he would have beaten Min and cut into the 7L winning distance. Of that I'm sure.
Min was second right the way around about a length off the leader Charbel where as BD was dead last passing the stands about 10L off.
For some unknown reason Fehily decided to anchor him out the back!! At the 4th hurdle BD was 12 of 14, still out the back. Charbel still lead at this stage, min was second tracking closely followed by Supasunday. Petit Mouchouir was fourth and Altior 5th! Fehily still held onto Buveur at the tail.
Approaching the sixth hurdle freewheeling down the hill Buveur D'air had moved into 10th while Altior & Min now held 2nd and 3rd place, a length off. Prime position. By the second last hurdle Buveur last he had taken 8th just behind PM 4L off the leaders. He had now made up 6 places from the start.
Rounding the home turn as Altior & Min kicked BD had taken 5th place. Fehily went to follow Min and scrape paint around the inside but was forced wide around Supasunday after he fell back on top of him and with PM still on inside of him that gap was closed.
He was now forced wide off the bend so had now gone from being one off the rail on the inside to 3 wide on the outside losing more ground.
He Passed Supasunday & Charbel in the straight.Turning in he was 4L behind Min who kept on the inside rounding the bend. At the line he was a length behind him having used far more petrol to get in a position to challenge and forced wide off the home bend.
I think it was a super run by a horse given too much to do who also met with trouble at the business end. Thinking back previous supreme winners, not many have come from last to front. They were always prominent or very handy. Also Archie I think the kick of acceleration your talking about was very much evident at Aintree last year when Fehily hit him a few cracks after the last. Himself & Petit Mouchouir pulled well clear of a very decent mare.
That’s where opinions differ Grass. You accept yours is valid and I except mine is. For example I don’t believe attempting to put a number of BD at Newcastle is valid either. Some will argue you have to.
It’s just all opinions.
Yes DO. Or making Annie Power a superstar for beating MTOY getting weight, but when BD beats him similarly drawing comparisons to a more competitive champion hurdle in 2016 as others would classify it, you get “ah it’s just MTOY”!!
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More or less bang-on what I would have given him, DO (149 with previously mentioned boatload of ++'s, FWIW).
I think you're being a little unfair to Istabraq though. Whilst he sometimes beat poor horses, he wasn't afforded high-ratings for it, and when he did meet good ones, he generally despatched them with similar authority. Certainly Moscow Flyer, Limestone Lad, and French Holly were all vastly superior animals to Irving or Flying Tiger.
A race fit 10yo who ran as consistently as ever. Giving his race record I’d consider him a very fair yardstick. The New One is another.
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That's what I take issue with. It's just not a valid comparison, imo.
None of it is relevant to BDA's chance this year though.
The Champion Hurdle of 2017, early and all as it is to be discussing it, has worked out very well form wise. A lot better than many were giving it credit for.
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Dangerous to draw a line between hurdling and chasing form, imo.
As you say - some differences of opinion, except where it comes to BDA's level, which is all that really matters.