The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle
- Thread starter Diamond Geezer
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Ivantheterrible
At the Start
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Can’t fault the logic here but, as you infer, should the two principals line up on the day then holding a ticket with ‘other’ scribbled on it might feel akin to be being on Liverpool John Moores in the Boat Race.
Hear what you're saying, Lee, but Altior was a 155 rated hurdler at that stage, and Min's proved no mug either.
Therein lies my comparison Reet.
Altior was a very high class novice and the more mature of the trio in his Supreme, whereas Buveur D'air ran a similar race to Sprinter in looking like his inexperience caught him out as they were going for home. FWIW Min was probably the least mature and I reckon time will tell he is a very, very good horse.
In the same way that Al Ferof's maturity was the key to him winning his Supreme. I am in absolutely no doubt that had the front three home in the 2011 Supreme run in the following year's Champion Hurdle then Al Ferof wouldn't have seen which way Sprinter or Spirit Son went.
My point is that in Buveur D'air finishing third in what is looking like a comparable version of the Supreme, he lost little in defeat, especially considering he looked like he had plenty of improvement to come. Whereas Faugheen is coming back off an injury, will be 10 and aside from the 11 year old Fly, in Buveur D'air will be facing the best horse he's yet to come up against. Not ideal.
Altior was a very high class novice and the more mature of the trio in his Supreme, whereas Buveur D'air ran a similar race to Sprinter in looking like his inexperience caught him out as they were going for home. FWIW Min was probably the least mature and I reckon time will tell he is a very, very good horse.
In the same way that Al Ferof's maturity was the key to him winning his Supreme. I am in absolutely no doubt that had the front three home in the 2011 Supreme run in the following year's Champion Hurdle then Al Ferof wouldn't have seen which way Sprinter or Spirit Son went.
My point is that in Buveur D'air finishing third in what is looking like a comparable version of the Supreme, he lost little in defeat, especially considering he looked like he had plenty of improvement to come. Whereas Faugheen is coming back off an injury, will be 10 and aside from the 11 year old Fly, in Buveur D'air will be facing the best horse he's yet to come up against. Not ideal.
But my point is; he didn't produce when faced with top class opposition (could be inexperience, or maybe just wasn't up to it). Fair enough,He did in the CH, but only against 2 who had already given their all.
Just my opinion, but it's BDA who has a mountain to climb, rather than Faugheen.
swedish chef
At the Start
If they both turned up in top form it will be a photo-finish - BDA to win by a head.
Here is my answer to this, a topic which was given a lot of attention in last hears Champion Hurdle build up. There are, in my opinion, a number of reasons why BD finished 3rd in the Supreme Novices Hurdle.
Firstly, unlike his stablemate Altior who had 4, and similarly last year when River Wylde had 4 runs, BD had only 2 hurdle prep races before the Supreme Novices Hurdle. This is totally against the Henderson mould of preparing novices but here it couldn’t be helped. Buveur D’Air had met with a couple of niggly setbacks early in the season which delayed his seasonal reappearance until 27 November and again he met with more trouble after that Newbury reappearance, maiden hurdle win which kept him off the track until late January when he reappeared at Huntingdon, 2 full months later. So his stablemate had twice the preparation going into the Supreme racking up a nice sequence and gaining invaluable experience. Indeed I recall a quote from Henderson before the Supreme saying he wished he could’ve got another month into Buveur D’Air before the race!
Secondly, when they first arrived it is widely known that BD was thought to be the better of the two between himself & Altior, a thought confirmed by BD finishing ahead of Altior in a Newbury bumper won by Barters Hill at Newbury in Feb 2015. By the time the Supreme came around the following year the stable view was that Altior had surpassed BD now probably owing to his trouble free passage and having physically improved in leaps and bounds too. This was confirmed by their official ratings at the time.
Thirdly, recognising this Fehily, probably on the advise of Henderson, rode Buveur D’Air completely differently than he did in his previous outings by anchoring him dead last of the Supreme field. At the time I was angry about this and thought it was a poor ride but in hindsight, knowing how good Altior was and the interrupted prep Buveur D’Air had, they were riding him to place with a view to winning the Aintree Grade 1 Novice 3 weeks later.
On top of that, the post below which dates back to last years Champion Hurdle thread, cleary shows Buveur D’Air ran an exceptional race to finish 3rd and if he had got luck in running (see photos below with Supasunday) would’ve beaten Min into second and got nearer to Altior.
You're forgetting how much petrol Buveur D'air used to get in that position tho Archie. It was more 3 or 4L than 2L coming down to the second last but it was nothing about not being able to kick, Supasunday literally came back on top of him as they turned in so he was forced around him turning in!! Fehily had gone for a gap but it closed. Being forced wide cost him another couple of lengths.
The best way to demonstrate what I'm talking about is with a series of freeze frames from the race itself. I'm of the opinion that BD was not only given a poor ride but he also met with trouble at the business end. He probably wouldn't have beaten Altior but he would have beaten Min and cut into the 7L winning distance. Of that I'm sure.
Min was second right the way around about a length off the leader Charbel where as BD was dead last passing the stands about 10L off.
For some unknown reason Fehily decided to anchor him out the back!! At the 4th hurdle BD was 12 of 14, still out the back. Charbel still lead at this stage, min was second tracking closely followed by Supasunday. Petit Mouchouir was fourth and Altior 5th! Fehily still held onto Buveur at the tail.
Approaching the sixth hurdle freewheeling down the hill Buveur D'air had moved into 10th while Altior & Min now held 2nd and 3rd place, a length off. Prime position. By the second last hurdle Buveur last he had taken 8th just behind PM 4L off the leaders. He had now made up 6 places from the start.
Rounding the home turn as Altior & Min kicked BD had taken 5th place. Fehily went to follow Min and scrape paint around the inside but was forced wide around Supasunday after he fell back on top of him and with PM still on inside of him that gap was closed.
He was now forced wide off the bend so had now gone from being one off the rail on the inside to 3 wide on the outside losing more ground.
He Passed Supasunday & Charbel in the straight.Turning in he was 4L behind Min who kept on the inside rounding the bend. At the line he was a length behind him having used far more petrol to get in a position to challenge and forced wide off the home bend.
I think it was a super run by a horse given too much to do who also met with trouble at the business end. Thinking back previous supreme winners, not many have come from last to front. They were always prominent or very handy. Also Archie I think the kick of acceleration your talking about was very much evident at Aintree last year when Fehily hit him a few cracks after the last. Himself & Petit Mouchouir pulled well clear of a very decent mare.
Moving on a year he clearly shows improvement to put 7 and a half lengths between himself and Petit Mouchoir in a champion hurdle. He had 4 and a half lengths between himself and MTOY in second. When you think that MTOY had been second to Annie Power in the previous CH, giving her 7lbs on his first start in 2 years in the fastest ever run champion hurdle! For BD to beat him by the same distance as AP off equal weights but this time with MTOY completely match fit is a performance ranked much much higher than a lot of you are giving BD credit for. MTOY Cheltenham record is right up there. In the 2016 champion hurdle he beat Nichols Canyon into second, a horse who was the only one ever to lower the colours of the mighty Faugheen just 4 months earlier.
Buveur D’Air has no mountain to climb Reet Hard. He’s reached the summit. He is the Champion Hurdler.
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Grasshopper
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Not this lark again! :lol:
BDA is no more than 3L (four maximum) behind Altior after jumping two out. Altior goes away from him up the hill. BDA is a hold-up performer - something you wholly-concede throughout this year's thread - and he ran his race. There are/were no excuses.
As for luck in-running, Min propped at one hurdle, and finished the race with an injury. Again, there are/were no excuses.
Clearly, BDA has improved since then, as you would expect a novice to do, but trying to retrofit reasons for his defeat in the Supreme based on this analysis, is simply not sustainable, in my view.
BDA is no more than 3L (four maximum) behind Altior after jumping two out. Altior goes away from him up the hill. BDA is a hold-up performer - something you wholly-concede throughout this year's thread - and he ran his race. There are/were no excuses.
As for luck in-running, Min propped at one hurdle, and finished the race with an injury. Again, there are/were no excuses.
Clearly, BDA has improved since then, as you would expect a novice to do, but trying to retrofit reasons for his defeat in the Supreme based on this analysis, is simply not sustainable, in my view.
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That’s where opinions differ Grass. You accept yours is valid and I except mine is. For example I don’t believe attempting to put a number of BD at Newcastle is valid either. Some will argue you have to.
It’s just all opinions.
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It’s just all opinions.
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Grasshopper
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Amen.
Desert Orchid
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My number for BDA for Newcastle is 148++
In other words, he still has four legs.
The only other thing to consider is how much weight to give to Barry Geraghty's assertion that he feels as though he's improved again.
Strange, though, how we can easily dismiss the form as meaningless whereas when Istabraq was doing it to donkeys people were gushing about it. Likewise Faugheen against non-triers.
Yes DO. Or making Annie Power a superstar for beating MTOY getting weight, but when BD beats him similarly drawing comparisons to a more competitive champion hurdle in 2016 as others would classify it, you get “ah it’s just MTOY”!!
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Grasshopper
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More or less bang-on what I would have given him, DO (149 with previously mentioned boatload of ++'s, FWIW).
I think you're being a little unfair to Istabraq though. Whilst he sometimes beat poor horses, he wasn't afforded high-ratings for it, and when he did meet good ones, he generally despatched them with similar authority. Certainly Moscow Flyer, Limestone Lad, and French Holly were all vastly superior animals to Irving or Flying Tiger.
I think you're being a little unfair to Istabraq though. Whilst he sometimes beat poor horses, he wasn't afforded high-ratings for it, and when he did meet good ones, he generally despatched them with similar authority. Certainly Moscow Flyer, Limestone Lad, and French Holly were all vastly superior animals to Irving or Flying Tiger.
Grasshopper
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Once again, MTOY had been off the track for 2 years when facing Annie Power, and was a 10yo by the time he met BDA.
Desert Orchid
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Don't get me wrong, GH.
I was as big a fan of Istabraq as anyone but I wasn't blind to the mediocrity of some of his opponents and I didn't think some of the gushing about his wins in uncompetitive affairs was justified. As you say, he could also dismiss quality opponents with the same disdain.
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Grasshopper
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As you wish, KA.
I just don't think you need to build these straw-man arguments to justify BDA's level.
I’m not doing it to justify his level Grass, I don’t need to do that. I’m confident I know exactly where that’s at is in my own head.
This is a discussion forum where some have argued that BD has not performed against top class opposition and when he did it was as a results of others “having given their all” at that stage of the race. That’s generally what you do in Champion hurdle I would’ve thought, give your all. If there’s a better horse so be it.
My referencing tent & TNO was in direct response to the above claim to demonstrate that, in my opinion, he has run in top class company directly through, and with other form lines associated with those two horses and coped more than admirably. That’s why officialy he’s a few pounds shy of Faugheen after a handful of hurdle races in open company.
There are very few ways to try and guage what’ll happen in March apart from having opinions. Both My Tent & TNO gives us clues if you care to interpret it like that, as they’ve been present in the last number of Champion Hurdles and are yardsticks. Some will, some wont.
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This is a discussion forum where some have argued that BD has not performed against top class opposition and when he did it was as a results of others “having given their all” at that stage of the race. That’s generally what you do in Champion hurdle I would’ve thought, give your all. If there’s a better horse so be it.
My referencing tent & TNO was in direct response to the above claim to demonstrate that, in my opinion, he has run in top class company directly through, and with other form lines associated with those two horses and coped more than admirably. That’s why officialy he’s a few pounds shy of Faugheen after a handful of hurdle races in open company.
There are very few ways to try and guage what’ll happen in March apart from having opinions. Both My Tent & TNO gives us clues if you care to interpret it like that, as they’ve been present in the last number of Champion Hurdles and are yardsticks. Some will, some wont.
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Grasshopper
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To be fair, you were inferring that MTOY returning from two years off against Annie Power, was the same horse running at the same level as the race-fit, but year older, MTOY beaten by Buveur D'Air. That's what I take issue with. It's just not a valid comparison, imo.
None of it is relevant to BDA's chance this year though.
None of it is relevant to BDA's chance this year though.
And there’s that word again opinion. You’re perfectly entitled to it and while I respect it I don’t agree with it.
I’m sure you wont agree but you could easily argue that a fit 10yo MTOY was in a much better place than a very fresh, coming back from injury, 9yo MTOY with no prep allowing for the history of tent pulling the arms off his jockey.
We agree here somewhat. I used it as an example to show he has raced last year against consistently very good yardsticks which others here were knocking.
The Champion Hurdle of 2017, early and all as it is to be discussing it, has worked out very well form wise. A lot better than many were giving it credit for.
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Grasshopper
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Dangerous to draw a line between hurdling and chasing form, imo.
As you say - some differences of opinion, except where it comes to BDA's level, which is all that really matters.
More so with Wicklow Brave winning the Punchestown Champion hurdle beating tent & Artic Fire, a formline which upholds the champion hurdle form and more with the latter and also The New Ones good consistent form this season in handicaps.
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archie
Senior Jockey
The objective (?) atr formscan is mediocre but I'm not sure that objectivity has much of a place on this thread.