The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

Who will win the 2018 CH

  • Buveur D'Air

    Votes: 17 54.8%

  • Faugheen

    Votes: 10 32.3%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 12.9%
  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
This is a highly entertaining to and fro. Please continue…


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Grasshopper said:
Charli Parcs my hole - much as it pains me to say it, last year’s juveniles have been exposed as useless.
Elgin my hole - too hard a race today
Identity Thief my hole - humped in Ireland today and basically a goner.
Wicklow Brave wont even run

So I’ll get 13/2 or thereabouts to knock-out one of Faugheen, Melon or MTOY? I’m more than happy to take my chances, in that case.
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That's because you have no idea just how far ahead even Melon is to your fella.

BTW Tiggers the horse has been put in the betting and would have a chance of a place if he does run

Charli Parcs unlike Defi is improving all the time and ran a stormer in the Betfair Hurdle despite absolutely hating the ground. The only question now that Call Me Lord failed miserably will he switch him to the County?

Identity Thief ran his best race is ages and is being aimed at another crack at the Champion Hurdle and yesterday should put him spot on.

I'd say he's far from gone and on his best form has about 4 lbs in hand of JC and has more right to be in the race than a handicapper like him

Wicklow Brave....your balls he won't run.he has been laid out for this and is currently working as good as ever. Don't you ever read anything outside of the form book?:p

Wicklow Brave 25/1 John Cuntable 80/1 and you say the Williams horse will run? and he wont!!!!

Go to the back of the class with the dynamic duo and study some more but this time try and come up with something that's at least realistic........


I would like to dedicate this post to Bear:lol:
 
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Desperate stuff.

Melon: beaten 12L in ICH by a Stayers Hurdle entrant
Identity Thief: 3-from-13 over hurdles, never finished closer than 6th since returning to smaller obstacles until yesterday, where he was comfortably beaten by a horse rated 151.
Charli Parcs: beaten in handicaps of marks of 145, 146 and 145 this season, but apparently improving all the time
Wicklow Brave: no hurdles runs since last CH where he was beaten 15L.

I can do this all day long.

Suggest you stick to what you’re good at: tipping the Henderson/McManus horse for no good reason, and reminiscing about the old days when Jonjo was a decent jockey, instead of a thoroughly-fu*cking-useless trainer.

I also dedicate this post to TheBear. :lol:
 
Not to dare get in the middle of this duel between yourself and Tanlic, Nick, but I think it's worth noting that Wicklow Brave gave them a head start in the Cheltenham champion hurdle last year and he went on to win the Punchestown champion hurdle a month later.

Of all the horses people have been naming above, he is one I give a chance of filling the places. Granted an outside chance.
 
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Double Handful said:
Not to dare get in the middle of this duel between yourself and Tanlic, Nick, but I think it's worth noting that Wicklow Brave gave them a head start in the Cheltenham champion hurdle last year and he went on to win the Punchestown champion hurdle a month later.

Of all the horses people have been naming above, he is one I give a chance of filling the places. Granted an outside chance.
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There are three places to fill in the market I’ve played in, Shane.

As well as all the others mentioned, it’s still legit to have concerns about Faugheen, and MTOY is now an 11yo. The market outside the fave is a crap-shoot any way I look at it, and I don’t think you can discount many of them - hence my “value bet” at 25/1 about JC. It seems to be lost on some people that I’m not advocating him to win, or even be second - only that 6/1 to finish top-four strikes me as a fair enough price.

The handbags with Tanlic started because - in his customary “open gob, think later” style - he a) he completely failed to understand this simple point, and b) he completely dismissed JC as a no-hoper, despite the formbook confirming it is anything but the case.

I didn’t select JC in this market on a whim, but if anyone else wants to put forward an alternative, I’m open to suggestion.

Ecit: FWIW, John Constable is currently 18.5 on Betfair in the 'Without BDA' market.
 
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I wouldn't rule out Wicklow Brave either but he's been kept off the radar, probably very deliberately.

Trying to snaffle some each-way value early on others, like John Constable, was just that: taking something at a price I believed to be too long at the time. There's no way he was off an inch the last twice, which lent some encouragement, yet he's still a pretty big price for one of his ability.

As someone pointed out before, the CH has a habit of throwing up big-priced placed horses. Sea Pigeon and Night Nurse were among my favourite horses but Easterby also got Past Master to place at long odds back then.
 
Elgin to be supplemented. There’s another to throw in the mix.


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I am accused of opening my gob and thinking later........I study facts before I post and wish some would do the same instead of just throwing snide remarks around

Grassy wtf is that crap 18.5 JC on Betfair? That is his exchange price an exchange that if you bet on and the horse does not run you loses your money and if he wins you pay commission.

On The Betfair Sportsbook you can have 21 nrnb no commission and on Bet 265 you can have 34....seems like your the one who opens his gob and doesn't think.

Whatsmore between You JC Do Cliffs of Dover and Danny CML putting up horses that need to defy gravity to get placed is nonsense and shows a huge lack of understanding of what it takes to be placed in a CH

There approx prices have been between 50 and 80

Can I ask you guys when is the last time a 50/1 shot was placed in a Champion Hurdle.........4 places not 3..........Captain Cee Bee was 5th Khyber King was 5th or 6th.

The closest was a real good group horse Thousand Stars not a 2 bit handicapper who went off at 33/1 and finished 4th but without the fav 9/1......a 20 quid stake on him cost 40 pounds = 25 quid profit.....lot more profitable way than waiting 10 years to pull that one off at 40 quid a year 400 quid to win 25 quid by fook that's smart :lol:
 
I suggest you actually log onto B365 and check the real price they are offering, rather than simply accept what Oddschecker tells you they are offering.

Perhaps this is more evidence of the Open-Gob/Think-Later approach I was referring to earlier?

Cliffs of Dover and Call Me Lord clearly have nothing like the credentials that John Constable has for the race. There is ample evidence for this from both JC's Bula run and his Contenders run. Only a fool would lump him in the same bracket as the other pair, who were/are much less proven.

If you want to start quoting historical precedent to rubbish the bet, please tell me that last time the Champion Hurdle had a 1/2 favourite, and it was 7/1 the Field thereafter? Wake me up when you come up with an answer, and I'll reply just as soon as I've shaved my foot-long beard off.
 
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Istabraq was 8/15 fav next best was about 8/1......next question

There's a want with you if you think JC finishing 2nd to Buvi when Barry was taking the **** means anything you really have lost the plot
 
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Figured you would go there, but I was prepared. ;)

That would the the year the 25/1 shot Ashley Park finished 4th......with three horses ahead of him in the betting, finishing in his wake

The year before that, Istabraq was a 4/9 shot (11/2 bar), and the 100/1 chance Mister Morose finished 4th..........with no less than ten horses ahead of him in the betting, finishing in his wake.

The year before that, Istabraq was again a 8/15 chance, but only faced five runners, so the bet would not have been live.

Maybe if you had used Mister Morose as your example, rather Thousand Stars, your numbers might have been more appealing, but it's not really on to expect you to do that much research, is it?


Clearly, I don't take the value of the Contenders form literally. That you think I do, suggests to me you haven't paid the slightest bit of attention to anything I've said - you've just projected your own meaning onto it, which isn't anything I can account for.

PS. Let me know if B365 eventually go your mythical 33/1, because I'd be looking to top-up at that price. ;)
 
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All yer shite doesn't change the facts that very few loud ones get placed and it's a mugs bet betting them in the chance they might fill one place and you have picked the right one.

Do the sums and you will lose in the long run BIG TIME wtf do you think bookies offer these stupid bets? They got you sussed pal....but hey Good luck with John C but you will lose......I dutched Buvi and Faugheen away back and I will win :lol:
 
I should add I had to look up Mr Morose.......1999???.................20 friggin years ago since a horse over 50/1 got into the first 4...where's the profit in that?

Kirriemuir and Beach Road won the race at 50/1 2 in 100 years if you lived that long you.d break even backing them :lol:

John Constable...........should stick to painting
 
TheBear said:
Elgin to be supplemented. There’s another to throw in the mix.
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I suppose if Elite have the money to do so it's their prerogative but I wouldn't touch Elgin with a barge pole in the CH.

Yesterday's race had the potential to throw up a very iffy result and did just that. The only form line that makes sense at the moment is that he beat Flying Tiger 7lbs, one better than the six he had on RPRs and my own figures and one less than on ORs. Call Me Lord maybe went too soon in pursuit of COD and Ch'Tibello appears to have run below form by some way for some reason.
 
Tanlic said:
I should add I had to look up Mr Morose.......1999???.................20 friggin years ago since a horse over 50/1 got into the first 4...where's the profit in that?

Kirriemuir and Beach Road won the race at 50/1 2 in 100 years if you lived that long you.d break even backing them :lol:

John Constable...........should stick to painting
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If you could back a 25/1 winner every 19 races, you would take it in a heart-beat......and if you didn't, you would be a muppet.

Look, there's absolutely no point in taking on the favourite, unless you think Faugheen will make a Lazarus-style come-back, and I absolutely don't believe that's going to happen. Which leaves a choice of backing the 2's-on chance (not my style), swerving the race altogether (not my style either, insofar as a CH is concerned), or betting in the Without market.

I fail to see how this is a muggy market at all, given that it's a completely new race which BDA takes no part in, and is priced accordingly. It is essentially no different to how the market would look, if BDA stepped on a stone next week, and was forced to miss Cheltenham. All I'm doing is taking a view; same as I would do in any other race, and I think there are holes in pretty-much every runner, including the shorties.
 
I wasn't worried about him after the ICH.

Last year's juvenile form has taken a pasting at every turn. It's for this reason that I have no concerns about Charli Parcs either.
 
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