The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

Who will win the 2018 CH

  • Buveur D'Air

    Votes: 17 54.8%

  • Faugheen

    Votes: 10 32.3%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 12.9%
  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
Danny said:
Elgin put up to 161
Ch'tibello down 2lb to 154
Call Me lord remains unchanged on 152.
Flying Tiger appears to have been left on 140 ???????????? Surely they've forgot to update the rating.

That would make him a stone better off with Call Me Lord for 0.5 lengths and 19lb better off with Elgin for 5L should they meet in a handicap.

I don't know how you can take the form literally but then completely excuse one horse from it.


33/1 NRNB for the County. Looks like another chunky bet to line up along side Mohaayed. Having won the Fred winter last year and being left on his mark after that race on Saturday can't see how this doesn't shorten up dramatically if this is the target.
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12/1 now 10's in places and with the Favourite Max Dynamite looking less likely to run he could well be favourite on the day. I expected him to shorten but not quite to this extent, If Elgin were to run well in the Champion ( not that I expect him too ) but this could go off silly prices.

All that said, he'll still get smashed by Mo'.

Chesterfield has been backed off the boards this week following a nice little win on the All weather. He wouldn't want it too soft IMO but it might of dried by then 6lb better off with Mo who danced past him at Christmas with consummate ease won't be enough.
 
For F*cks sake!!!! Chesterfield now 16/1. I Have notes in my H'Cap file from only 6 or 7 days ago that read as follows:

"Chesterfield - Keep an eye for County hudle. 40/1. Needs better ground"

Took my eye off the ball here big time as haven't backed him yet and went totally unbeknownst to me that he had that jog Round the all weather.

I absolutely loathe missing a massive price [emoji36]
 
Double Handful said:
For F*cks sake!!!! Chesterfield now 16/1. I Have notes in my H'Cap file from only 6 or 7 days ago that read as follows:

"Chesterfield - Keep an eye for County hudle. 40/1. Needs better ground"

Took my eye off the ball here big time as haven't backed him yet and went totally unbeknownst to me that he had that jog Round the all weather.

I absolutely loathe missing a massive price [emoji36]
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I can sort of beat that mate. I thought I'd have a little saver on him when I was bored at work one night I thought seen as he was 6lb better off with Mo and given the price plus the ground factor and the price I stuck a £14 win 40/1 boosted to 50's. Happy with that. I was going through my bets again totting up and noticed that I had no £14 single on Chesterfield but instead had one on Gwafa...never heard of him haha. Must have been right next to him in the betting or something. I've heard stories of people placing bets by mistake but have to admit its the first time I've done it online. Years ago in the shops I once wrote the wrong number of a horse but never had the problem before online.

Fear not though DH the more progressive Mohaayed has his number anyway !

When reading a lot of your thoughts Shane I tend to agree with most of them. It seems as though we operate on the same sort of wavelength. You have my sincerest condolences.
 
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Double Handful said:
For F*cks sake!!!! Chesterfield now 16/1. I Have notes in my H'Cap file from only 6 or 7 days ago that read as follows:

"Chesterfield - Keep an eye for County hudle. 40/1. Needs better ground"

Took my eye off the ball here big time as haven't backed him yet and went totally unbeknownst to me that he had that jog Round the all weather.

I absolutely loathe missing a massive price [emoji36]
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Blame Rory - haven't seen him post on here for a while though. He tipped him up in the TFF podcast last Friday.
 
The immediate reaction or over reaction depending on how you see it he was cut immediately to 20's after impressively scooting past Zubayr at Kempton. I don't think Rory is to blame.
 
They have to be on a wind up surely ? Unless Faugheen or Melon is not coming over.

The most bizarre decision ever.

Unless of course they are sending Faugheen to win and the others to box in Buveur D'air.

As John Gosden once said "All weather tactics".
 
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Just checked the exchanges and some bizzare differences between the CH outright and the CH w/o BD market.

Yorkhill 11's w/o and 14's OR
Wicklow 8's w/o and 26's OR

Ridiculous scenes !
 
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Even more strange is Faugheen out to 7/2 without BD and not one single bet left in the lay column.

Brace yourselves.
 
What exchange are you using.......Yorkhill is 8 on the machine..................If the Faugheen was known to be a non runner there surely there would be all sorts trying to lay him...right now there's 22 quid at 6/1 no one is rushing to take

Faugheen worked well on Thursday so unless something has gone terribly wrong he should run...........what have they got to lose at his age?

The market is changing because Yorkhill is more or less certain to run and Ruby might ride
 
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I know it's the Champion Hurdle and there is only one but if Williams runs John Constable he should be shot as should Nicky Henderson if he runs Charli parcs neither of who will go a yard in heavy ground which seems inevitable
 
Tanlic said:
What exchange are you using.......Yorkhill is 8 on the machine..................If the Faugheen was known to be a non runner there surely there would be all sorts trying to lay him...right now there's 22 quid at 6/1 no one is rushing to take

Faugheen worked well on Thursday so unless something has gone terribly wrong he should run...........what have they got to lose at his age?

The market is changing because Yorkhill is more or less certain to run and Ruby might ride
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Yorkhill
11.5 £17.00 £178.50
Ref: 11861852371
Matched: 20:06 09-Mar-18

That's in the without Market Tan and you can see the time matched. Not that I fancy him I've just recently started to accept that I might have to start doing a bit of trading here and there as Accounts start to get closed/ restricted. Just experimenting with small stakes atm as it is all new to me. Not that I'm new to Betfair as I've used to for a long time but mainly just to back hapless yaks at 3 figure prices.

Re-Faugheen you would probably know more about using the market as a guide than I would as said I'm new to this sort of thing. However up until recently Melon was weak and Yorkhill as well as a few others in the without marke, Faugheen drifts to 7/2 (with at the time nothing in the lay column) the rest of the Mullins runners (not just Yorkhill) tighten up. I just thought it looked suspicious but maybe these small fluctuations are normal.

Its a learning process for me at this stage. Its not something I like doing but everyone has to adapt if they want to progress.

For the record Melon in the without market is probably my best/largest bet now in the race and believe it or not I would rather Faugheen actually runs as it should ensure a decent pace. Nobody wants a muddling affair.
 
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Forget all that inside/outside Yorkhill, jockeys should take care of it otherwise they shouldn't be riding at big events.

To the latest theory on Faugheen, it seems that just like in Morgiana 2015 when the racecourse gallop was too close to the official race and Faugheen went too good destroying Nichols Canyon but then fell victim to him later in the week. Ruby learned the lesson but Townend didn't so Faugheen was basically having 2 races in space of a week but back then there was NC to compare with, now they taken the view he's too old even though in Morgiana 2017 he had returned pretty close to his old self on form/time etc.(Ruby rode him in the racecourse gallop, but was injured just a day before riding in the Morgiana)

With Ruby giving him the prep race last week there's hope everything is back to normal and Faugheen hasn't left his race behind like it seems to have done the last 2 racecourse gallops with Paul Townend.
 
If anyone can get him fit enough it's the pointy nosed Leprechaun but Buveur D'air is different gravy from Arctic Fire and even at his best he might have been pushed


Those that were expecting 8 runners and to pick up easy money backing horses at huge prices look to be in trouble....best outsider looks to be???? none of them
 
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