The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

Who will win the 2018 CH

  • Buveur D'Air

    Votes: 17 54.8%

  • Faugheen

    Votes: 10 32.3%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 12.9%
  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
archie said:
Funny how those showing most outrage are the big BDA fans. Sublimating deep insecurity?
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Much as i think BDA is a cert, I am long since passed outrage when it comes to Mullins and his stated target's for his horses. If I am sublimating anything, it is a deep scepticism for whatever he says prior to declarations, having gone through the agony of the Vautour Gold Cup saga.

With you having horses in training with him, perhaps you're too close to Mullins to view him in a properly objectively fashion? Given his previous, it is entirely legit to question where he says his horses are going, and it's even more legit when he mentions two different targets for Yorkhill, out of either side of his mouth in the same sentence. Listening to him this far from a race is an exercise in pointlessness.
 
I can guarantee you that he always says the truth as he sees it on the day that a question is asked. Any owner with him knows that he makes up his mind at the last minute based on the latest gallops information and I for one wouldn't have it any other way. I was on Vautour for the Gold Cup a couple of years ago and just about got my stake back in the Ryanair.
The fact is that with him it's late choices and anyone who is still complaining about Mullins Bingo clearly has the memory of a goldfish. With Henderson and green/gold it's something else.
 
All of which I happen to agree with, and all of which makes it entirely legit to question everything he says before declaration time.

That being the case, why the attempt to paint it as subliminal insecurity?

None of this absolves Henderson for the Binocular debacle, btw. Or indeed Tom Taaffe from the Kicking King debacle.
 
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The investigation into the half a million euro bets on Yorkhill & Melon to lose at Leopardstown recently is still fresh in the memory archie! It wasn’t me or you laying those horses.

Yorkhill would be schooling over hurdles now as he hasn’t seen one in nearly 2 years. Last year Buveur D’Air got brought back from a chasing career. Nicky Henderson put out a statement in late January stating as much. Simple really and everyone knew. It wasn’t a case of ya we’re bringing him back for the Champion Hurdle but he could still run in the JLT.


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Kauto Abu said:
The investigation into the half a million euro bets on Yorkhill & Melon to lose at Leopardstown recently is still fresh in the memory archie! It wasn’t me or you laying those horses.
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And a marked lack of any further action on that front. Suggest you get back to me when he's charged with doping the Queen's horses.
 
I can’t because he doesn’t train any for her. I believe she likes to have a clear idea where her horses will run. [emoji14]

She still seems very angry about it tho. Order of the guard was it?


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Grasshopper said:
Much as i think BDA is a cert, I am long since passed outrage when it comes to Mullins and his stated target's for his horses. If I am sublimating anything, it is a deep scepticism for whatever he says prior to declarations, having gone through the agony of the Vautour Gold Cup saga.

With you having horses in training with him, perhaps you're too close to Mullins to view him in a properly objectively fashion? Given his previous, it is entirely legit to question where he says his horses are going, and it's even more legit when he mentions two different targets for Yorkhill, out of either side of his mouth in the same sentence. Listening to him this far from a race is an exercise in pointlessness.
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Spot on Grasshopper, much that I respect Archies posts I do believe he's looking at this through 'closhutton tinted spectacles'.
 
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Just a thought but, does it shape Mullins decisions [also other Irish trainers as well] in that he brings his horses over prior to the festival and can't just drive them over on the day.
 
I think it's true that the utterances of Willy Mullins about plans for his horses need to be treated with caution. I also think the same goes for most other trainers.

The frustration expressed by some on here has a lot to do with losses in the ante post market due to mistaken assumptions about where horses will run. The expansion of the Festival programme, the concentration of most of the best horses in just a few yards and the unwillingness of corporate bookmakers to take a risk has turned ante post betting into an entirely unattractive proposition. On the one hand trainers have greater choice about which races to go for but on the other hand they are trying to avoid clashes between stable mates. If one horse gets injured the whole portfolio of entries gets rearranged.

It would be pointless to ask a football manager what his line-up for a match six months hence will be and the same applies to the bigger stables. I believe Archie when he says WPM is giving straight answers when asked about plans but circumstances change all the time and he has a perfect right to modify his plans accordingly.
 
It may be Closutton tinted spectacles but I pay him a good sum every month because I trust him to do the best by all his owners and horses. If I'm touchy on the subject it's because I resent the implication that I'm foolish to trust him. Given that, in two and a half years, he has given me 45 runners, 19 winners, 8 seconds and 3 thirds plus increasing Airlie Beach's value by over £100k, I'd say I've had a fair deal.

He gets asked many questions every day and he always answers with the truth as it is at that moment in time. It's his genius that he is flexible enough to change his mind based on what the horses are 'telling' him on the gallops and getting them in the right races.

He is not responsible for what his owners say.

I'm not over-happy with Ruby's PP connection but then I don't really approve of the bookmaker links to Gordon, Nicky and Jessie.
 
There have been dubious betting patterns in recent weeks concerning some of their runners. Willy correctly says that no finger has been pointed at him personally, but the fact several stable runners prominent in the betting for the DRF were laid for very big sums and ran like pigs is something he should be taking very seriously. Their biggest owner heads up a betting firm and is presumably concerned that such activity might harm his own reputation.
 
I barely pay any attention to anything he says but I genuinely don't think he's ever been out to mislead the public.

He's been the number one trainer for a while with a plethora of top horses in his care. He's obviously therefore going to be regularly asked as to their well-being and inevitably those questions will involve "what are the future plans?", which in the current Cheltenham obsessed era translate to "what race will they line-up in at Cheltenham?"

He can either say "I've no idea; it's Galway in August FFS" or throw out a few thoughts. He's typically cagey in the early months for obvious reasons but then as the season progresses he's no choice really, with a microphone thrust under his noise every week, to offer some plans.

The fact is he's probably far from certain himself and has other horses to consider who may have upcoming trials/engagements to take up first. The same deliberation must go on in every stable in the isles without the same media frenzy and yet because he's so successful and happy to talk to the press his quotes are going to come under more scrutiny than those of others. The social media climate nowadays only makes things worse.

Elliott seems to handle it very well but let's just hope he continues to do so when he's had it for as long as Willie has.
 
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Grey said:
I think it's true that the utterances of Willy Mullins about plans for his horses need to be treated with caution. I also think the same goes for most other trainers.
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Agree with this.

The frustration expressed by some on here has a lot to do with losses in the ante post market due to mistaken assumptions about where horses will run.
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Don't agree with this. My frustration isn't borne from money lost - it's borne from opportunity lost; namely, the chance to run Vautour in the Gold Cup. More generally, the recent examples of WPM writing-off horses for the season, only for them to make seemingly Lazarus-like comebacks, is as exasperating as it is frustrating. It's not just ante-post money lost on Mullins runners changing targets that is the issue. Bear in mind that people will back horses from other yards, in the expectation that the Mullins runner doesn't go, and will find themselves in a poorer position, when Mullins has a change of heart. Anyone who backed a horse in the 2016 Ryanair on thew assumption that it was "Gold Cup or stay home" (appreciate that was Ricci), can feel rightly aggrieved, because as soon as Vautour was declared, they knew instantly that they were fu*cked.

The expansion of the Festival programme, the concentration of most of the best horses in just a few yards and the unwillingness of corporate bookmakers to take a risk has turned ante post betting into an entirely unattractive proposition. On the one hand trainers have greater choice about which races to go for but on the other hand they are trying to avoid clashes between stable mates. If one horse gets injured the whole portfolio of entries gets rearranged.

It would be pointless to ask a football manager what his line-up for a match six months hence will be and the same applies to the bigger stables. I believe Archie when he says WPM is giving straight answers when asked about plans but circumstances change all the time and he has a perfect right to modify his plans accordingly.
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Agree with all of the above, and to be fair to WPM, about 95% of his updates are suitably non-commital. It's the other 5% that are the worry......for those that pay them any heed.
 
Some interesting points on both sides.

Firstly the dubious betting patterns involving Melon and Yorkhill I'm not sure they are that dubious. As I understand it Melon was acting up very badly in the prelim's and it wouldn't be unusual for a horse to drift quite badly late on after such antics. Yorkhill I'd imagine there would have been plenty of reason to be laying at short prices anyway returning to 2 miles, his waywardness at fences and his poor show over Christmas so I wouldn't be surprised he's one the layers would get stuck into quite frankly I thought the price on the day was ridiculous as much as the quotes for him in the Champion hurdle are now.

I can't have Grey's football team analogy of the situation at all. Surely with a horse there has to be some sort of rationale solid plan that's based around what the horse has achieved. I do agree though that it applies to most trainers and Mullins is just more in the spotlight. The case of Yorkhill has been extreme even by Mullins standards. Having Won the JLT its not really that far out the box to think we'll try him over 3 miles as possibly he could be a Gold Cup horse. The horse obviously flopped over Christmas but ran well enough for a long way. I personally was surprised at how immediately they shelved the Gold Cup plan, after all it was the horses first run of the season and some other Mullins horses ran poorly. Mullins has made similar comments himself saying perhaps we made the decision to drop back in trip too quickly as it was his first run. The problem being he utters that sentence right next to the sentence that says the horse is 60/40 to go the Champion Hurdle ? I'm also not sure about the consistency with which he pulls his fractions out of the air because whilst Yorkhill is 60/40, Douvan is better than 50/50 ? Is that 60/40 or 59/41 or 51/49 or 99/1 who knows ? To me if you were looking at it as a fantasy owner and Yorkhill was yours what would you say ? I'd say common sense dictates that if you were to have a realistic target over fences at this point in time it would have to be the Ryan Air. If you believe the horse no longer has a place over fences because of the way he jumps and you were along the lines of thinking that maybe you'd took the decision to come back in trip too soon then a tilt at the Stayers hurdle would make sense.

I haven't done any dough on Mullins horses and wouldn't bet them ante-post well not any serious sort of bet without NRNB protection so I have the freedom not to be talking from my pocket. Despite Mullins saying Yorkhill is 60/40 for the Champion Hurdle I personally think he's a million to turn up there. I wouldn't mind if he did as on all known form he'd struggle to be involved even though the race does look a poor renewal strength in depth wise and for me the hype that surrounds him would just adds value into the market.

Just another couple of examples as I'm not really Mullins bashing. Dan Skelton was quoted the other week as saying he was favouring skipping the Kingwell and going straight to the Champion with a full tank..reffering to Ch'tibello. Reason being he didn't want the horse having a hard race in the mud before the big one. That to me sounds perfectly logical less than 2 weeks later he runs Ch'tibello in the mud at Wincanton. What sort of plan is that ?

Colin Tizzard has been awful as well this season and you can take your pick on things he's done and said. Archie has no need to convince me on the Henderson Mob either as I hold the opinion he's amongst the most bent, corrupt people in the game but does it all under the guise of a silly old fool.

I don't really take it all that seriously and see it as just the fun and games of the National Hunt season in the same way as when the flat comes around we'll have O'Brien telling us "listen, he could be the best we've ever trained". At least it gives us something to talk about whilst being snowed in.

All said, I respect that if Archie is an owner at Mullins yard ( very nice, didn't know that ) and Mullins is master multiple Champion winning trainer then they both probably know a damn site more about it all than I do but like some yob on the terraces singing "you don't know what your doing " to his teams manager, and thinking I'd put myself in the same bracket when I'm posting about horse racing, I wouldn't take anything I say too seriously either haha.
 
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All said, I respect that if Archie is an owner at Mullins yard ( very nice, didn't know that ) and Mullins is master multiple Champion winning trainer then they both probably know a damn site more about it all than I do but like some yob on the terraces singing "you don't know what your doing " to his teams manager, and thinking I'd put myself in the same bracket when I'm posting about horse racing, I wouldn't take anything I say too seriously either haha.
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Sounds like you're prepared to have that football manager analogy after all :cool:
 
Grey said:
Sounds like you're prepared to have that football manager analogy after all :cool:
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Yeah might as well roll with it. Whilst you are correct in saying a football manager can't tell you what team he'd pick in six months time he'd certainly be able to tell you he wasn't going to play Ronaldo in goal.
 
An Capall posted last year how a WPM trained horse he was involved with with an Aintree Grand National target was also entered for every race at Aintree he was eligible to enter from 2 1/2 mile handicap hurdles up.
That is just the way the man works, frustrating and all as it is.
As a boy in 1975 I remember Brown Lad was odds on for RSA Novice Chase but when that race was abandoned he was rerouted to Stayers Hurdle which he won; luckily the entry had been made.
How many folk would have backed Flyingbolt ante post for the 1966 Champion Hurdle , even after he winning the Champion Chase the day before ?
 
The value looks to be in the without Buveur Dair market

Quite like each way [3 places.1/4]

John Constable @ 33-1 [Bet 365]

Not a better bred horse in jump racing, and despite the current weather is at his best in the normal Spring/Summer conditions!
 
Prepare to be disappointed if you think you will get 33/1 at B365. That price is at least a week out-of-date, if it was ever laid at all.
 
Yes, it's 20/1 and they've removed the NRNB concession in that market.

It's 20/1 with it at Sky but I didn't check the place terms.
 
Bloody hell, OC have just put the change of odds into 20-1 which is not quite so appealing!

it is NRNB on B365 though
 
Grasshopper said:
Prepare to be disappointed if you think you will get 33/1 at B365. That price is at least a week out-of-date, if it was ever laid at all.
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Desert Orchid said:
Yes, it's 20/1 and they've removed the NRNB concession in that market.

It's 20/1 with it at Sky but I didn't check the place terms.
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It was certainly laid at 33/1 with 365 Grass I have a tenna e/w at that price. I topped up at 25/1 the night before the contenders hurdle same stake. After the contenders he was cut to 20/1 So that's how far out of date it is.

Des where have you got the impression that they have stopped NRNB on the market ? Still is as far as I can see.

Does anyone know if there is a catch with the Ladbrokes version ? They are labelling it NRMB ( non runner money back ). I got caught out once with something similar as some firm gave it you back as a free bet that had to be used in the same race. Was a few years back but I'm always cautious now about the terms.
 
Danny said:
Des where have you got the impression that they have stopped NRNB on the market ? Still is as far as I can see.
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At oddschecker, when I went into that market the NRNB green tick at the top of the column wasn't there (it was with Sky).
 
It's just occurred to me that this cold snap might be bad news for JC's fans.

When he finally hit form last season it was in the spring and summer and the trainer was quoted as saying he was a spring and summer horse who had thrived with the sun on his back.

To balance that out, his form so far since the autumn hasn't been that far off his peak (at MR) despite clearly only being there for the fresh air.
 
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