The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

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October 21.69%
February 18.10%
November 16.83%
September 16.50%
March 15.56%
July 15.46%
January 14.89%
May 14.53%
December 14.27%
August 14.19%
June 14.14%
April 10.83%
 
When all eyes are on Leopardstown and Limerick over the Xmas Gordon is usually stopping them for the festival handicaps.
 
I took 50/1 yesterday to coffee money just in case a gamble develops.

I've done my initial trawl of the race but obviously the ratings can change if they run between now and March.

CBO - current best odds

[TABLE="width: 412"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]MON[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]CBO[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Epatante[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]9/4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Verdana Blue[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]oe d[/TD]
[TD]100/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Silver Streak[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]? p?[/TD]
[TD]11/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Buveur D'Air[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]o[/TD]
[TD]16/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Sharjah[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]8/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Honeysuckle[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]16/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Song For Someone[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]20/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Call Me Lord[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]o d[/TD]
[TD]100/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Saldier[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]25/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Goshen[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]p +? nov[/TD]
[TD]25/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Abacadabras[/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[TD]nov[/TD]
[TD]20/1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


I've focused for now on those with a mark of 160 or better plus last season's novices who can improve into their second season. Other second-season novices have already improved.

Some of the ratings are based on old form in case they have a revival and the mares have their allowance included.

d - disappointing
nov - 2nd season novice, could improve 10lbs on the rating (if the rating is from last season)

I've backed Buveur D'Air twice at 25/1 (the second time to make up for Aramon not running) as I have him in the low-mid 170s on his best form and I'm happy enough with that.

If I thought I could get 100/1 NRNB Verdana Blue I'd take that too but I suspect they're targeting one of the big festival handicaps or the Ayr 'Champion' (make me laugh...) Hurdle. She doesn't even have a Betfair entry.
 
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James Du Berlais has (I’m sure) been bought as a novice-chaser for next season, and if he’s being touted as a Champion Hurdle horse, it’s as insurance against Mullins’ other candidates disappointing at the DRF.
 
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If by chance Buve ur D'Airshows his old sparkle at Haydock what then? 25/1 has gone so well done to DO he could be single figures next week...I think the only horse that could steel a march on the field is Aspire Tower if he can get first run from 3 out....but beating the fav still looks extremely difficult
 
Grasshopper said:
James Du Berlais has (I’m sure) been bought as a novice-chaser for next season, and if he’s being touted as a Champion Hurdle horse, it’s as insurance against Mullins’ other candidates disappointing at the DRF.
Click to expand...

Here is the quote

The entries are being made for Cheltenham now and James Du Berlais is one we’ve put in the Unibet Champion Hurdle. He looks great and looks strong, he’s very good and I’m very pleased with him. We’ll see how he goes but probably Cheltenham and Punchestown and then back to Auteuil is more likely to happen with him rather than the Dublin Festival.
He’d had a busy enough time in France up to now but he is one that we’re really looking forward to as a novice chaser next season.
Click to expand...
 
One thing that I only thought of now (perhaps this has been discussed already). What impact would amateurs (Patrick Mullins) not being allowed to ride have on the chance of Sharjah?

It's a long time since anyone else rode him over hurdles. Will be interesting to see who is jocked up for the DRF...

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littlelad said:
One thing that I only thought of now (perhaps this has been discussed already). What impact would amateurs (Patrick Mullins) not being allowed to ride have on the chance of Sharjah?

It's a long time since anyone else rode him over hurdles. Will be interesting to see who is jocked up for the DRF...

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Click to expand...

Darragh O’Keefe? Though i suspect all that’ll be sorted by Cheltenham.

Im hoping Nico isn’t on Buveur D’air.

Saint Roi - Mark Walsh
Epatant - Aiden Coleman
Buveur D’air - Can only be Nico. Unless Hendo has another runner in it?
 
Double J said:
Darragh O’Keefe? Though i suspect all that’ll be sorted by Cheltenham.

Im hoping Nico isn’t on Buveur D’air.

Saint Roi - Mark Walsh
Epatant - Aiden Coleman
Buveur D’air - Can only be Nico. Unless Hendo has another runner in it?
Click to expand...
Nico was on him when working the other day and will be on him this weekend if it is on.

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Question for anyone that feels like answering it.

Would you take 14/1 Buveur Dair for the Champion Hurdle right now and why?
 
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Slim said:
Question for anyone that feels like answering it.

Would you take 14/1 Buveur Dair for the Champion Hurdle right now and why?
Click to expand...

No Slim I wouldn't, his last win in the race was 2018, that's just too long ago for me.
If he wins you'd just have to doff your cap and say well done.
 
Slim said:
Question for anyone that feels like answering it.

Would you take 14/1 Buveur Dair for the Champion Hurdle right now and why?
Click to expand...
I'd nearly prefer the 10/1 NRNB.

If he wins tomorrow he is probably single figures on the day (presuming Honeysuckle/concertista not turning up).

If he is beaten I would have thought he would likely be retired??

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Slim said:
Question for anyone that feels like answering it.

Would you take 14/1 Buveur Dair for the Champion Hurdle right now and why?
Click to expand...

He was 16/1 in a few places the other day when I checked so maybe there's been sustained, quiet money for/word about him from the 'right' people.

I read somewhere he worked last week "behind closed doors" and worked the house down.

I can afford to feel a wee bit smug with two 25/1 bets but worry about tomorrow's race - even if the weights hugely favour him - so I think I'd want NRNB now. Betfred are going 12s with the concession so I'd think about that.
 
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Slim said:
Question for anyone that feels like answering it.

Would you take 14/1 Buveur Dair for the Champion Hurdle right now and why?
Click to expand...

Not now Nico is riding.

He’s probably not as bad as i make out, but you can be sure he’ll run him into traffic or chuck him at a hurdle somewhere.

I’ve got a 25/1 docket like DO. I wouldn’t be topping up though. Would you take it?
 
Thanks all. Hope he wins tomorrow just to throw a spanner in the works.
 
Possible scenario: he wins cosily tomorrow and 'for some reason or other' Epatante is withdrawn :ninja:
 
Why Hendo hasn’t sacked Nico is beyond me.

Soon as i saw Nico will be riding Buveur the Champion Hurdle, docket should have gone in the bin

An absolute fraud of a jockey. Very fortunate to be in the position he’s in. Isn’t pocket talk either as i didn’t have a dime on
 
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