The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

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Grasshopper said:
I think this is cobblers.

Anyone who thought that BdA would get the kitchen-sink treatment today, needs to think a bit more about how long the fave had been off the track, and the ground he was running on. There was never any chance they were going to tear the arse/heart out of Boov today.

As for NdB’s jockeyship, the Biter’s RSA and KG runs shows his quality at both ends of the spectrum: tenacious in a finish, and kidding a horse on that it isn’t in a race.

Is he better than most other jockeys? Probably not, but the suggestion that he is “abysmal” is way off the mark. As Barjon says; he rides to instruction, and if he’s told to give something a quiet one, that’s what he will do. It’s something you will see from all jockeys from time to time - his tame efforts just stand-out more, because Henderson’s horses are backed regardless every weekend - even if they’re often “not today” jobs.
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I respect your opinion, but think you’ve got Nico wrong.

Might Bites RSA, the loose horse won Might Bite than race, not Nicos jockeyship. His King George field was poor.

Regarding today, maybe it was instruction. But giving 12 lengths at the start and tracking Ballyandy seems odd. No mention of the 3 other favs he was beaten on today, or the 5 favs he was beaten on at Sandown a few weeks back. Surely they weren’t all instructed as well.

Just my opinion.
 
Fair enough, DoubleJ, but as I said, a lot of Henderson’s horses get backed just because he trains them, and not because their form-chance demands it.

I just don’t think that winning strike-rate on jollies is a particularly robust way of measuring a jockey’s talent (or lack thereof).
 
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Marb said:
What about his ride on Coneygree in the Gold Cup nearly six years ago now.

The bloke knows how to win races.

Buveir today was simply not good enough.

The best horse on the day clearly won.

What was he beat today? 2/3 lengths?

Not even McCoy out of retirement would have won on him.
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Correction. Buv beaten over four lengths today.

You can sometimes understand it if you get beat a neck but when your beaten over four lengths its very unlikely the jockey cost him the race.
 
Double J said:
I respect your opinion, but think you’ve got Nico wrong.

Might Bites RSA, the loose horse won Might Bite than race, not Nicos jockeyship. His King George field was poor.

Regarding today, maybe it was instruction. But giving 12 lengths at the start and tracking Ballyandy seems odd. No mention of the 3 other favs he was beaten on today, or the 5 favs he was beaten on at Sandown a few weeks back. Surely they weren’t all instructed as well.

Just my opinion.
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What were the five favourites at Sandown?
 
Beef or Salmon said:
What were the five favourites at Sandown?
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5th December, Sandown. Bit longer than a few weeks ago. He was due to ride 5 favs, Altior pulled out. I put on here he’d lose on all 5, was 4 in the end.

Paros - 4/7
Grand Mogul - 2/11
Chassamax - 3/1
Mister Cofeey - 6/4

Also had a good book of rides today, lost on them all.
Good book of rides yesterday or day before, lost on them all, bar the steering job.

Never seen as many odds on shots get beaten under any other jockey as i do him. Its not a coincidence.
 
Double J said:
5th December, Sandown. Bit longer than a few weeks ago. He was due to ride 5 favs, Altior pulled out. I put on here he’d lose on all 5, was 4 in the end.

Paros - 4/7
Grand Mogul - 2/11
Chassamax - 3/1
Mister Cofeey - 6/4

Also had a good book of rides today, lost on them all.
Good book of rides yesterday or day before, lost on them all, bar the steering job.

Never seen as many odds on shots get beaten under any other jockey as i do him. Its not a coincidence.
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Chassamax wasnt favourite and Paros was made fav simply becasue of who trained him, it was a juvenile hurlder making his UK debut. Dont recall a single error on the other two, they simply werent good enough on the day. He was a 20% plus strike rate consistently over the last 6 seasons.

The notion that Henderson would employ anyone as incompetent as you are suggesting he is, is quite honestly ludicrous.

This reminds me very much of the time when people used to argue that Ruby Walsh was poor because he keeps falling off horses at the last fence. And the logic is the same - Walsh was in contention at the front of races more than most and NDB rides more favs than most.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Chassamax wasnt favourite and Paros was made fav simply becasue of who trained him, it was a juvenile hurlder making his UK debut. Dont recall a single error on the other two, they simply werent good enough on the day. He was a 20% plus strike rate consistently over the last 6 seasons.

The notion that Henderson would employ anyone as incompetent as you are suggesting he is, is quite honestly ludicrous.

This reminds me very much of the time when people used to argue that Ruby Walsh was poor because he keeps falling off horses at the last fence. And the logic is the same - Walsh was in contention at the front of races more than most and NDB rides more favs than most.
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If you dont recall a single error on Mister Coffey then i suggest watching the race back. If you gave one of the Irish jockeys the same rides he has, i can gurantee the strike rate would be a lot better.

Hendo has his reasons, and he’s clearly a more qualified judge then ill ever be. And with all due respect, facts and figures can be turned round in anyway to suit people’s arguments, mine included.
Both got differing opinions so leave it at that, but nothing will change my mind on it.
 
DJ is entitled to his opinion on NdB just as I am about Richard Johnson.

No doubt for every bad ride I could cite by RJ, others could come back with five good ones.

Even I accept that without AP on the scene RJ would be hailed as something like a 20-times champion jockey.

But he'll always be a negative for me!
 
Debate is healthy Double!

Mister Coffey has far bigger days ahead I would think, 6/4 was a silly price for a handicap like that. I will admit I dont actually remember the finer details of the race I was genuienly asking what he did wrong, I wasnt suggesting he didnt do anything wrong.
 
Indeed. I just dont want to the debate to death :lol:

Yeah, others may disagree, but i thought Mister Coffey was there to win, and was given a poor one. Games a matter of opinions, and if we all agreed and it was as straight forward, id think it’d be boring.

I think a lot of the stick NDB gets, especially on Twitter is pocket talk. Something ive been guilty of with him before (Might Bite Gold Cup)
And i think a lot of his good points are out weighed by his bad points. If i had horses there to win in what should be a competitive race, he’d be one of the last jockeys I’d pick.

I just thought my opinion on him being turd would be a more shared opinion than what it is :lol:
 
Marb said:
What about his ride on Coneygree in the Gold Cup nearly six years ago now.

The bloke knows how to win races.

Buveir today was simply not good enough.

The best horse on the day clearly won.

What was he beat today? 2/3 lengths?

Not even McCoy out of retirement would have won on him.
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McCoy killed every good horse he sat on so that's a bad comparison.
 
Double J said:
Indeed. I just dont want to the debate to death :lol:

Yeah, others may disagree, but i thought Mister Coffey was there to win, and was given a poor one. Games a matter of opinions, and if we all agreed and it was as straight forward, id think it’d be boring.

I think a lot of the stick NDB gets, especially on Twitter is pocket talk. Something ive been guilty of with him before (Might Bite Gold Cup)
And i think a lot of his good points are out weighed by his bad points. If i had horses there to win in what should be a competitive race, he’d be one of the last jockeys I’d pick.

I just thought my opinion on him being turd would be a more shared opinion than what it is :lol:
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It's not pocket talk. I'm his biggest critic on Twitter. He is technically an awful jockey. He has hands of stone and horses don't settle for him.
 
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Double J said:
Yeah, others may disagree, but i thought Mister Coffey was there to win, and was given a poor one. Games a matter of opinions, and if we all agreed and it was as straight forward, id think it’d be boring.
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I'm not convinced this is the best example you could use to support your argument, Double J. I thought Mister Coffey, although very heavily backed (from memory, I think Slim told us it was a job horse), was ridden deliberately not to win. I missed the good prices and ended up letting him go so was keeping an eye out for him during the race. We've seen NdB win plenty of those big hcaps for Hendo and this ride didn't resemble those. I thought he was weighing everything up for something else further down the line, maybe the Betfair (joint-top on my figures), County or Coral Cup. That Sandown race was only worth £23k to the winner. The other races are worth double that. I reckon we'll see a different ride should he take in one or more of those.

But none of that means you're wrong. It's just a different opinion.
 
I've gone in again on Buveur D'Air at 20/1 NRNB.

I wouldn't have been at all surprised if his price had shortened after yesterday's performance so I'm happy to go in at longer odds with the concession.

I still won't be at all surprised if Epatante is withdrawn at some point.
 
Owner Kenny Alexander’s racing manager Peter Molony said: “Henry (de Bromhead, trainer) says she’s in good form and we’re very excited to see her run again.
“With every run she has she’s risking her unbeaten record, but she owes us nothing and has been fantastic. Please God she’ll run a good race for us.
“Last year we were 90 per cent Mares’ Hurdle and 10 per cent Champion Hurdle. This year, we’re probably leaning a little bit more towards the Champion, but we’ll see.
“Next week will tell a lot.”
 
granger said:
Owner Kenny Alexander’s racing manager Peter Molony said: “Henry (de Bromhead, trainer) says she’s in good form and we’re very excited to see her run again.
“With every run she has she’s risking her unbeaten record, but she owes us nothing and has been fantastic. Please God she’ll run a good race for us.
“Last year we were 90 per cent Mares’ Hurdle and 10 per cent Champion Hurdle. This year, we’re probably leaning a little bit more towards the Champion, but we’ll see.
“Next week will tell a lot.”
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Nice horse, i just dont think she can win a Champion. Should she win the Irish Champion, she’ll make my fancies an even better price come the day of Cheltenham.

Not that makes much of a difference though. Dont think I’ve ever been punting so bad ever. Genuinely couldn’t pick my nose. Id have better success drawing horses out of a hat. Terrible few weeks. Rancid since Boxing Day
 
The CH for Honeysuckle I presume is the topic, I'd be more inclined to take a chance Aspire Tower coould slip the field t the top of the hill and steall the race as Honeysuckle will be done for toe if a few hit the last together.

What might be twisting their arm to wards CH it looks like a forgone conclusion Honeysuckle is very much up against it taking on Concersista which I reckon is one of the best bets of he festival...........could be it lets throw caution to the wind better a place in the CH than the mares....who knows how they think?
 
I'm not convinced he is genuinely a 156 horse. For all there were only three runners, I reckon there were two races taking place. Buveur's plan was track an maybe beat Ballyandy, ignoring Navajo Pass.

Ballyandy threw in a disappointing performance but by the time Nico realised it NP was away in front in deep ground and jumping very slickly. Buveur probably didn't do too badly getting close to him going to the last before blowing up.

Navajo Pass is eminently opposable at the top level and won't be winning any top handicaps off that mark.

Still, they managed to get a decent pot out of him in the short term but I'm very surprised they didn't target the Betfair if he was that much better than his mark. It's worth a lot more.
 
Here’s Timeform’s top hurdlers

They re-rated Navajo Pass to 151 (from 145) with Buveur d'Air 150 (from 158)

HURDLERS

163 SHARJAH
162 ARAMON
162 SILVER STREAK
160p ENVOI ALLEN
160 HONEYSUCKLE
159p SHISHKIN
159 BENIE DES DIEUX
159 IF THE CAP FITS
159 PAISLEY PARK
157 EPATANTE
157 THYME HILL
156+ MCFABULOUS
156 MR ADJUDICATOR
156 SONG FOR SOMEONE
155 KLASSICAL DREAM
155 SIRE DU BERLAIS
155 SUMMERVILLE BOY
154 BREWIN'UPASTORM
154 LISNAGAR OSCAR
154 ON THE BLIND SIDE
154 PETIT MOUCHOIR
154 RONALD PUMP
154 SAINT ROI
154 SCEAU ROYAL
154 THOMAS DARBY
 
Desert Orchid said:
Still, they managed to get a decent pot out of him in the short term but I'm very surprised they didn't target the Betfair if he was that much better than his mark. It's worth a lot more.
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Question: would you rather go to Newbury and pick up £4,000 for finishing 5th in one of the most competitive races of the calendar year.....
Or turn up in a 3 horse race fully fit against a horse returning from a long lay off and injury, and receive £5,000 if you finish 3rd?????
 
barjon said:
Here’s Timeform’s top hurdlers

They re-rated Navajo Pass to 151 (from 145) with Buveur d'Air 150 (from 158)

HURDLERS

163 SHARJAH
162 ARAMON
162 SILVER STREAK
160p ENVOI ALLEN
160 HONEYSUCKLE
159p SHISHKIN
159 BENIE DES DIEUX
159 IF THE CAP FITS
159 PAISLEY PARK
157 EPATANTE
157 THYME HILL
156+ MCFABULOUS
156 MR ADJUDICATOR
156 SONG FOR SOMEONE
155 KLASSICAL DREAM
155 SIRE DU BERLAIS
155 SUMMERVILLE BOY
154 BREWIN'UPASTORM
154 LISNAGAR OSCAR
154 ON THE BLIND SIDE
154 PETIT MOUCHOIR
154 RONALD PUMP
154 SAINT ROI
154 SCEAU ROYAL
154 THOMAS DARBY
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Buveur d'Air could win the County hurdle of that mark... 150...hmmmmm
 
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