The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

Status
Not open for further replies.
Maxbet said:
Question: would you rather go to Newbury and pick up £4,000 for finishing 5th in one of the most competitive races of the calendar year.....
Or turn up in a 3 horse race fully fit against a horse returning from a long lay off and injury, and receive £5,000 if you finish 3rd?????
Click to expand...

Obviously I'd rather have the latter but I would argue the question is flawed, Maxbet. If it was as simple as that why not just go out and run third, thereby preserving - maybe even lowering - a mark which 156 would imply a much greater likelihood than finishing fifth at Newbury. After all, Kalashnikov, for example, won by nearly five lengths at Newbury off 141 and went up to 154 for it, then was second in the Supreme off that mark. That kind of ratings hike implies he was handicapped to just about win the Betfair.
 
Nicky Henderson has pulled of some stunts with has-beens Binocular back from the dead Sprinter Sacre couldn't possible win another qmcc


The man has 6 Champion Hurdles to his name and 6 QMCC and has defied ratings a thousand times.

It not down to what Buvi;s rated now it is meaningless with NJH it's which horse turns up on the day........His last 2 runs prove nothing as the man has the patience of a saint and least of his woriies are punters,,,,get him right on the day....If he turns up on the day don't expect him to trail in last he will play a mayor roll imo Think MTOY 2nd at 16/1 and 10/1and you know what NJH is capable of with horses others write off
 
Maxbet said:
'
With the exception of the unknown other horses that are well handicapped at present!
Click to expand...

But most handicap winners only go up 5-7lbs for winning. Even Betfair winners won't go up much if there's relatively tight finish. I think I'm right in saying PD'O only went up 5lbs last year. Kalashnikov was a wide-margin winner.

Yes, there will be as many plots in the race as you'll find in the crime section of the local library but not many will be as well in as NP's hike suggests.
 
I wouldn't be too keen to get stuck into Honeysuckle (unless I was a stallion) for the Champion Hurdle on the back of that performance.

Watching that race unfold I actually found myself saying out loud (fortunately Mrs O was in another part of the house), "What the fvck are you guys playing at?" as I watched the rest of the field allow her to saunter clear on the far turn before making their move when it was all far too late.

It looked very suspicious to me, as though they all had their money on her and were just putting their own charges through the motions.

Beating Aba 10 lengths (looked more like eight to me) in receipt of 7lbs doesn't strike me as anywhere near good enough to beat an in-form Epatante or a back-to-form BDA.

And there's the rub...

I also suspect we'll see a totally different Sharjah at Cheltenham.
 
Her best round of jumping today

Sharjah is better than that but not a horse who will transform

One other point is the assumption that the ground will be a lot better in March

Cheltenham has had 2 meetings abandoned now because of water
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wouldn't be too keen to get stuck into Honeysuckle (unless I was a stallion) for the Champion Hurdle on the back of that performance.

Watching that race unfold I actually found myself saying out loud (fortunately Mrs O was in another part of the house), "What the fvck are you guys playing at?" as I watched the rest of the field allow her to saunter clear on the far turn before making their move when it was all far too late.

It looked very suspicious to me, as though they all had their money on her and were just putting their own charges through the motions.

Beating Aba 10 lengths (looked more like eight to me) in receipt of 7lbs doesn't strike me as anywhere near good enough to beat an in-form Epatante or a back-to-form BDA.

And there's the rub...

I also suspect we'll see a totally different Sharjah at Cheltenham.
Click to expand...

Both Epatante and especially Buveur d'Air require a far greater leap of faith. I certainly wouldnt be too keen to get into either of those.

I think its Honeysuckles to lose. Sit behind a strong pace, get first shot at Song for Someone, Goshen or Silver Streak. Use the stamina. Been trained as a two miler this year, and punted today as if de Bromhead was happy with her today. A good and proper favourite for the race. 5/2 is very fair.
 
I was just thinking back to last March and it's ironic how much can change in a year. Back then, when the festival was over, I was absolutely sure that we would see Goshen dominate the 2-mile division this season and go on to lift the Champion Hurdle.

Before the festival, I couldn't see Benie Des Dieux being beaten in the Mares' Hurdle, and was sure she would make amends for the fall at the last, the year before.

...And now look, Goshen nowhere to be seen in the market, Benie Des Dieux not seen since and Honeysuckle now favourite for the Champion Hurdle this year!
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wouldn't be too keen to get stuck into Honeysuckle (unless I was a stallion) for the Champion Hurdle on the back of that performance.

Watching that race unfold I actually found myself saying out loud (fortunately Mrs O was in another part of the house), "What the fvck are you guys playing at?" as I watched the rest of the field allow her to saunter clear on the far turn before making their move when it was all far too late.

It looked very suspicious to me, as though they all had their money on her and were just putting their own charges through the motions.

Beating Aba 10 lengths (looked more like eight to me) in receipt of 7lbs doesn't strike me as anywhere near good enough to beat an in-form Epatante or a back-to-form BDA.

And there's the rub...

I also suspect we'll see a totally different Sharjah at Cheltenham.
Click to expand...

While I question their actions but don’t necessarily buy into the reasons, I thought the same. Letting the mare with the allowance, who is known to stay further, take lengths out of the field at that point was either naive or stupid.
 
It was hardly that they were closing her down to the line. The two that were up with the pace - saldier and petit mouchoir - finished last and second last - beaten by big distances. I think the others were going as fast as they wanted to. Might be a different story on better ground. Then again, good to soft is no longer a given for Cheltenham Tuesdays
 
Last edited:
She was very impressive and deserves her place at the head of the market with Epatante. I thought it was noticeable that none of Willie’s left their race in March behind today.
 
I wouldn t have her on my minđ for the chamion hurdle. I RECKON IT WAS MORE A CASE OF OTHERS BEING WAY BELOw their best and that have all haď enough chances to prove they are ip to ut...Sharjah ??? TBH i have my doubts about winning the mares against the jt fav who looks a class above her
 
Last edited:
I'm not sure about the second bit Tanlic. If that were true Concertista would be heading for the Champion Hurlde with a favourites chance.
 
JamesRB said:
won 2 gold cup's in the last 10 years and been placed in others. not bad for someone "so wank"
Click to expand...

Given the talent he's had in that yard that's under achieving but the main point is he can't keep them sound. Bob's Worth was pretty much gone the year after his big win and Long Run didnt have a very long career - esp when you compare him to similar sort of very precocious chasers like Kauto and Bristol DM.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top