The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

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Never seen the 2nd as a genuine contender for the Champion. That said, I see where you are coming from.
 
Yeah it was very impressive from Goshen, if you don't rate him through Song for Someone, who I agree looked cooked very early on, then you use Navajo Pass.

I think going right handed improves Goshen a fair bit mind you.
 
I would want more sectional information before rushing to conclusions about the race.

It's not as if Navajo Pass burst himself trying to chase Goshen. Goshen was nudged along at halfway to keep tabs on Navajo Pass. Did Navajo Pass just burst himself by going too fast? Navajo Pass ran for all the world like a 'bouncer'.

Song For Someone was struggling at the third and ran on past horses that were stopping.

Goshen was visually impressive but I want hard data to back up the visuals.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I would want more sectional information before rushing to conclusions about the race.

It's not as if Navajo Pass burst himself trying to chase Goshen. Goshen was nudged along at halfway to keep tabs on Navajo Pass. Did Navajo Pass just burst himself by going too fast? Navajo Pass ran for all the world like a 'bouncer'.

Song For Someone was struggling at the third and ran on past horses that were stopping.

Goshen was visually impressive but I want hard data to back up the visuals.
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I think this is all over the place. NP burst himself trying to stay in front of Goshen. They didnt go too fast apparently yet Song for Someone ran on past horses that were stopping. This of course is 20l behind Goshen.

The people who keep getting Goshen wrong are heartening. Nudged along to keep tabs? Easy after the race but Moore had a tricky job to settle Goshen and ensure when waking him up that he didn't take off. It wasn't until Ruby's Road to Cheltenham review this week on Goshen and showed how hard he pulled in the International. It was how he could get beaten here. The only question is whether Honeysuckle can go with him. Goshen cruising up beside NP 6f out made up NP mind and had to try to go with him 2f further out than ideal. He got a breather around the turn at Haydock before kicking and getting too far ahead of Buveur.
 
HawkWing said:
The only question is whether Honeysuckle can go with him.
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There is going to be serious pace on here. Silver Streak is clearly going to be up in the van aswell.
So if the ground is decent, will your confidence dwindle a little?
 
The slower the better for him, as I think his jumping isn't the jumping of a champion hurdler yet. New course is different test and regardless of his running ability, its where he will be put under most pressure. Yesterday made me realise that he might be the freak that I thought he was last year (and again looks amazingly handicapped on the flat).
 
HawkWing said:
The slower the better for him, as I think his jumping isn't the jumping of a champion hurdler yet. New course is different test and regardless of his running ability, its where he will be put under most pressure. Yesterday made me realise that he might be the freak that I thought he was last year (and again looks amazingly handicapped on the flat).
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Aye, if anything is going to catch him out it’s jumping at Champion Hurdle speed. Otherwise he’s going to take some stopping. I’m not sure why some question Saturday - if the others were stopping, he didn’t and if they weren’t stopping, he moved away. Either way he beat decent horses out of sight and he had plenty left judging by how hard it was for Jamie to pull him up.
 
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Not sure anyone has mentioned this but after the weekend, Christmas and DFR, are we not going to see Goshen, Honeysuckle and Silver Streak going eyeball to eyeball 15L clear of the pack.

You’d hope Coleman has learnt he can’t give something that lead and sits 4/5 behind. So it could set up for some finish!


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Not so sleepy will lead if no false start is my prediction. Honeysuckle and Goshen will happily take a lead if one goes fast enough.
 
HawkWing said:
The slower the better for him, as I think his jumping isn't the jumping of a champion hurdler yet. The new course is a different test and regardless of his running ability, its where he will be put under the most pressure. Yesterday made me realise that he might be the freak that I thought he was last year (and again looks amazingly handicapped on the flat).
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He is a bit of a monster, of that there is no doubt, but last year on the New course he only had 2 hurdles to jump in the last 7 furlongs, and one of them caught him out. He does jump right under pressure, has to take that extra step. In the video, they released after the win Jamie blames the fall in the Triumph on himself for taking him over to the far rail, something I alluded to in a previous post.
When Make A Stand ran at Cheltenham the first time, he tried to make all and weakened before two out. In The champion hurdle, Pipe learned from their mistake and held him up to the top of the hill, then let him go. We have already seen that Goshen can't be restrained, or rather he'd prefer not to be, so that won't be an option. I can only see him setting the race up for a finisher, or even giving the likes of Honeysuckle a nice lead.
I think the jockey looked nervous as hell too, he seemed to be looking all around for dangers that weren't there and he unbalanced the horse with his antics.
 
He was restrained at the weekend (he didnt lead) and in the Triumph, where he didn't lead, ran third for the first mile. Why it would be different in the Champion, I've no idea.

The jumping to the right is overstated also, and has shown none of that since upped in class. He was left run down to the right in his first juvenile hurdle wins when 20l clear. If Moore had allowed him to do at the last in the Triumph, things would be very different. I don't know why people talk in a narrative completely against what happens before their eyes. People seem very keen to take him on. Understandable if he was 1/5, harder to understand when he is third favourite for a race.

Edit: I'd prefer to have a ballsier jockey on him.
 
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HawkWing said:
He was restrained at the weekend (he didn't lead) and in the Triumph, where he didn't lead, ran third for the first mile. Why it would be different in the Champion, I've no idea.

The jumping to the right is overstated also and he has shown none of that since upped in class. He was left run down to the right in his first juvenile hurdle wins when 20l clear. If Moore had allowed him to do at the last in the Triumph,
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He actually ran (was allowed) down both the last 2 hurdles and each time he was taken back to the rail, only slightly but it is there. It will be far more exaggerated if he is put under more pressure. He relatively cruised through the race, that won't be the case in the Champion.
 
“I think the jockey looked nervous as hell too, he seemed to be looking all around for dangers that weren't there and he unbalanced the horse with his antics.”

Thought the same, Maxbet, Goshen must’ve wondered what the hell was going on.
 
Maxbet said:
He actually ran (was allowed) down both the last 2 hurdles and each time he was taken back to the rail, only slightly but it is there. It will be far more exaggerated if he is put under more pressure. He relatively cruised through the race, that won't be the case in the Champion.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pt4F1c7sDI

If he does that in the Champion it will not make the difference between him winning and losing. It is certainly something no one would have noticed unless they were looking to crab the horse.
 
Take Goshen out, if Song For Someone beat Navjo Pass 17 length, we’d be marvelling.

Ive done a 360, Goshen is a beast. Beats the 2 mares for me.

Such an intriguing race.
 
Double J said:
Take Goshen out, if Song For Someone beat Navjo Pass 17 length, we’d be marvelling.

Ive done a 360, Goshen is a beast. Beats the 2 mares for me.

Such an intriguing race.
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Fair play to you, Double.

There's nothing wrong with doing a 360. :)

Goshen now only 7/2 with William Hill.

Who starts fav do we think?
 
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I'm on record as rating Goshen's Triumph performance very high. I'm also on record as saying I wouldn't back him for the Champion Hurdle as a 5yo unless he puts up a 170+ performance somewhere along the way. Saturday might have been it, it might not.

I just want more info before putting a figure on the performance. My gut says he won a race that fell apart but I'm happy for the data to change my mind.
 
Marb said:
Fair play to you, Double. Nothing wrong with doing a 360. :)
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Im just looking at bare form.

If Song For Someone beats Navajo Pass 17 lengths and Goshen isn’t in the race, there’d be people asking if hes a Champion Hurdle horse. The two mares probably shorten in price an all.

Cause it’s Goshen, people are crabbing it. He was going to hammer them Triumph horses, a lot of which habe come out and ran good races. Aspire Tower being one.

I wouldn’t be laying my head on the chopping board saying he wins, but hes an absolute joke of a horse if he’s right
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm on record as rating Goshen's Triumph performance very high. I'm also on record as saying I wouldn't back him for the Champion Hurdle as a 5yo unless he puts up a 170+ performance somewhere along the way. Saturday might have been it, it might not.

I just want more info before putting a figure on the performance. My gut says he won a race that fell apart but I'm happy for the data to change my mind.
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Ive no data to suggest anything. But take Goshen out, would you be marvelling at Song For Someone?

Dont think you need data for this one. I have read, they were 4 seconds quicker than a novice hurdle earlier on the card, which isn’t the best reading.
 
Yes.

I was actually considering taking the 20s or 25s that he was a few weeks ago. I decided to hold off, as I didn't want to speculate on betting a horse that as far as I'm concerned wasn't himself on the racetrack before Saturday.

I could kick myself, but I'm just happy he's back in a big way.

I've tooks 5s on Saturday night.
 
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I was just thinking that. With Navajo Pass 31l down (OR 156), and Song For Someone an eased 22l down (OR 158), while getting patted down his shoulder half a furlong from home (and getting 6lbs), its going to take a bit of gymnastics to not have him at that figure. Friend or Foe, OR 146, was beaten 38l.

There were some happy to think he was capable of these figures before the Triumph. Not that it made any money.
 
The thing is, Navajo beat Buveir the last day.

Goshen has hammered him.

Plus he's hammered Song For Someone.

It was a 3 horse race really and he's done all you could expect him to do.

I'll let the data experts analyse it.

I saw with my own two eyes what I needed to know.

That's he back.
 
Yes, I'm an advocate of the 'take X out approach' and I'm not blind to his possibly having put up a genuinely CH-winning performance.

I just have these nagging doubts and I'm hoping other harder data can offer a more quantifiable assessment of the run.
 
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