The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

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HawkWing said:
I was just thinking that. With Navajo Pass 31l down (OR 156), and Song For Someone an eased 22l down (OR 158), while getting patted down his shoulder half a furlong from home (and getting 6lbs), its going to take a bit of gymnastics to not have him at that figure. Friend or Foe, OR 146, was beaten 38l.
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There are two ways to run a race and all of these horses ran it one way. With the exception of Goshen, all of them seemed to be off the bridle a long way out, falling for his tactic and playing to his strength. In the first race both the first and second (120 rated) past the line ahead of Song For Someone carrying the same weights. They went much steadier and finished stronger.

It is a conundrum, he is a monster but he definitely comes with a few caveats!
 
I think you're clutching at straws, Max.

They had to try and go with him, holding themselves up surely only would have seen them both beaten even further.
 
I really liked Goshen but I will flag up a couple of things. His two disappointing runs have come at Cheltenham. The first one after a freakish accident at the last, the second due to a heart issue. Now I thought he ran really well at Wincanton although possibly Song for Someone possibly underperformed. But sometimes horses have memories of bad things happening and with there being two problems coming at the same place, it could be playing on my mind. It’s a very small if, but for me it’s still an if!

Take my horse for instance. He absolutely loved hunting. If you blow a hunting horn noise, he used to get so excited and virtually put himself on the horsebox to go (he used to do the same for racing!) But he had a really bad accident that he was lucky to survive after hunting one day. I managed to save his life and nurse him back to life and he’s now rideable. The following season after his accident, I took him back hunting. He coped for about half a day then got really, really stressed. I took him home and tried again. Several times. Each time he started to have panic attacks. And he’s nowhere near the place where it happened. But he clearly definitely remembers and associates hunting with severe pain. Which is such a shame as he was the most brilliant horse to ride out hunting. But I have to accept that he’s not happy and I am just grateful that he’s alive.
 
It would be difficult to find 2 courses more different in configuration than Wincanton and Cheltenham.

Song For Someone would have run his race in about the same time as the winner of the first race on the card. That one received an RPR of 121.
 
jinnyj said:
I really liked Goshen but I will flag up a couple of things. His two disappointing runs have come at Cheltenham. The first one after a freakish accident at the last.
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He was about to put up a monster performance though.
 
archie said:
It would be difficult to find 2 courses more different in configuration than Wincanton and Cheltenham.

Song For Someone would have run his race in about the same time as the winner of the first race on the card. That one received an RPR of 121.
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The implication being that Song for Someone is a 115 rated hurdler (RPR being a bit higher), Navajo Pass is a 95 and Friend of Foe is 80. That's one way of looking at it.
 
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Maxbet said:
There are two ways to run a race and all of these horses ran it one way. With the exception of Goshen, all of them seemed to be off the bridle a long way out, falling for his tactic and playing to his strength. In the first race both the first and second (120 rated) past the line ahead of Song For Someone carrying the same weights. They went much steadier and finished stronger.

It is a conundrum, he is a monster but he definitely comes with a few caveats!
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Falling for his tactic??

Was listening to Kevin Blake on the betfair podcast talking about Goshen unlikely to get a freebe. People seem to assume that he has to go from the front, when he best suited to a eyes-out gallop. All the better if someone brings him along, but if they dont, he can do it.

Are we saying that all those horses to like to front run will fall for his tactic by running to their strengths?

How unlucky was Kevin Blake to get rid of Emmet Kennedy and end up with Hugh Cahill?
 
Goshen has too many question marks to be backing at c. 5/1 for a Champion hurdle in which he'll have to give 7lbs to two very good mares - something which won't be around for too much longer incidentally.

He hangs right, that is proven and was given as the excuse for his disappointing run in the International. It has also been evident when he's run down his hurdles, including on Saturday.

That in itself isn't necessarily insurmountable in lesser races, i.e. he was brought right over to the rail in the Triumph - which isn't uncommon. But an important factor is that while that's fine on the inner, new course at Cheltenham, you just can't do that in a Champion Hurdle on the outer, old course.

Just re-watch the 2017 RSA if evidence of that is required.
 
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wilsonl said:
Goshen has too many question marks to be backing at c. 5/1 for a Champion hurdle in which he'll have to give 7lbs to two very good mares - something which won't be around for too much longer incidentally.

He hangs right, that is proven and was given as the excuse for his disappointing run in the International. It has also been evident when he's run down his hurdles, including on Saturday.

That in itself isn't necessarily insurmountable in lesser races, i.e. he was brought right over to the rail in the Triumph - which isn't uncommon. But an important factor is that while that's fine on the inner, new course at Cheltenham, you just can't do that in a Champion Hurdle on the outer, old course.

Just re-watch the 2017 RSA if evidence of that is required.
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Can you show me the hanging right reason for the International failure. I've heard the fibrilating heart excuse and he doesn't like being crowded. Never the hanging right.

The hanging right thing is boringly incorrect.

On Nick Luck's podcast today, Moore put down the reason for the fall last year was that he didnt have enough hurdles in the last 6f.
 
Solves one problem; namely me getting wankered before the race, and throwing more money at him.
 
HawkWing said:
Can you show me the hanging right reason for the International failure. I've heard the fibrilating heart excuse and he doesn't like being crowded. Never the hanging right.

The hanging right thing is boringly incorrect.

On Nick Luck's podcast today, Moore put down the reason for the fall last year was that he didnt have enough hurdles in the last 6f.
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Wasn't the fibrilating heart thing a non story in the end?
 
HawkWing said:
Can you show me the hanging right reason for the International failure. I've heard the fibrilating heart excuse and he doesn't like being crowded. Never the hanging right.

The hanging right thing is boringly incorrect.

On Nick Luck's podcast today, Moore put down the reason for the fall last year was that he didnt have enough hurdles in the last 6f.
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Hung badly right throughout, took keen hold, tracked leaders, pressed leaders after 3rd, every chance last (usual 2 out), weakened home turn (jockey said gelding hung badly right-handed throughout, trainer said that gelding ran too freely in the early stages and appeared to have been unsuited by the hurdles in the home straight being omitted on this occasion) (op 11/8)
 
Maxbet said:
Hung badly right throughout, took keen hold, tracked leaders, pressed leaders after 3rd, every chance last (usual 2 out), weakened home turn (jockey said gelding hung badly right-handed throughout, trainer said that gelding ran too freely in the early stages and appeared to have been unsuited by the hurdles in the home straight being omitted on this occasion) (op 11/8)
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Still going to go with my eyes on this.
 
HawkWing said:
The implication being that Song for Someone is a 115 rated hurdler (RPR being a bit higher), Navajo Pass is a 95 and Friend of Foe is 80. That's one way of looking at it.
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No, it's nothing at all like that.

It's about what the performances amount to, not the horses.

It boils down to Goshen running his race and the others not running theirs.

Working out why is the task.
 
Desert Orchid said:
No, it's nothing at all like that.

It's about what the performances amount to, not the horses.

It boils down to Goshen running his race and the others not running theirs.

Working out why is the task.
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Yeah, one of the options is that the shape of the race didn't suit those behind.
I don't think SFS beats NP by 20l, without Goshen in the race. Those that tried to go with him, paid for it.
 
Slim said:
He was about to put up a monster performance though.
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Yes he was but the incident may be in his memory. That’s all I was trying to say.
Dont worry. I often sit here and muse over things...quite often they’re a load of complete tosh! :lol:
 
At this time of year you always get freak results.

I still think Navajo Pass bounced but there's no way of provving it. It can only ever be a theory.

Song For Someone has been busy at a high level this season. They will have given him a break after Christmas with Cheltenham in mind and it's possible he wasn't fit enough to do himself justice. Again, nothing I can prove until the trainer comes out and says the horse wasn't fit. I can't check his form (eye injection this morning so can't read small print) but I'm pretty sure he won over just short of 2m4f at Ascot earlier this season so maybe he was out of his comfort zone earlier, again a lack of fitness wouldn't have helped there.

If the time comparison with the diddy race is correct, it has to analysed. If they went far too fast and slowed late mark-ups would apply.

It might end up that Goshen gets a rating of 140 with a 20lbs mark-up. Maybe NP will get a 60lbs mark-up. Who knows.

The year Rooster Booster won the Agfa en route to the CH win, he only beat Self Defense, considerably his inferior, by a neck. But the time was hugely faster than every other race on the card.

Did it mean Self Defense was literally only a neck inferior to RB? No, it just meant SD ran his race in atrocious conditions and pretty much nothing else did.

I reckon I have learned through decades of painful experience that taking visually brilliant performances literally is a quick route to penury.

Think Hawk Wing's Lockinge...
 
He's beaten Song for Someone , Navajo Pass and Friend or Foe in a G2, in similar style to the way Honeysuckle beat Abacadabras, Sharjah and Saint Roi in the Irish Champion Hurdle and yet it's looking a distinct possibility he'll go off shorter than her on the day, despite conceding 7lb.

Recency bias.
 
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