The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

Status
Not open for further replies.
Desert Orchid said:
At this time of year you always get freak results.

I still think Navajo Pass bounced but there's no way of provving it. It can only ever be a theory.

Song For Someone has been busy at a high level this season. They will have given him a break after Christmas with Cheltenham in mind and it's possible he wasn't fit enough to do himself justice. Again, nothing I can prove until the trainer comes out and says the horse wasn't fit. I can't check his form (eye injection this morning so can't read small print) but I'm pretty sure he won over just short of 2m4f at Ascot earlier this season so maybe he was out of his comfort zone earlier, again a lack of fitness wouldn't have helped there.

If the time comparison with the diddy race is correct, it has to analysed. If they went far too fast and slowed late mark-ups would apply.

It might end up that Goshen gets a rating of 140 with a 20lbs mark-up. Maybe NP will get a 60lbs mark-up. Who knows.

The year Rooster Booster won the Agfa en route to the CH win, he only beat Self Defense, considerably his inferior, by a neck. But the time was hugely faster than every other race on the card.

Did it mean Self Defense was literally only a neck inferior to RB? No, it just meant SD ran his race in atrocious conditions and pretty much nothing else did.

I reckon I have learned through decades of painful experience that taking visually brilliant performances literally is a quick route to penury.

Think Hawk Wing's Lockinge...
Click to expand...

Hawk Wing was injured in his only subsequent run. You wouldn't have gone broke on that one. Also, for the time aficiondos, there is also no way to prove that the ground was the same for those novices on the first race of the card as it was for the third race over the course on ground that looked to be getting increasingly cut up. What I would suggest is that Song For Someone or Navajo Pass would be long odds on to beat the novice winners.

Its not the weights and measures that get me attracted to Goshen. It doesn't affect my belief in him one way or the other. To me, he is a very different animal to most I've seen in my life. I hope he gets a high rating as those who seem keen to knock the horse - using valid arguements, or not - can be pointed in that direction.

There were those who felt the Triumph was rubbish as well, as if Goshen had nothing to do with the ratings the other horses achieved, or wasn't 12l ahead. There was someone on here who felt he wasnt going to get up the hill and would have lost anyway in the Triumph. There are those who said he goes violently to the right when under pressure - when has he been under pressure?

As for the snobbery towards Moore....
 
wilsonl said:
He's beaten Song for Someone , Navajo Pass and Friend or Foe in a G2, in similar style to the way Honeysuckle beat Abacadabras, Sharjah and Saint Roi in the Irish Champion Hurdle and yet it's looking a distinct possibility he'll go off shorter than her on the day, despite conceding 7lb.

Recency bias.
Click to expand...

Not sure she has the form to handle the likely g/s ground on the day, though?
 
Goshen advertised his wellbeing in no uncertain terms with an electric success in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday, earning a Timeform rating of 163 that propels him to the head of a two-mile division that is at its healthiest for years.

As recently as last month the Champion Hurdle was looking like an underwhelming affair that would set few pulses racing, but the picture is now different following Honeysuckle's impressive victory in the Irish Champion Hurdle and Goshen's resurgence.

Throw into the mix last year's impressive winner Epatante and the Champion Hurdle is now the battleground between three potentially top-class horses, and one of the most fascinating conundrums of the Festival.

Goshen earned a Timeform rating of 163 for his 22-length triumph in the Kingwell. The race rather fell apart as neither Song For Someone nor Navajo Pass gave their running, but the way Goshen tanked through the contest and continued to draw clear in the straight was hugely impressive, while the time, which compares well with the other races at the distance on the card, adds substance to the visual interpretation.

That effort did not just represent a return to form for Goshen following three below-par display on the Flat and over jumps, but it was a career-best and the outstanding performance on the figures from a two-mile hurdler this season.

It doesn't identify Goshen as the one to beat in the Champion Hurdle, however, as the mares Honeysuckle (160) and Epatante (157) will both be receiving 7 lb so come out ahead on weight-adjusted ratings.

Goshen will probably need to find extra to prevail at the Cheltenham Festival, but that is by no means beyond the realms of possibility considering how easily he's been winning. His four wins over hurdles have been by a cumulative margin of 90 lengths, while he was ten lengths clear when unseating at the final flight in the Triumph Hurdle.
 
reet hard said:
Not sure she has the form to handle the likely g/s ground on the day, though?
Click to expand...

She's a flat bred who's shown no problems with quicker ground Reet and put up her best performance of her novice campaign on it at the end of season.

Admittedly those performances were largely over 20f but to my peril I've constantly considered her not quick enough for a genuine 2 mile race but she's kept proving me wrong and she showed at the DRF that she's a blend of speed and stamina.

It comes down to probability vs the odds and is Honeysuckle guaranteed to run her race ?. Pretty much yes. Is Goshen ? I'm not so sure as there are undoubted question marks, will the heart issue resurface, will he run down his hurdles, can they get him to settle, is the form of his last (visually impressive) win all that it seems ?

That's before we weigh up their respective chances of simply being good enough.

At double figures the odds are worth taking a chance. At best priced 9/2, not a chance I'll be a backer. I'm not sure I'd want to be a layer either because he clearly has a lot of ability when it all goes right.
 
The RPRs are similar to those Timeform ratings. On the raw figures Goshen's run on Saturday is the highest rated of the season but the two mares still come out ahead when the 7 lbs are taken into account.
 
HawkWing said:
Nothing runs to form when Goshen runs to form.
Click to expand...

Exactly. It's the old Denman/kauto Star 2008 and Frankel/Canford Cliffs argument. The vanquished ran below form those days because they couldn't handle the pressure the winner's put them under.
 
If the basic tenets of sectional analysis are true jockeys need to be told to be ballsier in these races.

By that, I mean that if it's about efficient running then jockeys need to ignore Goshen and go the pace that will ensure their horse runs to its highest possible mark.

Goshen might still beat them but it might only be by a length or two at the line.

Connections need to be supportive of the jockeys and make it clear to them that if looks like they've given the winner too much rope they won't be criticised.

It's a lot easier on jockeys if they hopelessly chase an over-fast pace on an inferior horse and end up losing heavily. The form people and the public will just say the winner is a monster and the others were well beaten. But if they ride theor horse with maximum efficiency and are a closing-down length at the line they will be slaughtered for getting it 'wrong'.

These scenarios in themselves obviously suggest Goshen is better anyway, and he probably just is better than Saturday's field. Then again, he really only had one horse to beat - SFS, and he probably wasn't fit - since I would fancy many CH hopes to take Navajo Pass any day of the week and twice on a Sunday.
 
Euronymous said:
Exactly. It's the old Denman/kauto Star 2008 and Frankel/Canford Cliffs argument. The vanquished ran below form those days because they couldn't handle the pressure the winner's put them under.
Click to expand...

Come on Euro, Kauto never turned up! Denman was class on the day though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
If the basic tenets of sectional analysis are true jockeys need to be told to be ballsier in these races.

By that, I mean that if it's about efficient running then jockeys need to ignore Goshen and go the pace that will ensure their horse runs to its highest possible mark.

Goshen might still beat them but it might only be by a length or two at the line.

Connections need to be supportive of the jockeys and make it clear to them that if looks like they've given the winner too much rope they won't be criticised.

It's a lot easier on jockeys if they hopelessly chase an over-fast pace on an inferior horse and end up losing heavily. The form people and the public will just say the winner is a monster and the others were well beaten. But if they ride theor horse with maximum efficiency and are a closing-down length at the line they will be slaughtered for getting it 'wrong'.

These scenarios in themselves obviously suggest Goshen is better anyway, and he probably just is better than Saturday's field. Then again, he really only had one horse to beat - SFS, and he probably wasn't fit - since I would fancy many CH hopes to take Navajo Pass any day of the week and twice on a Sunday.
Click to expand...

Or Goshen beats them by 10 or 20 - as he has done. You are making it sound as if he was forcing the pace. He was going comfortably, just at a pace that those against him couldnt cope. I think Moore was so surprised that there was no one with him turning in - looking around to make sure - as he hadnt done anything with Goshen.

What makes you think that Goshen was any further forward than Song For Someone. You are retrofitting an absolute guess to justify your initial impression. I note it has progressed from a suspicion to a probable in the latest post. Didnt you back Buveur dair after he was beaten by Navajo Pass?

What I liked most about the run was half a furlong out, Moore pats him, effectively saying well done, and Goshen wasn't having any of it, forcing Moore to take a tug before the line. He could have gone for another half mile, when everything else (Grade 2 winners) were legless.
 
Last edited:
HawkWing said:
..........What I liked most about the run was half a furlong out, Moore pats him, effectively saying well done, and Goshen wasn't having any of it, forcing Moore to take a tug before the line. He could have gone for another half mile, when everything else (Grade 2 winners) were legless.....
Click to expand...

Not only did he take a tug, but he then had to work hard pulling him up after the line. Goshen still had a tank full. If this was a one off I’d be a tad suspicious, but he’s done it time and time again - especially against the cream of the juvenile crop in the Triumph.
 
reet hard said:
Imo, Kauto Star was imperious around a sharp 3m, Denman beat him in the GC simply for that reason.
Click to expand...

Even though he won two Gold Cups, he was clearly better away from Cheltenham.
This day he wasn't beaten for stamina as he was beaten miles out. He has won Tingle creeks and King Georges yet was struggling early enough in the race.
I have always said despite that, it was one of his bravest races.
 
HawkWing said:
What I liked most about the run was half a furlong out, Moore pats him, effectively saying well done, and Goshen wasn't having any of it, forcing Moore to take a tug before the line. He could have gone for another half mile, when everything else (Grade 2 winners) were legless.
Click to expand...

What I liked least about the thing was Moore straining himself looking around, he didnt exactly do it stylishly either, you would think after what happened last year he would be ultra conservative, I may have been overly critical for financial reasons but he very much looked like it wouldnt take a whole lot for him to fall off :D
 
barjon said:
Not only did he take a tug, but he then had to work hard pulling him up after the line. Goshen still had a tank full. If this was a one off I’d be a tad suspicious, but he’s done it time and time again - especially against the cream of the juvenile crop in the Triumph.
Click to expand...

Does he still win on decent ground?
 
HawkWing said:
Didnt you back Buveur dair after he was beaten by Navajo Pass?
Click to expand...

I certainly did and I don't see how the two situations are remotely linked.ran as

BDA was coming back from a long injury-enforced absence and was never going to be anywhere near race fit. Navajo Pass was on a curve and hit a new high on the day. Knowing the figure reached that day and what BDA has in the past, I was left with the impression BDA had plenty of time left in his preparation to turn up in March fully primed to give Epatante a serious race.

As I said before, I reckon NP had a hard race that day and probably bounced on Saturday.

I was pleased to see Goshen back in form. You seem to believe I have a downer on him. I don't. I said after the Triumph he was putting up a monster 4yo performance. I posted my rating for Burning Ambition: 142. Add on the 7lbs allowance and 11lbs for the likely 10-length win and we're looking at 160 which is huge for a juvenile.

But I will always be reluctant to back a 5yo in the Champion Hurdle. I said at the time Goshen would need to put up a 170+ performance as a 5yo before I would consider backing him for the CH.

Whether he did that on Saturday I don't know. Right now I just have doubts for the reasons given.

I'm not sure when I'll be able to put a number on the performance, though. It might be another week or so before my eyesight is good enough to read the small printed form.

I had no qualms about backing Our Conor. I still think he would have won. Maybe if Goshen's figure works out on a par with him I'll change my mind but that's probably the scenario that would need to emerge for it to happen.

You can always come back then and tell us all you told us so, which would be entirely justified.
 
Goshen is a bit soft.

I don't think he has the class to run all over the field nor the speed to run them up the hill

The weekend will be nothing like the big day
 
granger said:
Won't like being crowded, you have seen his performances this year to date to understand he isn't build overloaded with resolve
Click to expand...

Come on, even his harshest critic cant for a second suggest that his previous run was his true running.

The truth is that we have no idea if he is 'soft' nothing has come close enough to him to find out - granted he hasnt faced anything resembling the quality he will face in 3 weeks time but there absolutely no evidence to suggest he is soft.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top