The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

Status
Not open for further replies.
Grasshopper said:
Solves one problem; namely me getting wankered before the race, and throwing more money at him.
Click to expand...

Made me LOL :lol:

No way Id have let him go off in the day circa 25/1 when im sat on 15/2 AP slips. Don’t think i’ll ever forgive the horse for this year.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Come on, even his harshest critic cant for a second suggest that his previous run was his true running.

The truth is that we have no idea if he is 'soft' nothing has come close enough to him to find out - granted he hasnt faced anything resembling the quality he will face in 3 weeks time but there absolutely no evidence to suggest he is soft.
Click to expand...

He couldn't beat 90-odd rated Flat handicappers getting weight from them. Soft or just not good enough? Wold you fancy those Flat handicappers to give Epatante or Honeysuckle a race?

As for the form with Song For Someone, it's amazing that he can beat SFS by 22L and the latter is deemed to have run his race whereas two months earlier he was beaten 29L by SFS who was again giving him 6lbs.
 
Desert Orchid said:
He couldn't beat 90-odd rated Flat handicappers getting weight from them. Soft or just not good enough? Wold you fancy those Flat handicappers to give Epatante or Honeysuckle a race?

As for the form with Song For Someone, it's amazing that he can beat SFS by 22L and the latter is deemed to have run his race whereas two months earlier he was beaten 29L by SFS who was again giving him 6lbs.
Click to expand...

Folded like a cheap suit the second he was taken on in his Haydock flat run and the same thing happened straight after he’d been taken to the front after the (usual) 2nd last in the International.

And while we’ve been given different excuses; heart issue, hung badly right, doesn’t like being crowded, we’re talking about a horse that is closing in on favouritism for the Champion Hurdle on the back of one Dato Star esque performance and an admittedly impressive Triumph run - in which he ultimately fell.
 
Last edited:
Lee, how dare you compare the legendary, Grade 1-winning hurdler Dato Star, with Goshen.

Go and stand in the fu*cking corner, and think about what you just did.
 
Last edited:
Grasshopper said:
She was very mulish coming out of the paddock, and going to post at Kempton. That might have been something to do with the under-par performance, but if it was, it would hardly fill you with confidence for her next race.
Click to expand...

I was told last night she was found to be in season. Don't know if you knew but i was told that was 100% behind the bad run.. So why still run her.....???? good reason not to metion it afterwards after the result
 
wilsonl said:
Folded like a cheap suit the second he was taken on in his Haydock flat run and the same thing happened straight after he’d been taken to the front after the (usual) 2nd last in the International.

And while we’ve been given different excuses; heart issue, hung badly right, doesn’t like being crowded, we’re talking about a horse that is closing in on favouritism for the Champion Hurdle on the back of one Dato Star esque performance and an admittedly impressive Triumph run - in which he ultimately fell.
Click to expand...

I do think that's a bit harsh, wilsonl.

The 'real' Goshen is clearly a top class horse. He showed that last season and again on Saturday.

I'm merely pointing out the flaws in the arguments about Saturday's form.

I wouldn't be surprised if 164 is his true level, which makes him very smart. But Honeysuckle is also rated 164 and she'll be getting the 7lbs.

Then there's Buveur D'Air who was a low/mid-170s horse in his own right at his peak and I'm not prepared to rule out the possibility that he might still be that good.

Personally, I'm prepared to overlook Goshen's Flat runs as irrelevant but they're still there in his record and can't be a positive.
 
Last edited:
Slim said:
Goshen is now rated 164.
Click to expand...

Whats your opinion on that?

Not that I pay much attention to ratings but the 2nd never raised a gallop on the heavy ground and in fact has been beaten on it every time he faced it.

The 3rd wouldn't be sighted in a Champion Hurdle so in fact he beat very little..........rating imo should be 160 if that on that run
 
I don't think I've ever seen a horse divide opinion as much as Goshen.

It's fascinating reading, he certainly seems to be like Marmite.
 
My view is that it’s guesswork, but probably accurate to within a handful of lbs.

I won’t be taking a strong view on the merit of the actual form of the Kingwell, but it’s hard to crab Goshen’s performance, which was clearly very good.

9/2 for the Champion Hurdle though? I’m not so sure.
 
Last edited:
That's the thing.

I see it as two different debates.

One is; Is the horse very good and good enough to win a champion hurdle ?.

I don't think many people would argue against that, myself included. The BHA rates him 164 and I think that's fair and with the expected improvement as a 5 year old he has every right to be considered a contender and I can see the appeal in those that fancy him strongly.

But the second argument (which was where I was coming from) is; is he a bet at 9/2 for this Champion Hurdle when he's conceding 7lb to two genuine G1 mares ?.

Despite being unlucky, he's still to actually win a G1 himself so for me, with two or three question marks, the answer to this is 'No' but I'm happy to be proven wrong at that price because I'd love to see the Moore's win it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I do think that's a bit harsh, wilsonl.

The 'real' Goshen is clearly a top class horse. He showed that last season and again on Saturday.

I'm merely pointing out the flaws in the arguments about Saturday's form.

I wouldn't be surprised if 164 is his true level, which makes him very smart. But Honeysuckle is also rated 164 and she'll be getting the 7lbs.

Then there's Buveur D'Air who was a low/mid-170s horse in his own right at his peak and I'm not prepared to rule out the possibility that he might still be that good.

Personally, I'm prepared to overlook Goshen's Flat runs as irrelevant but they're still there in his record and can't be a positive.
Click to expand...

Maybe DO but both times he's been surrounded by horses when the pressure is applied, he's fell back so far he's finished stone last. And it's all well and good people making excuses but the conclusion must be that he either doesn't like that scenario - which he is sure to get in the CH - or he's regularly suffered with something which is causing it.

Either way, that wouldn't fill me with confidence as they line up on the Tuesday.
 
wilsonl said:
That's the thing.

I see it as two different debates.

One is; Is the horse very good and good enough to win a champion hurdle ?.

I don't think many people would argue against that, myself included. The BHA rates him 164 and I think that's fair and with the expected improvement as a 5 year old he has every right to be considered a contender and I can see the appeal in those that fancy him strongly.

But the second argument (which was where I was coming from) is; is he a bet at 9/2 for this Champion Hurdle when he's conceding 7lb to two genuine G1 mares ?.

Despite being unlucky, he's still to actually win a G1 himself so for me, with two or three question marks, the answer to this is 'No' but I'm happy to be proven wrong at that price because I'd love to see the Moore's win it.
Click to expand...

I think that’s a nicely balanced assessment. I was startled when I first saw him and I still am despite the blip in the middle. He’s already done me very well and he’ll carry a big chunk of my money in the CH. Am I confident about collecting? Heart says yes, head says maybe.
 
wilsonl said:
Maybe DO but both times he's been surrounded by horses when the pressure is applied, he's fell back so far he's finished stone last. And it's all well and good people making excuses but the conclusion must be that he either doesn't like that scenario - which he is sure to get in the CH - or he's regularly suffered with something which is causing it.

Either way, that wouldn't fill me with confidence as they line up on the Tuesday.
Click to expand...
His flat form is irrelevant. Hurdling is his forte, (his RPR in that sphere is 70lbs above his flat rating) and, despite his latest run being cribbed, it was pretty conclusive he's trained on. The 7lb allowance isn't some sort of bonus, it's there for a reason,and I suspect the mares might need it, when push comes to shove.
 
The 7lb allowance will be gone within the next 5 or so years Reet. Some allowances are there for a good reason but the mares allowance, at the age they're at isn't one.

As for his flat form being irrelevant. It wasn't the form I was questioning. It was the manner of his defeats. Watch the Goodwood race. He leads them over to the stands side rail and then just after the 2f pole, as he starts to come under real pressure you can see Crouch pulling on the left side of the reins. It isn't too bad initially but it becomes worse as Natural History draws upsides and the instant he goes past and Crouch adjusts his reins the horse veers pretty violently right, slightly bumping the eventual winner.

It's only the presence of Hyenna which stops him drifting further across the track.

Moore did the same thing on Saturday. He brought him right over to the rail and while this is far from an uncommon act for obvious reasons, it strikes me that they know they need to have him with something to run against. Win or lose next month, if he hasn't ruined his chances by then I'd say it is odds on that he will not be running a straight line up the old course straight.

If he has horses either side of him to help keep him straight then he apparently doesn't like being crowded - and there is evidence of this - and if he doesn't he'll run off a true line and if he does then he'll need every ounce of that ability.

I've already conceded that he's good enough to win a Champion Hurdle but what I can't get is people's refusal to accept that the horse has quirks which could cost him in a race of this nature.
 
Last edited:
I think the idea of an allowance is here to stay. Whether it comes back down from 7lbs is the more likely issue.

Ruby Walsh said in an interview not that long ago that the allowance was there for 'commercial' reasons, to encourage the ownership and running of mares in the better races,thereby enhancing their broodmare value.

That's as maybe. Clearly mares would struggle in open company without the allowance. Was Glencaraig Lady the last mare to win a top race without an allowance? Certainly donkeys like Dawn Run and Flakey Dove would not have won without it.

But I think an allowance of some sort is here to stay. I don't have a problem with that. Female horses are generally less robust that males. An allowance of some sort in order to allow them to compete in top company seems reasonable. It's just a matter of quantifying it accurately, probably an impossible task in itself since they are flesh and bone and not machines. It can only ever be a 'best fit' situation but you'd think with all the computer power the authorities boast about having you'd think they could come up with a close average of some sort to reflect the physical difference.
 
Sorry, yes. I should have been clear that I think they'll still receive some form of allowance. If it went from 7 to 0 overnight it'd be a long time before we'd see another mare in the race.
 
I feel the problem with Goshen is it's hard to hang your hat on any piece pf form and say it's CH form.......his latest win he beat nothing and ran 4 stinkers before that....I have see many horses over the years like Boxer, polaardstown, Connaught Ranger First Bout Peace and Co not tomentio the Ill fated OUR CONOR wh I thought would win the Champion Hurdle and only PersianWar and Katchit won for me..........you get 0ne every 20 years and that is what you are up against...the differnce betwee Triumph and Champion form is splt by the grand canyon
 
Tanlic said:
I feel the problem with Goshen is it's hard to hang your hat on any piece pf form and say it's CH form.......his latest win he beat nothing and ran 4 stinkers before that....I have see many horses over the years like Boxer, polaardstown, Connaught Ranger First Bout Peace and Co not tomentio the Ill fated OUR CONOR wh I thought would win the Champion Hurdle and only PersianWar and Katchit won for me..........you get 0ne every 20 years and that is what you are up against...the differnce betwee Triumph and Champion form is splt by the grand canyon
Click to expand...

The problem is that everyone is just interested in speaking in cliches.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top