barjon
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Nah, he’ll put it on Buveur d'Air
The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle
- Thread starter Diamond Geezer
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Nah, he’ll put it on Buveur d'Air
He backed her in Newcastle in a boat race at EVS. I don't think it's one he will back and there is no betting ring anyway.
Hope she does, Slim.
As Goshen is the youngest of the principals, has had fewer races and (imo) has more speed, he obviously has more scope for progression, and the very fact that he warmed up in a gd2 suggest his stable think so too. 4/1 on the day will do me nicely.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
JP doesn't back antepost and he always places his bets on the day of the race at the meeting.......this time around if he is forced to bet off course you willnever know via the market if hehas or he hasn't.........but rumours will fly and Epatante will probably go of fav late in the day......Goshen will drift like a barge IMO and Honeysuckle will remain steady..could go off JT favs?????
I'd suggest you wouldn't know much about The Great Man's MO.
Does he not though?
Did Epatante not come down with a cough this time last year so he could get more on at a bigger price?
granger
Senior Jockey
This thread may have peaked - quieter day today
What are the current conditions like on Track? Roger may know best
What are the current conditions like on Track? Roger may know best
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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Drying wind the last two or three days, fairly sunny today. Not a lot of rain forecast before mid March.We are sheltering so probably won't be able to go up there this year even if I was allowed to.
Good to Soft is available somewhere at 4/9 somewhere I gather.
Good to Soft is available somewhere at 4/9 somewhere I gather.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
My understanding is they made a huge mistake backing Franchoek for the Triumph Hurdle AP and hasn't backed AP since
NJH was adamant Binocular should run on the New Course but Berry refused asthe money was down on the fav Celerstial Halo won the race Capt Cee Bee beat Binocular wasn't AP's fav time as he rode both losers
Look who has been reading this thread
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Od0wokpdxAY
First 17min is on the champion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Od0wokpdxAY
First 17min is on the champion.
Desert Orchid
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Watched it live for the first time last night. Always good to get a pro's perspective.
However, all too often when it seems everybody can wor out the pace scenario the jockeys go and do the opposite.
As a rule, I hate seeing anything I've backed try and come from the rear. It's usually a sign of a jockey either getting it badly wrong or not trying. And it's usually more exaggerated the bigger the field.
I wouldn't want anything I've backed in the CH to be any further back than midfield.
However, all too often when it seems everybody can wor out the pace scenario the jockeys go and do the opposite.
As a rule, I hate seeing anything I've backed try and come from the rear. It's usually a sign of a jockey either getting it badly wrong or not trying. And it's usually more exaggerated the bigger the field.
I wouldn't want anything I've backed in the CH to be any further back than midfield.
Seems they're learning, too.
Maxbet
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Based on times from 2 out Honeysuckle would have been beaten fully 8 lengths in last year Champion taking the trip into consideration 2m4f shee may have gotton a bit closer but it's blatantly obvious she neither has the pace or the speed to beat Epatante..4 second slowe on average last year makes that pretty clear....Ruby tells us on one breath Goshens race was a non event then tells us about his tremendous pace....seen so many horses clock good ties when racing alone so he is harder to judge.......but IMO none of them have the class to beat JP's....what could happen is something like Aspire Tower get ignored and steals the race from the top of the hill but I cant see Goshen or Honeysuckle living with Eapatante
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Frankel
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Not going to be stealing a race with so much pace in it Tanlic.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
you are probably right but the big 3 watching each other who knows.....contempt sneaks in to races way too often thinking that can win ignore it
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Desert Orchid
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If you can, try and find the interview Ruby Walsh did on Might Bite's RSA. He rode Bellshill. He talked about how confident he was that he was going to win early in the race because Might Bite had gone off so fast he reckoned there was no way on this earth MB could keep going. He closed to withing around 12 lengths of MB three out only to see him run away from him again. He said he couldn't believe what he had just witnessed.
It's impossible to know how this race is going to pan out.
If the forward-going horses stay efficient they won't be caught. As Ruby suggested last night, if they go very fast there has to be a chance on or two of them (he was talking Honeysuckle and Goshen effectively) won't stop. If they all stop, though, something will pick them up.
Yeah. There are two types of strong pace really. Not So Sleepy and For Pleasure taking them out, trying to conserve energy when they can through smooth jumping or clever jockeyship perhaps, with hold up horses waiting for them to inevitably fall back and pick them off through 'class'. And having front runners who want a stiff test of stamina and whose interests are NOT best served by slowing the pace down. Those hold up horses need to go after them.
On last years Champion Hurdle, there was about 100 yards coming down the hill where I thought Le Patriote could do a Norton's Coin. There is a chance that it was an awful race won by a good horse.
On last years Champion Hurdle, there was about 100 yards coming down the hill where I thought Le Patriote could do a Norton's Coin. There is a chance that it was an awful race won by a good horse.
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barjon
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Nah; Goshen makes all, and Jamie laughs at those trying to lay up with him.
the only danger is Jamie falling off as he squirms around looking for challengers.
Maxbet
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Let's bear in mind, as you say, they have run 4 furlongs more up to whatever point in the race you want to call it from. Coming off the bend in the Champion, only two horses are not being driven...Epatante...fairly swinging away, the other is Petit Mouchoir. In the Mare's race, they start racing slightly earlier, and it's Blakemore who starts to test Benie's stamina and races from that point, the two of them drawing right away.
If you think about what she did in the Leopardstown race, where Petit Mouchoir is leading until halfway between the 3rd land 2nd last, then Honeysuckle opens up and turns on the taps, making it stamina from there on in..Petit comes under pressure immediately and can't stay with her, he tails off. He hadn't done any more than he did in front in the Champion, but Honeysuckle did him over 40L, Epatante a mere 11L. And the finishers that came after her couldn't close the gap. Their speed was negated by her pace....We have talked enough about the tactics to know that this is going to be about pace, and for most of them, their top speed run is going to start before the second last. I think Honeysuckle has proved she has pace Tanlic!
Edit: She's 4 seconds faster than Drop The Anchor (joint Fav for the County) giving him a stone!!!
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