The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

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Where are the ratings guys?

The Champion Hurdle now looks a 3 horse race.

Epatante
Saint Roi
Abacadabras

Song For Someone will run. Not good enough.
Honeysuckle won't run
Goshen has a heart issue. Could still run but not going off single figures
Concertista won't run
Aspire Tower will run but a lot to find
Boveur Dair. Will know at Xmas but hard to see
Saldier meh
Sharjah meh
Coeur Sublime meh


So of the front 3 hit me with your ratings.
 
I’m not a ratings man. But I asked in November for the books to price me JP owning the 1,2,3 in the Champion Hurdle. They wouldn’t give me one.
(On the notion Buveur will be running)

I want to believe Saint Roi is the one, he’s the one who’s carrying my dosh. Not sure any of them can give Epatante 7 pounds though.

Jockey bookings will be interesting. Am I to assume Coleman keeps the Epatante ride?

I like Aba as well, going to take a ride of the season to deliver him to win I feel though.
 
Coleman would definitely ride. They wouldn't want Nico on a good horse.
 
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It’s Epatante and then clear daylight. All of Saint Roi, Abacadabras, and Saldier can improve further though. The question is how much.

If you’d seen him out Saldier is probably the best value, but you’d want cash out, and on balance I prefer Willie’s two to Abacadabras.

The truth is though we’ve not yet seen Epatante extended, and with her mares allowance I suspect she’s capable of running to the low 170’s, and I’d be surprised if any of the other three are. It’s to big a gap to bridge. I think if she turns up fit and she jumps as she usually does, she wins comfortably. She’ll just run away from them at the last flight leaving the other three and Sharjah to fight for the places.

I think we’ll be rating her 5-7lbs better than the next best post-race.
 
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Slim said:
Where are the ratings guys?

The Champion Hurdle now looks a 3 horse race.

Epatante
Saint Roi
Abacadabras

Song For Someone will run. Not good enough.
Honeysuckle won't run
Goshen has a heart issue. Could still run but not going off single figures
Concertista won't run
Aspire Tower will run but a lot to find
Boveur Dair. Will know at Xmas but hard to see
Saldier meh
Sharjah meh
Coeur Sublime meh


So of the front 3 hit me with your ratings.
Click to expand...

I've shelved my stuff until midweek but have put my ratings up here often enough. The 'Road to' series with Ruby and Lydia looked at official ratings the other day.

From the Weekender, these are the current top hurdlers (editing out the stayers) on RPRs:

Aramon 163
Aba 161
Saint R 161
JTM 160
S Streak 160


Someone somewhere has clearly had a brain fart of some sort with Epatante not quoted, unless those are purely this season's ratings, which I think must be what's at play since Bristol De Mai has the top chase rating.

If I remember during the week I'll look at the CH market and post my ratings for the front ten.
 
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ORs

Epatante 162
Saint Roi 157
Abacadabras 158

Song For Someone 156 (up to 161 on Tuesday?)
Honeysuckle won't run
Goshen has a heart issue. Could still run but not going off single figures
Concertista won't run
Aspire Tower 155
Boveur Dair. Will know at Xmas but hard to see
Saldier 159
Sharjah 164
Coeur Sublime 152

Silver Streak 158 (up to 159 on Tuesday?)
Sceau Royal 158

If we're just looking at the top 3, they're possibly about right at the moment and last season's novices should improve but I can't see that improvement being anywhere near enough in March particularly as both seem to have their own ideas about how much effort is required.
 
archie said:
ORs

Epatante 162
Saint Roi 157
Abacadabras 158

Song For Someone 156 (up to 161 on Tuesday?)
Honeysuckle won't run
Goshen has a heart issue. Could still run but not going off single figures
Concertista won't run
Aspire Tower 155
Boveur Dair. Will know at Xmas but hard to see
Saldier 159
Sharjah 164
Coeur Sublime 152

Silver Streak 158 (up to 159 on Tuesday?)
Sceau Royal 158

If we're just looking at the top 3, they're possibly about right at the moment and last season's novices should improve but I can't see that improvement being anywhere near enough in March particularly as both seem to have their own ideas about how much effort is required.
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Thanks for that. Be as forgiving as you can and tell me what you think Saint Roi's celling is in March.
 
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Slim said:
Thanks for that. Be as forgiving as you can and tell me what you think Saint Roi's celling is in March.
Click to expand...

It will need to be 169 just to dead-heat with Epatante, before allowing any further improvement from her.

As an aside, if Aramon had run to his Galway form at Cheltenham he would have won the County, as I argued at the time. If he just improved from March to July he wouldn't need to improve as much as Saint Roi to get close to Epatante.

Buveur D'Air, if 100% fit and well, would certainly frighten the bejaysus out of her.
 
I think Saint Roi is vastly superior to Goshen, what’s more, I think I can prove it…

The only way to understand what is happening in a race is to compare it like for like with another race, in this manner, you can sense how slow or fast they are travelling, when and where the pace changes occur. This, in turn, leads to a clearer understanding of why some horses pulled, didn’t settle etc.

Most of the time it is only possible to compare races from different days, the going descriptions can have the same narrative but for a scientific purpose, they’re not exactly the same. Even same day races can often change their going description by the time of the last race that day.

Fortunately, The Triumph & County Hurdle’s were not only run on the same day, with the same going, but they were only half-hour apart too, and a simple glance at the race finishing times tells us the County was run almost 4 seconds faster than the Triumph, a more in-depth look, reveals a whole lot more though!

For starters, the County field (24 runners) was laden with very good handicappers. Aramon who finished second running off a mark of 149, has subsequently proved to be a stone better at 163, after well advertising the form in subsequent events. The winner, Saint Roi, having only his 3rd run, was running off OR of 137, is now rated 157+.

The first surprise that hits you watching both races together is, that despite no recognised front runner in the County, they go forward and lead the Triumph field, who have three recognised front runners that share the lead throughout. Each of them (Triumph) by their antics, indicate a lack of real pace in the early part of their particular race. The County Field are 2 secs ahead by the second flight. They push on to 3 secs by the third.

After the third flight Allmankind starts to force the issue and he closes the gap to around 1 second by the fourth, maintains that injection to the fifth, drawing level by the sixth. Goshen takes over the lead and pushes on to about 2 lengths by the second last. By all accounts we are told that he’s 10 length’s clear jumping the last. Now from this point it’s argued in all corners for and against, whether he was drawing further away, maintaining his distance, or coming back.

Leaving that apart for a moment to look at the County field and where they are at this point; having been overtaken by approximately 6 Length’s between the third and seventh, quite an injection, by the last flight, with the exception of Goshen, the Triumph field are quickly being swamped by the County finishers. There’s 5 in a line in the County, 3 in line in the Triumph, and Saint Roi looks like he only just joined the race.

Watching the races separate doesn’t show what’s really happening. Observing the Triumph, you can’t see that they have slowed considerably within their own race’s context, it’s only when you see what Saint Roi does to Burning Victory from the last to the line when you compare, that you clearly see that the Triumph field has suffered from the mid-race injection, as she appears to be going up and down on the same spot.

All this said and done, still, a lot of credit can be given to the Protagonist’s in the Triumph, cutting out all the running and still having enough stamina to be there at the finish, that effort is further boosted by the finishing positions (out the back) of those that cut out the running in the County.

So what did happen…..Goshen gets to the last still appearing to be travelling, 10 length’s to the good over Burning Victory. Burning Victory was herself reeling in Goshen, evidenced by the fact she had halved her deficit from third last. She Jumps the last 2 seconds after Goshen unseats, the remaining principles in both races have now drawn level. Believe it or not, go watch the video; Saint Roi then pulls 6 seconds ahead of Burning Victory up the run-in, strongly Suggesting he would have passed Goshen too.

“and look at Saint Roi, absolutely cantering, in the hands of Barry Geraghty”
“and Saint Roi picks up impressively, the money got it right”
“and Saint Roi, was a very impressive winner”

As I said earlier, great credit can be afforded the principles in the Triumph. But whether we afford Saint Roi a bigger mark or the Triumph a lesser one, only time will tell. What is unknown to us is this, was Goshen Precocious, was he ahead in his development of the other 3-year-olds, could well be. I do feel the Triumph was run to suit Goshen, but sadly fate wasn’t.

And Saint Roi, hmmm….8/1, 2/1 a place….got to be a sound e/w bet for the champion…

“and look at Saint Roi, absolutely cantering, in the hands of Mark Walsh”
 
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Slim said:
Thanks for that. Be as forgiving as you can and tell me what you think Saint Roi's celling is in March.
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Normally I'd think in terms of a novice being capable of improving by a stone on its novice rating if things went right which would put Saint Roi at 165. In his favour is that he had few runs as a novice and that the stable seem to prefer him to Sharjah. Against that, it would appear that he has so far only improved 6lb after 2 runs in open company.

There will always be exceptions (Epatante finished last season 25lb higher than her novice rating) but I'd be surprised if he reached 170. However, the 165 (plus or minus 2?) is certainly still on the cards. Ditto Abacadabras although I think that that one has an extra woof factor.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It will need to be 169 just to dead-heat with Epatante, before allowing any further improvement from her.

As an aside, if Aramon had run to his Galway form at Cheltenham he would have won the County, as I argued at the time. If he just improved from March to July he wouldn't need to improve as much as Saint Roi to get close to Epatante.

Buveur D'Air, if 100% fit and well, would certainly frighten the bejaysus out of her.
Click to expand...

I have to say the Aramon analysis on here after the festival was fascinating and I bet it at Galway despite the ground.

I think Saint Roi is underrated which is that opposite of what I thought in the summer. I think the gap between him and Epatante can be bridged and 8/1 and 7/1 is a price to test out the theory.
 
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I'm waiting for NRNB for safety belt prices but, if they let her run, I'd expect Concertista to beat most of the geldings.
 
It doesn't take an essay to produce my thoughts on this years Champion Hurdle now.

It's a no bet race. Simples.

Invest elsewhere.
 
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I think Saint Roi, Saldier, and Sharjah all run if they stay fit, and the market (PP in particular), says that Benie goes for the chase, so Concertista is odds on to be Willie's number 1 in the Mares Hurdle.

I too think Saint Roi tops out in the mid-160's which with Epatante's allowance doesn't get him there, I do think he will finish second or third though depending on a few factors with Saldier, and at current prices it's an investment that'll return possibly and improve if something happens to Epatante before or during the race.
 
Don't think you can put a ceiling on Saint Roi's ability just yet. The Morgiana was far too muddling an event to draw a strong conclusion from, and I'm more inclined to go with the stable vibes at this stage, in terms of how far he can go.
 
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Based on what we're seen so far (out twice now, not once), I'd have wanted to have seen more, irrespective of the horrible tactical ride Mark Walsh gave him last time. There's more to come, but how much more and whether it's enough to produce a rating 7lbs greater than Epatante is doubtful in my mind. I'd say he was to run to the low 170's at least to beat her, and at the moment I suspect he's more likely to be a mid-160's horse.
 
What mark would people have given Epatante at this time last year?

Long way to go folks, especially with regard to second season hurdlers.
 
Song For Someone raised 2lbs to 158.

As I said at the time, the Bula was a glorified handicap.

I reckon talk of any of those contenders troubling Epatante in the CH is pretty fanciful.

What's more, it seems that with just about every passing 'trial' the case for her simply grows stronger.
 
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