The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

[Grasshopper]

I don’t think anyone had any of the Bula runners - Goshen perhaps excepted - as serious threats to Epatante anyway, DO.

The only real threat to her is going to emerge from Ireland, and even those horses will have to improve quite notably, to give her a race in March. There’s still time for that to happen, imo, and I still think she is quite narrow on price at 6/4.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Would I back her right now at 6/4? Absolutely not.

Do I think she is a 6/4 shot? I think she should be shorter. I think that translates as 6/4 that something improves enough to get past her giving her 7lbs. I'm not seeing where it's going to happen, notwithstanding that I take BoS's point about where some of the current improvers are relative to where she was this time last year.

I still suspect Buveur D'Air could be her main danger.

 

[Maruco]

Antepost I have Epatante 9/2, Abacadabras 10/1, Saint Roi 33/1 and 25/1, and Saldier at 25/1.

I think Epatante will win, and two of the other three will fill the places. Last season I backed Epatante too. I did that because I could no longer ignore the blindingly obvious. She was easily the most likely winner and therefore she was the value. I think the first time I backed her she was only 4/1, and I still backed her again on the day at 2/1.

This season, if I didn't have the antepost bet, and specifically the 9/2 about Epatante (plus several multis at that price and at 4/1), I'd be really hopeful that one of the others at a bigger price could bridge the gap because I'd want a viable bet. I certainly wouldn't be backing Epatante now in a single at 6/4, I'd want the each way value and I'd be backing Saint Roi, and probably Saldier. Those two and Abacadabras are the only ones that provide any kind of viable alternative. Everything else has already proven to be well short of her.

As a slight aside, is there a danger here of framing our thinking on the prices in the market rather than what we think will happen? I know I can be guilty of it. What I mean by that is, surely it's better to accept the obvious, that with her 7lb allowance it is highly unlikely that anything else will be good enough to beat her, and therefore any other bets are just playing for places.

If you haven't got her at early prices it's better to accept her price and use her for multis, and/or find horses pre-Festival to roll-up onto her to boost her price.

FWIW I've done both of those things and have the other three backed as alternatives with the place part running for me, or as huge prices if something happens to her. I think I've pretty much got the race covered, and if I don't have a good result from the race it'll be because of something genuinely left-field.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Right now my only a/p bets for the race are Aramon 33/1 and Main Fact 66/1 but the latter was a bit of a brain fart since I failed to check what trip he'd been racing over! Maybe at least the place money in the Stayers' (50/1) will spray that with some Oust.

 

[Slim]

Antepost I have Epatante 9/2, Abacadabras 10/1, Saint Roi 33/1 and 25/1, and Saldier at 25/1.

I think Epatante will win, and two of the other three will fill the places. Last season I backed Epatante too. I did that because I could no longer ignore the blindingly obvious. She was easily the most likely winner and therefore she was the value. I think the first time I backed her she was only 4/1, and I still backed her again on the day at 2/1.

This season, if I didn't have the antepost bet, and specifically the 9/2 about Epatante (plus several multis at that price and at 4/1), I'd be really hopeful that one of the others at a bigger price could bridge the gap because I'd want a viable bet. I certainly wouldn't be backing Epatante now in a single at 6/4, I'd want the each way value and I'd be backing Saint Roi, and probably Saldier. Those two and Abacadabras are the only ones that provide any kind of viable alternative. Everything else has already proven to be well short of her.

As a slight aside, is there a danger here of framing our thinking on the prices in the market rather than what we think will happen? I know I can be guilty of it. What I mean by that is, surely it's better to accept the obvious, that with her 7lb allowance it is highly unlikely that anything else will be good enough to beat her, and therefore any other bets are just playing for places.

If you haven't got her at early prices it's better to accept her price and use her for multis, and/or find horses pre-Festival to roll-up onto her to boost her price.

FWIW I've done both of those things and have the other three backed as alternatives with the place part running for me, or as huge prices if something happens to her. I think I've pretty much got the race covered, and if I don't have a good result from the race it'll be because of something genuinely left-field.

The assumption that she just wins this race amuses me no end. She won a bag of shite of a race last year and is now 6/4 to beat two second season hurdlers with a hell of a lot of upside. She should have been 4/9 to win that Newcastle race where she just had to show up. The market isn't priced right now in my opinion.

 

[Maruco]

I wouldn't back her at the price but odds against is surely fair enough. Currently the others have everything to prove and a very big ratings gap to bridge, and the list of viable contenders is getting shorter. Before last weekend only four horses have credentials as possibles, with everything else already proven to not be good enough.

Goshen you can now strike off. Saldier is still to see a racecourse this season. Abacadabras has not improved anything like enough and there are doubts about him seeing his races through. Saint Roi is the only genuine backable alternative. On what he's done he has to improve 13lbs to beat her. He's had 5 hurdle runs and he remains unexposed.

She's only had 7 runs though and she too is still entitled to improve. She won unextended last year and if she had to battle she is probably worth another couple of pounds, so I'm comfortable that with her mares allowance whatever beats her will need to run to 171-172 as a minimum, so that's 15lbs Saint Roi needs to find in 12 weeks.

I'd say on everything we know, and everything we can reasonably predict she at 6/4 and him at 8/1 are both okay prices. If she was 5/4 and he was 6/1 I suspect the money would start to dry up. That might change after their next runs of course.

 

[Desert Orchid]

The assumption that she just wins this race amuses me no end. She won a bag of shite of a race last year and is now 6/4 to beat two second season hurdlers with a hell of a lot of upside. She should have been 4/9 to win that Newcastle race where she just had to show up. The market isn't priced right now in my opinion.

How would you price the race right now?

I agree it wasn't a great renewal she won. According to my records, I only had two bets in the race: Thomas Darby (40/1 a/p nr) and Cornerstone Lad (33/1 ew) so I couldn't have fancied the market leaders too strongly although I always liked Sharjah as a contender and was sick when he came out and won at Galway (which I don't follow closely).

I must have had a doubt about whether she was value last season but she proved herself emphatically on the day and certainly was visually impressive at Newcastle. She was entitled to beat them as she did but it reaffirmed the impression from March.

So far, while accepting some of the second-season challengers can improve, she doesn't appear to have anything better than Sharjah, a low-mid 160s horse who needs decent ground, to beat again.

 

[Slim]

How would you price the race right now?

I would be 9/2 Saint Roi until his next run proves otherwise. And to be controversial I would throw in that I'm not convinced Epatante proved last year that she is at her best at the festival. She was favourite and won by default.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Isn't that just ducking one horse?

If you had full responsibility for a bookmaking firm would you offer, say, 5/2 Epatante and take every bet request at that price up to your corporate max?

I ask in a theoretical context in which if someone offers me 6/4 heads or tails on the outcome of a coin toss I should just keep taking it for as long as it is offered.

 

[Slim]

Isn't that just ducking one horse?

If you had full responsibility for a bookmaking firm would you offer, say, 5/2 Epatante and take every bet request at that price up to your corporate max?

I ask in a theoretical context in which if someone offers me 6/4 heads or tails on the outcome of a coin toss I should just keep taking it for as long as it is offered.

I have the likely runners currently being bet to a book of 81.46% so I wouldn't want to lay her very big. The value is in smashing Saint Roi e/w.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I don't know if it just didn't register with me or if I never knew (age and all that) but I couldn't have told you Aramon was out for the season.

Back to square one for me now...

 

[Slim]

I don't know if it just didn't register with me or if I never knew (age and all that) but I couldn't have told you Aramon was out for the season.

Back to square one for me now...

I half missed it myself when it was announced. I think 8 runners is the most we will get bar a few days out connections declaring.

Gavin Lynch has pointed out that if Goshen runs and they makes the running as promised by Gary Moore it will set the race up perfect. So we could see s big rating put up and that doesn't have to be the mare.

 

[Grasshopper]

Race could be fu*cked if Goshen doesn’t run/make the pace. Practically the first dozen in the betting all want something to aim at.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Chantry House wasn’t sacrificed here, to give Epatante and Saint Roi a lead.

 

[Euronymous]

I would be 9/2 Saint Roi until his next run proves otherwise. And to be controversial I would throw in that I'm not convinced Epatante proved last year that she is at her best at the festival. She was favourite and won by default.

That's a great point. She had a much better trip through the race than Sharjah. I think she's way more take-on-able than either Shishkin or Envoi Allen.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Just watched the Bula again.

I imagine the air around hendo would be quite blue today when he saw that Verdana B has been left on 151. The way NdB appeared to go out of his way to make sure she finished well behind the main group after cruising into it on ground she wouldn't have liked had handicap plot written all over it.

As an aside, Solo came down to 144 after last week's tame finish. He's now 2lbs below the mark off which Pic D'Orhy, rated 8lbs lower than Solo when they ran in their respective Triumph Hurdles, won the Betfair back in Feb. I'm entirely convinced that is the plan for Solo.

 

[Slim]

You won't like this but there has to be a chance they step Verdana Blue up in trip. One more run to get the last few lbs off then up in trip for the Coral Cup.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Yes, it was the Coral Cup I had in mind.

Hendo often puts more than one away for it.

 

[Slim]

Yes, it was the Coral Cup I had in mind.

Hendo often puts more than one away for it.

Ah! You are well ahead of me! His speed looks blunted and running him over such an extreme distance at Ascot was a fair sign his 2m days were over. They'll be well pissed they didn't get another 3lb discount for Saturday.

 

[Double J]

I have the likely runners currently being bet to a book of 81.46% so I wouldn't want to lay her very big. The value is in smashing Saint Roi e/w.

1.6 for the place as the bookies criminally offering 1/5 of the odds on all races for the places.

All summer I’ve had Saint Roi as my main fancy, be tough to give Epatante 7 pounds though. One thing that does encourage me, is the way everyone talks about Saint Roi.

If he wins next time out and does it well, what price does he go? 7/2?

 

[Tincan]

I have the likely runners currently being bet to a book of 81.46% so I wouldn't want to lay her very big. The value is in smashing Saint Roi e/w.

Do you think Saint Roi hurdles well enough?

You can tell hes got the engine and turn of foot but his jumping worries me.

Possibly blinkers may help on the big day?

 

[Slim]

Do you think Saint Roi hurdles well enough?

You can tell hes got the engine and turn of foot but his jumping worries me.

Possibly blinkers may help on the big day?

Willie rarely goes for blinkers and I would be surprised if he did. I've no concern with his jumping.

 

[tiggers1972]

Ah! You are well ahead of me! His speed looks blunted and running him over such an extreme distance at Ascot was a fair sign his 2m days were over. They'll be well pissed they didn't get another 3lb discount for Saturday.

I would have thought Champagne Platinum was the stables horse for the Coral Cup.

 

[Maruco]

I would have thought Champagne Platinum was the stables horse for the Coral Cup.

I agree. He's one of those horses that JP has unfinished business with. I also wondered whether they might try to qualify him for the Pertemps given his mark. Surely they think he wants a trip now.

 

[Slim]

All the JP winners last year were unexposed horses on a steep upward curve. These road to Ben Haslam horses I'm not too interested in.

 

[tiggers1972]

Champagne Platinum isn't a Ben Haslam horse Slim.