The Road to the Grand National 2010

I really like Snowy Morning off less than 11st. He's come down 3lbs since the Hennessy even though he's been running ok.

I think Snowy Morning's best chance has gone (2 years ago when 2nd or 3rd?)

Isn't Jayo a novice this year or a 2nd year? i dont think he would stay and also question whether he jumps well enough
 
absolutely. wouldnt be surprised if the 2 judith wilson runners will get in, making two much better horses miss out. they're still being controversial owners aren't they?
 
I agree that he has been handicapped with a chance, but I just wonder if he as good as when he was placed 2 years ago
 
He was running well first time out in the Hennessy until running out of puff. Since then he has been running over shorter trips.

In 08 he was a second season chaser - they have poor records in the National.
In 09 he carried 11-8.
This looks like his best opportunity to me.
 
Also worry about his jumping, i mean fair play hes got round both times at aintree but last year he made lots of errors. He's a very honest horse but I think there are better handicapped or less exposed horses than he.
 
Big Fella Thanks for me. Am on at 25/1. He ran a cracking race last year as a 7 year old, and we all know the record they have in the race. It was a great effort to finish 6th as a novice, and he can only benefit from that experience this time around. He was ridden by Christian Williams last year, and he did make a few jumping errors, fiddling some of the fences before making quite a serious error at the 4th last. He was moving into contention at that stage, but just got a bit tired on the run-in. Hopefully Ruby will take the ride this time around, though I guess he's likely to plump for Tricky Trickster, who's age and inexperience gives him zero chance ;-) The experience of last year will have been invaluable, and horses often go back and perform much better once they know what it is all about. He has only had 8 runs over fences so is still very inexperienced, but to me that is more a positive than a negative, as it highlights just how much improvement there is in him, and just what a good effort last year’s 6th was. I think he's been given a very fair weight, and granted a clear round is sure to go close. Provided he turns up fresh and well on the day, I can see him going off at around the 8/1 or 10/1 mark. He'll definitely do for me.
 
Cerium? In fairness, he ran well last year to finish 5th. Maybe the Wilsons will have a horse with a legitimate chance for a change.
 
I am not sure Gone To Lunch is the type to take to the Aintree fences at all.

They said the same about Last Suspect, Rhyme N Reason, Maori Venture etc etc. Sometimes Aintree just wakes them up.

The one point I would disagree entirely with is that it never anybody's race. Most years you can narrow it down to a single-figure list. Then it's any one of those. It's been one of my most successful punting races for nearly 40 years.
 
Especially as he hasn't the brains to work out that the horse actually is rated 149!!

Well, yes, but Alberta's Run is officially rated 163 and is getting in on 158. I think his point is (however misguided): why is Alberta's Run getting 5lbs off, and not WoA?
 
Well, yes, but Alberta's Run is officially rated 163 and is getting in on 158. I think his point is (however misguided): why is Alberta's Run getting 5lbs off, and not WoA?
Even then, he must know that the very highest rated horses are theoretically well treated due to the handicapper's belief that big weights are nearly impossible to carry in the National. Everything can't be 5lb well in!
 
Any ideas on the cut off point at this stage?

Got quite a few selections around the 65-70 mark on the list (10-7ish) and getting a little bit worried here :(
 
Is Notre Pere likely to line up? He's the sort of horse who could go close under top weight. He jumps great and if it comes up on the soft side I think he'd be a terrific each way bet.
 
I think if the ground turned up soft then Notre Pere would run. However if its typical ground national (good, maybe good to soft) when I would doubt if notre pere would run.

In regards to the cut off point, the bottom weight has been around a mark of 140 so if the horse is above that then it might sneak in.
 
I think if the ground turned up soft then Notre Pere would run. However if its typical ground national (good, maybe good to soft) when I would doubt if notre pere would run.

In regards to the cut off point, the bottom weight has been around a mark of 140 so if the horse is above that then it might sneak in.
Odds on that the cut off will be on 10-7.
 
Isn't 10-7 around the 140 mark at the moment anyway? I doubt if it would go any lower than 10-5 for the bottom weight. doesn't seem to now seeing as the weights are so condensed
 
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