The Road to the Grand National 2010

Justin Redman said:
Isn't 10-7 around the 140 mark at the moment anyway? I doubt if it would go any lower than 10-5 for the bottom weight. doesn't seem to now seeing as the weights are so condensed
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Didn't mean to look as if I was arguing. 140 is 10-8 which is pretty close. I've simply gone through the race and added the probables up (very scientific - add percentage likelihood of running for each horse and stop when you get to 4000)!
 
Haha i rather like that scientific approach! So you reckon around 10-8 will just get in? That would rule out quite a lot of good horses then :(

And sorry I knew you weren't arguing! I mis-typed the way I was meant to say it!
 
Incredibly sound form, Dessie - the only consonants on his impressive PtP and chase form are an 'F' in his first, and a PU in the last in 22 outings. Otherwise, this horse gets round and has enough wins and placings to convince me he'll do so again, and shouldn't be discounted. Price was around 40s, not sure what today after we've mentioned him - probably 11-10 now! :lol:
 
Fair comment, Justin. He hasn't been over National-type stuff and that'll be an unknown, although he's handled Sandown and some quite rolling courses, so presumably stays well balanced. What I think we should assume (although the old saying is that 'assume' makes an ass out of u and me!) that horses who haven't taken them on, will be schooled over imitations at home. You sure wouldn't want to surprise them on the day!
 
Haha this is true. i mean if he handles the course and fences then hes got a great chance based on 2nd in the scottish national last year if im not mistaken?
 
Yes, that's right. My fear for him is the ground - he was never going in the Welsh National, when he was PU. It was Heavy and that doesn't seem to be his ground at all. But, if the ground's no worse than GS, he has stamina and accuracy, which is what the GN is all about. Plenty of others to consider, but he's a lively enough e/w.
 
I started my portfolio on the race this evening. The two main bets so far are Gone To Lunch (in anticipation of a good show tomorrow) and State Of Play, with small amounts at l-o-n-g odds on Cloudy Lane and Ballyfitz.
 
WTF?!?!?!

Coral have apparently shortened no fewer than 10 of the first 15 in their list, including every single one of the first six.

Also, it looks like War Of Attrition won't run. Only two firms (plus Betfair) are quoting it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Also, it looks like War Of Attrition won't run. Only two firms (plus Betfair) are quoting it.
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Mo,

why in the name of God are you using oddschecker as a guide? None of the firms have quoted WOA because they either don't want to be accused of profiteering on a horse listed as doubtful, or they have odds compilers as slow as Mouse Morris. I fully expect a climbdown from connections within the week.
 
Nice win for Vic Venturi today at Fairyhouse with Black Appalachi staying on well for second.

A very disappointing run from Notre Pere who seemed to tire very badly before unseating his jockey at the last.
 
War Of Attrition doesn't run because Mouse Morris believes that he has been harshly handicapped! Don't quite know where his mind is! A Gold Cup winner given a rating of 149 in a Grand National. Talk about being well handicapped!
 
I was very taken with Vic Venturi yesterday. I believe he's improved a good deal and could be interesting in some of the softer Irish graded chases next season...they've obviously been minding his handicap mark prior to now.
 
I just wonder if the ground will be soft enough (as is the case with most Irish horses these days). But he is interesting because now hes going to be well in at the weights for the National
 
What do you think of Ballyholland's chances? I have a Co Down connection so would be grateful of your opinions.
 
A good run from Arbor Supreme at Leopardstown. Looks to be coming into form and stayed on really well. At 10-8 he could be touch and go to get a run at Aintree though.
 
About Ballyholland, main doubt would probably be the trip. I don't think he has run further than 3 miles and also the races that he has been winning have been a lot weaker than the National. But I think he can take his chance in it.
 
I really fancy Vic Venturi. Each way 5 places with Bet365 is the place to start. If Ruby rides Big Fella Thanks God bless anyone taking single figure prices. Everytime I see that horse run he is on and off the bridle, hardly the type for Aintree.
 
He ran well in the race last year though and both he and State of Play have a nice pull in the weights with Mon Mome. As ever bookies and punters are over-reacting to Tricky Trickster's poor Festival run. He was never gonna have a prayer in that race but will stay all day at Aintree. Amazing to think he is a bigger price now for the Grand National than he was for the Gold Cup.
 
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