The Road to the Grand National 2010

Big Fella Thanks is going to be far too short. Single figure price is crazy. a pull at weights with Mon Mone is fair enough but there are plenty of lenient marks in there the most obvious to me being Vic Venturi.
 
But running as well as he did in the race last year at such a young age was a huge plus for his chances now. The race Vic won at the course in the Autumn looked really poor to me.
 
It may well have been a poor Beechers but I would fancy him anyway. Was he not 3rd or 4th to Revillez in a hot Jeweson in his novice year? He has always been a classy type and I think off his mark he is the one to beat at Aintree. His last run left a deep impression. Before it I though he might run very well but after the race he was a must bet. If anyone wants a match bet with Big Fella Thanks Im happy to oblige at Evs.
 
Maljimar would oblige on many of the stats if McCoy hadn't wrestled Witchita Lineman up against him at Cheltenham last year.. He'll do for me.
 
I expected Backstage to run a little better today as it's so close to the National but then the ground was heavy.
 
Gearoid said:
Big Fella Thanks is going to be far too short. Single figure price is crazy. a pull at weights with Mon Mone is fair enough but there are plenty of lenient marks in there the most obvious to me being Vic Venturi.
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But being on at 25/1 for a rather large sum would be nice ;)
 
I see Amberleigh House is the favourite National winner of the last ten years in the current poll over at the RP site. Words fail me.
 
Was watching the replays of last years race on RUK on Good Friday and can't get out of my head how well Black Appalachi was going when he unseated O'Regan in very soft fashion at second Becher's. Though disappointing to see he's only about 12/1. Though I dare say the stats boys couldn't have him on weight or age!

Was also interesting to see how many were still in contention at that point in the race in comparison to when they were showing the Graham Lee Greatest Race feature in which he chooses Amberleigh House. There's only about 5 that can win at second Becher's that year, whereas there must have been 20 in with a chance last year.
 
imagine said:
Character Building sold to the Thompsons of Cheveley Park according to RP site.
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They bought Party Politics right before his national win too. Got to feel a bit sorry for Jamie Codd, he'll now be replaced by a professional.
 
Yes. ( well, I dont see a huge problem,for what my twopennethworth is worth !!) Better than a lot of the others,anyway!!

Im suprised King Johns Castle is the price he is - why shouldnt I be backing him - have I missed something???

(answer - probably!!)
 
Obviously it's not guaranteed but you take Wichita Lineman out of the race at the Festival last year and it wouldn't be as much of an issue. He's run well off a similar mark and 40+ on the machine is a very fair price. Top trainer and been laid out for it. He's one of the five on my short list along with Big Fella, Tricky Trickster, State of Play and The Package.


trudij said:
Im suprised King Johns Castle is the price he is - why shouldnt I be backing him - have I missed something???

(answer - probably!!)
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Doesn't appear to have any form since his second a couple of years back.
 
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Cheers Euro. Id had a thought about his out of formness,but was still a bit suprised !!

think ive done all my betting now - and seem to have covered most of them at various times since the market was opened :rolleyes: !!!
 
KJC is very well handicapped on his second to Comply Or Die two years ago. He hasn't run much since but if they get him to the race in the same form as in 2008 he'd have serious shout.
 
He got 'a leg' after 2008, I think, so you'd have to be a bit worried about him. Not always the keenest horse when it came to go on and winning his race either, but travelled like a dream in 2008. Fact is, McCoy could have ridden him if he'd wanted, though...and you would suggest that would indicate he's not the force of old
 
I've now collated my figures (at long last!).

Last year I predicted we might have upwards of ten in contention turning for home so tight were they all at the top of the ratings and the ground so fair. This year we could have even more. As I said elsewhere, there is a school of thought that says they slowed up after the leaders fell in turn, allowing them to bunch up again, so if they keep at it all the way they might thin out a bit but it still looks the most competitive renewal of all time. Great credit must go to Phil Smith.

Last year I rated 15 on or above the norm on their best form of the previous season or two. That was more than in previous years, hence my prediction. This year no fewer than 22 are in a similar situation. On the attachment, these are highlighted in green. And they don't even include the ones with prospects for improvement into the range.

I'm already on State Of Play ante-post but Big Fella Thanks has very compelling claims and 7/1 might not be a bad price if he can improve for the step up from 2½ miles last time, when he put up a lifetime best over a trip thought to be too short to allow him to beat stablemate Pasco.

I'm surprised Paddy Brennan has opted for Irish Raptor over other stablemates. I backed him in the Topham last year but Paddy seemed adamant in the immediate post-race interview - one of those informative ones - that IR wouldn't stay the National trip. Maybe he's just going for the safe option.

While the stats will tell you it's almost impossible to win off more than 11st (11-2 if you read some articles) if there's one that might, I could see Madison Du Berlais giving it a right go if the pace isn't too lethal.

The are a number I'll be backing. One is Mr Pointment, which really intrigues me. Could he be another Silver Birch? He was a big fancy before when trained by Paul Nicholls, before moving to Ireland. He's only had one run this season - in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

More thoughts later.
 

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Desert Orchid said:
The are a number I'll be backing. One is Mr Pointment, which really intrigues me. Could he be another Silver Birch? He was a big fancy before when trained by Paul Nicholls, before moving to Ireland. He's only had one run this season - in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

More thoughts later.
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Mr Pointment hasn't moved to Ireland DO - sold to that excellent judge Mrs Wilson (!) and trained by Paul Murphy in Middleham. Unlike Cerium who ran a huge race for those connections last year, he looked positively horrible in the paddock for the Gold Cup.
 
Cheers, Rory. I reckon I was getting my Pauls & Murphys mixed up.

Mention of Cerium reminds me that, in my tables, Cerium is rated on his finishing position last year. Each ½pt represents about a length, which gives people an idea of how far in front of that kind of performance some of these could be.
 
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