The Road to the Grand National 2011

Bar the Bull

Bar the Bull

At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
9,534
Location
Llandubno, West Wales (very west)
So this race is just over two months away. There has been a bit of news on the race over the past few days.

The Package will miss the race. Ppe's 8yo, who had been 33-1 has suffered a setback, and is out for the season.

Black Apalachi is also out of the race, having been a best priced 25-1. He had finished second last season, having previously won the Becher Chase.

Current favourite Ballabriggs, who is 16-1 with Paddy Power, continued his preparation with an Ayr novice hurdle win on Monday. McCain's 10yo was last seen over fences when winning the Kim Muir off 140 (he is rated 150 now).

Paul Nicholls' Neptune Collonges showed his hand as a possible National horse with an all-the-way win at Cheltenham in the Argento chase on Saturday. Apparently a tilt at the National depends on his weight.

Entries for the race are announced on Wednesday, with the weights announced in (I think) two weeks.
 
Apparently State Of Play goes there without a run sine last year's race - not sure if that's a good thing or not.
 
He'd have a chance if they reduced the distance by half a mile. Hope Notre Pere gets an entry and it comes up bottomless. Not bothered about his weight.
 
It's on sportinglife.com. [he's gone to Barry Potts..who?...]
 
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Apparently trained Notre Pere before he moved to Dreaper's Grey.

A few French raiders in there - Quolibet and Or Noir De Somoza both have jumping concerns IMO but the Francois Cbottin trained Quezac De La Roque is of interest to me, won a XC Chase on his debut in that discipline last time out over 3 1/4m+ and likely to have the benefit of Phillip Carberry for the big one (providing he gets a run).

Like most Nationals it's a case of course form and wait and see about the weights
 
Have heard that Choc Thornton's very sweet on West End Rocker. Never heard of it myself but then I'm not a big jumps follower. Anybody got any thoughts on it?
 
Never thought of Alan King as a 'Grand National trainer'; always seems loathe to run his horses in the race, so if he's keen to run this one he must be a bit special. Must say, he's a horse that seemed to appear from nowhere this year [to me, that is] although he did run in the Scottish National, I believe. Seemed to be going for that bonus race, the second leg of which was cancelled due to the weather.
 
imagine said:
Have heard that Choc Thornton's very sweet on West End Rocker. Never heard of it myself but then I'm not a big jumps follower. Anybody got any thoughts on it?
Click to expand...

Won the Classic Chase at Warwick a couple of weeks ago in fairly good style.
 
Intriguingly, Or Noir de Somosa has rejoined David Pipe for a tilt at the Grand National.

He finished 4th of 5 behind Master Minded in the 2009 VC Chase in his only previous run in England, when he was last under the care of Pipe. Irish Stamp will be able to give a better perspective on his form, but he looks like a solid graded chaser, who has run well in some of the better French chases. When he ran in the Victor Chandler, he was rated 168 by the handicapper. Not sure how well he would stay, how well he will be treated or how good a jumper he is.
 
He's a decent horse Bar - just below top class over the channel in that he can take a decent 2m 6f Chase but when all stepped up in trip for the two Grade 1 open chases he seems to struggle.

Pipe sees him as an ideal National horse according to todays Post but the times he's tackled further than 3 miles the results are as follows:

23rd January 2011 - 5th
23rd October 2010 - Fell
8th November 2009 - 7th beaten 25 lengths
25th May 2008 - 9th beaten 31 lengths
27th May 2007 - Fell

He had a very good record as a 4yo in France but in Open company he's not looked quite so good though he has won two 2m 6f chases (listed most recently and a Grade 2) in the past 15 months so there is clearly ability there and was beaten just under 14 lengths by the three years younger Rubi Ball at Auteuil back in November, since then he's run twice at Pau finishing 2nd in a listed chase and 5th in a G2 over 3m 2.5f

The RP list his current OR as 168, which judged on last years renewal would have had him off near enough top weight which for me is a worry as despite his size the only time he's carried more than 11-0 in his career was when beaten in the VC Chase. His recent form ties him in closely with another of the French contenders in Quolibet (just behind ONDS last time out).

Personally I'd be more inclined to back Quezac De La Roque who won a XC Chase on his first start in that sphere over 3m 3f last time out and looks given that the type who'd adapt well to the Aintree fences. Wouldn't be worth a bet until closer to the time though.
 
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Daryl Jacob confirmed as keeping the ride on What A Friend for the national.

I know how much some on here respect them, Stan James & Bet365 are, I think, the first to go NRNB on the great race - Bet365 paying 5 places.
 
74 left in after today's declaration stage:

THE 2011 JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL

Horse Wgt Owner Trainer
1) DON'T PUSH IT (IRE) 11-10 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
2) TIDAL BAY (IRE) 11-09 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson
3) MIDNIGHT CHASE 11-08 Lady Clarke Neil Mulholland
4) SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 11-06 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
5) VIC VENTURI (IRE) 11-06 Seamus Dunne Dessie Hughes
6) WHAT A FRIEND 11-06 Ged Mason & Sir Alex Ferguson Paul Nicholls
7) MAJESTIC CONCORDE (IRE) 11-05 Dr Ronan Lambe Dermot Weld
8) OR NOIR DE SOMOZA (FR) 11-05 Filsal Stadeg Racing David Pipe
9) DOONEYS GATE (IRE) 11-04 Jackie Mullins Willie Mullins
10) SCOTSIRISH (IRE) 11-02 Double R Stables Syndicate Willie Mullins
11) BIG FELLA THANKS 11-01 Maggie Findlay Ferdy Murphy
12) BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 11-00 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain
13) THE TOTHER ONE (IRE) 11-00 Graham Roach Paul Nicholls
14) NICHE MARKET (IRE) 10-13 Graham Regan Paul Nicholls
15) THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 10-13 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins
16) BACKSTAGE (FR) 10-12 MPR & Capranny Syndicate Gordon Elliott
17) CHIEF DAN GEORGE (IRE) 10-12 Maurice Chapman Jimmy Moffatt
18) SILVER BY NATURE 10-12 Geoff Brown Lucinda Russell
19) NOTRE PERE (FR) 10-11 Tilly Conway Barry Potts
20) CALGARY BAY (IRE) 10-10 Camilla Radford Henrietta Knight
21) KILLYGLEN (IRE) 10-10 David McCammon Stuart Crawford
22) OSCAR TIME (IRE) 10-09 Robert Waley-Cohen/Sir Martin & S Broughton Martin Lynch
23) BALLYTRIM (IRE) 10-08 Violet O'Leary Willie Mullins
24) BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 10-08 Noel Glynn Noel Glynn
25) COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-08 David Johnson David Pipe
26) NEDZER'S RETURN (IRE) 10-08 William Elliott Gordon Elliott
27) NORTHERN ALLIANCE (IRE) 10-08 Irish Rover Syndicate Tony Martin
28) QUINZ (FR) 10-08 Andrew Cohen Philip Hobbs
29) QUOLIBET (FR) 10-08 J P McManus Jonjo O’Nell
30) GRAND SLAM HERO (IRE) 10-07 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Nigel Twiston-Davies
31) ROLL ALONG (IRE) 10-07 Bryan & Philippa Burrough Nigel Twiston-Davies
32) KING FONTAINE (IRE) 10-06 Trevor Hemmings Malcolm Jefferson
33) STATE OF PLAY 10-06 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams
34) HELLO BUD (IRE) 10-05 Seamus Murphy Nigel Twiston-Davies
35) IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 10-05 Westerly Breeze Syndicate Dessie Hughes
36) SANTA'S SON (IRE) 10-05 Douglas Pryde & Jim Beaumont Howard Johnson
37) WEST END ROCKER (IRE) 10-05 Barry Winfield & Tim Leadbeater Alan King
38) BLUESEA CRACKER (IRE) 10-04 Note The Link Syndicate James Motherway
39) CAN'T BUY TIME (IRE) 10-04 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
40) CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-04 Patricia Thompson John Quinn
41) ORNAIS (FR) 10-04 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls
42) PIRAYA (FR) 10-04 Terry Neill David Pipe
43) SURFACE TO AIR 10-04 Tim Urry Chris Bealby
44) THAT'S RHYTHM (FR) 10-04 Don't Tell Henry Martin Todhunter
45) ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 10-03 J P McManus Willie Mullins
46) FRANKIE FIGG (IRE) 10-03 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson
47) ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 10-03 Gigginstown House Stud Charlie Swan
48) OUR MONTY (IRE) 10-03 Colland Sand & Gravel Ltd Willie Mullins
49) ROYAL ROSA (FR) 10-03 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson
50) ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 10-02 Mr & Mrs Peter James Douglas Peter Bowen
51) GOLDEN KITE (IRE) 10-02 Dr Anthony Calnan Adrian Maguire
52) SKIPPERS BRIG (IRE) 10-02 Ashleybank Investments Limited Nicky Richards
53) BELON GALE (IRE) 10-01 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson
54) FAASEL (IRE) 10-01 Hush Hush Partnership David Pipe
55) LE BEAU BAI (FR) 10-01 Glass Half Full Richard Lee
56) MERIGO (FR) 10-01 Raymond & Anita Anderson Green Andrew Parker
57) PUTNEY BRIDGE 10-01 Louise Goldsworthy Keith Goldsworthy
58) ASKTHEMASTER (IRE) 10-00 Carrolle Wall Robert Tyner
59) DEV (IRE) 10-00 Liam Mulryan Gordon Elliott
60) GILES CROSS (IRE) 10-00 KCMS Partnership Victor Dartnall
61) SADDLERS STORM (IRE) 10-00 Billy Moffett/R T & J McLoughlin Tony Martin
62) STARZAAN (IRE) 10-00 Ben Arbib Hughie Morrison
63) AMBOBO (USA) 9-13 Deirdre Brassil Martin Brassil
64) DUERS (IRE) 9-13 Kate Kelly/Kate Ronan Paul Magnier
65) SAGALYRIQUE (FR) 9-13 Sir Robert Ogden Donald McCain
66) TOBY JUG 9-13 Paul & Caron Chapman & Sarah Humphrey Sarah Humphrey
67) GALANT NUIT (FR) 9-12 David Parry Ferdy Murphy
68) JUNIOR 9-12 Middleham Park Racing LI David Pipe
69) THE SAWYER (BEL) 9-12 David Fear Bob Buckler
70) BALLYFITZ 9-09 Fred & Wayne Mills Nigel Twiston-Davies
71) I'MONCLOUDNINE (IRE) 9-09 Fred Matthews Neil Mulholland
72) POMME TIEPY (FR) 9-09 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins
73) TREACLE (IRE) 9-04 Bjorn Nielsen Tom Taaffe
74) REGAL HEIGHTS (IRE) 9-02 Janet Heler Tom George
 
Does anyone know which of the 10.4 horses are more likely to get into the race? Is it based on current OR rating? I very much want Character Building to get a run again as I think he's in very good form this year.
 
This is rarely my race, much though I love it. So here's my three selections, to subsequently put a line through...

The Midnight Club - very lightly raced but a horse I've always liked since he was novice hurdling a couple of seasons ago.

Becauseicouldntsee - I was following him earlier in the season and he struck me as the sort to run well. Maybe I'm less keen than I was, though.

The third is Calgary Bay. I can't explain.
 
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