The Road to the Grand National 2018

I know it doesn't bother Danny as he said as much to me at his place but anyone contemplating backing Saint Are should be aware the Tom George yard has only had one winner since February although that was in the Supreme. Danny points out others have run well, well yeah but they ain't won.Nice price if he places though I guess.

I'm fast coming round to the idea Anibale Fly will win.
 
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I wrote these notes a couple of weeks ago. I tend to send the final edited version out by email to family/friends once the final decs are known.

Feel free to disagree :lol:

[TABLE="width: 707"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]Chances[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Minella Rocco[/TD]
[TD]Carries top weight because he is the class horse in the race, having finished runner-up in last year’s Gold Cup. No stamina concerns as he won the 4-miler at the 2016 Cheltenham Festival as a 6yo. Possibly well handicapped too having been dropped 4lbs this season but artificially softened ground will make weight-carrying much more difficult.[/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Blaklion[/TD]
[TD]Possibly made his effort too soon last year when powering on three out but although he’s improved this year he’s much higher in the weights therefore easily dismissed.[/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Anibale Fly[/TD]
[TD]Officially 9lbs well handicapped following his excellent third in the Gold Cup so in theory has a better chance than Minella Rocco. I think his Cheltenham run might flatter him and happy to dismiss his chances here.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]The Last Samuri[/TD]
[TD]Runner-up when officially 12lbs well in in 2016 but not so well handicapped last year or this time. Trained specifically for the race again and early form this season suggests he’s better than ever with the promise of more to come but struggled late in the race last time out at Cheltenham. May have had a problem that day so not hard to forgive but others look better handicapped. Almost guaranteed to get round.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Valseur Lido[/TD]
[TD]One of several runners for the owners of 2016 winner Rule The World, the odious O’Learys of Ryanair notoriety. 11lbs lower than the mark he was given for winning a class race early last season. Possibly plotted up for this since then and is the one high-weight to have a serious chance on his best form.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total Recall[/TD]
[TD]Fell before he got a chance to get competitive in the Gold Cup but unlikely to have got near the front two. Winner of a very high-class Ladbrokes (Hennessy) on his way up the ladder but vulnerable off his new mark unless he has improved a lot again. [/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alpha Des Obeaux[/TD]
[TD]Another O’Leary runner and, like the trainer’s 2016 winner Rule The World, a former high class staying hurdler. In hindsight, was probably facing an impossible task in attempting to give Total Recall 16lbs earlier in the season and no fewer than 17lbs better off here for seven lengths. Short-list material.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gold Present[/TD]
[TD]Easy to understand trainer Nicky Henderson’s frustrations with the ground management at the course since he’s desperate to win this race but his horses tend to prefer good ground. Gold Present has form in some of the best handicaps of the season and has been campaigned honestly which means he’s vulnerable at the weights.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Perfect Candidate[/TD]
[TD]I expected a big run from him last year but he struggled to go with the pace and was pulled up long before his stamina could kick in. As good as ever this year when beating Vicente at Cheltenham. Worth some sickness insurance in case he had a problem last year that we don’t know about. [/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cause Of Causes[/TD]
[TD]Becoming a National regular. Probably given too much to do when well beaten in Many Clouds’s National but was only 7yo then and is a much better horse now. Excellent second last year but is 3lbs higher now. Almost certain to be heavily backed but the suspicion is that his best chance is behind him.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shantou Flyer[/TD]
[TD]Had little chance last year as a 7yp but has improved again this season. Recent Cheltenham form looks good and 4lbs well in now. Will need to improve again for the marathon trip but not out of the question.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tenor Nivernais[/TD]
[TD]Had improved almost throughout his career but took his form to a surprising new level at Ascot on his first attempt at 3m last season with a devastating front-running effort. Was raised 10lbs after that but subsequent form sees him back down to his Ascot mark. Maybe that race bottomed him. Maybe he’s been plotted up for this as a fresher horse this season in which case he could still be considered 10lbs well in. [/TD]
[TD]*****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Carlingford Lough[/TD]
[TD]Like Minella Rocco and Cause of Causes, owned by ‘good guy’ JP McManus. Won the 2016 Irish Gold Cup and fourth in it last year. Also won the Punchestown Gold Cup in 2016 so plenty of back-class. No real form this season hence his drop in the handicap but possibly put away for this. [/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vicente[/TD]
[TD]Bought by Trevor Hemmings, owner of Many Clouds, Ballabriggs and Hedgehunter, before last year’s race in anticipation of a big run when he had a great chance at the weights but got no further than the first. Came out and landed a second successive Scottish National. Looked better than ever first time up at Cheltenham this season but has only gone up 4lbs in all. Better ground will improve his chances and definitely short-list material.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Go Conquer[/TD]
[TD]Has good form in some of the top handicaps and probably has more to come. Hampered out of contention in last year’s Topham but did complete so the fences shouldn’t be a problem. Short-list material if stamina can last.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tiger Roll[/TD]
[TD]O’Leary horse. Stamina assured and bang in form following Cheltenham win. Among the favourites but market position isn’t justified by the bare form of his races. Young enough to improve again but will need to[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Regal Encore[/TD]
[TD]More consistent this year. Got round last year without looking dangerous and is on the same mark here so an encore is on the cards.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vieux Lion Rouge[/TD]
[TD]Ran a fine race for a 7yo in 2016 and improved a bit last year but again weakened late on. Looks laid out for the race again but will need to improve again and stamina for the long run-in still a concern. Almost sure to give backers a run for their money.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rathvinden[/TD]
[TD]Won a slog in a bog for the Cheltenham four-miler but is technically a novice despite his advancing years. Doesn’t look handicapped to be involved.[/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Acapella Bourgeois[/TD]
[TD]Only 5/1 for last year’s RSA following a devastating win in the Grade 2 Ten Up at Navan but may have been flattered by that win and appears to have been found out since. Hard to know how good he is and has been campaigned over unsuitably short trips lately. Same owners as Total Recall and unlikely to be as fancied as that one.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Genie In Abottle[/TD]
[TD]Has plenty in its favour except its age (7yo) but that’s a big enough negative to rule him out completely.[/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Chase The Spud[/TD]
[TD]Resumed his upward curve first time out this season at Haydock and no stamina worries. Pulled up in both his subsequent runs following a big rise in the weights and might find himself in the same boat here.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Warriors Tale[/TD]
[TD]Trevor Hemmings-owned, looks nicely under the radar at longish odds given that he seems on a nice upward curve. Handicapped to go very close if his stamina holds out.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Seeyouat-midnight[/TD]
[TD]Just short of top class as a hurdler and novice chaser and has had training issues so didn’t rise in the handicap into his second season chasing and now potentially very well handicapped, not unlike Rule The World two years ago. Close third in the Scottish National in his novice season and weighted to reverse the form with winner Vicente. Along with Captain Redbeard has a serious chance of given Scotland back-to-back winners and a must for the short list.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]As De Mee[/TD]
[TD]Co-owned by Judy Dench but unlikely to see her appear on the winner’s podium. Improving young handicapper but not weighted to win unless it makes a lot of improvement.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gas Line Boy[/TD]
[TD]Valiant fifth last year and still improving this season but unlikely to do any better off his higher mark.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]The Dutchman[/TD]
[TD]Needed to win the Peter Marsh at Haydock in January to get high enough in the handicap to get into this race but ran away with it and went up 13lbs. Whether it was his new mark or not being over his exertions that led to his pulling up back there behind Yala Enki in the National Trial, he’ll need to improve again to defy his rating. [/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pleasant Company[/TD]
[TD]Remains lightly raced and was really travelling when stumbling last year. Two quiet runs this season suggest they’re targeting compensation seriously and he’s a much more backable price this time but the bottom line is that he lost a lot of ground on the first five from the last fence. It would be good to know if Ruby Walsh planned to ride this in preference to the much shorter Total Recall.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bellshill[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ucello Conti[/TD]
[TD]The choice of many pundits when the weights were announced last year and again this time and still fairly prominent in the market. Reasonably handicapped but looked a non-stayer to me in 2016 race and no reason to expect a much better show here. Hampered and unseated last year.[/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Saint Are[/TD]
[TD]Excellent third last year arguably putting up a career best performance. Races off the same mark here so entitled to run just as well. Still not handicapped to win but could do so if others fail to run to form. Genuinely strong place prospects. [/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Beeves[/TD]
[TD]Did the donkey work for The Last Samuri at Cheltenham last month before finishing seventh. Might be employed as a pacemaker again here but little chance of winning off this mark.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Raz De Maree[/TD]
[TD]Lovable old warrior. Keeping his form well this season despite hitting his teens in January and won the Welsh National. His 6lbs rise for that puts him on the same mark as last year when he was unlucky to unseat in an incident at Becher’s first time round. Has a similar chance to Saint Are.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I Just Know[/TD]
[TD]Improving young stayer but 14lbs rise for winning at Catterick while getting him into the race probably scuppers his chance from a handicapping perspective. Needs to improve another chunk but could do so.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Virgilio[/TD]
[TD]Very much under the radar for this but has as good a chance as anything if he stays. Only 3lbs higher than when an impressive winner of a good race here in May and looks to have been kept quiet for this. Has had wind surgery since his last run. [/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Baie Des Iles[/TD]
[TD]Consistent mud-loving staying mare who is handicapped to run respectably but her age (7yo) is very much against her. [/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maggio[/TD]
[TD]Lightly-raced teenager but not without a chance on his best form. Impressive winner here, but not over the National course, a couple of years ago at this meeting.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pendra[/TD]
[TD]Lightly raced in recent years. Got round two years ago but ultimately beaten an awful long way and unlikely to do much better off just a pound less but his best form could see him placed.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Buywise[/TD]
[TD]Seems to have got the hang of jumping fences at last but possibly in general decline. Got round in his own time behind Rule The World two years ago but his form at Cheltenham behind Un Temps Pour Tout last season would give him a serious chance.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Children’s List[/TD]
[TD]Only four chase runs and one point-to-point suggest this doesn’t have the necessary experience for a race like this. [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Houblon Des Obeaux[/TD]
[TD]All the signs point to his being in decline but undeniably ‘thrown in’ on his best form. 5lbs lower than when completing last year and really should have no chance. However, has three 164 performances on his CV and was off 160 in the 2016 race but bypassed it to take on Grade 1 company so no surprise if he were to win. Tried to give One For Arthur 15lbs at Warwick last January. OFA next time out won this race off 11lbs higher. HDO also ran well last year in the Midlands National despite an untidy round of jumping, trying to give Chase The Spud 14lbs so is now 19lbs better off for less than 10 lengths. The trainer’s Mon Mome won this at 100/1 the year after a well-beaten first attempt.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lord Windermere[/TD]
[TD]Won the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup having won the novices’ championship the year before. The received wisdom is that they were substandard races but he was never given a champion’s rating. Largely disappointing since his big win but jumped round last year although lost significant ground on the principals from the final fence, suggesting he didn’t stay. [/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Captain Redbeard[/TD]
[TD]Could be very interesting contender to give Scotland a second successive win. Chances aren’t obvious as he had to win at Haydock in December to go up enough to get into the race and beaten next time off this mark. However, his next run over hurdles was a long way better than anything he’d done previously and if he can translate that improvement back over fences he could be on a very steep curve, à la One For Arthur. [/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bless The Wings[/TD]
[TD]Better known as a cross-country horse these days but beaten a short-head in the 2016 Irish National. Didn’t take to the fences on his only previous visit here in the 2015 Topham and age likely to be catching up with him (13yo).[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Milansbar[/TD]
[TD]Grand old stayer when in the mood. Returned to his best form under Bryony Frost in the Warwick Classic, a win which got him the necessary rise to run here and if he lasts this extra distance should finish somewhere close to Saint Are.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Final Nudge[/TD]
[TD]Improving stayer, returned this season better than ever at Wincanton where his good run got him high enough for this. Possibly trained for this since then and travelled ominously well through the Welsh National until unable to go with the two older mudlarks from three out trying to give them weight. Gets weight from the winner Raz De Maree and entitled to turn the form around.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Double Ross[/TD]
[TD]Retains plenty of ability at age 12, keeping on well at Cheltenham for fourth place off this mark. Was running well off 150 two years ago when his saddle slipped, putting him out of the race. Proved he could have been second or third when an excellent third to Native River in the Hennessy and gets to race off 143 now. Missed the rest of last season after that and has presumably been trained to provide serious back-up to stablemate Blaklion.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Road To Riches[/TD]
[TD]Could this one write its own headline? Only six runs ago it was still rated 161 having been 167 when an excellent third to Coneygree in the 2015 Gold Cup. He was being trained for the 2016 Gold Cup when, much to his trainer’s annoyance, he was redirected to the shorter Ryanair Chase where he was third to Vaurout and Valseur Lido. He’s now 16lbs better off with Valseur Lido for a half-length. In the Punchestown Gold Cup less than six weeks later he was leading when falling two out, leaving Carlingford Lough to win. He’s now 10lbs better off with Carlingford Lough. He’s done nothing on the course since then but he’s been lightly raced and presumably has had issues. Or maybe he’s been put away for this. His early-career sudden improvement was seemingly due to a change in diet. Maybe they’ve had him on his old diet for a while![/TD]
[TD]*****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
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Having read through all of this years Des as it seems you've attached some views from last year. I only strongly disagree with 2 points. I'm a big fan Of Raz de Maree love the horse but literally would have zero chance here IMO. Not only does he have the rise from the Welsh nash it also had a 5lb claim from bowen and although I wouldn't normally calculate a claim into the reckoning I think you'd have to where Bowen is concerned. Raz stays all day but usually gets behind in races so that coupled with the rise, age and everything else as much as I love the horse I couldn't give it the faintest squeak here. It would literally take the race to fall apart 9not impossible) for him to plug on into 6th

I don't really see why you think Anibale Fly was flattered by Gold Cup form ? Maybe beaten distance wise yes as the front two had gone at it so to speak. However that's a bloody good Gold cup and the ground Anibale made from the last from the line he certainly wasn't stopping. I'm not keen on backing horses carrying big weights as a rule but I think Annibale has a great chance here. The only worry I'd have is how much the gold cup took out of him and coupled with a fairly short price are the only two reasons that I haven't invested a few sheckels on the opinion.

The rest of them though Des I don't think we are that far apart on our views although I'd probably be a bit more positive about Regal Encore.
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
Some of those at the bottom aren't running
Click to expand...

The original document used the template from last year's race, which I only realised after I posted it. I went back and deleted last year's runners but haven't been keeping up generally with what has been scratched. I'm assuming people who have been keeping track will ignore the likely non-runners.

Was typing this up while Danny was posting, obviously.
 
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Danny said:
I don't really see why you think Anibale Fly was flattered by Gold Cup form ?
Click to expand...

As you know, I went low with my Gold Cup ratings, as per my review:
3.30 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE (GRADE 1)(Class 1) Winner £369,822 18 runners 3m2f70y Soft ITV
[TABLE="width: 613"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.[/TD]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Trainer[/TD]
[TD]Jockey[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD] Native River [/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard [/TD]
[TD]Richard Johnson[/TD]
[TD]166 [/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD] Might Bite [/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD]
[TD]Nico de Boinville[/TD]
[TD]169 [/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]++[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD] Anibale Fly [/TD]
[TD]A J Martin [/TD]
[TD]Barry Geraghty[/TD]
[TD]159 [/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD] Road To Respect [/TD]
[TD]Noel Meade [/TD]
[TD]Sean Flanagan[/TD]
[TD]168 [/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD] Djakadam [/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins [/TD]
[TD]Mr PW Mullins[/TD]
[TD]162 [/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

“Take out Might Bite and this could be a good handicap.” This pre-race summary is the overriding context of my low ratings for this race. It was a wonderful spectacle at the time because the commentary made it sound like the two protagonists were serving up a savage pace. It seemed like we were witnessing one of the all-time great Gold Cups. In fact, it was anything but, although the winner’s new OR of 176 makes it look good. I won’t be at all surprised if in time we see that mark drop again.

Native River is a thoroughly admirable beast but he was rather beaten up here by Johnson in his determination to see off Might Bite on whom de Boinville showed commendable restraint when it was clear his partner had no answer to the heavy ground up the hill. This exaggerated the winner’s margin of victory as well as the third’s closing effort.

I can see where the handicapper gets his 176 for the winner from. Road To Respect and Djakadam have run relatively close to their marks and makes that possible. We also know Might Bite is top class. However, I’ve watched the race a few times now. The front two got to dictate their own pace on virgin ground. I suspect this seduced the others into thinking they must be going fast and as a result they were held up off a moderate pace against better horses so were always going to struggle to get into it. Djakadam has proved more than once he doesn’t stay this trip. He’s less likely to have stayed in this ground. He was in the group just behind the pace and probably ran as well as could be expected but I can’t have him running to his good ground best here, which is what Native River’s 176 implies. Definitly Red maybe had a harder race than it looked last time or maybe just didn’t fancy another slog in a bog. Either way, he was never running his race. It wasn’t the pace that beat him. Anibale Fly in third is a good handicapper, nothing more. He’s probably a few pounds better than his pre-race 159 rating but he’s the one who, for me, is a key guide to the form. He’s as close to Native River as he should have been. Road To Respect didn’t stay but it looks like he’s been taken as one of the key guides, which would make Native River’s 176 logical. I can’t have that.

Everything else was trying to come from poor positions off a moderate pace in ground being churned up ahead of them. Saphir Du Rheu probably got nearly the worst ride of the entire field. Not only was he held up but he was also kept wide, racing in the ground that had been badly churned up the previous day. Twiston-Davies was presumably riding to instructions as it was a carbon copy of the ride he gave the horse last year but that was on decent ground. I suspect the horse needs to see his fences and he was never going to be ridden in the pack so I also suspect Nicholls and Twiston-Davies had decided before the race they were just going to let him do what he could for a circuit before saving him for Aintree. It’s a ride I can understand but I cannot for the life of me understand the ride Edwulf got. I’m still angry about it.

So all in all, I’m going low with the bare ratings but I half-expect to adjust them upwards by a pound or two in the coming months but I’ll be surprised if I end up getting them near the ORs.
Click to expand...
 
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Yes but even with a cautious view you still have Anibale ahead of its mark and still on an upwards curve.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Captain Redbeard
[TD]Could be very interesting contender to give Scotland a second successive win. Chances aren’t obvious as he had to win at Haydock in December to go up enough to get into the race and beaten next time off this mark. However, his next run over hurdles was a long way better than anything he’d done previously and if he can translate that improvement back over fences he could be on a very steep curve, à la One For Arthur.
Click to expand...
I've had a vision this horse is one of the big gambles on the day. We'll see.
 
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really good stuff below

road to riches is fascinating alright because he's arguably the best horse in the race if they all ran to their peak

fear is that he's gone at the game, not convinced its a plot job as he has been backed in races when he dropped down the handicap and ran poorly

entirely possible that he's never been the same since that 2016 fall which was a real horror show

won't let him go unbacked but its possible he could bomb out completely. alpha des obeaux an ideal type too but similar to road to riches, would prob prefer ground to be decent enough in order to truly stay


Desert Orchid said:
I wrote these notes a couple of weeks ago. I tend to send the final edited version out by email to family/friends once the final decs are known.

Feel free to disagree :lol:

[TABLE="width: 707"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]Chances[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Minella Rocco[/TD]
[TD]Carries top weight because he is the class horse in the race, having finished runner-up in last year’s Gold Cup. No stamina concerns as he won the 4-miler at the 2016 Cheltenham Festival as a 6yo. Possibly well handicapped too having been dropped 4lbs this season but artificially softened ground will make weight-carrying much more difficult.[/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Blaklion[/TD]
[TD]Possibly made his effort too soon last year when powering on three out but although he’s improved this year he’s much higher in the weights therefore easily dismissed.[/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Anibale Fly[/TD]
[TD]Officially 9lbs well handicapped following his excellent third in the Gold Cup so in theory has a better chance than Minella Rocco. I think his Cheltenham run might flatter him and happy to dismiss his chances here.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]The Last Samuri[/TD]
[TD]Runner-up when officially 12lbs well in in 2016 but not so well handicapped last year or this time. Trained specifically for the race again and early form this season suggests he’s better than ever with the promise of more to come but struggled late in the race last time out at Cheltenham. May have had a problem that day so not hard to forgive but others look better handicapped. Almost guaranteed to get round.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Valseur Lido[/TD]
[TD]One of several runners for the owners of 2016 winner Rule The World, the odious O’Learys of Ryanair notoriety. 11lbs lower than the mark he was given for winning a class race early last season. Possibly plotted up for this since then and is the one high-weight to have a serious chance on his best form.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total Recall[/TD]
[TD]Fell before he got a chance to get competitive in the Gold Cup but unlikely to have got near the front two. Winner of a very high-class Ladbrokes (Hennessy) on his way up the ladder but vulnerable off his new mark unless he has improved a lot again. [/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alpha Des Obeaux[/TD]
[TD]Another O’Leary runner and, like the trainer’s 2016 winner Rule The World, a former high class staying hurdler. In hindsight, was probably facing an impossible task in attempting to give Total Recall 16lbs earlier in the season and no fewer than 17lbs better off here for seven lengths. Short-list material.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gold Present[/TD]
[TD]Easy to understand trainer Nicky Henderson’s frustrations with the ground management at the course since he’s desperate to win this race but his horses tend to prefer good ground. Gold Present has form in some of the best handicaps of the season and has been campaigned honestly which means he’s vulnerable at the weights.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Perfect Candidate[/TD]
[TD]I expected a big run from him last year but he struggled to go with the pace and was pulled up long before his stamina could kick in. As good as ever this year when beating Vicente at Cheltenham. Worth some sickness insurance in case he had a problem last year that we don’t know about. [/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cause Of Causes[/TD]
[TD]Becoming a National regular. Probably given too much to do when well beaten in Many Clouds’s National but was only 7yo then and is a much better horse now. Excellent second last year but is 3lbs higher now. Almost certain to be heavily backed but the suspicion is that his best chance is behind him.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shantou Flyer[/TD]
[TD]Had little chance last year as a 7yp but has improved again this season. Recent Cheltenham form looks good and 4lbs well in now. Will need to improve again for the marathon trip but not out of the question.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tenor Nivernais[/TD]
[TD]Had improved almost throughout his career but took his form to a surprising new level at Ascot on his first attempt at 3m last season with a devastating front-running effort. Was raised 10lbs after that but subsequent form sees him back down to his Ascot mark. Maybe that race bottomed him. Maybe he’s been plotted up for this as a fresher horse this season in which case he could still be considered 10lbs well in. [/TD]
[TD]*****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Carlingford Lough[/TD]
[TD]Like Minella Rocco and Cause of Causes, owned by ‘good guy’ JP McManus. Won the 2016 Irish Gold Cup and fourth in it last year. Also won the Punchestown Gold Cup in 2016 so plenty of back-class. No real form this season hence his drop in the handicap but possibly put away for this. [/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vicente[/TD]
[TD]Bought by Trevor Hemmings, owner of Many Clouds, Ballabriggs and Hedgehunter, before last year’s race in anticipation of a big run when he had a great chance at the weights but got no further than the first. Came out and landed a second successive Scottish National. Looked better than ever first time up at Cheltenham this season but has only gone up 4lbs in all. Better ground will improve his chances and definitely short-list material.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Go Conquer[/TD]
[TD]Has good form in some of the top handicaps and probably has more to come. Hampered out of contention in last year’s Topham but did complete so the fences shouldn’t be a problem. Short-list material if stamina can last.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tiger Roll[/TD]
[TD]O’Leary horse. Stamina assured and bang in form following Cheltenham win. Among the favourites but market position isn’t justified by the bare form of his races. Young enough to improve again but will need to[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Regal Encore[/TD]
[TD]More consistent this year. Got round last year without looking dangerous and is on the same mark here so an encore is on the cards.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vieux Lion Rouge[/TD]
[TD]Ran a fine race for a 7yo in 2016 and improved a bit last year but again weakened late on. Looks laid out for the race again but will need to improve again and stamina for the long run-in still a concern. Almost sure to give backers a run for their money.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rathvinden[/TD]
[TD]Won a slog in a bog for the Cheltenham four-miler but is technically a novice despite his advancing years. Doesn’t look handicapped to be involved.[/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Acapella Bourgeois[/TD]
[TD]Only 5/1 for last year’s RSA following a devastating win in the Grade 2 Ten Up at Navan but may have been flattered by that win and appears to have been found out since. Hard to know how good he is and has been campaigned over unsuitably short trips lately. Same owners as Total Recall and unlikely to be as fancied as that one.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Genie In Abottle[/TD]
[TD]Has plenty in its favour except its age (7yo) but that’s a big enough negative to rule him out completely.[/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Chase The Spud[/TD]
[TD]Resumed his upward curve first time out this season at Haydock and no stamina worries. Pulled up in both his subsequent runs following a big rise in the weights and might find himself in the same boat here.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Warriors Tale[/TD]
[TD]Trevor Hemmings-owned, looks nicely under the radar at longish odds given that he seems on a nice upward curve. Handicapped to go very close if his stamina holds out.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Seeyouat-midnight[/TD]
[TD]Just short of top class as a hurdler and novice chaser and has had training issues so didn’t rise in the handicap into his second season chasing and now potentially very well handicapped, not unlike Rule The World two years ago. Close third in the Scottish National in his novice season and weighted to reverse the form with winner Vicente. Along with Captain Redbeard has a serious chance of given Scotland back-to-back winners and a must for the short list.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]As De Mee[/TD]
[TD]Co-owned by Judy Dench but unlikely to see her appear on the winner’s podium. Improving young handicapper but not weighted to win unless it makes a lot of improvement.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gas Line Boy[/TD]
[TD]Valiant fifth last year and still improving this season but unlikely to do any better off his higher mark.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]The Dutchman[/TD]
[TD]Needed to win the Peter Marsh at Haydock in January to get high enough in the handicap to get into this race but ran away with it and went up 13lbs. Whether it was his new mark or not being over his exertions that led to his pulling up back there behind Yala Enki in the National Trial, he’ll need to improve again to defy his rating. [/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pleasant Company[/TD]
[TD]Remains lightly raced and was really travelling when stumbling last year. Two quiet runs this season suggest they’re targeting compensation seriously and he’s a much more backable price this time but the bottom line is that he lost a lot of ground on the first five from the last fence. It would be good to know if Ruby Walsh planned to ride this in preference to the much shorter Total Recall.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bellshill[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ucello Conti[/TD]
[TD]The choice of many pundits when the weights were announced last year and again this time and still fairly prominent in the market. Reasonably handicapped but looked a non-stayer to me in 2016 race and no reason to expect a much better show here. Hampered and unseated last year.[/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Saint Are[/TD]
[TD]Excellent third last year arguably putting up a career best performance. Races off the same mark here so entitled to run just as well. Still not handicapped to win but could do so if others fail to run to form. Genuinely strong place prospects. [/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Beeves[/TD]
[TD]Did the donkey work for The Last Samuri at Cheltenham last month before finishing seventh. Might be employed as a pacemaker again here but little chance of winning off this mark.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Raz De Maree[/TD]
[TD]Lovable old warrior. Keeping his form well this season despite hitting his teens in January and won the Welsh National. His 6lbs rise for that puts him on the same mark as last year when he was unlucky to unseat in an incident at Becher’s first time round. Has a similar chance to Saint Are.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I Just Know[/TD]
[TD]Improving young stayer but 14lbs rise for winning at Catterick while getting him into the race probably scuppers his chance from a handicapping perspective. Needs to improve another chunk but could do so.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Virgilio[/TD]
[TD]Very much under the radar for this but has as good a chance as anything if he stays. Only 3lbs higher than when an impressive winner of a good race here in May and looks to have been kept quiet for this. Has had wind surgery since his last run. [/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Baie Des Iles[/TD]
[TD]Consistent mud-loving staying mare who is handicapped to run respectably but her age (7yo) is very much against her. [/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maggio[/TD]
[TD]Lightly-raced teenager but not without a chance on his best form. Impressive winner here, but not over the National course, a couple of years ago at this meeting.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pendra[/TD]
[TD]Lightly raced in recent years. Got round two years ago but ultimately beaten an awful long way and unlikely to do much better off just a pound less but his best form could see him placed.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Buywise[/TD]
[TD]Seems to have got the hang of jumping fences at last but possibly in general decline. Got round in his own time behind Rule The World two years ago but his form at Cheltenham behind Un Temps Pour Tout last season would give him a serious chance.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Children’s List[/TD]
[TD]Only four chase runs and one point-to-point suggest this doesn’t have the necessary experience for a race like this. [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Houblon Des Obeaux[/TD]
[TD]All the signs point to his being in decline but undeniably ‘thrown in’ on his best form. 5lbs lower than when completing last year and really should have no chance. However, has three 164 performances on his CV and was off 160 in the 2016 race but bypassed it to take on Grade 1 company so no surprise if he were to win. Tried to give One For Arthur 15lbs at Warwick last January. OFA next time out won this race off 11lbs higher. HDO also ran well last year in the Midlands National despite an untidy round of jumping, trying to give Chase The Spud 14lbs so is now 19lbs better off for less than 10 lengths. The trainer’s Mon Mome won this at 100/1 the year after a well-beaten first attempt.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lord Windermere[/TD]
[TD]Won the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup having won the novices’ championship the year before. The received wisdom is that they were substandard races but he was never given a champion’s rating. Largely disappointing since his big win but jumped round last year although lost significant ground on the principals from the final fence, suggesting he didn’t stay. [/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Captain Redbeard[/TD]
[TD]Could be very interesting contender to give Scotland a second successive win. Chances aren’t obvious as he had to win at Haydock in December to go up enough to get into the race and beaten next time off this mark. However, his next run over hurdles was a long way better than anything he’d done previously and if he can translate that improvement back over fences he could be on a very steep curve, à la One For Arthur. [/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bless The Wings[/TD]
[TD]Better known as a cross-country horse these days but beaten a short-head in the 2016 Irish National. Didn’t take to the fences on his only previous visit here in the 2015 Topham and age likely to be catching up with him (13yo).[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Milansbar[/TD]
[TD]Grand old stayer when in the mood. Returned to his best form under Bryony Frost in the Warwick Classic, a win which got him the necessary rise to run here and if he lasts this extra distance should finish somewhere close to Saint Are.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Final Nudge[/TD]
[TD]Improving stayer, returned this season better than ever at Wincanton where his good run got him high enough for this. Possibly trained for this since then and travelled ominously well through the Welsh National until unable to go with the two older mudlarks from three out trying to give them weight. Gets weight from the winner Raz De Maree and entitled to turn the form around.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Double Ross[/TD]
[TD]Retains plenty of ability at age 12, keeping on well at Cheltenham for fourth place off this mark. Was running well off 150 two years ago when his saddle slipped, putting him out of the race. Proved he could have been second or third when an excellent third to Native River in the Hennessy and gets to race off 143 now. Missed the rest of last season after that and has presumably been trained to provide serious back-up to stablemate Blaklion.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Road To Riches[/TD]
[TD]Could this one write its own headline? Only six runs ago it was still rated 161 having been 167 when an excellent third to Coneygree in the 2015 Gold Cup. He was being trained for the 2016 Gold Cup when, much to his trainer’s annoyance, he was redirected to the shorter Ryanair Chase where he was third to Vaurout and Valseur Lido. He’s now 16lbs better off with Valseur Lido for a half-length. In the Punchestown Gold Cup less than six weeks later he was leading when falling two out, leaving Carlingford Lough to win. He’s now 10lbs better off with Carlingford Lough. He’s done nothing on the course since then but he’s been lightly raced and presumably has had issues. Or maybe he’s been put away for this. His early-career sudden improvement was seemingly due to a change in diet. Maybe they’ve had him on his old diet for a while![/TD]
[TD]*****[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Click to expand...
 
Jambo said:
really good stuff below

road to riches is fascinating alright because he's arguably the best horse in the race if they all ran to their peak

fear is that he's gone at the game, not convinced its a plot job as he has been backed in races when he dropped down the handicap and ran poorly

entirely possible that he's never been the same since that 2016 fall which was a real horror show

won't let him go unbacked but its possible he could bomb out completely. alpha des obeaux an ideal type too but similar to road to riches, would prob prefer ground to be decent enough in order to truly stay
Click to expand...

I personally think the more the ground dry's the better his chance he's run on some really bad ground under fairly big weights. Light weight on better ground he might just enjoy the process a bit more. Although I'd probably hold the same overall view as yourself.
 
Yes, I saw that earlier.

How many horses have they bought just before the race in recent seasons, or even since Party Politics?

You also have to wonder how many horses do they make enquiries about before they settle on a purchase.

Trevor Hemmings does the same although I think he tends to buy them some way ahead of the race.

I remember Arthur Budge making what, according to my figures, must have been the stupidest ever purchase when he paid £100,000 for Joint Sovereignty, a 2.5-miler just because it had won the Mackeson or Massey-Ferguson. Whoever sold him that pup should have had months' worth of sleepless nights due to a heavy conscience.
 
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Danny said:
I personally think the more the ground dry's the better his chance he's run on some really bad ground under fairly big weights. Light weight on better ground he might just enjoy the process a bit more. Although I'd probably hold the same overall view as yourself.
Click to expand...

sorry if i didnt make it clear but that was my point too

better ground suits road to riches ..and alpha

wouldnt fancy either in a bog
 
Desert Orchid said:
How many horses have they bought just before the race in recent seasons, or even since Party Politics?

You also have to wonder how many horses do they make enquiries about before they settle on a purchase.

Trevor Hemmings does the same although I think he tends to buy them some way ahead of the race.
Click to expand...

I think Trevor Hemmings bought Vicente in the days leading up to last seasons National, only for him to fall at the first.
 
Double Ross the last guaranteed entry

4ugis5.jpg


Skybet going 6 places
 
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JP McManus' racing manager Frank Berry on Grand National riding plans: Barry Geraghty on Anibale Fly, Noel Fehily on Minella Rocco, Mark Walsh on Carlingford Lough and Richie McLernon on Regal Encore. Pendra is likely to run but no jockey yet.
 
Richie owes me a nut or two from his ride on Sunnyhill Boy in this a few years back.. hopefully he can bring home the bacon this time.
 
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