The Road to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2014

Bar the Bull

Bar the Bull

At the Start
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So we have 104 days left to the autumn highlight. After this race, eyes turn to the jumps.

Topics of conversation we can expect on this thread:
  1. The weight allowances enjoyed by 3yo's and by the fillies and mares.
  2. The impact of the draw.
  3. The Fabre preparation.
  4. How slowly run the trials are run / Wow look at that turn of pace in the Foy/Niel/whatever.
  5. How good the Japanese runners are / How much the Japanese are over-rated.
Here is the betting and the main concerns about the runners:

5/1 Australia.....how good are the middle distance 3yo colts? Is he better over 10f, a distance over which he has never raced?
6/1 Treve.....did she benefit from the 3yo fillies allowances? Is she injured. Has she trained on enough?
12/1 Just A Way....does he stay 12f? Is he likely to result in 40/1 Australia on the PMU?
12/1 Harp Star....does he stay 12f? Is he likely to result in 40/1 Australia on the PMU?
10/1 The Fugue....what about the ground? Will she run?
12/1 Epiphenea....Is he likely to result in 40/1 Australia
16/1 Kingston Hill....lack of class an issue?
16/1 Taghrooda....Will she benefit from the allowances? Is she a good filly in a poor division, or the real deal?
 
I love this thread, its the same every year.

It isn't just the WFA that is advantageous for 3yo, it's the typical prep the French give theirs for the race. I wouldn't touch a Ballydoyle 3yo for the Arc because they tend to be too busy over the summer. Although in saying that ROTW was given an Arc prep ast season (was that by design?) He just was not good enough.

I bet Flintshire initially because I figured on average 4/10 Arc renewals are run on good ground so at 40/1+ it's a chance worth taking. Problem is Fabre will in all likelihood over race him during the summer.

Treve has huge disadvantages to overcome. If she runs she won't have improved enough to offset the WFA and she won't have the same prep. Last year in late July she was in her box chilaxing, not running round Ascot in the King George. Hurricane Run and Montjeu both won the KG as 4yos but had nowt left for the Arc. The latter improved enough from 3 to 4 to overcome the lack of wfa but not enough to overcome the lack of an Arc prep.
 
Due to the 10f French Derby, the value often lies with identifying the top French 3yo colts now, before the GP de Paris comes around.

Thoughts?
 
Hamm said:
Due to the 10f French Derby, the value often lies with identifying the top French 3yo colts now, before the GP de Paris comes around.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Shamkiyr ran well enough in the Jockey club and has a 12f pedigree. 50s at Stan James is fair.
 
Hamm said:
Due to the 10f French Derby, the value often lies with identifying the top French 3yo colts now, before the GP de Paris comes around.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Ectot seems quite useful and although hasn’t performed past a mile yet looks a likely tough middle-distance colt. He hasn’t been seen out since April, so unless injured is probably being readied for a back-end campaign. Karakonti is probably more of a mile to 10 furlong colt. If a decent three-year-old in form emerges it will no doubt win. Eagle Top looked okay but I think people are probably getting carried away with him. Looks green and a bit awkward to me.

Treve is of course vulnerable now she has lost her wfa allowance.
 
A proper disgrace that this thread has only just been posted. Always the best thread on the forum. Can we agree now that we are not going to debate whether 3yos or fillies are advantaged or not and how significant the draw is? Done to death every year and also just as dull every year.

I'm with Hamm that the value is probably with the French trained three year olds heading to Longchamp on 13th July. I think Sea The Moon is interesting too and he runs in the Germany Derby in a fortnight I believe (30 on Betfair).

I'll do my best to take you through the Japanese contingent...

Harp Star - Three year old filly who won the 1000 Guineas trial and 1000 Guineas (broke race record) in incredibly impressive fashion. Exaggerated hold up tactics went wrong in the Oaks though when she got there too late to be defeated by her old rival Nuovo Record. She's bred for that trip though and suspect a jockey change might be in the pipeline. I took some 33 pre Guineas (after-timing a price, sorry) but you need your head looking at taking 12 (she is 40 on betfair though..._. She does definitely go for the race. last I heard they were running her in late August in a Group 2 in Hakodate so presumably not heading to the Vermeille first. Her bare form isn't good enough but neither was Treves and she's in a similar mould who could improve astronomically

Replay of Guineas win: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7T8PrCgsdI

Just A Way - Best horse in the world in 2014 on official ratings after his Duty Free romp. A long way below form last week in a prep for the Takarazuka Kinen next weekend, that'll tell us more but I have my suspicions whether 1m4f is his trip. Also entered in the Irish Champion so presumably would run there rather than a Longchamp trial if he was to try both. Trainer said after his race the other week that the Arc was "an option".

Epiphaneia doesn't look good enough, beat by Kizuna in the Japanese Derby last year and found out at the top level since (although was very unlucky in Hong Kong behind Designs On Rome).

Gold Ship has become a total pig and connections must be regretting not going for the 2012 renewal when he was in scintillating form. A long way below that and a big ask, be surprised if he even made the trip.

Gentildonna definitely doesn't run, goes for a third Japan Cup instead.
 
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Bar the Bull said:
[/LIST]Here is the betting and the main concerns about the runners:

5/1 Australia.....how good are the middle distance 3yo colts? Is he better over 10f, a distance over which he has never raced?
6/1 Treve.....did she benefit from the 3yo fillies allowances? Is she injured. Has she trained on enough?
12/1 Just A Way....does he stay 12f? Is he likely to result in 40/1 Australia on the PMU?
12/1 Harp Star....does he stay 12f? Is he likely to result in 40/1 Australia on the PMU?
10/1 The Fugue....what about the ground? Will she run?
12/1 Epiphenea....Is he likely to result in 40/1 Australia
16/1 Kingston Hill....lack of class an issue?
16/1 Taghrooda....Will she benefit from the allowances? Is she a good filly in a poor division, or the real deal?
Click to expand...

Horses that run in the Guineas and Derby have a lot on their plate to win the Arc as they are unlikely to maintain form throughout the season when they have been prepared for top level at the outset, so as much as I like Australia I couldn’t back him for this unless convinced he was sparking at the time.

Treve is vulnerable stripped of her 3yo allowances.

The Fugue, sweet on her at Ascot, not an Arc horse for me though.

Kingston Hill is a good Leger type, but like Leading Light last year may be a bit outclassed at Longchamp.

I don’t mind Taghrooda at all she has been introduced relatively gently and is on the upgrade and will of course benefit from wfa and wfs.
 
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O'Brien's record with three year olds in this race is also absolutely dismal. He bottoms them by then most of the time IMO.
 
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The Japanese will only win the race the year that I stop backing them. I'm open to bribery to not back any of them this year. They've got to win it one day.
 
Bar the Bull said:
It's a terrible ride. Interesting the way the cameraman had eyes only for the jolly the whole way round. What price was she? Is she very highly rated?
Click to expand...

Ah they love that in Japan, camera on the jolly all the way up the straight and miss the finish. Happens all the time!

She went off 30/100 for that after winning the Guineas at 1/5. Yes, very highly regarded. If you want to keep abreast of the Japanese stuff on Twitter, this guy is the best: https://twitter.com/LongBallToNoOne
 
It looks it is going to be a very competitive Arc this year aat the moment.
A pity Kizuna is missing the race as I thought he was the horse to beat.

This list are the main ones to this date:

3yo
Australia. 125p, good Derby winner, has tactical speed for this and is still lightly raced, so he can find some improvement, I think he ahs been quite fit for his first 2 runs, lets see if they target this race, I think he is more a 10f horse.

Kingston Hill. 122p, very good run in the Derby, will be suited by soft ground and can target this race.

Geoffry Chaucer 115p, run no sort of race in the Derby bt his future can lay on how he runs this weekend in the Irish Derby, plenty to find on the figures but still can be a top class prospect.

Eagle Top. 119P, impressive last week in the Royal AScot race, show a turn of foot on gf ground and on pedigree he can be better on softer, family has a history of quirky horse and one to treat with caution but in good hands and one for the very short list.

Prince of Gibraltar 116+, will be one the favorites for the GPP, I dont think he is good enough but want to see him again in a proper race on the soft condtions he needs.

Taghrooda 117p, good turn of foot in the Oaks, looks a good ground fillie, likely non runner here.

Avenida Certain. 117p, good CV winning Poule and Diane, not good enough and unlikely stayer for this.

We Are. 116ptg, I think she is the best 3yo fillie in Europe at the moment and can improve on better ground being by Dansili. Unlikely runner and unlikely stamina.

Shamkiyr. 113p, improver, plenty to find at the moment.

Sea the Moon 112P?, looks a very taletend one, likely very short price favorite of the german Derby, has some engine but looks a tricky costumer, one to watch.

Ectot 115p, one of the top 2yo french horses last year, good run on Poule trial, shoudl stay but has had an injury and plenty to find in the book at the moment.

Guardini 108p, won the Prix Du Lys under an good ride by Soumi, good pedigree and can improve on softer ground, plenty to find at the moment.

Teletext 108p, unlucky loser in the Prix Du Lys under a typical bad ride of Lemaire., has scope but needs good ground and plenty to find on the book.

Golden Guepard 108p, good pedigree, can improve through the year but plenty to find at the moment.

The Grey Gatsby 118, good runs this year, not good enough and unlikely stayer.

Savanne 109P, won very impressively a race run to suit at Cahntilly, good pedigree and scope.

Shamkala 114+, disappointing run in the Diane, well regarded by powerful connections, unlikely runner.




Telescope. 123+, good run last week in the Hardwicke, I dont see too much improvement and needs good to firm ground, my feeling is he is not good enough.

Flintshire. 120++, antepost favorite last season after an impressive run in the GPP on good ground where he beat a bad field in very good style. I dont think he was fully fit for Epsom that is a course not to suit his style of running, his main target should be the King George but if he finds good ground in October can run a good race.

Treve. 122 (128??), still dont know what happen last year with the japanesse horses, other than that run she has run in a range of 120-122 in all her runs including last weeks race.

The Fugue. 126+, impressive turn of foot last week, posting a career best performance, needs gf ground and better suited to 10f, I dont think she will run here and they will go to the BC meeting.

Ruler of the World. 126+, very good runs last year after winning the Derby in the Niel and the champion stakes, on that form he is the one to beat and very likely this is the target for him, one for the very short list.

Chicquita (113+$), expensive purchase , quirky type, not the kind of horse for this race.

Noble Mission 124+?gt, good form at the beginning of the season, doesnt look and Arc type.

Arab Spring. 116p, very progressive , top class pedigree, in good hands, can come a year too soon, and needs to improve, but not completely out of it.




Just A Way. 136+t, best horse in the world at the moment by a long way in my figures, the trip is a big doubt but on good to firm not completely , lets see what campaign is going to be given, but on dubai form he is the one.

Harp Star 117p, given some terrible rides in Spencer style, looks very talented, and possible runner, good type and one for the short list.

One and Only 121p, has scope and looks very talented, the crop doesnt look so good this year, pulls a bit and needs good pace, I have not read news about him coming.

Isla Bonita 120+, Guineas winner in Japan, talented , unlikely runner.

Gold Away 126$ (128), one the most talented on his day but not one to trust ona short price, needs fast pace and able to win an Arc.

Epiphaneia 120, not good enough.

Gentildonna 120 (125), cambe back to something like her best in Dubai. Has a chance if coming to Paris.

Denim and Ruby 113/118?, not good enough.

Red Reveur 114+, promising until her bad run in the Japannesse Derby,
 
moehat said:
The Japanese will only win the race the year that I stop backing them. I'm open to bribery to not back any of them this year. They've got to win it one day.
Click to expand...

I usually get involved in this market after seeing the GP Paris and King George, but this year is different.

Just a Way is the best horse trained in Japan for a very long time if not ever. I am not convinced 12f is his best trip but he was not stopping when he beat Gentildonna last year over 10f. He has also proved now that soft ground is not a problem.
Apparently he finished very tired after his last race and he'll be rested and aimed to the Arc. Considering his achievements, 12/1 looks very generous and has been taken.
 
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