The Road to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2014

Just a way's performance in Dubai was sensational but I can't help be suspicious of Dubai form. His other performances make him a group 1 performer but not the superstar he appeared to be over there.

And surely Deep Impact and Orfevre were better?
 
Aragorn said:
Just a way's performance in Dubai was sensational but I can't help be suspicious of Dubai form. His other performances make him a group 1 performer but not the superstar he appeared to be over there.

And surely Deep Impact and Orfevre were better?
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the performance in Dubai is the best level of Orfevre and Deep Impact.
 
Gamla Stan said:
O'Brien's record with three year olds in this race is also absolutely dismal. He bottoms them by then most of the time IMO.
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I think that's right. It's obviously not that they haven't got the ammunition but they don't seem to specifically target the race with 3yos and the race is too demanding just to take in as another Group 1.
 
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Gamla Stan said:
Just A Way - Best horse in the world in 2014 on official ratings after his Duty Free romp. A long way below form last week in a prep for the Takarazuka Kinen next weekend, that'll tell us more but I have my suspicions whether 1m4f is his trip. Also entered in the Irish Champion so presumably would run there rather than a Longchamp trial if he was to try both. Trainer said after his race the other week that the Arc was "an option"
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Yes probably more of a 10 furlong horse. Dropped him back to a mile in the soft last time, which probably accounts for his reduced performance. Also talk he could go for the Cox Plate in Australia. Wouldn't bank on him turning up for the Arc and if he does probably not a threat at the trip (although hard to tell with some of these Jap breds).
 
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Just A Way apparently fatigued after his last race in soft ground and heads for an Autumn campaign probably involving the Arc. Suspect it'll be Irish Champion then the Arc or just straight to the Arc. Or as Steve says, he could go to Moonee Valley.

Regarding his performances, his two wins prior to his Meydan romp are also top class performances. I just feel he's a better horse over 1m2f.
 
Top class but I just find it hard to believe a horse can find that level of improvement in such a short time at his age. It's not like he hadn't had many career starts and whilst I believe he could improve, that Dubai performance is another level.

The only other horse I can think of with a similar profile is Cirrus but he's a gelding... If he backs it up against a top quality field elsewhere I'll believe it.
 
Just a way has posted some similar figures to the Dubai run in japan, solid horse.

About cirrus, he is not the horse he was , and didnt find big improvement in a short period , he had been a top horse for many years.
 
So? As you say Cirrus didn't get going until very late in life, not sure what being a gelding has to do with it myself. It's an argument for keeping horses in training for longer.

Noble Mission another case.
 
First thing I am not going to do is suggest AOB will shirk the issue........I learned my lesson and know he will put his money where his mouth is if at all possible and sensible.

If he does target the Arc with Australia he' has to be the one they all have to beat.

No doubt he will go the 10f route initially and win a few before
putting his head on the chopping block but if he's successful in his venture I reckon AOB will let him take his chance.

Eagle Top really impressed at Ascot and 16/1 is very tempting.

I named him as my highlight of the meeting and like many I thought this horse could be very special.

The only problem I have with Eagle Top is not what he beat as much as how it came about that begs the question was he fattered by the winning distance?


SMS's horse had everything flat to the boards by the home turn. None were doing it easy and even Eagle Top was being ridden to get into a better position.

Once he drew level WB took a pull, sat for a moment then asked him to quicken a gain which he did in fine style.

Had a couple of horses been travelling well on the home turn I would be lumping on but keeping in mind that pulling away from beaten horses that have been in the van for most of the way makes thing that bit easier I'll still back him but won't be having a big bet on him until he shows a bit more of the same.

I wouldn't touch Treve with a bargepole.

Huge fan of SMS but I opposed Telescope at Ascot. His method of training has never chance, he has the patience of a saint and has been rewarded many times for it.

The big question is can Telescope be trusted? Maybe not but SMA can be trusted to get the very vest out of the horse................Only problem is how can you back him AP when he clearly prefers good ground?

All I can say is I'd be happy to lay Treve but no way would I lay any of the other 3.......a small wager on Eagle Top bc of the price is al l I would risk at this moment in time
 
Gamla Stan said:
So? As you say Cirrus didn't get going until very late in life, not sure what being a gelding has to do with it myself. It's an argument for keeping horses in training for longer.

Noble Mission another case.
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Being a gelding often makes them more agreeable and easier to train.

All I'm saying is that the Dubai form is dubious and the rate of improvement this horse has found at 5 is quite staggering. From the autumn of his 4yo career he's improved 15-20lbs, not many horses do that and until I see him do it outside of Dubai, which is a place that has a habit of throwing up strange results, I'll have the performance down as a one off. His Japanese form was 5lbs worse than the duty free, IMHO but to be fair you would know more about that than me.
 
Aragorn said:
Being a gelding often makes them more agreeable and easier to train.

All I'm saying is that the Dubai form is dubious and the rate of improvement this horse has found at 5 is quite staggering. From the autumn of his 4yo career he's improved 15-20lbs, not many horses do that and until I see him do it outside of Dubai, which is a place that has a habit of throwing up strange results, I'll have the performance down as a one off. His Japanese form was 5lbs worse than the duty free, IMHO but to be fair you would know more about that than me.
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From last year's high of 118, RPR have his first 3 runs this season as 124. 127 and 130, which (imo) is neither dramatic, nor all that unusual.
SMS has made much of his reputation wreaking similar improvement from 5yo since longer than I care to remember.
 
Just a way in my figures was a 120 in 2012

In 2013
He posted a 132+ the day he beat gentildonna and run to 127+First time out this season.

In Dubai he posted a 136+ running the race in an ultrafast time.

For me the only questions are 2
Is he healthy in october?
And will he stay?


I doubt we have in europe a horse as good as he is , and he can even improve.
 
Doesn't matter too much what JAW's figures are, he's not a mile-and-a-half horse and is disposed to stepping down rather than stepping up. He'll get run over if he attempts the Arc. Look elsewhere.
 
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His Dubai win was also the partial product of benefitting from being held up off a stupid pace. He might never get those conditions again.
 
reet hard said:
From last year's high of 118, RPR have his first 3 runs this season as 124. 127 and 130, which (imo) is neither dramatic, nor all that unusual.
SMS has made much of his reputation wreaking similar improvement from 5yo since longer than I care to remember.
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Not after the number of runs Just a Way had prior to his recent victories, completely different profile to an SMS improver.

Suny, do you think Gentildonna ran to her mark that day?!
 
Aragorn said:
Not after the number of runs Just a Way had prior to his recent victories, completely different profile to an SMS improver.
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Singspiel and Pilsudski both had more races, prior to their 5yo season.
Like Just A Way, their progression that year was gradual and credible, and not that of a one-hit wonder.
 
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Aragorn said:
Not after the number of runs Just a Way had prior to his recent victories, completely different profile to an SMS improver.

Suny, do you think Gentildonna ran to her mark that day?!
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Gentildona running to 118 that day
since then has won the Japan cup in 116 and the Sheema on 120+

before the race, she run 116 against the grey and 121 with St Nicholas Abbey.

Eishin Flash run to 120 in the Tenno Sho, very solid horses with many runs better than 120.


the dubai race was very fast time , with this oen he can be in front of a similar case to Cirrus des Aigles with people needing 4 year identify the quality of the horse
 
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