The Road to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2014

SteveM said:
Doesn't matter too much what JAW's figures are, he's not a mile-and-a-half horse and is disposed to stepping down rather than stepping up. He'll get run over if he attempts the Arc. Look elsewhere.
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Sea The Stars was not at his best in this distance and won the Arc

And the fact Solemia and treve has won the arc, why not this one who is a much better horse.

On pedigree he should stay, however when a horse has such a speed is very likely he doesnt stay, but until proven I prefer to be positive and think this oen is a special horse.


also note it looks a weak year
With Australia and Eagle top being good prospects but french 3yo look a bad bunch and the older horses are not able to beat Cirrus even on good ground,
also Kizuna is injured,
 
There's absolutely no doubting he's got the best form in the race (currently) but I'm with Euro and Steve when it comes to his chances; he's got to a) prove he's in that form for the Autumn and b) prove he stays. I certainly wouldn't be getting involved at the current prices.
 
sunybay said:
Gentildona running to 118 that day
since then has won the Japan cup in 116 and the Sheema on 120+

before the race, she run 116 against the grey and 121 with St Nicholas Abbey.

Eishin Flash run to 120 in the Tenno Sho, very solid horses with many runs better than 120.


the dubai race was very fast time , with this oen he can be in front of a similar case to Cirrus des Aigles with people needing 4 year identify the quality of the horse
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Surely Gentildonnas was a prep for the cup? Surprised you have her running to a lower figure.
 
As a rule unless the 3 year olds are not up to much, I would always be with a 3 year old winning. 3 year olds have a superior record in the race especially in the last 20 years or so.
Australia is a worthy favourite on what he has achieved. Though there is a chance he may not even run if the ground is soft.
Two I am interested at this stage are Taghrooda and Prince Gibraltar. Though you can make a case for half a dozen or so at the moment.
Unlike last year when Treve announced herself as the likeliest winner when running away with the Diane, before duly trouncing the Arc field. This year looks a bit more open in my view.
 
Indeed, impressive stuff but he's been the model of inconsistency since connections swerved the 2012 Arc.
 
Interesting that APOB believes that Australia may not run over 12f again.
Also interesting Nick Mordin thinks Leading Light could be an Irish Champion Stakes prospect.
Noble Mission could be a tasty each way price on soft; he did nothing wrong today bar getting caught late.
 
edgt said:
Also interesting Nick Mordin thinks Leading Light could be an Irish Champion Stakes prospect.
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Where did he say that? Weekender? He has some good theories but comes out with some ****. Be a laugh to see Just A Way against Leading Light over 1m2f!
 
Gamla Stan said:
Where did he say that? Weekender? He has some good theories but comes out with some ****. Be a laugh to see Just A Way against Leading Light over 1m2f!
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Definitely not in the Weekender. I always read his column to see what kind of nonsense he comes out with next.
 
Nick Mordin is probably one of the most interesting and more importantly..thought provoking ..writers on racing.

as per usual with someone like that only the negative bits are scrutinised

i usually disregard 50% of his stuff...but in the other 50% he makes me think about things and you then start looking at something linked to what he is saying

If a reader can't find anything useful in something he puts forward i'd say its more the fault of the reader than Nick.
 
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Cape Blanco was a 12f horse who got lucky with the rain, and set a searing pace. The notion that a Gold Cup winner could do the same is plainly laughable.
 
All I can say Reet is that LL is entered for the race.
It would not have been my choice either but there you are.
Also entered for King George ( Ascot) ; International at York and Irish St Leger.
Will most likely get an Arc entry also.
 
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EC1 said:
Nick Mordin is probably one of the most interesting and more importantly..thought provoking ..writers on racing.

as per usual with someone like that only the negative bits are scrutinised

i usually disregard 50% of his stuff...but in the other 50% he makes me think about things and you then start looking at something linked to what he is saying

If a reader can't find anything useful in something he puts forward i'd say its more the fault of the reader than Nick.
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I'd go 90%-10%
 
Surely the best race for LL is the ISL. Ernest Hemingway to target that aswell I would have thought.
Magician for the KG.
 
Very interesting Aragorn; thanks for the link.
That Magician has a higher rating than Australia is significant in so far as he does not get the plaudits he deserves even by his owners. ( That the rating is over 10f only adds to the spice)
The Tattersalls Gold Cup has worked out a far better race than most of us gave it credit for.
 
edgt said:
Also interesting Nick Mordin thinks Leading Light could be an Irish Champion Stakes prospect.
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While I agree that Nick can come up with interesting angles, this looks to be more in the category of plain wrong than ‘interesting’. In the absence of a fuller explanation I would point out that Leading Light has posted his three best ratings at 14 furlongs to 20 furlongs and his limitations at 12 furlongs were shown up in the Arc where he ran a reasonable race to finish 12th and just didn’t have the pace for that sort of race. Why he should be interesting for a top 10 furlong race that invariably goes to a horse with pace to burn eludes me and must remain a mystery in the absence of further detail (although I can’t imagine what that might be).
 
I dont agree about this one with nickmordin

But sometimes You see horses that change with age

2 examples
Swain, looked desatines to be a stayer and ended running well over 10f

Cirrus, looked a stayer on soft ground when impressively winning the gp de deauville and his best conditions as a 6 and 7yo were over 10f.


Mordin posts some interesting ones from time to time but dont foret we are in a era were timeform has Treve and Olímpic Glory rated higher than 130.
 
He does have some interesting theories but a lot of stuff that is just plain wrong.Cant see Leading Light running over 10 furlongs never mind winning a Group1 at the distance.
 
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