MOUNT ATHOS A TOP CLASS STAYER
Luca Cumani has a tremendous record with horses he takes over from other trainers. The latest example of this is MOUNT ATHOS (41) who Cumani has transformed from a very good handicapper to what my ratings now say is a Group 1 horse judged by his win the Geoffrey Freer Stakes last Saturday. It was the gelding's third win in three starts for Cumani.
The early pace was very strong in the Geoffrey Freer thanks to the pacemaker Dartford. He took the field along at a faster clip for the first mile than they went in the later ten furlong handicap which was also strongly run.
Held up well off the strong pace, Mount Athos picked up strongly and steadily all the way up the straight, hit the front two furlongs out and then drove clear rather quickly in the final furlong to score by over three lengths.
Mount Athos will soon be going into quarantine for the Melbourne Cup - a race Cumani is clearly intent on winning.
Cumani has gone really close in the Melbourne Cup with both Purple Moon and Bauer. Mount Athos is actually a tick better than that pair according to my ratings.
Fast ground is clearly essential for Mount Athos. But he seems likely to get that in Australia. The one concern I have is that the homestraight at Flemington may not be quite long enough for him to fully unwind his habitual late run off the likely moderate early gallop. However you could have said the same about Purple Moon and he came within half a length of winning the race that stops a nation.
Runner up BROWN PANTHER (39) has won five of the six times he's run in Listed or lower class but blanked the six times he's tackled Group company. He stays really well but does lack acceleration, especially on fast ground like he encountered here. He's capable of winning a Group race, maybe even a Group 1 race if he got soft ground and was running over at least a mile and three quarters. If he were mine I'd be stepping him up in distance and shooting for the Prix Royal Oak and Prix du Cadran.
I know it sounds weird to say this about a St Leger winner, but MASKED MARVEL (34) ran like a non stayer. He chased his pacemaker most of the way then tired in the closing stages.
When he won the St Leger the early pace was slow for the first half mile. When he won his prep for the St Leger over 1m 5f he was allowed to set a crawl of a pace. His most impressive run was when he showed a serious turn of foot to beat the smart Namibian three lengths over 11 furlongs in the Cocked Hat Stakes.
The six wins scored by Masked Marvel's damn and two siblings were all over ten and a half furlongs or less. I'd like to see him given a shot over that sort of distance before concluding that he's deteriorated.
DREAM TUNE CAN STAY LONGER
DREAM TUNE (36) looked smart when winning a seven furlong maiden in borderline pattern class time at Salisbury. He made all the running and cruised away from his rivals in the closing stages.
The most impressive aspect of Dream Tune's performance was that he covered the last half mile 2.1 seconds faster than they went in the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes over a mile on the same card. Admittedly they went off a bit too fast in the Sovereign Stakes whereas he was allowed a fairly soft lead. But he clocked a fast time and finished strong which suggests he's smart.
The way that Dream Tune was finishing makes me think he could actually stay ten furlongs despite his trainer's reservations on this score. Certainly he'd have no trouble going back up to a mile. It could be he needs cut in the ground like his close relative Poet. Only time will tell. He certainly looks pattern class and I'll be interested in his chances next time out.
DUNTLE CONTINUES TO LOOK SMART
I really liked the way DUNTLE (38) pulled back the two horses in front of her when switched for a run in the closing stages of the Desmond Stakes at Leopardstown. The determination she showed suggests to me she's a high class filly and that another couple of furlongs would be no problem.
If she hadn't duelled for the lead at an unsustainable pace in the 1000 Guineas Trial a few runs back this would probably have been Duntle's fourth win in a row. She's now shaping up as one of the best 3yo fillies in Britain or Ireland.
Previously Duntle had not proven she could act on soft ground. But she handled a very slow surface in the Desmond Stakes without a problem.
Duntle now has several potential targets. Given her versatility and class, whichever ones she runs in she'll be a serious threat.
BONNIE ACCLAMATION IS A VERY DECENT SPRINTER AROUND A TURN
Following his win in fast time off a searching early pace at Leopardstown it's clear that BONNIE ACCLAMATION (37) is a very decent sprinter.
Bonnie Acclamation does not appear to last seven furlongs and seems to need a turn to produce his best. So far he's run in three sprints shorter than seven furlongs around a turn and won clearly every time.
It could be Bonnie Acclamation needs mud and is best left handed. But the next time he runs in a short sprint around a turn I'll be wary of opposing him whatever the ground or the direction of the track.
SAINT BAUDOLINO PROVES HIS CLASS
One of the things that separates top class horses from ordinary ones is their ability to clock a fast final time off a slow early pace. It's remarkable just how much lost time a really smart horse can make up in the closing stages.
This was demonstrated by SAINT BAUDOLINO (40) when he won the Prix Guillame d'Ornano at Deauville. The first 1000 metres of the 2000 metre race was run in 67.5 seconds but the final 1000 metres took just 60.2 seconds. Saint Baudolino was four lengths off the leaders rounding the home turn but picked up the leaders rapidly and then ran away from them by clocking 34.06 seconds for the last 600 metres.
This performance puts Saint Baudolino bang there with this year's stellar crop of French middle distance fillies. And it's hard to argue against the idea that he'd have earned an even bigger speed rating if he'd been pressed harder or the distance had been a mile and a half, given the way he was powering away in the closing stages.
Another impressive aspect of Saint Baudolino's performance at Deauville was that he showed no signs of inexperience as he had in so many of his previous starts. He's now looking like the finished article.
If he'd enjoyed a clear run in the Prix du Jockey Club and not run green in the Grand Prix de Paris Saint Baudolino might well have won his last five starts.
The question now is whether Saint Baudolino will go for the Arc. He's not entered for the race, or anything come to that, but of course he could be supplemented.
The downside is that he's been on the go since March, having had seven runs in the last six months without a break. Every colt that his trainer Andre Fabre has ever run in the Arc has had a break of more than six weeks at some time in the previous four months. Unless Saint Baudolino goes straight to the big race, which seems unlikely, he won't have a rest.
Only one winner of the Prix Guillame d'Ornano in the last seventeen years has gone on to run in the Arc. And only one horse has ever won both events since it was first run back in 1952. In addition the normal game plan for Godolphin is for Fabre to bring their horses on at three and other trainers to take them over before they tackle big WFA races like the Arc.
Seeing that Fabre has Last Train and Meandre already lined up for the Arc I'd say the smart money is on Saint Baudolino missing the Arc.
SNOW FAIRY TOUGH TO BEAT UP SHORT HOMESTRAIGHTS
In winning the Prix Jean Romanet SNOW FAIRY (40) showed once more that her ability to quicken rapidly makes her hard to beat on tracks with relatively flat and short homestraights.
Snow Fairy has lost all nine times she's tackled tracks with steep uphill finishes or homestraights of half a mile or more. But she's won eight of the eleven times she's run on tracks with homestraights less than half a mile which aren't steeply uphill. Two of her losses came when she ran second and third in the Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc off an early pace that took the sting out of her finishing kick. Her other loss up a relatively short homestraight came when she ran second at Goodwood in the Nassau Stakes around the bottom bend where the homestraight is only just shy of half a mile.
In the Prix Jean Romanet Snow Fairy picked up in tremendous style in the closing stages to lead in the last half furlong and win by three parts of a length.
Snow Fairy has earned ratings as high as 43 from me in the past and is capable of beating pretty much anything in her favoured conditions. There does remain the question of whether she'll stand up to training or recover her very best form since this was her first run back following a tendon injury. But the signs are certainly positive at this stage.
Runner up IZZI TOP (39) was helped by the fact that the ground was a little slower than when she lost the Nassau Stakes. Actually she'd have run close to her normal level in that race had she not been forced to take up sharply in the closing stages. She's very consistent but there are so many good fillies around this year I doubt she'll take another Group 1.
Third placed GALIKOVA (39) has shown her best form over two furlongs longer. So she was not well served by a pacemaker who took the field along at a moderate pace. She trailed her pacemaker in second then took the lead entering the straight. She got passed 100 yards out and caught flat footed by the first two. She's better than this.
TIMEPIECE (39) was helped by the slow pace as she doesn't seem to get ten furlongs in a strongly run contest. She has a really big stride, so it's not surprising that four of her five pattern wins have come on straight courses. She's probably not as adept as most horses at having to slow down then speed up again due to negotiating a turn.
SIYOUMA (39) finished strongly but too late for the fourth time in a row. She has the build of a mile and a half horse. If she ever gets the chance to go longer than ten furlongs I'd be interested in her chances.
Sixth placed GIOFRA (38) produced a very interesting performance. Hung out wide all the way, she was visibly moving better than anything when the sprint finish began and moved up to just a length off the lead. It looked like she was poised to surge forward. Then Snow Fairy and runner up Izzi Top cut across her as they charged down the wide outside. Giofra took a slight bump from Snow Fairy who almost instantly formed part of a wall of four horses assembled in front of Giofra, blocking her path.
These incidents occurred so late in proceedings that Giofra's jockey, Christophe Soumillon, opted to wait for a gap to open rather than switch out. But the gap came too late, so Soumillon chose not to push his mount. The result was that he sat on her for the last 150 yards, barely moving a muscle, as the race unfolded around him.
This was just one of those things that happen in racing. The plus is that the run will probably bring Giofra on. She's only had three serious runs this season and will be a fresh horse for races like the Prix l'Opera. She remains one of the top fillies in Europe. In fact she ran fast enough to win a Group 1 against males when beating the smart Vadamar three lengths in the Group 2 Prix d'Harcourt in April.
The race I'd be shooting for with Giofra is the Hong Kong Cup. She'd almost certainly stay the extra two furlongs of the Hong Kong Cup too.
SEA OF HEARTBREAK (37) moved up to within a neck of the leader early in the straight but was then badly outsprinted by the first six. Her jockey stopped riding about 75 yards out when he recognised the situation. If any more proof were needed that she wants to go back up to a mile and a half this was surely it.
SNOWDAY STARTS TO GET INTERESTING
The Prix Morny was pretty much a replay of the Prix Robert Papin. RECKLESS ABANDON (38) made all the running, picked up well in the closing stages and clocked a fast time. He's a smart sprinter and should go close to a big race hat trick in the Middle Park next time.
I'm no fan of sprints. But I think it's a shame there isn't a single Group 1 race over five or six furlongs for three year olds in Europe. Three year old sprinters are forced to take on their elders and they're rarely up to beating them. This means that many horses that rank highly as two year olds disappear off the radar at three.
Those that finished behind Reckless Abandon are probably better long term prospects.
The second and third GEORGE VANCOUVER (37) and PARLIAMENT SQUARE (37) both came from the back and picked up really well in the closing stages. They look likely to stay a mile and are obviously interesting for future big races, especially over longer.
However the horse that really caught my eye was SNOWDAY (34) who only finished ninth.
Snowday is a good-bodied, mature, muscular classy looking sort that got crowded for room when the rest of the field followed the winner as he crossed over to the stands rail. He was moving so well he nearly ran into the back of the horses in front of him four times.
Eventually Snowday's jockey saw that a gap was never going to open. So he allowed him to drop out to last which enabled him to switch to the centre of the course. With a furlong left to run Snowday was last, three lengths behind the horse in front of him. He picked up so well that he gained about five lengths and came within a short head of passing three horses.
Snowday was outpaced in the last furlong when third in the Prix Robert Papin over 5.5f. The extra half furlong was clearly appreciated here. And I see no reason why the horse shouldn't stay a mile, just like his sire and almost all the decent horses on the dam's side of his pedigree. If he takes up his entry in the Middle Park I'll be interested in his chances. But I'd really like to see him going longer.
PACE MADE THE RACE FOR LITTLE MIKE
Turf racing in America is strange. Mot of the turf courses were afterthoughts, built on the inside of already tight dirt courses. As a result they’re mostly seven furlongs or a mile around with homestraights of just one and a half furlongs.
The problem this creates is that the turns are so tight the horses have to slow down to negotiate them. And the homestraights are so short pretty much every American turf race ends up in a wild sprint finish. The winners are those who can hit top speed really quickly exiting a turn or ones who have stolen a lead that cannot be cut back up a short homestraight.
This was the case in this year's Arlington Million where LITTLE MIKE (39) was allowed to amble through a first mile in a pedestrian 1m 39.54 seconds in a clear lead. He entered the straight with a lead of almost five lengths and had saved so much energy he was able to sprint the final quarter mile in just 22.9 seconds. It was pretty much a physical impossibility for him to be caught.
I can remember Bucks Boy stealing the Breeders Cup Turf from the front in similar fashion back in 1998. So I wouldn't dismiss Little Mike's chances of winning that race at Santa Anita this time around. His record shows that whenever he's been allowed a soft lead (which is most of the time) he has won.
Runner up AFSARE (38) flew up the straight to make up four lengths on the winner. But he was never going to get there. He’d played up at the start but does so often and this didn't seem to affect his performance. In a more strongly run race or on a track with a longer homestraight he remains capable of winning a Group 1.
Fellow British raider CRACKERJACK KING (37) was similarly disadvantaged by trying to gain ground into the crazy sprint finish up the impossibly short homestraight.
BAYRIR SHOULD IMPROVE OVER A MILE AND A HALF
I thought the mile and a quarter of the Secretariat Stakes might prove too short for BAYRIR (37) given the frequency of a slow early pace in US turf races. But the gallop was actually pretty decent and Bayrir's superior stamina eventually kicked him, allowing him to win going away without quite having to match the level of his previous win in the Prix Eugene Adam.
Bayrir has yet to earn a rating bigger than 38 from me. But his only loss in five starts came when he got caught flat footed in a sprint finish over nine furlongs. He continues to look capable of serious improvement over a mile and a half.
