The thoughts of the handicappers.

There is a distinct possibility she might be under rated at 122 given the nature of her performance but, with English 1000 Guineas winner Billesdon Brook (4th), O’Brien challenger Clemmie (5th: following up a disappointing effort in the Irish 1000 Guineas) and French challenger Coeur de Beaute (6th: possibly unsuited by quick ground) all failing to show their best, I would prefer to see her confirm the level either against the older fillies (possibly in the Falmouth) or against the colts later in the season before raising her any higher.
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I'll be very surprised if these figures aren't seriously upgraded in the coming weeks. He doesn't mention the time of the race which was very fast of its own accord and compared with every other race of the week.

Using my old standard times she comes out - before any consideration for wfa - 20lbs faster than Eqtidaar, 17lbs faster than Blue Point, 25lbs faster than Without Parole, 9lbs faster than Poet's Word, 13lbs faster than Expert Eye and 20lbs faster than Merchant Navy.

Using the published RP Standards, the margins over the same hoses in the same order are 25lbs, 17lbs, 26lbs, 13lbs, 25lbs and 20lbs.

The obvious anomaly there is the standard time for 7f. That's something I'll need to investigate.

But the idea of so many opponents not running their race behind Alpha Centauri strikes me as laughable. The last time I recall a mistake being so obvious was when Mark Of Esteem got little credit for destroying a decent field for the 1996 Celebration Mile and was allowed to go off at 100/30 in the QEII next time out. It was only after Ascot that the assessors went back and upgraded the Goodwood race.

If last week's race doesn't leave a mark on Alpha Centauri she will be unbeatable in any company.
 
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July Festival 2018 | Handicappers Blog
17 Jul 18


U S Navy flies the flag


Before the 6f Group 1 Darley July Cup at Newmarket – often the first significant clash of the year between the sprinting generations – the impression so far this season was that the older horses looked to hold the upper hand in the sprint division. However, it was a member of the younger generation dropping back in trip who came to the fore on the July Course, as Stewart Copeland explains.

That horse was Ballydoyle’s U S Navy Flag, Europe’s leading juvenile last season when completing the Middle Park-Dewhurst double. He’d run with credit over 8f previously this year, including when second in the Irish Two Thousand Guineas, but the decision to drop him back in trip at Newmarket proved a masterstroke and he showed sprinting is truly his game.

Bouncing out and soon cutting out the pace in the larger group down the centre, U S Navy Flag dictated the tempo throughout under a well-judged ride from Ryan Moore. He never looked in any real danger of being caught, despite a gallant challenge from Brando, who went one better than when third in the race the previous year.

The responsibility for publishing U S Navy Flag’s new official rating lies with our Irish counterparts. After discussing the race with them we settled on a revised rating of 119, which is pretty much bang on the average for a winner of the July Cup. Though still a shade below U S Navy Flag’s peak juvenile figure of 122, his form is firmly heading back in the right direction now (his rating had actually dipped to 113 prior to the July Cup).

The aforementioned Brando deserves plenty of credit for another excellent effort, even more so considering he was drawn in the smaller group near the stand rail. He had to edge across the track to lay down a challenge to U S Navy Flag, and that possibly took its toll as he weakened close home to finish a length and three quarters back. We have him running to a figure of 114, a shade below his career peak of 116. On this evidence though he has every chance of reproducing that level when attempting to defend his crown in the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville next month.

Warm favourite for the July Cup was Blue Point, the year’s highest rated sprinter on 120 following his impressive success in the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot. He pulled far too hard early on off a relatively modest early gallop at Newmarket – a view backed up by no more than a respectable overall time for the race – and that surely told in the end. His connections cited that he ran too free and a drop back to 5f for the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes at York probably beckons for him. His rating remains unchanged.

Star Performer

Having lit up Royal Ascot with a runaway success in the Coronation Stakes, Alpha Centauri enhanced her standing with another dominant display in the Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes, writes BHA Head of Handicapping Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

Rated 122 after Ascot, Alpha Centauri was the clear standout on form in the Falmouth and she had little trouble completing a Group 1 hat-trick, making just about all and stretching clear from 3f out.

The Falmouth is tricky race to level with absolute confidence at the moment with the likes of Nyaleti (4th; pre-race 109), Threading (6th; 110) and Opal Tiara (7th; 110) obviously performing below their best, and the places behind Jessica Harrington’s filly were filled by outsider Altyn Orda (2nd; 108) and Clemmie (3[SUP]rd[/SUP]), the latter having been some way off her 2yo figure of 115 in two previous starts this season.

Historically the race stacks up from a form perspective, however, and I see no obvious reason at this stage why this year’s renewal should prove an exception. Looking at previous results and the level of performance required to make the frame, there hasn’t been a third place performance in the Falmouth lower than 110 since 2006 and I have taken this fact to provide a short-term guide to last week’s race. As such, I have Alpha Centauri performing to 121+, which is the best Falmouth winning performance since my records began in 1999, beating the brace of 119s recorded by Soviet Song in 2004 and 2005. Altyn Orda improved 4lb to 112 and Clemmie got much closer to her juvenile form with a figure of 110.

I highlighted the process of looking at historical levels of races when assessing last month’s Queen Anne at Royal Ascot and the result of the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot on Saturday hopefully shows that I wasn’t too wide of the mark on that occasion.

The first four in the Summer Mile had all contested the Queen Anne and it looks as though runner-up Lord Glitters has reproduced his figure of 115, which ties in neatly with his stable companion Suedois’ (short head behind in 3rd) recapturing the pick of his 2017 form. Both were bettered however by Beat The Bank who didn’t get the clearest of passages at the Royal meeting and had to sit and suffer again for a few strides up the straight on Saturday – the gap came however and I have him running to 116+, 2lb below his current mark (and best figure of last season) of 118.

Pretty Impressive

July week at Newmarket brought a real shake-up at the top of the juvenile tree, writes Graeme Smith.

The first of three significant performances came from Advertise, who justified cramped odds in the Arqana July Stakes on the first day of the fixture. In a truly-run race Advertise was produced by Frankie Dettori to account for Konchek and Charming Kid by two lengths, and in the process became the latest horse to endorse the form of the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot.

The Coventry had been a muddling race, with the principals on opposite sides of the track, and under a more efficient ride this time Advertise improved on that performance in winning decisively. His rating rose from 110 to 112 as a result. Incidentally, the speed figure would have supported higher still.

The balance of subsequent runs from those who took part in the Coventry suggested a collateral rise of 1lb was justified for that race. As such, Coventry winner Calyx has had his rating increased from 113 to 114. It’s worth remembering that Calyx thrashed those that raced on his side of the track by upwards of six and a half lengths, so it could well be that he was disadvantaged to some degree and is value for an even higher figure. Hopefully he’ll prove the point one way or another in the Morny at Deauville next month.

Both Konchek and Charming Kid looked likely to improve for the step up from 5f pre-race and so it proved, with the pair now rated 106 and 105 respectively having been separated by a neck at the line after the latter had hampered the former.

There’s always an element of feel when factoring subsequent improvement at a different trip into a prior race, but looking back at the Norfolk Land Force had also endorsed the form when winning a listed race in Ireland. Factoring in that Shang Shang Shang had been rated at the bottom end of Norfolk winners historically, I saw enough reason to increase the level of that race by 1lb – Shang Shang Shang is now judged to have run to 103 and Konchek is rated upsides her on his 6f form when her fillies allowance is factored in, with Charming Kid just behind.

Day two of the Newmarket fixture saw the best performance by a two-year-old filly in Europe this season, and by some way too. Pretty Pollyanna’s Albany fifth came only a week on from her debut and from a wide draw, and she proved a completely different proposition in the Bet365 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes as she turned the form around with Main Edition and La Pelosa in no uncertain terms, running out a seven-length winner.

Admittedly the waters were muddied by an ugly incident that cost several their chance, including the Albany 1-2, and that makes assessing the race tricky, but Pretty Pollyanna would have run out an impressive winner regardless.

Historical standards weren’t much use given the exaggerated distances that trouble in running produced. The speed figure was helpful though – Pretty Pollyanna ran to a figure of 110 on the clock.

Another line to the performance was that she beat the Albany fourth Angel’s Hideaway by seven lengths, which equates to 18lb at the poundage used. Whilst Angel’s Hideaway caused the interference she wasn’t adversely affected by it, and judging her as having reproduced the same 100 performance as at Ascot suggested a figure of 118 for Pretty Pollyanna. I split the difference between that and the speed figure and went with 114 in the hope that we get a more definitive guide to Pretty Pollyanna next time she runs.

Incidentally, the best performances in the Duchess of Cambridge (or Cherry Hinton as it was previously known) this century are 119 from Attraction and 115 from Sander Camillo. There’s every chance Pretty Pollyanna’s performance is in the same ballpark as Sander Camillo’s but I’ve tempered things slightly for now given the circumstances that affected several of the opposing fillies.

The final day of the Moet & Chandon July Festival saw the emergence of another promising talent in Quorto, although in truth his wide-margin win in the Bet365 Superlative wasn’t exactly a surprise given the impression he’d made on his debut three weeks previously.

Sent off favourite, Quorto came away from a couple who were also having their first start in pattern company, with the pattern-proven Certain Lad much further back in fourth and Blown By Wind clearly not himself further back.

It’s hard to know exactly what Quorto beat on the day but historical standards point towards 114 and that is where I have pitched him for now. His speed figure also supports that sort of level and on time alone the form could be higher still (as high as 118).

Quorto is by Dubawi out of a mare who was placed in both the Oaks and Irish Oaks. It’s not hard to see him making into a genuine Group 1 horse himself, and it sounds as though the National Stakes at the Curragh could be his first top-level test.

Wells Farhh Go delivers

Three of the last four Bahrain Trophy winners have gone on to contest the St Leger and the latest victor, Wells Farhh Go, is expected to follow the same route. Matthew Tester looks at how those other winners have done and whether this year’s winner has what it takes to make in impact at Doncaster.

Wells Farhh Go had raced keenly on his first two starts this year so at Newmarket connections decided to let him bowl along. He seemed relaxed in front and kept pulling out more as the challengers lined up, beating Loxley by two lengths. That earned him a rating of 112, which is a couple of pounds ahead of the best that Raheen House, Housesofparliament or Hartnell earned in the Bahrain Trophy before running in the St Leger. At Doncaster Housesofparliament was third, beaten under a length, though the other two each finished only seventh in their year.

The bad news for Wells Farhh Go is that the Leger has not favoured front runners in recent years, though it remains to be seen whether Wells Farhh Go has to be ridden that way to produce his best. His next run in the Great Voltigeur at York may tell us more on that score.

117 is a typical rating for winning a St Leger in recent years. Wells Farhh Go’s 112 is a career high and there may be more to come. His main rivals in the betting at present are Kew Gardens and Latrobe, who are both rated 115 on our figures. Both of those are very progressive so this may prove an above-average renewal.

Do not rule out Derby runner-up Dee Ex Bee either. His 118 performance at Epsom is eight pounds higher than he has been given for any of his other runs. However, everything about the Leger could be set up for him to produce a resurgent performance.

In short, there will have to be another step up from Wells Farhh Go if he is to cope with those three colts.
 
Qatar Goodwood Festival Handicappers Blog


Is Battaash the best sprinter in the world?

The best performance of the Glorious Goodwood week was put up by Battaash in the Group 2 Qatar King George Stakes run over 5f on Friday says Chris Nash.

He went into the race rated 122 and, even though he was carrying a 3lb penalty, he had 7lbs and upwards in hand of his rivals on the official figures. However, he beat them in dazzling fashion and did so with plenty more than those 7lbs in hand. He tanked along throughout, led around 2f out and had a gap on the field 1f out which he maintained to the line where he was 4 lengths clear of Take Cover with Muthmir a further ½ length back in 3rd.

Take Cover arrived here rated 109 and has a tremendous record in this race having finished 4-1-2-1 in the previous four renewals running to figures of 111-112-110-113 and he gives this form some basis. It is similar with Muthmir who arrived rated 108 and has been running consistently, recently recording figures of 107-108-106 in his previous three starts. I think this form has a solid look to it.

In winning by a comfortable 4 lengths carrying 3lbs more than all his rivals I have Battaash running to a figure of 127 which rates a career best and has him as the leading sprinter in the world this year. His next outing is likely to be at York later this month in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes. I am hoping that he can win the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint, something which no other British-trained horse has ever achieved.

The highest profile 2yo race over 5f during the week was the Group 3 Markel Insurance Molecomb Stakes run on Wednesday. This also saw a commanding winner with Rumble Inthejungle travelling best throughout the race and coming home 2½ lengths clear of his rivals. Having had only two previous runs, he did not have an official rating but he had already run a figure of 100 when finishing 4th in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. This performance was another step up and I have given him a figure of 109 for this win.

Life Of Riley finished second – he had placed in a Listed race on his previous run and arrived here rated 95. This was an improved effort and his mark will rise to 101. The form is given a solid look by the next two home as both Soldier’s Call (3rd) and Vintage Brut (4th) had previously won Listed races. Rumble Inthejungle has improved with every start so there is presumably still some potential for further improvement. He rates an exciting sprinting prospect.

The £1m Stradivarius?

The Qatar Goodwood Cup saw a rematch of Stradivarius and Torcedor between whom there was only ¾ of a length in the Ascot Gold Cup, writes Matthew Tester.

This time there was only half a length between them with Stradivarius again the winner. But it is the third meeting that has everyone excited.

If Stradivarius can win the Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup at York later in the month then he will have earned a £1,000,000 bonus to go along with almost £700,000 in prize money from the three races. But there is a catch.

This time Stradivarius will have to carry three pounds more than Torcedor. The other two races are Group 1s, the Lonsdale Cup is a Group 2 race and he will have a penalty. Normal handicapping practice says that Torcedor will turn the tables. Three pounds would normally slow a horse down by three lengths in those long distance races. But I am not so sure in this case it will work out that way.

There is a real possibility that Stradivarius was only doing enough to win, that he would have pulled out extra had it been needed. I think that there is more to come. There will need to be as it will take a career best performance to win the million. My head says Torcedor, my heart says Stradivarius. The Lonsdale Cup is on August 24[SUP]th[/SUP] and is not to be missed.

Lightning strikes once

Amongst the eight races I had to assess at Goodwood last week, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill, it was the success of Lightning Spear in the Qatar Sussex Stakes that gave me the greatest pleasure.

Despite several near misses in the top mile races in recent years, the seven year old did not have a Group 1 win on his CV until last Wednesday. He achieved it on his sixteenth run in the Group 1 company.

The race did provide some food for thought from a handicapping perspective Lightning Spear has never run higher than 120 in twenty three previous starts. That was achieved when third behind Minding and Ribchester in the 2016 QE II at Ascot. In his ten subsequent starts his record is littered with performances ranging between 105 and 119 and with just one success – the 2017 Celebration Mile, also at Goodwood. It is entirely possible however, that he bettered that figure here, beating the likes of Expert Eye (2nd: pre-race 119), Gustav Klimt (4th: 118), Beat The Bank (5th: 118) and Without Parole (7th: 119) but, at this stage, I have my doubts.

I think it fair to say that in winning his first Group 1 he has equalled anything he has done previously but find it a little hard to believe, given his previous history, that he is suddenly an improved horse. I may be wrong but I would like to see him back it up with a similar performance before handing out that accolade.

As such, I have him running to 120 and amended his published mark in line with that. Expert Eye (2nd) was probably a little keen for his own good and I have him performing a couple of pounds of his current mark of 119 (remains unchanged). Third-placed Lord Glitters is promoted 1lb to the 116.

Disappointment of the race was Without Parole but there were legitimate excuses for his performance as he was reported as being unsuited by having to make his own running. That said the form of the St James’s Palace he won at Royal Ascot is looking shaky as the first six home now failing to reproduce their supposed performances there in a total of seven subsequent starts. For this reason I have pulled the race down a pound and Without Parole goes from 119 to 118 based on the Royal Ascot performance rather than what he did or didn’t achieve last week.
 
York Ebor Festival | Handicappers Blog
28 Aug 18

Lion roars loudest
Head of handicapping Dominic Gardiner-Hill assesses Roaring Lion’s success in the Juddmonte International, the highest-rated performance of the Ebor meeting…

The Juddmonte proved a rather messy race with Christophe Soumillon’s decision to come to the stands rail on pacesetter Thunder Snow doing favourite Poet’s Word few favours, but let’s take nothing away from an impressive performance by Roaring Lion, whose winning margin of three and a quarter lengths was the longest in the race since Frankel’s seven-length demolition of the field in 2012.

In determining the level of the race, I not only took into account the ratings and the current form of the horses concerned but also had a look at the race from an historical perspective – and the most striking fact that came to light is that no horse has run above 115 in finishing fifth since the turn of the century. Using that figure as a guide to what fifth-placed Benbatl (pre-race 123) achieved, this leads to Roaring Lion running to 127 which is an improvement of 5 lb on his previous mark of 122 and is the best winning performance in the race since the aforementioned Frankel’s 140 in 2012. This level has runner-up Poet’s Word running 10 lb below the 130 he achieved in winning the King George last month – a little disappointing but hardly surprising in light of the way things panned out for him, and 120 is bang on the average figure for a runner-up in this race in recent times.

I took some stick on Twitter immediately after the race for not giving third-placed Thundering Blue (pre-race 109) the credit he deserved for his career best effort – that was never my intention and I still defy anyone to say he was underrated on what he had achieved previously. This was on a completely different level, however, and I have raised him 10 lb to the figure of 119 that I have him performing to on the day – a career best by some margin in my book and congratulations to connections for their brave (and expensive) decision to supplement the five-year-old.

St Leger clues

There was plenty of top-class action over 12f at York last week, with the Group 2 Sky Bet Great Voltigeur, the Group 1 Darley Yorkshire Oaks and the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes all producing performances that merit comment, as Mark Olley outlines…

I will start with Wednesday’s Great Voltigeur which was won in game style by Old Persian. In a truly-run race, Old Persian was always well placed and he battled on well to just hold off shorter-priced stablemate Cross Counter, to whom he was conceding 3 lb. Old Persian’s new rating of 117 is 5 lb lower than what last year’s winner Cracksman (122) achieved in the race, but he was an above-average winner and 117 is around par for a Great Voltigeur winner in recent times (same figure as 2016 winner Idaho).

Ballydoyle’s Kew Gardens was the only horse involved in the finish to make any headway from the rear of the field, and his effort was all the more meritorious as he was carrying a 5-lb penalty for his Group 1 win. He was beaten just over one and a half lengths, which equates to 3 lb at the poundage used (rounded up), and I have him running to a figure of 116. However, the ultimate decision for his rating belongs to Senior Irish handicapper Garry O’Gorman.

Both Old Persian and Kew Gardens head to the St Leger and Old Persian’s 117 rating is the same as the five-year average rating for the winner of the Doncaster Classic.

Thursday’s Yorkshire Oaks was run in a very different style to the Voltigeur – they went steady and it turned into a speed burn-up in the straight. Sea Of Class sat last under a confident ride and she unleashed a devastating turn of foot to decisively beat Coronet, who finished runner-up in the race for the second year running (beaten by Enable (123) last year).

I have called the two and a quarter length winning margin 5 lb and Sea Of Class moves up 3 lb to a new rating of 118, a figure which fits nicely with historical race standards for the Yorkshire Oaks. William Haggas’ filly is clearly anything but standard, and as an unexposed filly with a progressive profile, I doubt we have seen the best of her yet.


The listed Galtres Stakes was run in similar fashion to the Yorkshire Oaks and saw another very promising filly in Lah Ti Dar, who destroyed inferior rivals in impressive fashion in running out a ten-length winner. A time comparison between the two races suggests a figure of 115 for Lah Ti Dar and that is where I have pitched the level of the race. The highest-rated Galtres winner this century, she’s clearly pattern class and now has the St Leger on her agenda. The 3 lb fillies’ allowance that she receives at Doncaster means her rating equates to that of a 118 rated colt, and that figure would have been good enough to win four of the last five St Legers.

Nunthorpe head-scratcher

With headline act Battaash underwhelming in the Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes for the second year running and the race going to a 40/1 outsider, rating the latest renewal wasn’t straightforward, as 5f handicapper Chris Nash explains…

The Nunthorpe looked an ideal opportunity for Battaash to build on the deep impression he created at Goodwood last time but he managed only fourth, and with no obvious excuses this time around (boiled over in the preliminaries when also finishing fourth last year). There was, however, a really exciting finish ahead of him fought out by Alpha Delphini and Mabs Cross. The pair crossed the line separated by just a nose, with the verdict going to the former in the ensuing photograph.

There is no doubt that this is a career-best effort for Alpha Delphini, but knowing what he actually achieved is difficult given he had a previous best figure of just 110 and had already been beaten by several of his Nunthorpe rivals previously this year. In the end I decided to rate him 116, which is equal to the lowest-rated winners of the race this century – Borderlescott in 2009, Reverence in 2006 and Bahamian Pirate in 2004.

That interpretation has Mabs Cross running to a figure of 112 (received a 3 lb fillies’ allowance from the winner), which represents a career best for her too.

Blue Point ran to a figure of 108 in finishing third, which is way below the 120 he recorded when winning the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot in June, and Battaash managed a figure of just 107. I had him at 127 after his King George Stakes win but that form did not stand up in the Nunthorpe so I have trimmed him back to 126.

The final Group 1 5f race of the European season is the Abbaye at the Arc meeting and I imagine that most of the main protagonists will be in action again there.

Good week for Gosden stayers

Matthew Tester looks at what was a highly profitable last two days of the meeting for the John Gosden yard who completed a big-race double in the stayers division…

First up was Stradivarius who landed the inaugural Stayers’ Million bonus when winning the Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup. Giving weight to the whole field under a Group-1 penalty, he actually improved his superiority over the horses he had beaten in the Goodwood Cup – Idaho, Desert Skyline and St Michel – and his rating goes up from 118 to 120.

120 is the highest winning figure in the Lonsdale since 2003 when the previous year’s St Leger winner, Bollin Eric, was victorious. Stradivarius had already won the Yorkshire Cup, Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup this year, and with the million-pound bonus, his earnings for the season come to almost £1.8m.

The runner-up, Count Octave, had previously rated 111 when five lengths behind Stradivarius in last year’s St Leger. He beat the rest by upwards of four and a half lengths and has been awarded a career-best figure of 115.

Prize money for the Sky Bet Ebor has risen to £500,000 this year and will go to £1,000,000 next year. The quality of horses it attracted meant that anything rated lower than 102 did not even get a run in the race. That level has been steadily rising and is unlikely to come down, though from next year the number of runners will rise from twenty to twenty-two following York’s decision to commission a special set of starting stalls for that number.

The 2018 favourite was Stratum who just sneaked in off bottom weight. He was short of room and then involved in some bumping before the furlong pole and didn’t get a chance to show what he could so. Instead it was Gosden first and second with Muntahaa clearly best and Weekender running a career-high performance in chasing him home. The winner’s rating goes from 109 to 115 and Weekender’s from 112 to 114.

Pretty Darn Good

York’s Welcome To Yorkshire Ebor Festival might have been the flagship event of the last seven days but it was Deauville that staged the most important juvenile contest and it saw a couple of British-trained fillies raise the bar for the year, writes Graeme Smith…

I said at the time that Pretty Pollyanna’s Duchess of Cambridge success could easily be worth more than 115 and she produced a 117 performance to beat Signora Cabello (115) in the Group 1 Darley Prix Morny. The pair drew four lengths clear of True Mason with further daylight behind him.

Historical standards suggest the figure could be higher still but one or two of those further back clearly failed to fire so I exercised an element of caution. Nevertheless, this substantiates the impression Pretty Pollyanna made at Newmarket – form that had already been endorsed when Angel’s Hideaway won the Princess Margaret – and there’s clearly the potential for her to do better still. For context, she’s already rated superior to last year’s Champion two-year-old filly, Clemmie, who finished the year rated 115.

When rating the Morny I factored in Signora Cabello’s standing against previous winners, and at 115 with her fillies allowance her performance would have won her 3 of the last 6 renewals. She’d been building up a strong CV with successes in the Queen Mary and Robert Papin but had only been doing enough to win narrowly, and a duel with Pretty Pollyanna showed she’s a deal smarter than she’d previously revealed.

The best performance in the juvenile division at York came from Emaraaty Ana in the Group 2 Al Basti Equiworld Gimcrack Stakes. He elevated himself to a position just behind the leading colts so far with a performance of 112.

The average figure for a Gimcrack winner from the previous 5 years is 114 but that slightly lower performance from Emaraaty Ana is typical of the two-year-old colts overall this summer, with Quorto and Calyx leading the way at only 114. There is a lot of water to pass under the bridge yet of course and Emaraaty Ana’s pedigree suggests stiffer tests of stamina may help him advance further.

The Ebor meeting’s two-year-old races were kicked off, as ever, by the Group 3 Tattersalls Acomb Stakes. It’s thirteen years since Palace Episode won the Acomb en route to Group 1 success but Phoenix of Spain produced a better performance than the majority of winners in the interim in recording a figure of 109 for his length and a half defeat of Watan.

The first two were amongst those who looked to have the most potential beforehand, and having drawn clear of a reasonably strung-out field headed by the form pick Persian Moon, it could easily be onwards and upwards for both.

The Sky Bet Lowther didn’t look a vintage renewal beforehand and with Fairyland’s main rival, Angel’s Hideaway, running notably flat I pitched it at a slightly substandard level.

There’s a lot to like about Fairyland, of course. She beat a couple of colts who’ve gone on to Group 2 success in listed company in the spring and then won the race in her group in the Albany. It’s also easy to warm to runner-up The Mackem Bullet, who continues to outrun her purchase price of £9,000 by some way and looked to be getting the better of this at one stage. Figures of 107 and 106 respectively do leave them with plenty of ground to make up on the leading sprint fillies at this stage, however.

Red Balloons had looked exciting prior to disappointing in the Super Sprint and she got herself firmly back on track when running away with the very valuable Goffs UK Premier Yearling Auction Stakes. She now figures at 97 and that should see her competitive in minor pattern company this autumn.

The Super Sprint winner, Ginger Nut, further bolstered the coffers when adding the most valuable nursery of the year to her haul when getting the best of a tight three-way finish to the closing race on Wednesday’s card. Considering it took her five runs to get off the mark her improvement in the last month or so has been remarkable. Now rated 93, she’ll presumably be heading for listed or minor pattern company now.

Over at Goodwood, the Group 3 Ladbrokes Prestige Stakes resulted in a bunched finish where all eight runners were covered by less than four lengths. It may be that Antonia de Vega did well to put a length and a quarter between herself and the field, particularly as she was outpaced briefly when the tempo picked up. She emerges from just the second start of her career rated 100.


For those who like to keep an eye out for future stars in novice races, Newmarket’s Friday card is often worth closer inspection. The performance of Sir Michel Stoute’s Sangarius is well worth taking the time to do an internet search. Both he and the runner-up, Bangkok, have a lot to recommend them on paper and the pair charged upwards of six lengths clear of their eleven rivals. Sangarius in particular could well be fast-tracked to better things.
 
Thanks for putting these up, Ben, it's appreciated.

Reading the last two posts makes me wonder, though, whether the handicappers are on a mission to big up the performances of these horses as much as possible? Has this year's flat season really been that good?

Battash is rated the best sprinter in the world this year, then flops at York.
Poet's Word is given an exalted 130 after Ascot but gets soundly beaten next time out (I know there were tactical issues, but a champion-level horse should have been better able to cope).
The horse which beats him at York, Roaring Lion, then gets the highest rating for a winner of the Juddmonte since Frankel.
Great Voltigeur winner Old Persian gets a rating already good enough to match an average winner of the St Leger.
Lah Ti Dar becomes the highest rated winner of the Galtres Stakes this century.
Stradivarius's rating goes up after York, even in the absence of his main opponent this season and the horses behind him get lifetime bests.
The Lowther was one of just a few races which are rated below their normal level.
 
Doncaster St Leger Festival | Handicappers Blog
18 Sep 18

Gardens blossoms on Town Moor

The Group 1 William Hill St Leger, the final classic of the domestic season, looked to have real strength in depth this year with nine of the twelve runners having already won in listed or pattern company. Michael Harris assesses an above-average renewal
Kew Gardens was the only previous Group 1 winner in the field, having won the Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp in July. He had proven his stamina for the Leger trip when winning the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot and was last seen when third in the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur at York. He had to carry a 5-lb Group 1 penalty that day, when shaping like a step back up in trip would be in his favour, and so it proved. He joined the leaders two furlongs out after travelling well and showed a willing attitude, seeing the race out strongly.

Favourite Lah Ti Dar tracked Kew Gardens through the early part of the race but came under pressure at the top of the straight. She could not quite keep tabs on the winner but responded well to stay on and was coming away from the rest of the field at the line. Lah Ti Dar appeared to stay the longer trip well, and with this being only the fourth start of her career there is a strong chance she can improve further. She is likely to drop back to 12f for the Qipco Fillies’ and Mares’ race on Champions Day at Ascot, and beyond that will be a leading contender in the top middle distance races next season.

Lah Ti Dar came into the race rated 115 after her runaway win in listed company at York and we have her repeating that level of form. Factoring in her fillies allowance, that puts her ahead of the usual level for a St Leger runner-up but looks justified given the gap back to the rest. Kew Gardens had a pre-race Irish rating of 117. After consultation with Irish handicapper Garry O’Gorman, we have decided on a new figure of 121 for him – he beat Lah Ti Dar by two and a quarter lengths, which equates to 3 lb over this distance, and was also giving the filly 3 lb (hence 6 lb ahead in total).

From a historical point of view Kew Gardens is a pound higher than last year’s winner Capri (120), and is the best winner since Masked Marvel (also 121) in 2011. Only 2008 winner Conduit (122) and 2001 winner Milan (122) have recorded higher figures in the race this century.

Old Persian (117) had beaten Kew Gardens in the Great Voltigeur (when in receipt of 2 lb), however he didn’t appear to appreciate the step up in trip and will be seen to best effect back at 12f. Dee Ex Bee ran another consistent race over this longer trip and remains on 114. Runner-up in the Derby, he hasn’t quite been able to repeat that form since but has finished out of the first four only once this season – there was some cut in the ground at Epsom (good to soft in places) and such conditions may suit him best.

Too Hot to handle

Lah Ti Dar might have had to settle for a gallant second in the St Leger but her brother Too Darn Hot made no mistake in the Howcroft Industrial Supplies Champagne Stakes, writes Graeme Smith…

The feature of the Champagne Stakes was how strung out the field got and Too Darn Hot’s turn of foot to bridge the gap was hugely impressive, with Dettori able to take things easy near the finish. There’s little doubt he’s a contender for Champion Two Year Old at this stage, but that’s judged more on his potential than proven form – this defeat of the Acomb winner Phoenix of Spain rates at 116 by my reckoning and that’s including extra for his being eased down late on.

Nevertheless, 116 is right up there with the best Champagne winners of recent times, second only to Emotionless since Lucky Story ran to 120 in 2003, and plenty of those that posted lower figures went on to Group 1 success.

Two-year-old ratings are reflective of opportunity as well as ability and Too Darn Hot has yet to face the sort of test that Quorto and Anthony Van Dyck provided for each other in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday. That form can’t be assessed until last week’s workload has been put to bed but there’s a good chance Quorto in particular produced more than Too Darn Hot has needed to so far.

Sangarius was flagged up as an exciting colt after winning on his debut at Newmarket and he took the next step up in his stride in the listed Weatherbys Global Stallions App Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster on Friday.

Sir Michael Stoute’s son of Kingman is an imposing sort physically and he galloped more than two lengths clear of his rivals despite giving the impression he was still very much learning the job. At one point he looked like winning by at least twice the margin he did, and assuming his hanging was down to nothing more than greenness it’s not hard to see him stepping up again on this 108 performance.

The William Hill May Hill Stakes went the way of the Ballydoyle-trained Fleeting, who relished the step up from 7f just as much as her performance when third in a Group 3 at the Curragh last month had promised. Her official rating is a decision for my Irish counterpart but I have her in the region of 106.

While the fillies sprint division has the shining stars of Pretty Pollyanna and Signora Cabello, it’s fair to say that it’s still all to play for in the 7f/1m category with nothing yet standing out (prior to my assessing the Moyglare at least). That’s quite a contrast to the colts, however, and potential clashes in the Dewhurst and Futurity could be something to behold.

Soldier’s on the march

The other two-year-old pattern race at the St Leger meeting, the Group 2 Wainwrights Flying Childers Stakes, was landed by the speedy colt Solder’s Call. Chris Nash assesses his performance…

Soldier’s Call has a generally progressive profile having landed three of his five outings prior to the Flying Childers, and he arrived at Doncaster rated 108 after winning a Group 3 race in France earlier in September. He bounced out of the stalls and made all to win by two and a quarter lengths from Well Done Fox. The runner-up was rated 107 after winning a listed race at York last time out and he gives this form a solid enough look.

The last ten winners of the Flying Childers have ranged from 105 to 113 and race standards put the performance of Soldier’s Call in the range of 109 to 111. I was impressed with the manner of his win so I went at the top end of that range and his revised mark will be 111. This level has the runner-up performing to 104 and the third horse, the Irish-trained Gossamer Wings, running to 99.

Connections of the winner have ambitious targets for him with trips to both the Abbaye and the Breeders’ Cup under consideration. He would be taking on his elders in the Abbaye, and whilst he would have plenty to find on the ratings (last year’s winner Battaash is rated 126), he is obviously open to further improvement.
 
QIPCO British Champions Day | Handicappers Blog
23 Oct 18

Cracksman: Europe’s best once again

BHA Head of Handicapping Dominic Gardiner-Hill assesses the two most valuable races on Champions’ Day, starting with Cracksman’s dominant success in the Qipco Champion Stakes…

As was the case twelve months ago, the highlight of Champions Day 2018 was undoubtedly the performance of Cracksman in winning his second Champion Stakes. Rated 130 when demolishing his field by seven lengths last year,the question is whether he achieved a similar level with his very comfortable six-length success (looks further to the naked eye) on Saturday, when he was in such control that Frankie Dettori could spend the last half furlong waving to the crowd.

From a ratings perspective the slight concern is the presence of Czech raider Subway Dancer (pre-race 108) in third, but for whom the race would probably be rated higher. He is no slouch however, and was credited with a performance of 112 when runner-up in last year’s Prix Dollar (French Group 2) and I suspect he has run to that sort of level here. As such, runner-up Crystal Ocean (pre-race 129) has run to 114 on ground that may well have been too soft and over a trip that may have been too sharp. Interestingly, the last time he ran over 10f with some cut in the ground I had him running to a very similar level (113) when winning the Gordon Richards at Sandown on his seasonal reappearance. From a purely mathematical point of view that would leave Cracksman having run to 126/127+ but such was his dominance and ease of victory, I believe it would be churlish to say that his performance wasn’t as good as last year’s and I have put him back to his peak mark of 130.

That would represent the best performance we have seen in Europe this season and, come December, the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings Committee will discuss the performance in relation to the world’s other leading performers through the year.

Following on from the Champion Stakes and various other results from the second half of the season, my colleague Mark Olley (who looks after the top 12f races) and I had a conversation regarding the top British-trained performers of the season in relation to each other and made a couple of tweaks. Crystal Ocean, who has yet to win at Group 1 level, is pulled back to 126 whilst his King George conqueror Poet’s Word is reassessed at 127 – the same as his Juddmonte International conqueror Roaring Lion.

Mention of Roaring Lion brings me neatly to the QEII and a fourth straight Group 1 success for John Gosden’s colt. To my mind the soft ground was the determining factor as far as the result was concerned, with Roaring Lion running 9 lb below his best in gaining a narrow victory on ground that both jockey and trainer were adamant that he was hating – the next five horses home were all proven soft ground performers.

The presence of Stormy Antarctic in fourth gives a major clue as to the level of the contest, that gelding having never run higher than 114 in twenty-three previous starts and I see no obvious reason as to why he should have improved on run number twenty-four. As such, I have Roaring Lion running to 118, runner-up I Can Fly (who could be considered a little unlucky as carried 2 lb overweight and didn’t get the clearest of runs 2f out) improving from 110 to 116 and Century Dream (third) going up a couple of pounds, also to 116.

All the right notes

Five wins out of five. Over £2,000,000 won in prize money and bonuses. It has been a dream year for Stradivarius. He rounded off his season by winning the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup at Ascot, but it could have finished very differently, as Matthew Tester explains …

This win showed why Stradivarius is king of the stayers. He is a stayer with a turn of foot. With three furlongs to go he was stuck on the rails with nowhere to go. When, turning into the straight, the front-running Flag of Honour swung just one horse’s width off the rails, that was enough encouragement for Frankie Dettori. He already had Stradivarius ready to go. The horse quickened into the gap before Ryan Moore could shut the door and the race was won in that instant. Without that gap, without that acceleration and without Frankie having him primed for the moment, his perfect season might not have happened.

None of Stradivarius’ five wins in 2018 have been gained by a wide margin but he keeps pulling out enough. His rating of 120 remains unchanged after Saturday but it might go higher next year. Only one of his opponents in the Long Distance Cup was rated higher than 112, but next year Stradivarius could take on the St Leger winner Kew Gardens in the top staying races, that colt currently rated his equal at 120. That might be the chance for Stradivarius to show us everything that he can do and for him to earn an even higher figure.

Magical success

Man of the moment John Gosden looked to have a strong hand in the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes, writes Mark Olley, saddling hot favourite Lah Ti Dar and last year’s third Coronet. However, that pair had to give best to Ballydoyle’s Magical.

Having won the race last year, Aidan O’Brien was mob handed in the latest renewal, saddling six of the eleven runners, including last year’s 119-rated winner Hydrangea. However, she has unfortunately been a shadow of herself this season and finished a well-held fifth.

Victory went to Magical who missed the early part of the season with a minor setback. This was her second try at 12f (down the field in the Arc last time) and she proved her stamina with a decisive win. I have a figure of 115 on this performance (her official rating will be published in Ireland) and that bears comparison with our historical standards of 116 for an average winner.

Coronet finished third in 2017 and went one better this time. She didn’t get an ideal run through the race but still managed to beat her better-fancied stablemate Lah Ti Dar. Her 113 rating is the same as she achieved in the race last year.

Hot favourite Lah Ti Dar was initially rated 115 after her ten-length defeat of Light of Joy in the Galtres Stakes at York. That wasn’t an easy performance to rate and that has now been revised down 1 lb to 114. Still inexperienced, she reportedly remains in training and it would be no surprise were she to progress further as a four-year-old.

Champion Sprinter?

Going in to this year’s Qipco British Champions Sprint no one horse had stamped their dominance on the 6f division this season, writes Stewart Copeland. Indeed, the previous five Group 1 races in Europe at the distance had produced five different winners.

Of them, only The Tin Man was in the fourteen-strong field, so it was no surprise the recent Haydock Sprint Cup winner was sent off favourite, given he boasts an excellent record at the Berkshire track, too.

However, it was not to be his day, and instead the honours went to the 3yo Sands of Mali, trained by Richard Fahey and given an excellent front-running ride by Paul Hanagan.

Having been below par since a somewhat unlucky second in the Commonwealth Cup at the track in June, he bounced back in great style and arguably put up a marginal career best effort in landing the spoils. Soon dictating the pace, he kicked on 2f out and always looked in command thereafter. The hand-timed sectionals I took suggest a slightly positive split for the last 2f, which emphasises the jockey got the fractions spot on. In a race which very few got into, a position on or near the pace looked an advantage.

In terms of assessing the race, the historical and pre-race standards both suggest a figure in the region of 117/118 for Sands of Mali, and I eventually settled on 118. This links in neatly with third-placed Donjuan Triumphant’s rating of 112. Like the winner, he was well placed on the pace throughout and was fully proven under the prevailing conditions. Splitting the pair was last year’s champion sprinter, Harry Angel. It’s been a frustrating season for all those concerned with him so it was good to see him run so well. A combination of the stiff track and soft going were probably never going to show him in his very best light, so he deserves plenty of credit for his effort in running to 115.

Reflecting on the season as a whole, there’s little to choose between the winners of the Group 1 6f sprints in Europe, though in my view U S Navy Flag’s victory in the July Cup just shades it at 119.

However, it’s unusual when a performance outside the very highest company tops all of them, but Harry Angel’s success in the Group 2 Duke of York arguably still rates as the best 6f performance this season. He achieved a rating of 123 on the Knavesmire – when carrying a Group-1 penalty – and it only adds to the frustration that we were unable to see him match that level during his luckless campaign.
 
The presence of Stormy Antarctic in fourth gives a major clue as to the level of the contest, that gelding having never run higher than 114 in twenty-three previous starts and I see no obvious reason as to why he should have improved on run number twenty-four.
Pity he didn't apply the same logic to Champion stakes 3rd, Subway Dancer, whom he chose to elevate 4/5 lbs above his previous best (in his 25th race) - for no other reason than to make Cracksman's win the best performance we have seen in Europe this season .
Ho hum!
 
reet hard said:
Pity he didn't apply the same logic to Champion stakes 3rd, Subway Dancer, whom he chose to elevate 4/5 lbs above his previous best (in his 25th race) - for no other reason than to make Cracksman's win the best performance we have seen in Europe this season .
Ho hum!
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I'm not a fan of DGH but he does explain his figure for Subway Dancer adequately in terms of last year's Prix Dollar. I'm not sure I entirely agree but I'm keeping an open mind for the time being.
 
Don't agree, DO.
What it demonstrates is his taking 2 horses with near-identical profiles, yet dissing one, and elevating t'other, thus tailoring the form to suit his own view of the outcome.
Everyone does that to some degree, but not all are given to basing rash statments,viz; "the best performance we have seen in Europe this season" on such perverse logic.
 
As I say, reet, I'm not saying I agree entirely with him either but he's merely suggesting SD did something he'd done before. I'm not sure either that he's setting out to manufacture a status for Cracksman. Cracksman could have run below his best and still emerged with the best performance in Europe this season. Lets face it, I could carry you and be in with a shout of putting up the best performance in Europe this season. It has been a largely moderate season.
 
From weekend just gone

Baron Alco +6 (152) Bun Doran +9 (147) Count Meribel +5 (148) First Assignment +13 (143) Frodon +3 (164) Rock The Kasbah +6 (153) Speedo Boy +6 (124)

First Assignment will carry a 5lbs penalty if running at Haydock on Saturday
 
I'd say four of those will still be on winning marks. It'll be interesting to see if their respective trainers make hay or preserve for March.
 
It looks like, as Slim suggested, the handicapper is going easy with the Mackeson because so few finished but he's really let RTK off lightly although I'm saying that before I crunch the numbers. I haven't read the blog yet (been out all day) but will try to catch up with it.
 
The November Meeting | Handicappers Blog
20 Nov 18

All-the-way success for Baron Alco
The Grade 3 BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase is the highlight of Cheltenham’s November Meeting. This year it provided a dramatic race but left us with lots of unanswered questions, as Michael Harris explains…

Baron Alco had been off the track for over eighteen months before his previous run at Chepstow, when he was narrowly defeated by Charbel having adopted his usual front-running tactics. He was raised 4 lb for that run, taking him to the 146 he finished second off at the Cheltenham Festival back in 2017. He set his stall out again early on in the BetVictor, jumping well out in front, and that proved the place to be with lots of trouble behind the leaders.

Baron Alco kicked clear off the home turn and always looked like having enough to hold off Frodon, who had also been prominent from the outset. I felt the two-length winning margin was worth 3 lb and Baron Alco is up 6 lb to a career-high 152 as a result.

He will likely next be back for the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap on December 15[SUP]th[/SUP], a race which may have a similar shape and should give us a better idea of the strength of this form. Only six of the 18 runners completed the race and most of the horses that failed to complete departed too early in the race to judge how they would have fared.

Frodon had come into the race after a win in the Grade 2 Old Roan Handicap Chase at Aintree and produced another good run in defeat. He was 164 after a seventeen-length success at Cheltenham in January and a 3 lb rise for this takes him back to that level. The other placed horses, Guitar Pete (remains 137) and Mister Whitaker (remains 152) both arrived in form but neither were best placed to mount a serious challenge given how the race unfolded.

National clues?

Two potential 2019 Randox Grand National entries were successful at Cheltenham on Saturday, writes Martin Greenwood.

Rock The Kasbah, like many from his stable this season, returned to his very best by scoring in the long-distance handicap, possibly dossing late but always holding his rivals, including the returning Coneygree who showed he is no back number at the age of 11 in finishing third off a mark of 160.

Rock The Kasbah had previously won three times over fences, all at Chepstow, and his new mark of 153 will definitely guarantee a run should connections choose to go down the National route.
Conversely Ibis du Rheu scored for the first time over the larger obstacles when beating the bold-jumping Theatre Territory and the slightly disappointing hotpot The Worlds End in the novice around half an hour earlier.

Ibis du Rheu was having his eighth race as a chaser, most of them in handicaps, and he was another returning to his best (147). Given the bottom weight in the 2018 National was 142, then Ibis du Rheu would be a likely runner if his rating stays roughly the same between now and February when the weights are compiled. Theatre Territory will remain on a mark of 132 as I have to ignore his 139 performance in this race due to the restrictions placed on non-winners in novice chases, while The Worlds End is worth another chance to prove he will be a force to be reckoned with in the very best staying novice chases this season.


Top Marks

There were a couple of noteworthy performances in the staying hurdle division on the first two days of the November Meeting, writes Andrew Mealor….

First up on Friday was Coolanly’s smooth success in the Grade 2 Ballymore Hyde Novices’ Hurdle over twenty-one furlongs. Fergal O’Brien’s charge was thrown in at the deep end last term after a debut second at Leicester, tackling Grade 1 company on his two subsequent runs and managing a highly creditable fifth in the Top Novices’ at Aintree. Coolanly was seemingly well fancied when falling early on in the Persian War on his reappearance (sent off favourite) and this performance strongly suggests he’s an improved performer this season.

In recent times it’s usually taken a performance in the mid-140s to win the Hyde, though race standards (which take into account not only past performances in the race but also the margins between the principals in the latest renewal) suggest slightly lower. I have gone with the latter view for now in allotting Coolanly a new mark of 141, and that broadly ties in with what runner-up Pym (remains on 138) achieved when second in a good-quality novice at Ascot on his previous run.

The Irish-trained outsider Percy Veer (139) looked to have his work cut out under a penalty and ran a cracker in third. Bar a blip the time before, he’s been very progressive since late-summer and could have been in the high-130s on a line through the highly-promising Dinons, whom he wasn’t far behind when falling at the last at Killarney in August.

Persian War runner-up Double Treasure set the standard pre race on a mark of 140 but he clearly wasn’t right and was pulled up before the sixth, connections later reporting a breathing problem.
Moving on twenty-four hours and it was Ian Williams who made the headlines, saddling both Speedo Boy and First Assignment to success in the two staying handicaps on Saturday’s card.

In truth, the listed contest won by the latter didn’t look the strongest of races by Cheltenham standards but First Assignment still took the field apart with some ease on his first try at three miles, scooting home by nine lengths. He’ll be 13 lb higher (143) when his new mark kicks in but before then connections will surely be tempted by a crack at Saturday’s valuable staying handicap at Haydock. That race is an early-closing handicap, so First Assignment will race off his previous mark of 130 plus a 5-lb penalty, meaning he’ll be 8 lb well in.

Juveniles taking shape

Despite the lack of recent rain, the Grade 2 JCB Prestbury Hurdle, the first recognised trial for the March juvenile crown, looked just about up to standard, writes David Dickinson…

With the best British form going into the race, the penalised pair Quel Destin and Cracker Factory were able to fight out the finish, though that may not have been the case had French import Never Adapt been more amenable to restraint. She ruined her chance by pulling too hard but still did enough to suggest she has a pretty serious engine. Quel Destin’s new rating of 141 is only a pound below the ten-year average for winners of this race.

Where this race may differ from previous renewals is the bold showing of talented summer jumper Cracker Factory (139), who confirmed that he remains near the top of the pecking order of this season’s juveniles. As well as being won by Defi du Seuil a couple of years ago, the race has also seen the likes of Hargam, Guitar Pete and Grandouet compete in recent times. Quite whether any of these will be quite up to that class is open to debate.
 
Note the words:

Theatre Territory will remain on a mark of 132 as I have to ignore his 139 performance in this race due to the restrictions placed on non-winners in novice chases,
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The handicapper is basically acknowledging that Theatre Territory will be 7lbs well-in (on top of however well-handicapped she already was) the next time she runs in a handicap.

This probably won't appear in the RP Ratings box the way horses due to be raised in future are so they should remained under the radar to many punters and maybe even RP writers (the lazy ones at any rate) who don't check these things.

Keep her in mind.
 
First Assignment runs tomorrow under a penalty. Will hose up again and 6/4 right now. Will be odds on tomorrow. I've lumped on.
 
According to Tom Lacey's recent blog he challenged a handicap mark awarded to a horse (Polydora) and the handicapper replied that the horse was a well-backed 15/8f who was clear of all but one other horse. Does the handicapper take prices into account then, or do any of you who keep your own figures ?
 
I suspect it's more a case of the handicapper checking back through the horse's form in order to construct an appropriate reply to the challenge. It looks like he's merely making a point that if the horse wasn't well handicapped it wouldn't have been such a short price. I don't think the handicapper often, if ever in the normal course of assessment, takes account of prices.

I, however, sometimes do. If a horse is rated, say, 140 and is backed into 2/1f but falls or unseats at some point in the race before the business end, I might rate the horse as a potential winner or runner up (say 145-150) and give it a notional mark based on that. It's entirely subjective in that instance and I usually only do it 'just to see' where the horse might figure in my ratings for its next races. It's entirely unorthodox, of course, but occasionally it can pay off.
 
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The handicappers do, occasionally, take account of sp's, and the finishing order of the rest of the field - often a valid tool for assessing the merit of the form as a whole.
In Polyydora's case, he may have taken the view that ignored the 2nd (PTP horse; first run over regulation fences) and reckoned the rest of the field finished pretty much where the market suggested they should.
Brave call, imo, as distances are often exaggerated on such ground.
 
Christmas Handicappers Blog
02 Jan 19

Clantastic

The 2018 renewal of the 32Red King George VI Chase at Kempton looked a strong affair with several interesting runners, writes Martin Greenwood, but in event the race fell apart somewhat with mid-race carnage and disappointments rendering the result probably less informative than it could have been.

However, that shouldn’t take anything away from Clan des Obeaux who was unexposed over staying trips. The 2016 winner Thistlecrack was the only one to make a race of it in the closing stages but Clan des Obeaux always seemed to have his measure and went on to beat that rival by a length and a half, with seemingly something left in the tank.

Historical standards suggest the winner should be in the low 170s, and allied to the fact that Thistlecrack was rated 170 when successful two years ago, I am happy to rate Clan des Obeaux 173, with the promise of more to come.

That pair gave Bristol de Mai’s Haydock win a boost, though the runner-up that day, 2018 Gold Cup winner Native River, was obviously a disappointment of sorts, though it seems likely that this sharper test of stamina wasn’t in his favour and he did plug on having been off the bridle from an early stage.

Following collateral movements to the Haydock race, we currently have both Clan des Obeaux and Bristol de Mai heading the best staying chase performances of 18/19 on 173. Both Native River, and perhaps even the amiss Might Bite, still have time to show their credentials before the 2019 Gold Cup.

The Irish equivalent of the King George was the Savills Chase at Leopardstown, and similarly to Kempton there was an unsatisfactory feel to the race and some disappointments, chief among them Road to Respect (though he stumbled badly around 3 out). The whole field raced bunched more or less the whole way and only the unexposed winner, Kemboy, managed to put any meaningful distance between himself and the rest as he scooted away in impressive style. Like Clan des Obeaux, this is clearly a personal best for Kemboy who is now rated 167, and he also looks to have further progress in him.

We were also treated to two good novice staying chases at the same two courses. At Kempton Star mare La Bague Au Roi needed virtually all of her 7-lb sex allowance to prevail in a hot 32Red Kauto Star Novices’ Chase, jumping superbly and rallying gamely to deny Topofthegame in a race in which both Bags Groove and The Worlds End were major disappointments. Given La Bague Au Roi was top rated going in, she is left on 150, while Topofthegame and the staying-on Santini have both been edged up 1 lb to 155 and 153 respectively. The last-named left the strong impression that a more galloping test will see him in a better light.

Rated in the same ballpark is Delta Work (154), who is the best staying novice chaser in Ireland at the minute. He had the measure of Mortal when that horse ploughed through the last in the Neville Hotels Novices’ Chase at Leopardstown. All things considered the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival is already looking a very tasty affair.
Blue day for Buveur punters

Just as the Fighting Fifth had seemed to establish the pecking order for the Unibet Champion Hurdle, the Christmas period has done a fair bit to muddy the waters, writes David Dickinson…

Kempton’s Unibet Christmas Hurdle was a tremendous spectacle for all except those who had backed the favourite at prohibitive odds. It saw a masterful stalking ride by Nico de Boinville on Verdana Blue, picking stablemate’s Buveur d’Air’s pocket in the shadow of the post. Speed from the last was the key, with Verdana Blue getting from the last to the line about a third of a second faster than her highly able stable-companion Mister Fisher had managed in a more slowly-run race earlier in the card.

I don’t think the race played to Buveur d’Air’s strengths, but We Have a Dream’s recent Cheltenham run showed Verdana Blue’s win in the Elite hurdle in a better light (the level of that race has now been raised), and she has been awarded a new mark of 157 (up 5 lbs). With her sex allowance she is clearly capable of being a factor come Cheltenham in March.

I suppose with Buveur d’Air being outspeeded at Kempton, that Samcro, who he readily outpaced at Newcastle in the Fighting Fifth, was found out in what developed into a speed test at Leopardstown three days later should not have been such a shock, though to many it was.

Quite what to make of that Ryanair Hurdle form is open to debate. Surely Tombstone is somewhat flattered by the soft lead but the winner, Sharjah, is improving and clearly very decent. The way the race developed didn’t play to Supasundae’s strengths but he ran a blinder in second. Both should be on any list of Champion Hurdle contenders and I personally wouldn’t write off Samcro yet in a truly-run race or Melon, who made a bad mistake here on his comeback run.

The juvenile hurdle scene became a little clearer over the festive period, on this side of the water at least. Our best two juveniles (I say ‘ours’, though they both began their hurdling careers in France) had a fine battle in the Grade 1 Coral Finale Hurdle at Chepstow, where Quel Destin (148) just edged out Adjali (147).

Altior maintains stranglehold on two-mile division

The two-mile chasers took centre stage at Kempton last Thursday and the star of the division successfully strutted his stuff in the Grade 2 Unibet Desert Orchid Chase, writes Chris Nash…

Altior has never been beaten over hurdles or fences and maintained that record with a performance that oozed class. On occasions he can hit a flat spot in his races and briefly look in a bit of trouble but there was none of that this day as he travelled and jumped beautifully throughout. Altior could be called the winner a long way from home and eventually coasted across the line 19 lengths clear of Diego Du Charmil, to whom he was conceding 3 lb.

The runner-up had won a Grade 1 novice chase at Aintree last April and arrived at Kempton rated 156 – the bare mathematics of his winning margin suggest that Altior was at least 22 lb superior to him. Altior arrived rated 175 and his performance was one that you could attach almost any figure to, but I decided to go with 175 for this effort and leave his official rating unchanged. Not only does this confirm his total dominance of the two-mile division (Un De Sceaux is next best with a mark of 168), but it also rates the best chase performance of this season overall so far, 2 lb ahead of Bristol De Mai and Clan Des Obeaux.

Footpad won the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham last season and was viewed as a potential challenger to Altior this season. He lined up in the Grade 1 “Sugar Paddy” Chase at Leopardstown on Thursday where he started as the even money favourite. He looked good for much of the contest, led going to the last, winged that fence and went maybe three lengths clear on the run-in before collared close home by Simply Ned.

The latter had been awarded the 2017 renewal of this race in the Stewards’ room but needed no such help this time around and always seems to run well in this event. For all he is a really admirable horse his victory doesn’t mark this down as vintage form. I gave Simply Ned a figure of 160 for this which has Footpad running to 159. That is below his peak of last year (166 at Cheltenham) and leaves him with plenty of improvement to find if he is to topple Altior come March.

The two-mile novices had their chance to shine in the 32Red.com Wayward Lad Chase at Kempton. Kalashnikov was one of the leading novice hurdlers last season and had an end of season rating of 152 – he started favourite for this contest but it was Dynamite Dollars who came out on top. He’d won the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novice Chase last time out so had to carry a penalty in this Grade 2 contest but it proved no barrier to success as he gave Kalashnikov 5 lb and a one and a quarter length beating. I’ve rated this effort at 155 and it currently stands as the leading novice performance in the two-mile division. Obviously the novice form is still in its formative stages but having won two graded contests already there is little doubt that Dynamite Dollar is currently a leading candidate for the Arkle.

It’s all in the name

The aptly-named Champ made a quick breakthrough at Grade 1 level in the Betway Challow Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday, writes Andrew Mealor…
The latest Challow Hurdle looked an up-to-scratch renewal beforehand with all of the seven runners to line up having looked promising in the embryonic stages of their hurdling career – and each of the septet came in on the back of a win. However, Champ very much stood out on paper having already shown himself a smart novice when running away with a competitive handicap over the same course and distance four weeks previously.
Nicky Henderson’s charge had achieved a rating of 150 that day, a figure that would have been good enough to have won all but one of the previous 16 renewals of the Challow this century, and he didn’t let his supporters down with a ready success, racing freely once again but soon asserting once his rider got a bit more serious after the last.
The Challow has proven a very stable race down the years in terms of the level of the principals, lending weight and confidence to historical comparisons, and standards point to a figure in the mid-140s for Champ’s performance here. That ties in fine with what third-placed Kateson (141) had achieved when landing a novice at the track in late-November. That pair were split by Getaway Trump (up 4 lb to 142) who travelled at least as well as the winner and likely has further improvement in him.

Champ remains unchanged on 150, and that sort of figure will have him very much in the picture in the Baring Bingham, his likely Festival target.
Finally, just a quick mention for the Ascot’s pre-Christmas highlight, the Grade 1 Long Walk hurdle. Some of the lustre was taken away from the race with the early departure of 2017 winner Sam Spinner and the mid-race fall of Unowhatimeanharry, and a winning rating of 156 for Paisley Park is on the low side historically, with the proximity in sixth of Garo de Juilley (beaten off 138 in a handicap the time before) casting further doubts on the form. Take nothing away from the winner though, who is unbeaten this season and is clearly a very progressive young stayer
 
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