The thoughts of the handicappers.

granger said:
Waiting to see what Timeform come up with

174+ seems reasonable.

Exciting horse for sure but still plenty to prove
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Fox Norton is rated 166 but he jumped left at a fair proportion of his fences. I'd have him running to 158 Saturday which would make 176 for Cyrname about right.
 
Can someone help Miss Thicky here with something? A horse very dear to my heart is running tomorrow, the SP website have him at OR 117, the RP site has him as RPR 127 and TS of 72. Talking to a friend at the weekend, he said he was rated 117 -the horse obviously, so what do the RP figures mean? This is largely 'never bothered to be interested' big gap in my knowledge as most of the time it is truly meaningless to me as a race goer, I hardly bet and go on ' do I really like the look of that' as a guide ( thank you Brio Conti and Worthy Farm on Saturday- can't remember the last time I had two bets in the same decade, but pays for petrol to Wetherby tomorrow :) ) Thank you in advance for sympathetic answers and understanding :)
 
117 is the rating that the official handicapper has given him.

127 is the top rating that the Racing Post handicapper has given him.

The two are nominally on the same scale but RP ratings tend to be a few pounds higher, except in the case of juveniles where they tend to be a bit lower for some reason.
 
simmo said:
117 is the rating that the official handicapper has given him.

127 is the top rating that the Racing Post handicapper has given him.

The two are nominally on the same scale but RP ratings tend to be a few pounds higher, except in the case of juveniles where they tend to be a bit lower for some reason.
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Thank you. Ssssooo 117 is his actual official rating? What is the 72 please?
 
Diamond Geezer said:
A bit of bedtime reading :whistle:

https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/topspeed-ratings-calculated/
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See I start reading this and it's like being back in Physics class at school. She may as well have been saying la la la la la la la la........
Or geometry in maths. And I was good at Maths but why do I need to know that that angle equals that angle if a circle is wrapped round it? How do anyone know that? Because you can't - you're just making that up to give something an explanation. :)
I'll try again when it's earlier in the day, but if his (assuming it's a man) is so wildly different from official handicapper, why does he bother and does anyone take any notice?
 
I use it as a rough indicator that a horse might have more in hand than the official handicapper has allowed for. Rightly or wrongly - I know there are others on here who would disagree with that use.

RPR that is. I don't pay any attention to topspeed.
 
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Would 72 to 127 be a massive difference though? Or even 72 to 117? If he is using speed as a factor tho, his, the horse, last two hurdle races have been run at a dawdle, so is that why there is such a difference in the figures?
 
G-G said:
Would 72 to 127 be a massive difference though? Or even 72 to 117? If he is using speed as a factor tho, his, the horse, last two hurdle races have been run at a dawdle, so is that why there is such a difference in the figures?
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Yes that would be precisely the cause of such a discrepancy. 9/1 worth an each way dabble tomorrow?
 
Wellllllll I never bet on any of the 'family'. I think it's a big ask on paper against the O'Brien horse but you have to have a go. He always is very willing and tries. Really didn't like the ground last time and the shoe coming off didn't help - was never comfortable. Personally I was praying they would go for the Donny entry on Wednesday as a ) a qualifier for a race 'down south' so people could come and see him who otherwise can't get there b) I had other things to do tomorrow and c) it's nearer for me! Ground should be better tomorrow. He needs to settle better, but he is still learning. He's done far more than I could have dreamt of so far. As long as he comes home safe is the main thing. Thank you for the answers and your patience :)
 
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Topspeed works to an entirely different set of assessment criteria and ratings scale.

A rating of 72 simply means that the horse, for whatever reason, has not yet done a great deal based on the clock.

It's a bit like Usain Bolt taking on rank amateurs. He might not have to break out of a jog to beat them therefore wouldn't need to run faster than 13 seconds for the 100m. Women can run faster but you wouldn't fancy any of them to beat Bolt.

It's all relative to the circumstances of the race.

A bit simplistic and no patronising intended, G_G.

Oh and don't forget, a fast horse can run slow times but a slow horse can't run fast times.
 
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Cyrname up 13 to 178

others of note

Brio Conti +5 146
Clan Des Obeaux 173
Quel Destin 146
Magic Saint +7 149
Grand Sancy +9 152
Worthy Farm +7 130
Al Dancer +11 152
Mister Malarky +6 148
Shades Of Midnight +7 148
Lisnagar Oscar +12 145
Glen Forsa +12 150
Robinsfirth +6 154
 
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G-G said:
Wellllllll I never bet on any of the 'family'. I think it's a big ask on paper against the O'Brien horse but you have to have a go. He always is very willing and tries. Really didn't like the ground last time and the shoe coming off didn't help - was never comfortable. Personally I was praying they would go for the Donny entry on Wednesday as a ) a qualifier for a race 'down south' so people could come and see him who otherwise can't get there b) I had other things to do tomorrow and c) it's nearer for me! Ground should be better tomorrow. He needs to settle better, but he is still learning. He's done far more than I could have dreamt of so far. As long as he comes home safe is the main thing. Thank you for the answers and your patience :)
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I think people have more or less covered your original questions all I would say is I wouldn't pay too much attention to the ratings as a novice hurdler as it should be more about finding what they are good at. If you take a look at a horse called Lord Napier who was bumbling along on similar marks for a while and then they stepped him up in trip and found thats what suits he ran a cracker in the Lanzarote at Kempton before getting a proper stamina test at Sandown when the ground was a bit softer he's gone up 15lb very quickly because they've now found that he's a better stayer. My guess would be with a horse like him he's not done yet I'd hazard a guess that he'd run a big race in the Coral cup if the ground went soft he could possibly win it if not then he'd probably place and get raised a few more pounds. But he could then find further improvement when stepped up to 3 mile and good end up a very good sort. The point being if they'd have kept him racing at 2 mile he'd have never of achieved these ratings.

For an idiot like me why if you think your horse needs to settle do they persist at longer trips and not drop back to 2 mile. If you were to look at his top speed figures not that there is much difference but his best figure came in his bumper behind Windsor Avenue when he was third. Obviously if you looked at your horses form and he's finished 212 in hurdles at around 2 and a half mile then you may be thinking that's about the right trip for him. If you look at what Windsor avenue has done since his bumper you just bumped into a pretty good one there. Personally if your horse struggles to settle today and doesn't see the trip out to well I'd be tempted to give him a spin at the minimum trip again and make a bit of use of him just to see how goes, can't harm to try.

Admittedly I don't know bugger all about the horsey side of the game I just crunch the numbers and watch the visuals although admittedly I haven't watched any of your fellas efforts yet but I might take an interest now when I get chance.
 
Thanks Danny -on my phone in O&T so forgive any spelling errors: against Windsor Avenue, only his second run and absolutely hated the ground. One of the owners thinks'he has an engine', the first hurdle at Sedgefield caught them by surprise as really was an educational run so think thats why they sticking with 2m 3 ish. Personally I don't think he's got the speed for 2 miles even given who his sire is. He is very buzzy before race - has to come in to paddock at last possible moment. Not sure where that comes from as he had always been the most laid back chilled out soul, but his dam was a little like that at the races but more because of uncertain of her surroundings. Carries his head a bit high too - they did talk about trying something to help that but not sure they have had time to try it. Jockey rides him at home most days and knows him so hopefully he's learning to calm down. Wish I could say the same about myself! Torturious watching him. Why do we do it???? :)
 
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Cyrname now the top rated jumps horse here. Reckon he'd do Altior over 2.5 right handed? I know I'd be on him, that was phenomenal on Saturday.
 
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